Trades, Rumors, Sliders

[signbabybrady]

Why wouldn't you? Curry and Mayo are both clearly 3 down backers. They can both cover TEs, handle the run, take on blockers, tackle sideline to sideline and rush the passer. Curry is a bit more physical than Mayo and a bit more adept at taking on blockers, which makes him a better fit at the MIKE, which fits since Mayo is a natural WILL. Guyton could back up both, giving us terrific depth.

There are a lot of people on this board who advocated trading up to #3 for Curry, or who hoped that BB had a "secret deal" with Pioli in place as part of the Cassel trade. That never made sense to me, because paying #3 pick money for an SILB made no sense, and because the cost of trading up to #3 was too high. But in the 8-10 range, factoring Mayock's view that teams will take a steep discount to trade out of the top 10, it makes a lot more sense. Mayo's contract was quite reasonable, and getting Curry for that kind of money would be a great deal. BB talked in his presser yesterday about how unusual it was to get someone like Mayo who excelled in so many facets and could come in from day 1 and be a significant factor. Curry is that player. He's got the smarts, the drive and the talent. And he Mayo would push each other - they're already incredibly driven individually, imagine how they would be together.

There are a lot of people that advocated trading 23 and 58 to move up for Rey Maualuga at SILB. Does anyone think that Maualuga would be better than Aaron Curry? Curry is a much more complete backer, better in coverage, better taking on blockers, a better tackler, smarter and faster and more disciplined than Maualuga. I never really considered Curry either because I thought he would go top 5, but IF he slips to 8 or later then I think we've got to be interested. He may still go top 5, but there's a decent chance he slips a bit.

My latest fantasy: trade 23 and 58 to move up to 8-10 to get Curry. Take Connor Barwin (or the pass rushing OLB of your choice) at 34. William Beatty, Eben Britton, Jamon Meredith or one of the 3 OG/C prospects slips to 47. And we trade up in the 3rd round to get a safety (William Moore, Patrick Chung or Sean Smith if they slip, or Chip Vaughn). Or we go safety at 47 and go after Troy Kropog or TJ Lang in the 3rd.

Curry falling that far would probably mean alot of teams trying to trade up for him and it would likely take more than 23 and 58/trading to higher spot but I would be all for giving up 23,58, and something else for Curry.

 

[mgteich]

23 and 47 OR 23, 58 and 89 get us up to pick 11 or so.

Curry falling that far would probably mean alot of teams trying to trade up for him and it would likely take more than 23 and 58/trading to higher spot but I would be all for giving up 23,58, and something else for Curry.

 

[mayoclinic]

23 and 47 OR 23, 58 and 89 get us up to pick 11 or so.

That's if you believe the old draft value chart. Mike Mayock has said that you can throw that chart out the window as far as the top of this draft is concerned, and that teams will be willing to settle for a fraction of the traditional value in order to trade out because they feel they can get a comparable player at 20 for a fraction of the price and are scared stiff of failing at top 10 money.

 

[mayoclinic]

Per Tony Grossi at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Michael Crabtree had a poor visit with the Browns last week and they are no longer interested in him at #5.

Tony Grossi's blog: Cleveland Browns passing on Michael Crabtree - cleveland.com

"The Texas Tech receiver brought a diva attitude on his visit to the club facility last week and did not impress coach Eric Mangini and others, the source said. In fact, Crabtree was described by some in the building as 'not nice.' After Crabtree left, Mangini secured last-minute workouts with borderline first-round receivers Hakeem Nicks of North Carolina, Kenny Britt of Rutgers and Mohamed Massaquoi of Georgia."

Todd McShay on First Draft predicts that the Browns will go defense at #5 and then see which WRs are left at 29. If someone they like is available at #29 they will trade Braylon Edwards to the Giants for that pick and exchange him for a younger, cheaper, WR.

Someone is going to fall. It may be Curry, it may be Raji, it may be Crabtree, it may be Andre Smith. Malcolm Jenkins is already somewhere in the teens instead of top 10.

