You be the GM

[Joker]

just outright cut Dan Connelly..and use the first pick to take a D tackle with a heart condition??????????????

don't bogart that joint, my friend....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think you need to first restructure Brady, Mankins, Wilfork and clear up some cap space. Attempt to cut each of their cap hits by 50%. Can't do that either because it's mathmatically impossible with 2 years remaining or unless you want to screw up 2014 and beyond badly. And restructures for Wilfork and Brady are really non starters because of their existing cap hits.

Resign
Welker 3yr/$27m It all depends on guaranteed money. He'd want at least $15M, probably $16
Vollmer 4yr/$24m Again, how much you guaranteeing and what protection for the team if he can't be his 2010 self again
Talib 3yr/$18m (incentive based) If it's very incentivized he wouldn't take it. He wants a 5-6 year deal, 3 years gets him to just the wrong side of 30
Edelman 3yr/$4.5m In his dreams...
Arrington 2yr/$3m In your dreams
Hoomanawanui 1yr/$1m A bit stiff for a 4th or 5th TE...
Cuts
Gregory Bill won't until he's sure he's got something else there
Gostkowski Not there yet
Fells Can be squeezed first like Ocho, plenty of time to cut him at the end of camp
Larsen
Pryor
Larsen

Can't cut guys twice

Look option (cut, restructure, pay reduction, cheaper alternatives)
Slater Not the captain...
Connolly easier to restructure, decide on future next season. He's the starting RG at the moment

UFA
WR - David Nelson 2yr/$1.8m
DL - Matt Shaughnessy 2yr/$3.5m
LB - Geno Hayes 1yr/$900k

Draft
1st rd - Star Lotulelei (slips due to heart issue) if not Sylvester Williams
2nd rd - Mark Elam
3rd rd - Da'Rick Rogers
7th rd - Marcus Lattimore

Not sure I want t guy who slips due to heart issue...

If Elam is one of the two best safeties in the draft he won't be there at bottom of the second round.

You know for the most part you have to replace guys you cut.

 

[The_Riddler]

I just wanted to say that Jake Knott in the 7th is a great pick. Really like him.

Would love to see the Pats grab BC's Nick Clancy in round 6 or 7 if he is still there. Would provide great depth at ILB and would contribute immediately on ST. He was third in the nation last season in tackles.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

We only have 1,2,3 and 2 7ths. If the last 2 even make the practice squad...

Matt Cassel made the 53 and backed Brady up for 4 years out of the 7th round. 7ths make it easier for Bill to land the UDFA swiss army knives of his dreams. This is supposed to be a draft where the first 25 picks are interchangeable and there is a lot of depth on defense beyond them. I could see trader down Bill re-emerge and add that missing 4&5 or even add a 2 for 2014.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I like the idea of extending Wendell while you were at it. The creativity in freeing up some extra money in other areas is brilliant. I think you should be pretty close to your proposal of Arrington and Woodhead. Any thoughts on Edelman?

Jules is in there. 2 year deal for short money ($1.62M) but with incentives that could double it to 2 years $3.2M. He has to prove he can stay on the field and be consistently productive. And that last off season wasn't his ceiling...

While offering Vollmer a new deal would you have any concerns that at some point the bigger pacts of Mankins, Vollmer, and Solder (assuming they want to retain him when the time is up) would all overlap? I suppose that would be in what, the 2015 season? Or are you assuming that there is a reasonable chance that after 2 more yrs Mankins could be let go? I wouldn't think that Belichick would want to pay all 3 of Solder, Mankins, and Vollmer big money deals, but that's just a thought.

Vollmer will have to earn it and it's a below market deal with incentives that if he earns them he'll be worth it. Mankins could be in the squeeze zone in two more seasons. And his final season has low salary and no amortization until I just put $1.25M in it, so more restructuring can be done over the next couple of seasons if that works for them. Might leave them with a $3-5M dead cap at the tail end but lots can change between now and then including finding a younger cheaper bad ass LG in the draft in a couple of years. That all salary 6th year was always a potential out year for them. Solder is here through 2014 for peanuts and 2015 won't be that bad as the option is the average of #3-#25 at the position. And they can always craft a deal around that so his hits are lower in 2015-16 before they start to reflect his position.

