Lombardi weighs in on team's moves and motives

[Ring 6]

ummmm
SB champs NO Saints would disagree as recent most example.

Please explain?

 

[Mike the Brit]

Excellent. Now class, moving on to 2010, which team building options offer the best return on value in the remainder of the offseason? You choices are Free Agency, Trade, and Draft. Keep your essays under 10,000 words. Begin.

All three have their pitfalls and, before starting, it's best to be clear what the disadvantages are of each. In all three cases, the team looking to improve faces disadvantages because of imperfect information.

This is clearest, of course, in the case of "Trade", where the team faces a classic form of information asymmetry (see Stiglitz, J.). In a trade the "selling" team has a much, much better idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the player than the "buying" one. Even (by common consent) the worst-managed franchise in the NFL has managed to get the better of two recent trades with the Patriots (Gabriel, Burgess) -- although obviously being bested in a third.

In Free Agency, there is a similar effect (the club that has allowed the player to get to the open market is in a vastly superior epistemic position -- if the player has reached free agency, the first question to ask must always be: why?). Add to that, the effects of imperfect information are not uniform, so someone will always be at the optimistic end of the spectrum. The result is that, in free agency, someone will (almost) always overpay and so the cost of free agent signings is in almost all cases excessive.

Finally, the draft is, notoriously, extremely uncertain -- inevitably, given the gulf between the College version of the game and the NFL. In this case, the uncertainty is not unevenly distributed, so the drafting team is not intrinsically at a disadvantage vis-a-vis a competitor in the way that the acquiring team in a trade or free agency is. But -- and it's a big "but" -- it is rare for teams to get major benefit from new draft picks in Year One. This varies with the complexity and distinctiveness of the playbook and schemes used. Clearly, Miami was able to use its rookie corners very effectively, as were the Colts their wide receivers. New England, it seems, for whatever reason, cannot slot in even successful draft picks so easily.

So:

All three methods of trying to improve a team have fundamental disadvantages. The best position to be in is not to be having to do so and the way to do that is to concentrate your resources on signing those players you think are of a "good enough" standard as early as possible for as long as possible, rather than deluding yourself that it will be easy to substitute or upgrade via free agency, trade or the draft. Otherwise, you risk ending up letting decent players go and replacing them with ones who are less satisfactory (thus: do not keep Kelley Washington or Jabar Gaffney, bring in Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis, end up with Isaiah Stamback; bring in Alex Smith, Michael Mathews, Chris Baker, release Dave Thomas, end up with ... nobody)

Respectfully submitted,

Mike

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

This is one of the slimest UFA groups in recent years due to the changes in the CBA, and because of the fact that many college players have left early to avoid what they precieve to be a rookie salary cap next year, focusing in on signing your own players, especially in a year when you can give them front loaded money without a cap, and investing heavily in the draft would seem wise. The Pats have already accomplished their biggest goal in re-signing Big Vince, they have alos not opened up an immeadiate hole in the OL, by re-signing Neal, so hopefully the Pats can re-sign Bodden, and maybe if he doesn't get his price out in the FA world, Watson, the Pats can enter the draft with 4 of the first 53 picks, ammo in an extra first round pick next year (freeing up the Pats 2011 1st rounder, if they really want to make a splash) 11 draft picks in all.

If the Pats sign Bodden and come out of the secod round of the draft with 2 DE/OLBs (Graham, Sapp, Dunlap, Kimble), RB (Spiller/Best), TE (Gresham, Hernandez, Gronkowski) plus another BPA they will easily be the team to be in the AFC East. AND STILL THEY WILL HAVE PICKS IN THE 4TH, 6TH (2), 7TH (5) for flyers (cough, cough, Blount) a Punter, and depth.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

I fear dimensia is setting in with you.
In 2001, we signed a ton of low level FAs to fill out the roster.
2003 and 2004 were teams built most heavily through the draft, and in a few cases trades.
Who were all these FAs that we built the team with in 03-04?

Rodney Harrison, Christian Fauria, Je'rod Cherry, Don Davis, Bobby Hamilton, Larry Izzo, Roman Phifer, Anthony Pleasant, Tyrone Poole, Antwain Smith, Roosevelt Colvin, Josh Miller, David Patten, Keith Traylor, Mike Vrabel

say hello. FA and Draft both were used to strengthen the roster with depth.

 

[JMarr]

Living in the past can be fun, but occasional visits to the "now" of "today" have value too.

Are you going to even be alive in 2015 when this great draft haul that BB no doubt is going to reel in is going to rejuvinate the franchise?

Seriously, if we stand pat in FA, BB has to hit one out of the park in the draft or we're not going to sniff another Lombardi while Brady and BB are still here.