 

[mgteich]

We'll see. I think that Mayock is overreaching. I agree that the top 3 are clearly overvalued, perhaps even the top 8. But how much? If Denver hadn't gotten Orton, they would definitely be trying to trade with KC and Seattle giving both firsts. I expect trade downs of 2-3 spots in the top 3-8. Then the money issue is less relevant. For example, I even EXPECT Kansas City to trade down with Cleveland.

The action where we COULD play starts at the 8th pick. However I think that Belichick will find the competition for picks 8 and 9 and 10 extremely competitive. There are about 10 players that should clearly be picked in the top 12 with lots of teams as suitors.

My ten are Stafford, J. Smith, Sanchez, Monroe, Curry, Crabtree, Maclin, Jackson, Raji and Orapko (not in that order); and Maybin and Freeman will likely also be in the top 12.

Maybe this is the year for Belichick to make his biggest move up ever. I find it unlikely. However, we do have the draft choice to do it. Using a first, a second and a third to move up still leaves us with two seconds, a third and a fourth to meet our other needs. That's really plenty.

Personally, I would like to use 89 to move our 58 up into the mid 40's. That would give us four picks between 23 and 47 and lots and lots of valuable options available within that group of 25 picks.

That's if you believe the old draft value chart. Mike Mayock has said that you can throw that chart out the window as far as the top of this draft is concerned, and that teams will be willing to settle for a fraction of the traditional value in order to trade out because they feel they can get a comparable player at 20 for a fraction of the price and are scared stiff of failing at top 10 money.

 

[mayoclinic]

Last year Jacksonville traded up from 26 to 8, which is a 700 point difference according to the old draft value chart (700 vs. 1400 points). In addition to 26 they traded 71 (235 points), 89 (145 points) and 125 (47) points, for a total of 427 points, or 273 points less than what the chart would consider equal value. That's only 61% of the differential value.

The difference between 23 and 8 as 640 points (1400 vs. 760). #58 is worth 320 points, or 50% of the difference. 23 + 58 is worth 1080 points, very close to the 1127 points traded last year. Add in the 124 pick (48 points) and it's equal value.

 

[mgteich]

One stupid team does not change the whole system. Why not post how far away all the rest of the trades have been for the last few years when the hopelessly outdated charts have continued to be used? Seriously, we all can wait for the patriots to trade up are made for 61% of previous value. We can whine when the patriots don't make a clear trade up for only 70% or 75% of the old values.

Maybe we can really trade with Jacksonville. After all they have a different chart. Perhaps we CAN trade our 23, 58, and 89 for their #8. That's only a 12% discount from the old charts. This is about I think it will take to move to 8 - 12 (23 plus 47 seems more likely but worth about the same). We might need to give 23, 47 and 89. You act like #8 #9 and #10 aren't as valuable as in the past. I would argue that in this draft they are at least as valuable as in the past.

BOTTOM LINE
In the end, the question is whether Belichick sees value in using one of our seconds to move up. We have the ammunition to move up to 8 - 12. If Belichick really wants a player, which 2nd probably won't stop him, especially if we can keep the 34.

Last year Jacksonville traded up from 26 to 8, which is a 700 point difference according to the old draft value chart (700 vs. 1400 points). In addition to 26 they traded 71 (235 points), 89 (145 points) and 125 (47) points, for a total of 427 points, or 273 points less than what the chart would consider equal value. That's only 61% of the differential value.

The difference between 23 and 8 as 640 points (1400 vs. 760). #58 is worth 320 points, or 50% of the difference. 23 + 58 is worth 1080 points, very close to the 1127 points traded last year. Add in the 124 pick (48 points) and it's equal value.

 

[DW Toys]

Last year Jacksonville traded up from 26 to 8, which is a 700 point difference according to the old draft value chart (700 vs. 1400 points). In addition to 26 they traded 71 (235 points), 89 (145 points) and 125 (47) points, for a total of 427 points, or 273 points less than what the chart would consider equal value. That's only 61% of the differential value.