Also, do you think there is any chance that a potential Brady extension could possibly be used to carry money over to the 2014 year, and that they may end up putting it off for a little bit? I suppose the same question could apply to either one of Mankins or Wilfork also, but Brady would bring the biggest cap savings. I'm wondering if a good chunk of the Brady savings (I think you claimed it to be roughly 7 million) may be brought ahead to the 2014 season, once again giving them even more leeway or even possibly extending McCourty next year in one yr earlier fashion.

No. Restructuring Brady again is insanity. He'd have a $28M cap hit in 2014 (making him untagable at $33.6M) and $13M of that would be old amortization that can't be moved. He'd have all the leverage and they'd have bupkiss. That would make the first season of any extension a cap nightmare. His new money is always going to be in that $20 range, better to have 4 of them and 2 at $15 than just 1 at $15 and 4 at $20 with $13M in amortized sitting atop the pile. You'd be talking a $22M cap hit in year 1 (2014). I went to 4 so option or roster bonus could be part of the deal and spread a little dead cap into age 41. $5M in dead cap is squat when you're going to be starting a 1st or second year player coupled with a vet backup like Cassel or Hoyer for the next couple of seasons (or longer if you're not lucky). Manning had $10M in dead cap in 2012 and the Colts did fine because Andrew won't be making the big bucks for at least 3 more seasons.

McCourty's hits are peanuts as well thru 2014. And it remains to be seen if they will ever be problematic. Top safety vs. decent #2 corner. That's a $7-8M player and if they extend him next year you can times that by 4 and add $2M to it before dividing by 5... Let's call it $32M divided by 5 or $6.5M AAV. As long as he can play at a consistently acceptable level that's not a deal that will kill you. He can start out at $4.5 and end up at $8.5 in 2019, when Brady (and a lot of other high value vets) will be gone... That's why they say it's like a mosaic when you do it right, they have this ballpark figured out 5 years in advance based on projections. Those who exceed them production wise will usually be around and those who didn't will have moved on plus those who aged out will have moved on. they aren't all going to be here at peak cap, and if a few too many are that's when you restructure thoughtfully (as opposed to the way Tannenbaum did it...).

 

[Brady6]

Not sure I want t guy who slips due to heart issue...

If Elam is one of the two best safeties in the draft he won't be there at bottom of the second round.

You know for the most part you have to replace guys you cut.

Just so you know I was not cutting Connolly or Slater I was looking at the options of what is best given their higher than wanted cap number.

Appreciate the feedback though..

 

[mgteich]

Your plan works if Welker and the team can come to an agreement. I find this to be unlikely. I suppose another top wideout would be your substitute plan if Welker won't sign.

If I am the secondary coaches and you give me what you have said, I would expect McCourty is starting at corner along with Denard, with Arrington in the slot. As you said the free agents and draftees can provide camp competition.

And I certainly would not be cutting Gregory. I would expect him to compete with Wilson for reps. I do NOT count on a low 2nd rounder to be a major contributor as a rookie, although this could certainly happen. You've made a reasonable choice: to sign a top safety and to use a top draft pick. Add in Wilson and we should be fine for the future. But we still need Gregory this year.

For me, I cannot see how a low-level free agent is going to walk in and better at corner that McCourty in our system. You must own up to your decision. If we don't sign a number one corner, then McCourty will likely be the number one corner. You're certainly counting on a 4th round draft pick.

Your draft is fine in the first two rounds: a wide receiver and a safety. I suppose it is worth having 2 fourths instead of a 3rd. Perhaps not. It depends who's there when we pick in the 3rd. However, drafting a corner and wideout is fine.

