"Solid" Patriot Defense Is 32nd on 3rd Down

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

You don't care that the team is winning? Right.

Look, all I am saying is that is a troubling stat and can't sit well with the coaching staff, obviously.

Of couse I like wins, albeit SD was a gift wrapped win. We played great against the Ravens. I am quite confident we can beat the jets in NY or Foxboro. I think Brady is playing great. I like our offensive, talented versatile tight ends and good play from our running back position. Love the way Woody is playing. Mayo and Chung continue to be playing solid.

All I am saying is as a team defense, it would be nice to move up that list and if we continue pumping out these numbers in week 14, 15 etc, then it's too late.

Most times Championship teams hit the playoffs with some steam. Last year's loss to the ravens was embarassing.

We need improved play from our defense.

YES i understand we are 5-1. I get that part. I get it. I understand.

We are only half way in so there is a lot of time to see improved play out of this group and I as much as any fan would love to have that confidence back we had on third down with previous versions of this team.

You don't see that sense of urgency from this defense...

 

[ausbacker]

Look, all I am saying is that is a troubling stat and can't sit well with the coaching staff, obviously.

Of couse I like wins, albeit SD was a gift wrapped win. We played great against the Ravens. I am quite confident we can beat the jets in NY or Foxboro. I think Brady is playing great. I like our offensive, talented versatile tight ends and good play from our running back position. Love the way Woody is playing. Mayo and Chung continue to be playing solid.

All I am saying is as a team defense, it would be nice to move up that list and if we continue pumping out these numbers in week 14, 15 etc, then it's too late.

Most times Championship teams hit the playoffs with some steam. Last year's loss to the ravens was embarassing.

We need improved play from our defense.

YES i understand we are 5-1. I get that part. I get it. I understand.

We are only half way in so there is a lot of time to see improved play out of this group and I as much as any fan would love to have that confidence back we had on third down with previous versions of this team.

You don't see that sense of urgency from this defense...

Do you concede that you're listing all the reasons that make the 5-1 record all the more impressive given the scope for improvement in this side then?

This young side is learning on the job and they're winning whilst doing it. Take in how scary a concept that is for the rest of the NFL.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Do you concede that you're listing all the reasons that make the 5-1 record all the more impressive given the scope for improvement in this side then?

This young side is learning on the job and they're winning whilst doing it. Take in how scary a concept that is for the rest of the NFL.

I have stated my opinion and so be it, they are like a-holes everyone has one..., so I will leave it at yes I do agree that a 5-1 record, all things considered, is good.

But who wants to be good?

 

[neuronet]

Good stuff in this thread, especially the data.

Those saying that it is no big deal to be worst in the league on third down, just because we are 5-1 are idiots. I guarantee BB and company are agonizing over this, working with the secondary. We will get embarassed soon by this, and it will KILL us in the postseason. Wins in the regular season are good, but I'd give up that 16-0 regular season in a heartbeat if it meant we won the SB.

 

[ausbacker]

I have stated my opinion and so be it, they are like a-holes everyone has one..., so I will leave it at yes I do agree that a 5-1 record, all things considered, is good.

But who wants to be good?

Good stuff in this thread, especially the data.

Those saying that it is no big deal to be worst in the league on third down, just because we are 5-1 are idiots. I guarantee BB and company are agonizing over this, working with the secondary. We will get embarassed soon by this, and it will KILL us in the postseason. Wins in the regular season are good, but I'd give up that 16-0 regular season in a heartbeat if it meant we won the SB.

I'm not concerned with the statistical data because I know that BB will be working his butt off teaching the side how to improve in these core areas.

As I mentioned, there's so much scope for improvement in this side that it's scary. The 2012 Patriots are going to be monolithic.

 

[patfanken]

I'd like to thank all those who provided the various stats breakdowns in the thread. As someone who loves to read and analyze stats, but hates to look them up, I really appreciate it.

That being said, there is a lot to be said for both positions taken on this thread. Those ARE frightening stats. But its hard to argue the results. I know there isn't anyone here who would trade SD's offensive and defensive stats, for their record.

Since I'm usually one who sees the upside of things, why don't we put this in some kind of perspective. After Boddin and Ty Warren went down, and Butler slipped and Wheatly couldn't get off the injured list, is anyone really surprised about the early season defensive stats. I shouldn't think so.

I thought it was pretty much conventional wisdom that the defense would start slow, and we'd all hope that by the last third of the season, it would start to get better in time for the playoffs, where the Jets showed last year, anything can happen.

What IS surprising is that our offense suddenly is kind of in a similar situation. Its an offense in transition. Its an offense that is going to take a few weeks to find it self.

