Pats offering #23 & #47 to Jax @ #8 According to Peter King

[apple strudel]

Last year Jacksonville traded 26, 71, 89 and 125 for 8. That works out to 1127 points, vs. 1400 for the #8 pick. #23 and #47 together are worth 1190 points, which is more than Jacksonville offered Baltimore last year.

Interesting. I suppose it's also possible that Jacksonville wants to pick at 8, and the rumors were wrong.

 

[Rob0729]

Because, with 23 and 47, theres still surplus value. If the player they want isn't there, theres a good chance they can take less than what #8 is worth, and still end up with better picks then they started with.

But if there is no one they want at 8 and they can't find a trade partner to trade down, what good would the surplus value get you? If the Pats have to draft a guy at 8 that they wouldn't normally select at 8 and don't think is worth the contract compensation he will get at 8, what good is that?

Unless the Pats have about three or four players they want at the 8th spot or they know with 95% certainty or so that the guy they are targetting is going to be there, it is stupid to trade up into the top ten just because they have a good deal. It costs too much to sign a top 10 pick to trade up and sign a guy who isn't at least in the top 2 on their draft board, preferably 1.

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting. I suppose it's also possible that Jacksonville wants to pick at 8, and the rumors were wrong.

I think they're hoping that Mark Sanchez falls to #8, and they either want him or hope they can trade him for more. If Sanchez goes top 5, then the Jags may do an about face and call NE back.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think the possibilities at #8 are:

3. Andre Smith. If BB is sold that Smith's immaturity issues are overcomeable, then he is certainly a top 5 talent. He would immediately upgrade RT and be a pro bowler for the next decade, and would potentially be a pro bowl LT.

I agree that Malcolm Jenkins is unlikely here, as he probably won't go before New Orleans at #14, and we could probably trade up with #23 + 58.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ist-pre-draft-contacts-page5.html#post1355370

Prospects consistently projected to the Top 10 who visited Gillette: OT Andre Smith, DB Michael Jenkins. Alternative prospects who have visited: DE/OLB Robert Ayers has been projected that high in some mocks. CB Vontae Davis who is rated lower only because of reported "personal issues."

In Jays52's "English" thread, one of our fellows reported on a Larry English interview where he confirmed visiting Gillette, that gives us 28 of 30 possible out of the area visits based on various media reports we've managed to compile. I consider it highly unlikely BB would draft a prospect that high without first bringing them into Gillette.

 

[TheKraftyOne]

They sent #28 to the Niners for #110 and their 1st the following year and ended up with Moss and Mayo. Now they reportedly want to send #23 and #47 for #8? It sounds like the Pats version of Red Auerbach might be wearing KC's red and white if that report is accurate. In other words, I don't buy it.

 

[The Coon]

I think they're hoping that Mark Sanchez falls to #8, and they either want him or hope they can trade him for more. If Sanchez goes top 5, then the Jags may do an about face and call NE back.

Agree 100%. I would also add Crabtree to that list as well. They are hoping one of these guys is there at 8, if they are both gone i see Jacksonville trying to get out of this spot. If we do trade up, Oher should be there and would be our #2 option should Curry be off the board as well. Tyson Jackson could get some consideration as well

 

[mayoclinic]

Unless the Pats have about three or four players they want at the 8th spot or they know with 95% certainty or so that the guy they are targetting is going to be there, it is stupid to trade up into the top ten just because they have a good deal. It costs too much to sign a top 10 pick to trade up and sign a guy who isn't at least in the top 2 on their draft board, preferably 1.

But at #8 the Pats are pretty much guarantees to have at least 2-3 of the following players available:

1. Aaron Curry - 10% chance he goes #1 to Detroit, 50% chance he goes between #3 and #5, and about a 40% chance he falls to #8.

2. BJ Raji - 50% chance he goes #3-7, and 50% he falls to the 8-12 range.

3. Michael Crabtree - 25% chance he goes #7 or earlier, and 75% chance he goes 8 or later.

4. Andre Smith - 50-75% chance he is gone by #8.

5. Tyson Jackson - 40% chance he is gone by #8.

Depending on how BB ranks these guys, there is a good chance he is pretty much guaranteed to get an impact player at #8. As BB noted last week, most teams in the NFL aren't comfortable doing pre-draft deals without a specific player being available, but he specifically said that he is.