 

[DW Toys]

Living in the past can be fun, but occasional visits to the "now" of "today" have value too.

That is how it started but wound up as a trade when Kraft got involved and added a 7th round pick if I recall. It was a trade in the end.
DW Tiys

 

[Snake Eyes]

Rodney Harrison, Christian Fauria, Je'rod Cherry, Don Davis, Bobby Hamilton, Larry Izzo, Roman Phifer, Anthony Pleasant, Tyrone Poole, Antwain Smith, Roosevelt Colvin, Josh Miller, David Patten, Keith Traylor, Mike Vrabel

say hello. FA and Draft both were used to strengthen the roster with depth.

Thank You, both are tools and a reasonable person would use every means at his disposal to strengthen the team.

 

[primetime]

FA is how the team won in 2001, 2003 and 2004. If that's not a good way to build the team, perhaps using more of the bad way is in order?

Bargain free agents. There was no Julius Peppers amongst the free agent signings in those years. Rosevelt Colvin was the closest thing, and he was considered good but hardly a marquee name; I'm pretty sure the Bears just paid 30 year old rotational back Chester Taylor more than the Patriots paid Colvin. Colvin himself didn't help much anyways in the Super Bowl years thanks to injury.

Even Randy Moss was a bargain, a 4th round pick and next to no money on a 1 year deal. The big signings were Donte Stallworth (though he was on what was essentially a 1 year deal) and Adalius Thomas, which backfired.

The Colts, Steelers, and Chargers build their teams almost exclusively through the draft. The Saints built their team almost exclusively through the draft and bargain trades (Brees). Signing Julius Peppers for huge money is an act of desperation, not competition. There's also no need to have 3 superstar wide receivers anywhere but in Madden; a Gaffney-type is going to be just as effective as Boldin.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Welker was traded since Kraft (BB?) did not want to be stuck with a poison pill contract, Pats or Doophins.

He was signed as a RFA but the teams agreed to work out a "deal" so both sides were happy

Whatever the backstory was, he was not signed as a RFA, he was acquired through a trade.

 

[Deus Irae]

I fear dimensia is setting in with you.
In 2001, we signed a ton of low level FAs to fill out the roster.
2003 and 2004 were teams built most heavily through the draft, and in a few cases trades.
Who were all these FAs that we built the team with in 03-04?

Just pulling names off of the Patriots official site:

2000:

Otis Smith
Bobby Hamilton
Joe Andruzzi


2001:

Antowain Smith
Mike Vrabel
Anthony Pleasant
Roman Pfifer
David Patten
Larry Izzo
Marc Edwards
Mike Compton

Official New England Patriots - History - Free Agents

Is it your position that these players weren't major parts of that 2001 Super Bowl winning team, and that none of them were involved in 2003 or 2004?


2002:

Christian Fauria and a bunch of stiffs, including the unlamented Steve Martin. What happened in 2002? Oh, yes.... the team missed the playoffs.

2003:

Rodney Harrison
Larry Centers
Rosevelt Colvin
Russ Hochstein
Tyrone Poole


2004:

Keith Traylor
Josh Miller

Care to opine as to whether such players were a big part of the 2003-2004 Super Bowl seasons?

Andy, I know you're a homer. I actually appreciate that, because all sides are needed to make the board work. However, you've really lost your mind over the past couple of seasons, and the post of yours to which I'm responding here pretty much confirms it.

 

[Snake Eyes]

True, but the other teams are only willing to trade proven and experienced players for a reason.

For Welker, we stole him on a RFA tender offer.
For Moss, a lot of people thought he was done. Hence the 4th round value.

What's your point? We got great talent and it wasn't through the draft, those were essentially trades for picks.

Value is where you find it, if you find really good value in Free Agency like Kevin Walter or Kassim Osgood one shouldn't decline simply because they weren't available in the draft.

This isn't a 'one or the other' situation, we have both available to us and we should use those to our best advantage. That being said I'm glad we didn't get Peppers or Bolden, I didn't think the value was there.

 

[furley]

I would say that this could apply to New England. First, they've their own Tom Brady to resign, and you've two first round picks to do as you please with.

Other notable free agents next year include Cedric Benson, Ahmad Bradshaw, DeAngelo Williams, Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith (NYG), Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, Tamba Hali, David Harris, Paul Posluszny, LaMarr Woodley, Johnathan Joseph, Quintin Mikell, Eric Weddle and Eric Wright.

Some teams are more interested in 2011 than 2010 in terms of free agency. The 2011 UFA class will be a very talented group, and if the cap returns, teams will have to have the room to participate. With the exception of a few players, this year’s group is not very talented….