Okay, so keeping in mind that we'd have approx. 15 1/2 million or so, I'll try and keep it as simple as possible with the 2013 salary cap hit being the most obvious and important aspect. I would raise that 15 1/2 million by an additional 2 million by cutting Daniel Fells and Steve Gregory. That would raise our total to approx. 17 1/2 million.



#1. Re-sign Wes Welker....2013 CAP HIT (5.5 million) down to 12 million remaining

#2. Re-sign a handful of smaller guys who are still important such as Arrington, Edelman, and Thomas. Woodhead will have to be the odd man out in this scenario. The combined cap hit for the 2013 season for these 3 would be roughly (3.5 million), down to 8.5 million remaining

#3. Sign a top level FA at safety like William Moore and pass on one-two year band aids such as Woodson/Reed etc. This will be our biggest move in FA arguably, along with retaining Welker.

2013 cap hit of 4.5 million dollars with a total deal of about 5/35 (7 million aav) That leaves the remaing money at 4 million dollars.

#4. Add a veteran OT with a minimal cap hit of 1 million dollars. That would leave us with 3 million remaining.

#5. Sign any one of a handful of lower level FA cornerbacks, not necessarily to be a certain number or ranking, but simply to add some credible competition to our CB corps. The CB1/CB2/CB3 problems will sort themselves out after the draft, into training camp and the first 1/4 of the season. In the meantime adding strength, depth, and competition to the CB spots will be the way to go...not trying to replace a CB1 in Talib etc. The truth is that we have no idea who will potentially be the "CB1," but adding some guys to compete with Dennard, Arrington, Dowling, McCourty like DRC/Gamble etc will go a LONG way, especially when you add in a top level draft pick. This CB corps could be absolutely 100% different with the addition of a guy like Gamble/DRC and a top flight CB in the draft.

Considering that we only have approx 3 million left in cap to deal with, I would think that could be any one of a number of players who will have aav's of 6 1/2 million or so (approximately) per season. In other words, guys who would come on a 3/20 or 4/26 kind of deal. This could be guys like DRC, Gamble, and maybe even Asomugah.

RECAP

Resigned Welker

Resigned Arrington, Edelman, and D.Thomas

Solidified the S position for the immediate AND future with William Moore

Added a low cost veteran OT

Added depth and competition to the CB spot by bringing in a 3-3.5 million dollar cap hit player (year one) like Gamble, DRC, or Asomugah


DRAFT

1st round top flight WR to stretch the field

2nd round S to take over the spot left by Gregory, which also adds improvement and could even allow one of Wilson/2nd rd pick to pair alongside with Moore. This would be only ONE option to moving McCourty back to CB if the depth and competition at CB were not sufficient enough, but my preference would be to allow McCourty to stay at S next season

3rd round tradedown to accumulate an additional pick in the 4th round, but the 3rd round pick would ultimately be taken with a CB

4th round (accumulated pick from 3rd rd tradedown) WR to double up at the position

The later round picks of 2-3 depending on any comp picks or tradedowns would be used on DT, OL (guard), and even a coverage LB flier pick or TE to replace Fells or Hooman


FOR THE FUTURE

Extend Tom Brady during the summer to free up money (approx. 7 million) to add any vet signings (2 million cap room) and carry over 5 million for the 2014 season.....

 

[supafly]

No. Restructuring Brady again is insanity. He'd have a $28M cap hit in 2014 (making him untagable at $33.6M) and $13M of that would be old amortization that can't be moved. He'd have all the leverage and they'd have bupkiss. That would make the first season of any extension a cap nightmare. His new money is always going to be in that $20 range, better to have 4 of them and 2 at $15 than just 1 at $15 and 4 at $20 with $13M in amortized sitting atop the pile. You'd be talking a $22M cap hit in year 1 (2014). I went to 4 so option or roster bonus could be part of the deal and spread a little dead cap into age 41. $5M in dead cap is squat when you're going to be starting a 1st or second year player coupled with a vet backup like Cassel or Hoyer for the next couple of seasons (or longer if you're not lucky). Manning had $10M in dead cap in 2012 and the Colts did fine because Andrew won't be making the big bucks for at least 3 more seasons.