The difference between 23 and 8 as 640 points (1400 vs. 760). #58 is worth 320 points, or 50% of the difference. 23 + 58 is worth 1080 points, very close to the 1127 points traded last year. Add in the 124 pick (48 points) and it's equal value.

O.K. How does this strike you. The Bears are desperate for a WR. The bets will be gone when they draft at #49. OT Chris Williams was their first round pick in 08 but had back surgery. He started the last three games and they won two. The got Pace with the idea of moving Williams to RT. But they signed Shaffer who was a starting RT last year. Shaffer is only 29.
Thoughts on trading #34 to the Bears for Williams?
If fills a future hole for us and gives the Bear a sure top receiver like a Robiski. There will be no top tier WR at #49
DW Toys

 

[JoeShmoe]

I just dont see Curry sliding past the top 6-8. I really dont

 

[mayoclinic]

I just dont see Curry sliding past the top 6-8. I really dont

You may well be right. But stranger things have happened.

If I had to bet right now, I would bet Curry will go top 5. But I was certain he would go top 5 a week ago, and now I'm not sure. I think we watch and see what happens.

 

[mayoclinic]

Brian Billick had this to say on NFL network about possible Pats draft options: “What intrigues me the most about New England this year, and it tends to be something we see over and over again, you’re looking at all these picks in the first three rounds that they have, and their history to not hesitate, and some of these they will toss off to bank for next year as well, because they realize there are only so many guys they are going to take that can make their football team. To sit there with the six picks that they have in the first three rounds, they have a lot of latitude to however their board lays out. They can go up and get a guy if they covet a guy, which hasn’t necessarily been their m.o. – and I’m not sure this is a draft that you would isolate that. I think they’re in great shape to fit the needs that Charley [Casserly] outlined.”

Casserly, Billick talk Patriots - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

 

[JoeShmoe]

You may well be right. But stranger things have happened.

If I had to bet right now, I would bet Curry will go top 5. But I was certain he would go top 5 a week ago, and now I'm not sure. I think we watch and see what happens.

I think he's the nearest thing to a 'sure thing' we'll see in the draft. If KC cant trade down I think they take him. The only way this doesnt happen is if there's a crazy first round run on tackles or the usual daft suspects like Oakland and Cleveland blow the wad on a WR like Crabtree - both of which are highly plausible!

I think KC takes him at 3

 

[bakes781]

I would agree but if not I'm 99% sure he's #1 on Seattle's board. I think the Sanchez talk is mostly a smoke screen.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think he's the nearest thing to a 'sure thing' we'll see in the draft. If KC cant trade down I think they take him. The only way this doesnt happen is if there's a crazy first round run on tackles or the usual daft suspects like Oakland and Cleveland blow the wad on a WR like Crabtree - both of which are highly plausible!

I think KC takes him at 3

He's a "sure thing" as an SILB for KC in the 3-4 defense. But that's part of the problem for KC.

Here's Nolan Nawrocki's review on Curry:

1. SLB Aaron Curry, #59
(6-1 3?4, 254, 4.54) Wake Forest

Notes: Father, Reggie Pinkney, played five years with the Detroit Lions (1977-78) and Baltimore Colts (1979-81) and his brother, Patrick Pinkney, plays quarterback for East Carolina. Aaron weighed less than 200 pounds out of high school and redshirted in 2004. Took control of the strong-side linebacker position in ’05, starting 10-of-11 games and posting 45 tackles, 7½ for loss and one sack with five pass breakups and one blocked punt (Clemson). Started all 14 games in ’06, recording 83-8-3 with two pass breakups and two forced fumbles. In ’07, started 12-of-13 games and registered 99-13½-3 with four interceptions and two forced fumbles. Returned three of his four interceptions for touchdowns, tying an NCAA record for linebackers. Won the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker in ’08 after leading the team in tackles with 105-16-2½. Added three pass breakups, one interception and one forced fumble. Suffered a stinger in his left shoulder against Duke but returned to action. Team captain.

