Denver gives me hope......

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

He's on pace for 1400 yards at a 3.8 ypc clip. Thats not good by any means.

3.8 ypc in today's NFL isn't very good. In fact, running 4.0 ypc is just average.

 

[BradyFTW!]

AP right now is the best back in the league. Anyone with eyes can see that. Chris is taking big hits while not breaking off his long runs. The little guy is breaking down. They're slowing him down, is that better?

And AP got shut down by the Saints, what's your point? If anything he's just further proof that everyone gets shut down sometimes; it's all matchups at this point, wait a few weeks and we'll see. The defenses that CJ faces are also significantly more dedicated to stopping him than AP.

And he had a 76 yard TD run against the raiders, a 42 yard run against the Giants, and an 80+ yard TD run against the Steelers that was called back for an away-from-the-play penalty. He's still getting his long runs.

 

[TB=TD]

The Broncos are surrendering 2.2 YPC through 4 games, best in the NFL. His YPC is only as low as it is because he's played against the Broncos and the Steelers. His YPC will be a whole lot closer to 2009 form once they play against some easier defenses. You can't look at someone's stats through 4 games without looking at the quality of defenses faced, because it'll vary wildly from team to team.

He's also one of the only RBs in the league who could get anywhere close to 4 YPC with that many carries in that offense; everyone knows they're running it 30 times a game, and they dedicate their entire gameplan to keeping him from bouncing it outside.

Anyways, to get back to the real point of the thread, as I pointed out, the Broncos have an elite run defense. There are a whole lot of reasons why they're doing as well as they are, and I dunno why Patriots fans should be optimistic about it. They're a better team than the Pats are, that's why.

Playing the Colts and Seahawks has a lot to do with their run defense stats. They are allowing 101 yards per game that isn't great by any means.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Anybody can run for 1400 yards if you give them enough carries.

Not really. Most RBs would struggle to get to 3.0 YPC facing the defenses that CJ is facing, with the level of dedication that they have to stopping the RB when CJ's in there. Given that, most RBs would get hurt before they got to 1,000 yards.

 

[TB=TD]

And AP got shut down by the Saints, what's your point? If anything he's just further proof that everyone gets shut down sometimes; it's all matchups at this point, wait a few weeks and we'll see. The defenses that CJ faces are also significantly more dedicated to stopping him than AP.

And he had a 76 yard TD run against the raiders, a 42 yard run against the Giants, and an 80+ yard TD run against the Steelers that was called back for an away-from-the-play penalty. He's still getting his long runs.

The Raiders and Giants are playing horrible run defense right now....
Did you see the Colts run all over the Giants in their Sunday night game?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Playing the Colts and Seahawks has a lot to do with their run defense stats. They are allowing 101 yards per game that isn't great by any means.

It's better than the Pats.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The Raiders and Giants are playing horrible run defense right now....
Did you see the Colts run all over the Giants in their Sunday night game?

They were in nickel or dime the whole game because they were trying to cover for their terrible secondary against Peyton Manning, something that they didn't even have to put up the pretense of doing against the Titans. Context matters. You could just as easily go and look at what they did to Chicago's running game last week.

 

[TB=TD]

Where'd you get 101? That's just wrong, they're allowing 55 YPG.

ESPN stats

Denver Broncos Football Clubhouse - ESPN

 

[TB=TD]

They were in nickel or dime the whole game because they were trying to cover for their terrible secondary against Peyton Manning, something that they didn't even have to put up the pretense of doing against the Titans. Context matters.

How many times do the Colts run all over teams like that? They looked like the Giants with Earth and Fire.

 

[Deus Irae]

Playing the Colts and Seahawks has a lot to do with their run defense stats. They are allowing 101 yards per game that isn't great by any means.

Yards per game is useless without context when you're dealing with a small sample.

 

[TB=TD]

Yards per game is useless without context when you're dealing with a small sample.

This whole debate is dealing with a small sample. It's all basic conjecture....

 

[Deus Irae]

This whole is dealing with a small sample. It's all basic conjecture....

Yes, but playing a team like the Jets will skew your running numbers way down, while playing teams like the Bills will skew them up. We've seen that with the Patriots.