 

[mayoclinic]

Add Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe to the 5 players I just listed, either of whom would be terrific value at #8. If you assume that Stafford and Sanchez go top 7, then that makes 7 players left with only 5 teams picking before #8, so at least 2 of those 7 would be guaranteed to be available at #8.

 

[The Coon]

I would do this trade in a heartbeat, no way i see us using all 4 of these first day picks, i see 3 tops and why not go up to get one of the best players in the draft

 

[BradyBranch39]

This is all strongly reminiscent of the non-move to non-take Dewayne Robertson.

How much would it p-off the Jets if we had the Sanchez-controlling pick?

 

[Rob0729]

But at #8 the Pats are pretty much guarantees to have at least 2-3 of the following players available:

1. Aaron Curry - 10% chance he goes #1 to Detroit, 50% chance he goes between #3 and #5, and about a 40% chance he falls to #8.

2. BJ Raji - 50% chance he goes #3-7, and 50% he falls to the 8-12 range.

3. Michael Crabtree - 25% chance he goes #7 or earlier, and 75% chance he goes 8 or later.

4. Andre Smith - 50-75% chance he is gone by #8.

5. Tyson Jackson - 40% chance he is gone by #8.

Depending on how BB ranks these guys, there is a good chance he is pretty much guaranteed to get an impact player at #8. As BB noted last week, most teams in the NFL aren't comfortable doing pre-draft deals without a specific player being available, but he specifically said that he is.

I have no doubt that they will get an impact player at 8 especially since this draft is deep in the first round although there are few real can't miss future HOF studs (granted many of them turn into duds). The question does Belichick want a NT, WR, or OT in the first round? Is he willing to trade up for one especially if he has his heart set on an OLB, CB, or safety (granted there is no safety worthy of trading up to 8 for)? If guys like Jackson and Curry are gone, will someone want to trade up and offer something worthwhile to get a Crabtree or Raji or Smith if available and Belichick doesn't have the player he wants sitting there at 8.

It is a risk. I can see the depth of the first round either helping or hurting the Pats if they were to make a predraft move to move up depending on who is selected. But if Belichick is looking to trade up to get specific player or a certain position, it is a big gamble to trade up at least a pick or two before the target pick is on the clock. Telegraphing it also increases the risk of someone jumping up ahead of you and taking your target.

It isn't a typical Belichick move to do something like this, but he has surprised us before and will probably do it again maybe as soon as today.

 

[mayoclinic]

How much would it p-off the Jets if we had the Sanchez-controlling pick?

It might be worth it just for the effect.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have no doubt that they will get an impact player at 8 especially since this draft is deep in the first round although there are few real can't miss future HOF studs (granted many of them turn into duds). The question does Belichick want a NT, WR, or OT in the first round? Is he willing to trade up for one especially if he has his heart set on an OLB, CB, or safety (granted there is no safety worthy of trading up to 8 for)? If guys like Jackson and Curry are gone, will someone want to trade up and offer something worthwhile to get a Crabtree or Raji or Smith if available and Belichick doesn't have the player he wants sitting there at 8.

It is a risk. I can see the depth of the first round either helping or hurting the Pats if they were to make a predraft move to move up depending on who is selected. But if Belichick is looking to trade up to get specific player or a certain position, it is a big gamble to trade up at least a pick or two before the target pick is on the clock. Telegraphing it also increases the risk of someone jumping up ahead of you and taking your target.

It isn't a typical Belichick move to do something like this, but he has surprised us before and will probably do it again maybe as soon as today.

I'm not sure what a "typical Belichick move" is - I would call a "typical" move doing the "atypical", so I think this is very "typical", if you follow my drift. I think he's staying ahead of the curve and going against the grain of common "wisdom", which is smart. He may also just be sowing confusion, uncertainty and doubt, which is also smart. If this move is real, I think he is more than capable of calculate the probabilities and risks and deciding that this is a move worth doing.

The fact is, there is no OLB worth taking in the top 20, no safety taking in the 1st round, and only 1 CB definitely worth taking in the first round. And BB would still have picks at 34 and 58, with 89 available to possibly trade up. So why not roll the dice and go for a home run?

 

[SVN]

mayock thinks ayers is the mayo of this yr(i.e can't-miss prospect)

NFL Network's Mayock not high on Stafford; says Ayers will be star - Dan Patrick.com

 

[mayoclinic]

mayock thinks ayers is the mayo of this yr(i.e can't-miss prospect)

NFL Network's Mayock not high on Stafford; says Ayers will be star - Dan Patrick.com

I think BB would have to be awfully certain of Ayers to trade up for him in the top 10. I don't see it happening. It's one thing to trade back from 7 to 10 to go for Mayo at a position of extreme need. It's another to trade up to go after someone who may not be a true fit and who may be a one year wonder.