I think I may have either confused you with my poor wording or I may have confused myself which is always possible. I am talking about the potential Brady extension that we're expecting, not necessarily a restructure, although I suppose that an extension is a form of restructuring ultimately. I realize that restructuring wouldn't make any sense due to the enormous cap hits that it would produce for the next 2 yrs, but I think we are expecting an extension to add on to the number of yrs he'll be here.

Do you feel that there is anyway that they may hold off on the extension of Brady until the later spring/summer, and instead of using the 2013 savings (I think you stated it would be approx. 7 million) now, is there any chance that they could actually just hold off on that extra money and use some of it for summer addition vets (say, 2 million or so) and then carry over the remaining 5 million to add to our 2014 salary cap?

In other words, many are expecting the money saved from Brady's extension to be used to add on to our projected cap money for this offseason and FA period. I am suggesting that they may be okay where they are at, and could actually carry over about 5 million or so to next year's cap, so if the 2014 cap is projected at 124 million, we'd actually have 129, much like we've been doing lately. Do you see any sense in that? Or am I looking at it incorrectly?

Apologies if this has already been explained in your previous post. I got the feeling your may have thought that I meant something in more in terms of restructuring the remaining 2 yrs to free up money, instead of extending to add on additional yrs to keeping him here (which would also still free up some money due to a lesser cap hit for this current season I believe).

 

[supafly]

Your plan works if Welker and the team can come to an agreement. I find this to be unlikely. I suppose another top wideout would be your substitute plan if Welker won't sign.

I agree with you that I do not see Welker retained, and that is unfortunate. In the context of this exercise of being the "virtual GM" I would certainly start by adding Wes Welker to my team. I fear that Bill Belichick does not agree with me though, and is prepared to move on.

For what it's worth about adding a top tier replacement WR in free agency, No, I would not add someone like that, and I don't expect him to either, unless you'd include someone like Danny Amendola in that category at about 4/25 (6.25 million aav). I think that could potentially be a possibility, and I actually think that Amendola would take up a lot of the production IF (and this is a big "if") he can stay healthy. I am not comparing him to #83, or meaning to slight Welker or assume that someone else can take over his job as effectively, but it appears that it's going to happen so we'd better start going over the options.

Other than Amendola, I think I would take my chances on a cheaper combination of players to cover myself for expecting injuries/missed time. I would assume that Edelman could certainly be a part of that, and that we can still use Hernandez in the slot if/when needed too. I would even go as far to shock the world and the entire fanbase by suggesting something like potentially seeing what Ebert can offer there as a backup if needed or try to get him involved at times like we did Edelman.

We can also wonder if a cheap vet will be brought in for camp fodder and/or extra competition? A guy like Austin Collie is only one concussion away from being in a wheelchair (a shame really), but he may be able to provide some camp fodder in the meantime in the same vein that Anthony Gonzalez did last year...or did he even make it that far? I can't remember. At any rate, Collie would almost likely never see the real regular season but he could offer to take some extra hits for us in training camp for a cheap price.

I may give some of the cheaper cap casualties a look for the right price. You never know when you can pounce on a steal. I honestly have been expecting Miles Austin to be a cap casualty for awhile now, unless he's going to agree to take less money in Dallas. I brought it up in a thread a couple of weeks ago and I think that Adam Schefter may have touched on it yesterday. Other than that I would stay far away from any of the "shiny" expensive free agent WR's that are gambles and would cost too much anyway.

If I am the secondary coaches and you give me what you have said, I would expect McCourty is starting at corner along with Denard, with Arrington in the slot. As you said the free agents and draftees can provide camp competition.