AND what is the most surprising is that, despite the fact that the best is yet to come for this team for BOTH the offense and defense; NO ONE in the NFL has a better record than we do.

Think about that....and the poor stats won't bother you.....as much

 

[pencilneckgeek]

By Game
Cincy:8-15 53.33%
Jets: 6-13 46.15%
Buff: 5-10 50%
Mia: 10-15 66.67%
Balt: 5-16 31.25%
SD: 7-15 46.67%
Overall: 41-84 48.80%

4th downs, cincy 3-3, jets 1-1, Miami 0-1, SD 1-1
Overall 4th down 5-6 83.33%

Not much of a trend there. Slightly downward, but not statistically significant yet. I would note that the efficiency is worse for games where the Pats had a nice lead and were therefore in prevent (not suprising).

Got the third and long stats for those games?

 

[Metaphors]

In the last 3 games against teams with playoff aspirations (2 on the road), the Pats have given up on average 2 TD drives and 1-2 FG drives per game. The Pats D is also forcing 2-3 turnovers per game. The D has kept the big plays to a minimum (long play of under 30 yds, only 2-3 plays of 20+ per game, none over 40) and in order to score teams have generally had to convert 4-5 first downs. They would also get 2-3 sacks per game and give up under 100 yards rushing.

If I told you on October 1st that you could have the above results on D during the upcoming @MIA/BAL/@SD stretch, would you have taken it? Of course you would.

Belichick is protecting his young defense and giving them an environment where they can learn and grow without getting discouraged. They are losing a good amount of battles, but are winning their fair share as well. The bottom line is that the Pats D is keeping the opposing offense (and the game in general) under enough control that the offense should be good enough to win the game. Over time, the defense should be able to do a little more schematically, but for now they definitely seem to be doing what is needed.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Not much of a trend there. Slightly downward, but not statistically significant yet. I would note that the efficiency is worse for games where the Pats had a nice lead and were therefore in prevent (not suprising).

Got the third and long stats for those games?

Browse the earlier pages in this thread.

 

[lamafist]

Counterintuitively, being disproportionally worse on third downs than 1st and 2nd is actually an encouraging sign for the Pats' defense from here on out. It's all about regression towards the mean.

So far, the Patriots' defense has faced 84 third downs... but that makes up only one tenth of the more than 823 snaps the defense has been on the field.

In truth, there's little evidence to suggest that teams are consistently better or worse on third down than they are other downs -- it's just a predicable result of the statistical noise you see when you chop the sample size by 90%. As the sample size grows, you start to see that a unit will play about as well on 3rd down as it does on 1st and 2nd.

The trick, however is that success on third down has a disproportionate affect on the outcome of a game. That one-tenth of the snaps the defense plays are the most crucial plays of the game. A mediocre defense can overachieve if it happens to have its best performance on third downs. A good defense can look ineffective if they perform disproportionally poorly on 3rd down.

Because we're talking about a sample-size of only 10% of total snaps, it can take all of a season or two of snaps to count on seeing a regression to the mean. This makes third-down performance a good predictor of which units will "bounce back" or "decline" the next season -- if a defense has been unusually lucky to play better on third down, you can expect to see some decline as the sample size gets larger. If the defense has been unusually unlucky to play worse on third downs than 1st and 2nd, you can predict to see some improvement as the sample size gets larger, and they "regress towards the mean."

 

[BPF]

Chung doesn't play nickel.. that's been Wilhite in the slot.

The Pats have been playing three S nickel all year, more before Page was hurt. They also played it last year as well. Here's the players: Patrick Chung, Brandon Meriweather, Jarrad Page, Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington. When Page was got hurt it's been some Wilhite and some Sanders.

 

[BPF]

Oh by the way, how does everyone like the D today? Not bad!!

 

[crowell33]

Oh by the way, how does everyone like the D today? Not bad!!

The defensive haters have certainly been called out after the Miami game, 4th quarter and OT efforts against Baltimore, San Diego and now the Vikings.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Sobering indeed.

Wonder how those who dismiss the 3rd down stat as meaningless will comment about this. Maybe point to the D of the previous 20 SB winners and try to prove that it is not as high as 90%?

Again, it's not a meaningless stat. It's a vastly overrated stat. This stat in the yards gained/allowed and TOP world.

Obviously a defense has to stop an offense on 3rd. If they never did, the offense would always score.

What you are missing is the trend in the league is bend and not break.

It's the mediot clowns who push the "bring the house" defense.

 

[Metaphors]

Sorry for quoting my own post...

In the last 3 games against teams with playoff aspirations (2 on the road), the Pats have given up on average 2 TD drives and 1-2 FG drives per game.

Check.

The Pats D is also forcing 2-3 turnovers per game.