Over the course of a full season, that tends to average out much more.

 

[BradyFTW!]

ESPN stats

Denver Broncos Football Clubhouse - ESPN

Gotcha, my bad. I read that one wrong. Either way, we're now arguing about the Giants' run defense, aka 3 orders of magnitude removed from the original point, which is whether or not Denver's any good.

If you want to know why Denver's doing well, it's because their defense is much better than ours, and their offense is at least on par with ours; marginally better, even, IMO. They have more proven weapons than we do, and they also have some elite young talent that stands to improve its contributions as the season goes on (Moreno recovering, Demaryius Thomas improving). As a Patriots fan, there's not a whole lot of reasons to be encouraged by the Broncos' success. To assume that we have a far better offense than them is a deeply flawed starting point.

 

[TB=TD]

Yes, but playing a team like the Jets will skew your running numbers way down, while playing teams like the Bills will skew them up. We've seen that with the Patriots.

Over the course of a full season, that tends to average out much more.

So we can agree that the Denver Run defense has been skewed by playing a Colt or Seahawk team?

 

[BradyFTW!]

So we can agree that the Denver Run defense has been skewed by playing a Colt or Seahawk team?

They've played 2 good teams and 2 bad teams. I doubt that it skews too extremely in either direction through four games.

 

[Deus Irae]

So we can agree that the Denver Run defense has been skewed by playing a Colt or Seahawk team?

Well, Seattle is at #18 in the league, and their best performance was against the Broncos, so I'm not sure how you'd be looking to slot that. It's one that I'd have to look more deeply into. I'd be more confident looking at the Colts game as skewing the numbers.

 

[TB=TD]

Gotcha, my bad. I read that one wrong. Either way, we're now arguing about the Giants' run defense, aka 3 orders of magnitude removed from the original point, which is whether or not Denver's any good.

If you want to know why Denver's doing well, it's because their defense is much better than ours, and their offense is at least on par with ours; marginally better, even, IMO. They have more proven weapons than we do, and they also have some elite young talent that stands to improve its contributions as the season goes on (Moreno recovering, Demaryius Thomas improving). As a Patriots fan, there's not a whole lot of reasons to be encouraged by the Broncos' success. To assume that we have a far better offense than them is a deeply flawed starting point.

Ok some common ground. Considering I agree that the Denver defense is better than the Patriots but our special teams can even it out. Their offense doesn't have a dominant receiver or Quarterback while operating at a very effective level. Can we at least agree their running game as of now is worse than ours?

 

[TB=TD]

Well, Seattle is at #18 in the league, and their best performance was against the Broncos, so I'm not sure how you'd be looking to slot that. It's one that I'd have to look more deeply into. I'd be more confident looking at the Colts game as skewing the numbers.

Seattle are ranked 27th in the league in rushing. That is pretty bad.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Ok some common ground. Considering I agree that the Denver defense is better than the Patriots but our special teams can even it out. Their offense doesn't have a dominant receiver or Quarterback while operating at a very effective level. Can we at least agree their running game as of now is worse than ours?

Orton is a top-tier QB, at least so far this season. He's not Brady, but that kinda goes without saying- nobody's as good as Brady. He does have significantly better weapons to throw too, though. I'm chugging the Hernandez koolaid, but I'm still not sold on Tate or Edelman, and Welker isn't himself yet and probably won't be this year. Which basically just means that he's merely "good" instead of awesome.

I do agree that our ground game is better than Denver's, which is to be expected with their injury problems at RB (make ours pale in comparison). I hope that that trend will continue throughout the year; it might, given the renewed dedication that the Pats have shown over the last game and a half. I'm still not sure, but definitely hoping.

I do agree that our ST will largely determine how far the team can go. Games like the last one are pretty much rare by definition, but if the ST can constantly win the field position battle, then that will help cover for the defense, for sure.

What really worries me, though, is schedule. Denver's is way easier than ours

 

[Deus Irae]

Seattle are ranked 27th in the league in rushing. That is pretty bad.

23rd, actually. I put in 18th by mistake. They are 18th in rushing TDs.