 

[Deus Irae]

Excellent. Now class, moving on to 2010, which team building options offer the best return on value in the remainder of the offseason? You choices are Free Agency, Trade, and Draft. Keep your essays under 10,000 words. Begin.

You use a mix of all available tools. Trades, free agents and the draft should all be on the table.

As for the 2010 season, the elephant in the room has been the limited number of truly quality free agents due to the CBA situation. The Patriots passed on the best players in that very shallow pool, and they'll now have to rely on cut players and the draft. That doesn't automatically doom them but, given the large number of holes to be filled, it does make things a lot more difficult.

The failure of the Thomas signing, and the inability to adequately replace Bruschi and Vrabel to date, coupled with the trading away of Seymour and some other questionable moves, has really put the defense in a hole, to say nothing of the Welker/WR situation and the need for TEs. It's going to take a combination of spectacular acumen and fortune in the draft, great second year 'leaps' from last year's rookies, and brilliant manipulation of the future cut players for this team to get back to the top of the mountain this year or next.

 

[primetime]

Deus, most of those players were no-names (Vrabel, Patten, Hamilton) or guys whose careers were considered all but over (Cox, Phifer, Pleasant, Harrison, Poole, Centers). Only Colvin sticks out as a 'name' signing and he wasn't on the Peppers (or Adalius Thomas) level, and he also wasn't a very big part of those Super Bowl teams due to injury.

I don't see the difference between signing those guys and bringing in guys like Joey Galloway last year or trying to pick up bargains like Josh Reed or Marques Douglas this year. Unless that's the argument you're trying to make, in which case I agree. The draft is still the most important place to pick up your marquee talent though, and the best teams build their core through the draft.

edit: Oh okay, that was your point.

 

[DW Toys]

FA is how the team won in 2001, 2003 and 2004. If that's not a good way to build the team, perhaps using more of the bad way is in order?

Yes that is certainly true. Agreed. Good post.

The "Draft Dreamers" have to look at an 18% rate of Drafting a player that is above average in talent, a future All Pro candidate or just make a substantial impact on the wins and losses of the team....within a three year period of time. It is not a computed statistic for the first year of those said players. Only 18% of the total of eight picks. That is 1.44 players from this Draft. Say even it out as two. The rest will be roster fillers, back ups, cut and go elsewhere or out of the league.

Let's not fall for this "Draft will make a big impact in the Pats from 2009 to 2010". In three years?...better. In 2010? not so much.

2007 was a great year for the Pats look at the FAs.. There showed 63 Players that passed through the 07 Pats roster. 27 were FAs, Trades and Street FAs for a total of 42% of that Teams make up. How important were they in the 18-1 season?

Kyle Brady,Wesley Britt,Chad Brown, Rosevelt Colvin, Heath Evans, Jabar Gaffney, Chris Hanson, Rodney Harrison,Russ Hochstein, Larry Izzo, Eddie Jackson,Mel Mitchell, Rashad Moore,Sammy Morris,Randy Moss,Steve Neal,Ryan O'Callaghan, Lonie Paxton,Marcellus Rivers,Junior Seau, Stephen Spach, Antwain Spann, Donte Stallworth, Adalius Thomas,Mike Vrabel, Kelley Washington,Wes Welker

This croaks the theory you can't build a team through FAs or trades.
DW Toys

 

[Deus Irae]

As for Boldin, the Patriots were never involved. Never.

I'd be happier if that were true than if the truth was as reported by others and that the team was the front runner but pulled out of the 'race'.

I have no problem with the team not wanting Boldin from the beginning. I do, however, have a problem with them going cold feet just because of contract demands when Boldin's made his position on that clear for some time.

 

[DW Toys]

Teacher, teacher..me, me i know....The Draft :bricks:

That would be an "F" Mr. Blue.
DW Toys

 

[Ring 6]

Just pulling names off of the Patriots official site:

2000:

Otis Smith
Bobby Hamilton
Joe Andruzzi


2001:

Antowain Smith
Mike Vrabel
Anthony Pleasant
Roman Pfifer
David Patten
Larry Izzo
Marc Edwards
Mike Compton

Official New England Patriots - History - Free Agents

Is it your position that these players weren't major parts of that 2001 Super Bowl winning team, and that none of them were involved in 2003 or 2004?


2002:

Christian Fauria and a bunch of stiffs, including the unlamented Steve Martin. What happened in 2002? Oh, yes.... the team missed the playoffs.

2003:

Rodney Harrison
Larry Centers
Rosevelt Colvin
Russ Hochstein
Tyrone Poole


2004:

Keith Traylor
Josh Miller

Care to opine as to whether such players were a big part of the 2003-2004 Super Bowl seasons?

Andy, I know you're a homer. I actually appreciate that, because all sides are needed to make the board work. However, you've really lost your mind over the past couple of seasons, and the post of yours to which I'm responding here pretty much confirms it.