Positives: Plays with a wide base and great power. Excellent weight-room work ethic and his body shows it. Thickly built and very, very strong, particularly at the point of attack. Blows up lead blockers and ragdolls linemen. Packs a punch in his powerful hands and uses them extremely well to stack and shed. Rips off blocks effortlessly. Drives through contact and is a physical tackler. Times blitzes and shows good closing burst to the ball. Very efficient in his movement — does not take false steps. Understands leverage and takes on blocks with the proper shoulder. Smart, instinctive and aware. Alert in coverage and handles tight ends with ease. Football savvy. Excellent character — highly motivated, driven and determined. Superproductive for a strong-side ’backer. Extremely versatile and can play any position in a “30” or “40” front. Put on a clinic at the Combine by pacing linebackers in the vertical jump (37 inches), broad jump (12 feet, 4 inches) and 60-yard shuttle (11.35) in addition to running an impressive 4.53 40-yard dash.

Negatives: Lacks ideal length for a 3-4 rush linebacker and has little sack production. Shows some tightness in his hips and does not have outstanding lateral agility, which correlated in average shuttle times (equivalent to 40-time) at the Combine. Does not always bring his feet and drive through contact. Could play with more consistent knee bend, which can expose itself when tackling in the open field.

Summary: Big, fast, explosive and incredibly strong-handed with outstanding intangibles, Curry is one of the top linebackers to come out of the draft in the last decade. The only knock might be his relative inexperience rushing the passer, as decision makers will have to gauge how heavily to invest in a linebacker who has not proven he can rush the passer on third down. Has the traits to play any position in any defense and could wind up playing inside in a 3-4 front. Should contribute immediately and make an impact.

Grade: Top-10 cinch.

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

He sounds like a perfect SILB. He stacks and sheds, blows up lead blockers, can blitz, and can drop into coverage and cover the TE. He's not a 3-4 OLB - he lacks the natural pass rush and lateral agility. He's the perfect complement to Mayo.

But do you spend $8-10M/year an an SILB? I don't think Scott Pioli will do that. It's just not cost-effective. You spend that money on a QB, LT, or DL. I think if Pioli can't trade out of #3 he goes with Eugene Monroe, Tyson Jackson, or possibly BJ Raji, even if he considers Curry a better player.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would agree but if not I'm 99% sure he's #1 on Seattle's board. I think the Sanchez talk is mostly a smoke screen.

That is possible. He would make a tremendous replacement for Julian Peterson. We'll have to see. I still think Seattle goes offense with #4 (Sanchez, Monroe, or Crabtree in that order) but you may be right.

 

[mayoclinic]

This from Don Banks latest snap judgments: "As much as the Chiefs feel Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry might be the cleanest prospect in this draft, as many have labeled him, he's still a linebacker. And in his schooling in the Patriots Way under Bill Belichick, Pioli learned that one of the rules was that you don't usually spend first-round picks, especially top-five picks, on linebackers. True, Pioli and Belichick went against their history in taking Jerod Mayo No. 10 out of Tennessee last season in New England. But that's the exception, not the rule, and it was driven by the Patriots' obvious need at the position. And for that reason, I'm hearing Pioli may not opt to spend No. 3-level money on Curry no matter how impressive the ex-Demon Deacon is."

Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers shooting up NFL draft boards - Don Banks - SI.com

That's what I've been saying. I think KC loves Curry. And I think KC passes on him at #3 for just those reasons. But at 8-10 it's a whole different story.

 

[alvinnf]

There are a lot of people that advocated trading 23 and 58 to move up for Rey Maualuga at SILB. Does anyone think that Maualuga would be better than Aaron Curry? Curry is a much more complete backer, better in coverage, better taking on blockers, a better tackler, smarter and faster and more disciplined than Maualuga. I never really considered Curry either because I thought he would go top 5, but IF he slips to 8 or later then I think we've got to be interested. He may still go top 5, but there's a decent chance he slips a bit.