Not quite. Only 1 today...but still a +1 in the turnover battle.

The D has kept the big plays to a minimum (long play of under 30 yds,

Ignoring the final drive just running out the clock, long play was 30 yds to Harvin.

only 2-3 plays of 20+ per game,

Again ignoring the final drive, gave up 4 plays of 20+.

none over 40)

Check.

and in order to score teams have generally had to convert 4-5 first downs.

Vikings 3 scoring drives required 6, 3 and 5 first downs.

They would also get 2-3 sacks per game

Only 1 sack, but 2 intentional grounding penalties which are effectively the same result.

and give up under 100 yards rushing.

For as well as Peterson ran, he only got 92 yards. Take away Jackson's meaningless scramble late and those are the only yards the Pats gave up on the ground.

The Pats just completed the stretch (@MIA, BAL, @SD, MIN) that everyone pointed to when the schedule came out. The defense hasn't been spectacular but (as noted above) they have been remarkably consistent. The youngsters are growing up fast and contributions from unexpected places (Arrington, Deaderick, Fletcher, Brown, etc) have allowed the Pats to field a fresher, energized lineup late in games.

With reasonably good health the rest of the way, this defense will be better in January than they are today. As the calender shifts to November and only Detroit remaining as a weather-neutral game, I think the strong, physical nature of this defense will serve the team well.

 

[WhoaDirty]

Apologies if this was mentioned in the thread already, but one thing those stats don't highlight is *when* those 3rd down conversions are taking place. If it's on the opponent's half of the field, it's not near the importance if it is happening on the Pats' half of the field. That said, it'd sure be nice to see the Pats improve that overall % improve dramatically over the rest of the season.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Again, it's not a meaningless stat. It's a vastly overrated stat. This stat in the yards gained/allowed and TOP world.

Obviously a defense has to stop an offense on 3rd. If they never did, the offense would always score.

What you are missing is the trend in the league is bend and not break.

It's the mediot clowns who push the "bring the house" defense.

Noted that you consider it as a vastly over-rated stat.

Bend-not-break - haven't we seen that for the last four years that make average QBs look like studs against us? (I don't care as long as we get the W.)

And that's the trend in the league? hmm...I don't believe it but I don't have the data to back it.

From what you say, the teams that currently have a strong D will rank high in terms of least TDs allowed but also high in stats such as allowing 3rd down completions, allowing opposing QBs great ratings etc. Is that right?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Noted that you consider it as a vastly over-rated stat.

Bend-not-break - haven't we seen that for the last four years that make average QBs look like studs against us? (I don't care as long as we get the W.)

And that's the trend in the league? hmm...I don't believe it but I don't have the data to back it.

From what you say, the teams that currently have a strong D will rank high in terms of least TDs allowed but also high in stats such as allowing 3rd down completions, allowing opposing QBs great ratings etc. Is that right?

Why don't you believe it?

Look at all the 400+ yard passing games in the league and see if they win.

3rd down conversion tells us something, it just doesn't correlate to meaning in "situational football".

The main stat I look at is TD's surrendered on long drives (started beyond FG range). The reality is the ideal end of a drive for the defense should be the offense attempting a 50+ yard FG.

Here is a homework assignment.

Look at 3rd down conversion in the first half of our games vs the second half.

That's where you see situational football.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Why don't you believe it?

Look at all the 400+ yard passing games in the league and see if they win.

3rd down conversion tells us something, it just doesn't correlate to meaning in "situational football".

The main stat I look at is TD's surrendered on long drives (started beyond FG range). The reality is the ideal end of a drive for the defense should be the offense attempting a 50+ yard FG.

Here is a homework assignment.

Look at 3rd down conversion in the first half of our games vs the second half.

That's where you see situational football.

Done, although I have no idea what you are trying to teach about about 'situational football' using these #s. Better one IMO, are the quarterly ones that compare the 3rd down eff with the scores at that point to show who was at lead and how much the lead was. That is situational football.

In any case, here you go (courtesy of the earlier posts ):

=============
Opponent 3rd down conversion
First half 17/41 ……41.4%
second half 24/43…..55.8%
=============

Now, assignment for you (you can do it at work ): give me the stats of the current strong D teams to illustrate your trend in the league w.r.t bend-not-break.

Merci!

 

[ATippett56]

If the Patriots defense can eliminate some of the mental mistakes, it would provide more chances for the Patriots offense. Case in point, the Gary Guyton helmet-to-helmet hit on Favre to extend the drive deep in Patriots territory at the end of the first quarter. In addition, the Brandon Meriweather pass interference call on Randy Moss to extend the drive deep in Patriots territory during the fourth quarter. Why even bother calling a cornerback blitz by Arrington on that play?