Are you seriously telling me that we BUILT SB winners around a backup NT, a punter, an injured FB a backup G, an injured OLB and a corner and a safety?
Those 03-04 FA classes were about 5% of the success.

If your argument was we did sign some free agents along the way, and they added something, you have a point.
To say we BUILT THE 2003 and 2004 teams through free agency is as wrong a statement as has ever been made on this board.
Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, Steve Neal, Damien Woody, Tom Ashworth, Adrian Klemm, Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, Dan Graham, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Ted Washington, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Matt Chatham, Ty Law, Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Bethel Johnson, Adam Vinatieri all say hi.

If you can seriously tell me that those FA classes of 03-04 were how those teams were built moreso than the 26 players I just named OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD and I probably missed quite a few, then go ahead so I can be certain you are delusional and stop wasting time considering the validity of your opinions.

One simple question.

Were the 2003-2004 Championship more importantly BUILT by my list or yours?

 

[Ring 6]

Yes that is certainly true. Agreed. Good post.

The "Draft Dreamers" have to look at an 18% rate of Drafting a player that is above average in talent, a future All Pro candidate or just make a substantial impact on the wins and losses of the team....within a three year period of time. It is not a computed statistic for the first year of those said players. Only 18% of the total of eight picks. That is 1.44 players from this Draft. Say even it out as two. The rest will be roster fillers, back ups, cut and go elsewhere or out of the league.

Let's not fall for this "Draft will make a big impact in the Pats from 2009 to 2010". In three years?...better. In 2010? not so much.

2007 was a great year for the Pats look at the FAs.. There showed 63 Players that passed through the 07 Pats roster. 27 were FAs, Trades and Street FAs for a total of 42% of that Teams make up. How important were they in the 18-1 season?

Kyle Brady,Wesley Britt,Chad Brown, Rosevelt Colvin, Heath Evans, Jabar Gaffney, Chris Hanson, Rodney Harrison,Russ Hochstein, Larry Izzo, Eddie Jackson,Mel Mitchell, Rashad Moore,Sammy Morris,Randy Moss,Steve Neal,Ryan O'Callaghan, Lonie Paxton,Marcellus Rivers,Junior Seau, Stephen Spach, Antwain Spann, Donte Stallworth, Adalius Thomas,Mike Vrabel, Kelley Washington,Wes Welker

This croaks the theory you can't build a team through FAs or trades.
DW Toys

You are kidding right?
42% of the team? More than half of those players were bit parts, or in for a cup of coffee.
The only significant contributors included Moss and Welker (TRADES) Vrabel whb was signed cheaply, Evans who was signed cheaply, and Morris who was signed cheaply..the only big money FAs were Thomas, and arguably Stallworth.
How does that spport spending heavily on Free Agents? I'm not sure what you point is anymore?

 

[Deus Irae]

Are you seriously telling me that we BUILT SB winners around a backup NT, a punter, an injured FB a backup G, an injured OLB and a corner and a safety?
Those 03-04 FA classes were about 5% of the success.

If your argument was we did sign some free agents along the way, and they added something, you have a point.
To say we BUILT THE 2003 and 2004 teams through free agency is as wrong a statement as has ever been made on this board.
Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, Steve Neal, Damien Woody, Tom Ashworth, Adrian Klemm, Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, Dan Graham, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Ted Washington, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Matt Chatham, Ty Law, Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Bethel Johnson, Adam Vinatieri all say hi.

If you can seriously tell me that those FA classes of 03-04 were how those teams were built moreso than the 26 players I just named OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD and I probably missed quite a few, then go ahead so I can be certain you are delusional and stop wasting time considering the validity of your opinions.

One simple question.

Were the 2003-2004 Championship more importantly BUILT by my list or yours?

Adrian Klemm says "hi"? How nice.

As for my argument, if you'd ever bother with context instead of jumping on anything that you perceive as even remotely less than 100% BB/Patriots ballwashing, you'd never have posted in this thread, because you'd have understood the point I was making.

One of the things that the Patriots became known for was bringing in free agents for 'low' money and getting tremendous use of those players. Also, your question conveniently ignores Vrabel, Poole and other players that I listed. I'm sure that was just an oversight on your part, though.

Lastly, 2001/2003/2004 don't happen without heavy reliance on free agency. Do you really think it's coincidence that years like 2002 and 2005, where FA was a failure, are among the team's worst seasons of the decade? Do you think 2007 happens without Welker (a RFA that became a trade), Stallworth, Washington, Gaffney, Thomas and the Moss trade? Come on, Andy, get past the "Gotta ballwash the Patriots, no matter what!" stuff and get back to being a quality poster.