Of course he's better inside, Your projecting Curry inside. You think Curry's an OLB first round talent projects better inside than the the countries top ranked MLB on the top ranked Defense in the country. You have already projected him to be better inside, I guess this is where you would assume that he has better vision and instincts inside. You might even want to argue that playing on the edge has made him more adept at sifting through trash and not relying on leverage to move in space bilaterally.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's some more rumors reported by Todd McShay from NFLinsider:

Todd McShay: Percy Harvin and Brandon Tate dealing with drug issues - ESPN

Among the interesting ones:

- Cleveland possibly having a draft day deal with the Giants to trade Braylon Edwards for #29 if the WR they want is on the board, with Kenny Britt being their current front-runner. McShay thinks Cleveland is leaning defense at #5 rather than Michael Crabtree, with Britt as their WR option.

- Detroit possibly looking to trade down from #20, in part because of the high cost of signing the #1 pick.

- Tyson Jackson as the highest rising prospect in the draft: "Former LSU DE Tyson Jackson might be the hottest name in the draft right now. There has been a lot of talk about hybrid edge rushers like Brian Orakpo, Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown, but it now looks like a down-and-dirty interior player could be the first defensive lineman off the board. We've known all along that the Denver Broncos have been eyeing Jackson at No. 13, but we're hearing now that the Green Bay Packers have interest at No. 9, and reliable sources have told us that the Cleveland Browns are in love with his potential to fit nicely into their 3-4 alignment. I'm not sure the Browns would take Jackson with the fifth overall pick, though it would make a nice marriage if the are able to somehow trade down and Cleveland could pull off a shocker depending on how the first four picks go."

 

[apple strudel]

Here's some more rumors reported by Todd McShay from NFLinsider:

Todd McShay: Percy Harvin and Brandon Tate dealing with drug issues - ESPN

Among the interesting ones:

- Cleveland possibly having a draft day deal with the Giants to trade Braylon Edwards for #29 if the WR they want is on the board, with Kenny Britt being their current front-runner. McShay thinks Cleveland is leaning defense at #5 rather than Michael Crabtree, with Britt as their WR option.

- Detroit possibly looking to trade down from #20, in part because of the high cost of signing the #1 pick.

- Tyson Jackson as the highest rising prospect in the draft: "Former LSU DE Tyson Jackson might be the hottest name in the draft right now. There has been a lot of talk about hybrid edge rushers like Brian Orakpo, Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown, but it now looks like a down-and-dirty interior player could be the first defensive lineman off the board. We've known all along that the Denver Broncos have been eyeing Jackson at No. 13, but we're hearing now that the Green Bay Packers have interest at No. 9, and reliable sources have told us that the Cleveland Browns are in love with his potential to fit nicely into their 3-4 alignment. I'm not sure the Browns would take Jackson with the fifth overall pick, though it would make a nice marriage if the are able to somehow trade down and Cleveland could pull off a shocker depending on how the first four picks go."

A bit of a romance with Jackson.

Say he's as good as Warren. Do you spend #3 on him? I'd spend #5 on a Warren type player, and there's not much difference between 3 and 5.

If Jackson goes 3, Raji probably goes no later than 9. I don't see Cleveland duplicating the NT position. That's possibly 2 QBs, 4 OTs, 2 DTs in the top ten. Poor Denver.

 

[mayoclinic]

Detroit reportedly has a deal in place with Aaron Curry. They want to take Matthew Stafford #1 but are putting pressure on him to accept a lesser deal, and plan to sign Curry by Friday if Stafford can't come to terms.

Source: Lions have Aaron Curry in fold if Matthew Stafford doesn't sign soon - Detroit Lions: News, Blogs, Photos, Audio, Schedule & Stats - MLive.com

Smart move by the Lions (that's a rare statement these days!). Stafford has little leverage as he could fall to 8 or lower if he doesn't sign with Detroit, and whatever they are offering has got to be much more than he would make there. I'm sure he'll end up signing, but not till the last moment possible in the hopes that Detroit will blink first.