And I certainly would not be cutting Gregory. I would expect him to compete with Wilson for reps. I do NOT count on a low 2nd rounder to be a major contributor as a rookie, although this could certainly happen. You've made a reasonable choice: to sign a top safety and to use a top draft pick. Add in Wilson and we should be fine for the future. But we still need Gregory this year.

For me, I cannot see how a low-level free agent is going to walk in and better at corner that McCourty in our system. You must own up to your decision. If we don't sign a number one corner, then McCourty will likely be the number one corner. You're certainly counting on a 4th round draft pick.

We have been having a difference of opinion on the secondary potential, so keep that in mind. I am suggesting that there are a number of options available. Let me quote my lowest possible costing scenario proposal from another thread, and then knowing that we'd all want more, we can go from there. Either way I think the secondary concerns get addressed, maybe just not in the way that many here want or expect them to:

LOWEST COST FIX TO BOTH POSITIONS (which is basically next to nothing):

One could even make the argument that a top round safety like Elam could pair with T.Wilson, especially if you add a lower/middle cost vet like Sheldon Brown into the mix for starting reps/role bit/depth. That could give us a safety tandem of Brown, T.Wilson, and Elam, with Gregory adding to the mix.

That's certainly one hell of an improvement and allows McCourty to go back to being the CB1, with Dennard as the CB2, and ALL of that could be done without even adding another CB like DRC/Asomugah/Gamble into the mix. We could get by with simply adding some lower cost additions for depth and nickel/dime competition.

In this scenario NEITHER position of CB/S would have to be spent bigger money on. Of course we'd like to see something a little better, but the following positional depth would be achieved at almost no real cost:

SAFETY

Elam
S.Brown (or some other adequate safety for lower cost who could start. Brown had an excellent season last yr at CB, and has been insanely durable in his career. My thinking is that we could bring in a guy such as he for the role of safety)
T.Wilson
Gregory

CORNERBACK

McCourty
Dennard
Arrington
Dowling
High round draft pick who could potentially fall from anywhere from CB1--CB4
Low cost vet pickup for added competition


Obviously we'd hope for more spending to occur in the secondary, but this is just one way that it could be done for a very low cost

 

[BradyManny]

As a fan, I say bring the gang back, re-sign Welker & Vollmer - and Talib if you can.

As a GM, I would probably move on from all the free agents I can't sign for cheap (meaning, keep Edelman, Woody, Arrington). I'd then use what cap space was left for typical stopgap vet signings to beef up the middle class of the team, and for any low risk/high reward types, maybe those coming off injury. Since I don't have a lot of picks in this year's draft (though I will, as BB always does, manufacture them with whatever ammo I have), I need to find more middle class players through free agency.

I would mostly only sign guys who had been cut. If I'm going to let Welker, Vollmer & Talib walk, and my cap situation isn't great, then I might as well be conservative and get some good comp picks for them. With a dearth of picks this year, I think it's a good way to ensure we continue to have a flow of young, cheap talent going forward.

Mo has pointed out the complexities of Brady's contract situation. Overall, I think the current Pats cap situation is not ideal. The Wilfork/Mankins/Brady hits are larger than the team would probably like in 3 guys. This year - and this hurts since Brady might only have 3-5 real shots at a SB left - has to be a year where the team considers the overall long-term view of the team ahead of its short-term goals. You can suffer through a year of a few bad contracts, but you have to be conservative elsewhere. You can still compete for a title with this roster, there's no doubt about it. A healthy Gronk is the difference, of course.

Next year, Brady can sign an extension and maybe he signs something team friendly out sheer obsession to do what's best for the team and win a title. Same goes for Vince & Mankins, I think you have to do something about those contracts next year, but the team doesn't have much leverage right now. All 3 become easier to deal with in 2014.

As for the draft, I try to get a couple more picks for this year and address the long-term need at WR & safety. I draft another tackle to take over for Vollmer and/or push Cannon. I draft a defensive tackle who can rush the passer.