 

[tombonneau]

Hey, this may sound crazy, but... maybe they're after Maualuga?

I know everyone seems to think he might fall quite far, but remember how high the Pats drafted a guy (Mayo) who most thought would be there in the teens. Throughout this whole draft process I've kind of had the feeling that teams were talking down Maualuga in the hopes that he fell.

If not RM, then Jenkins, Curry, or one of the tackles seem like the possible targets. I'd love it if it were Curry.

This was my initial thought as well. Let's not overlook the Denver/McDaniels factor at #12. If BB covets a defensive player and rates him as highly elite, odds are McD already knows this. So if BB thinks the Donkeys might be taking his 3-4 guy, he'd have to significantly leapfrog Denver at 12, hence looking at 8/9.

The pick might not be Rey, but I would not be surprised if this move to get up to 8/9 isn't motivated by the fact that BB knows the 3-4 defensive stud he wants is being eyed by Denver as well.

So if Denver is wanting Mauluaga at 12 and BB knows it, and he is the #1 LB on the board for NE by a clear mile, then it makes sense to move up to 8/9 to draft him.

 

[Mark Morse]

I think the possibilities at #8 are:

1. Aaron Curry. I think he would be the perfect Mike opposite Mayo. Here's what Nolan Nawrocki has to say about him: Thickly built and very, very strong, particularly at the point of attack. Blows up lead blockers and ragdolls linemen. Packs a punch in his powerful hands and uses them extremely well to stack and shed. Rips off blocks effortlessly. Drives through contact and is a physical tackler. Times blitzes and shows good closing burst to the ball. Understands leverage and takes on blocks with the proper shoulder. Smart, instinctive and aware. Alert in coverage and handles tight ends with ease. Football savvy. Sounds like a perfect MIKE to me. Curry and Mayo would be the top ILB combo in the NFL for the next decade. Along with Adalius Thomas, we would have 3/4 of the best LB corps in the NFL. Imagine what this would do to covering TE's over the middle.

I just read an article on SI.com about Curry bringing a child from St Judes hospital to the draft with him. He also has a throwaway line in the article about his ability to play ILB in a 3-4.

 

[The Coon]

What about trading up today to get to #8 only to trade back down tomorrow?

Say this trade goes down and we have the #8 pick by tonight. If say Sanchez falls past Seattle and Cleveland (which is possible) he should be there at #8. We now hold the pick that you could call the hot spot of the draft. What could we get from Washington if we traded back down to 13? Probably next years 2nd rounder from them and we are still in good position to get solid player at 13. Malcolm Jenkins should be there, Ayers and Maualuga possibly. Any thoughts?

Of course this is only if Curry and Crabtree are off the board, if they are availalble im not trading the pick

 

[Rob0729]

I'm not sure what a "typical Belichick move" is - I would call a "typical" move doing the "atypical", so I think this is very "typical", if you follow my drift. I think he's staying ahead of the curve and going against the grain of common "wisdom", which is smart. He may also just be sowing confusion, uncertainty and doubt, which is also smart. If this move is real, I think he is more than capable of calculate the probabilities and risks and deciding that this is a move worth doing.

The fact is, there is no OLB worth taking in the top 20, no safety taking in the 1st round, and only 1 CB definitely worth taking in the first round. And BB would still have picks at 34 and 58, with 89 available to possibly trade up. So why not roll the dice and go for a home run?

Well, all of the trades the Pats have made in the first round was either when they were on the clock (when they trade down like when they traded with Baltimore or last year for Mayo) or when the pick they were targetting was on the clock (when they trade up for Warren or Graham). There is a pattern.

There are several OLB (or DEs who would be OLBs in the Pats' system) expected to go in the top 10. Curry, Jackson, and even Orakpo or Cushing are being predicted to be drafted in the top 10 in most mocks. I don't know if you are talking literally that no OLBs are worth taking in the top 20 or no player who would play OLB in the Pats system is worth taking in the top 20. If you mean the latter, then I think you may be wrong.

 

[BradyBranch39]

I hope it's not Jackson, simply because he's the guy I don't know much about and people here don't seem to like him.