Other needs, like corner, I address via free agency, picking up vet scraps, as I said before. I want legitimate backups at TE. The position is one of the most important on the team now. Ballard does well for Gronk, but we need a Hernandez backup. If I see some options in the middle round of the draft, I pull the trigger, otherwise, I'm probably signing a couple vet min "move" TEs and hoping one sticks.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think I may have either confused you with my poor wording or I may have confused myself which is always possible. I am talking about the potential Brady extension that we're expecting, not necessarily a restructure, although I suppose that an extension is a form of restructuring ultimately. I realize that restructuring wouldn't make any sense due to the enormous cap hits that it would produce for the next 2 yrs, but I think we are expecting an extension to add on to the number of yrs he'll be here.

Do you feel that there is anyway that they may hold off on the extension of Brady until the later spring/summer, and instead of using the 2013 savings (I think you stated it would be approx. 7 million) now, is there any chance that they could actually just hold off on that extra money and use some of it for summer addition vets (say, 2 million or so) and then carry over the remaining 5 million to add to our 2014 salary cap?

In other words, many are expecting the money saved from Brady's extension to be used to add on to our projected cap money for this offseason and FA period. I am suggesting that they may be okay where they are at, and could actually carry over about 5 million or so to next year's cap, so if the 2014 cap is projected at 124 million, we'd actually have 129, much like we've been doing lately. Do you see any sense in that? Or am I looking at it incorrectly?

Apologies if this has already been explained in your previous post. I got the feeling your may have thought that I meant something in more in terms of restructuring the remaining 2 yrs to free up money, instead of extending to add on additional yrs to keeping him here (which would also still free up some money due to a lesser cap hit for this current season I believe).

For some reason you're getting hung up on the when as opposed to how or why. If you're going to do an extension for Brady you do it up front for two reasons. You don't wait for the market to reset even higher and you want to have both cap certainty now going forward and financial flexibility so you know exactly where you stand and what you can or cannot afford to do not only this season but over the next couple. You don't have to spend the money now, you can always roll it over. Doing things piecemeal is being reactive as opposed to having the ability to be proactive.

Personally I don't think they restructure Brady last season (which was clearly necessary to accommodate the Welker tag cap hit) unless they already anticipated getting an extension done this season.

 

[IllegalContact]

my first priority would be to secure my secondary .....

- either talib or sean smith although rodgers-cromartie may come cheaper than those 2......but one of these 3 would be my first priority
- OG brandon moore or OT gosder cherilus......I guess it depends on where scar wants marcus cannon to play....my first choice would be to get moore and put cannon at RT.......didn't notice when vollmer was out last year.
- WR brian hartline

then draft
1 - S Matt Elam.....a bit of a reach, but its a good fit
2 - WR Ryan Swope......very productive in college, and a 4.34/40....basically a slot guy with deep threat speed.
3 - LB Sean Porter.....unit needs some speed and coverage......he lacks a little size, but the team is good there.
7 - DT Kwame Geathers.....he'll be better than brace ever was
7 - SS Ray Ray Armstrong

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Okay, so keeping in mind that we'd have approx. 15 1/2 million or so, I'll try and keep it as simple as possible with the 2013 salary cap hit being the most obvious and important aspect. I would raise that 15 1/2 million by an additional 2 million by cutting Daniel Fells and Steve Gregory. That would raise our total to approx. 17 1/2 million.

See what you did there. You forced yourself into keeping it simple when you didn't have to. That's why you get your reasonable/logical restructures/extensions done now, unless there is over riding reason not to one. So you are then free persue what you want or believe you need to do. I think many here approach the task from the wrong starting point. First you pidgeon hole yourself into what you can afford to do, then you decide what you will do as a result. Can't be roped in to doing things because that's all you can afford to do when you've arbitrarily locked yourself in to an artificial financial ceiling.



#1. Re-sign Wes Welker....2013 CAP HIT (5.5 million) down to 12 million remaining

#2. Re-sign a handful of smaller guys who are still important such as Arrington, Edelman, and Thomas. Woodhead will have to be the odd man out in this scenario. The combined cap hit for the 2013 season for these 3 would be roughly (3.5 million), down to 8.5 million remaining Why, given all he brings... And you're grossly understating the cap hits. People tend to think guys who aren't elite are all going to play for minimum... Arrington has value on the market because 3rd and 4th and 5th corners are at a premium.

#3. Sign a top level FA at safety like William Moore and pass on one-two year band aids such as Woodson/Reed etc. This will be our biggest move in FA arguably, along with retaining Welker.

2013 cap hit of 4.5 million dollars with a total deal of about 5/35 (7 million aav) That leaves the remaing money at 4 million dollars.

Makes less sense than normal in a safety deep draft. And bandaids are good for a reason. If you draft a young potential stud having an aging elite safety to mentor him wouldn't hurt. Plus this team secondary needs savvy, coach on the field type leadership almost as much as it needs talent.

#4. Add a veteran OT with a minimal cap hit of 1 million dollars. That would leave us with 3 million remaining.

Veteran OT's worth only a million - you get what you pay for.

#5. Sign any one of a handful of lower level FA cornerbacks, not necessarily to be a certain number or ranking, but simply to add some credible competition to our CB corps. The CB1/CB2/CB3 problems will sort themselves out after the draft, into training camp and the first 1/4 of the season. In the meantime adding strength, depth, and competition to the CB spots will be the way to go...not trying to replace a CB1 in Talib etc. The truth is that we have no idea who will potentially be the "CB1," but adding some guys to compete with Dennard, Arrington, Dowling, McCourty like DRC/Gamble etc will go a LONG way, especially when you add in a top level draft pick. This CB corps could be absolutely 100% different with the addition of a guy like Gamble/DRC and a top flight CB in the draft.

We have a handful of potential lower level corner on the roster. What this team needs is a competent, above average veteran corner. Someone like Talib, or better (more consistent and reliable if you would). Bill made that pretty clear last season when he traded for one in desperation. Now is the time he is stepping back from the cliff, but only to weigh alternative options. Either way he needs a mid level or better corner. The last corner he drafted high turned out to be better suited to play safety. And the last safety he drafted high hasn't unseated the guy you want to cut yet.

Considering that we only have approx 3 million left in cap to deal with, I would think that could be any one of a number of players who will have aav's of 6 1/2 million or so (approximately) per season. In other words, guys who would come on a 3/20 or 4/26 kind of deal. This could be guys like DRC, Gamble, and maybe even Asomugah.

Those aren't low level corners. They are above average to even formerly elite. If you sign one of them it's in place of Talib and you will have to count on them playing for at least 2 years because there will be cap implications in 2014-15 otherwise. And those deals aren't going to fit under a $3M limit because those guys will want to see at least $8M in the first season or $10M guaranteed which means closer to a $4-5M cap hit in 2013 unless you want to face the potential of $4-6M in dead cap looming. That's why I suggested option deals for Talib or Nnamdi if he is the alternative. Much like they did with Stallworth. You absorb the bulk of the initial hit up front, and you either move on from there with an answer for the longer term or the same hole you set out to fill. But no significant dead cap.

RECAP

Resigned Welker

Resigned Arrington, Edelman, and D.Thomas

Solidified the S position for the immediate AND future with William Moore

Added a low cost veteran OT

Added depth and competition to the CB spot by bringing in a 3-3.5 million dollar cap hit player (year one) like Gamble, DRC, or Asomugah


DRAFT

1st round top flight WR to stretch the field Been there done that hasn't worked yet. Hard to hit the ground running in this offense (no pun intended, as even RB's can't). By the time you develop them they are jonesing for Megatron money...which they will never see here.

2nd round S to take over the spot left by Gregory, which also adds improvement and could even allow one of Wilson/2nd rd pick to pair alongside with Moore. This would be only ONE option to moving McCourty back to CB if the depth and competition at CB were not sufficient enough, but my preference would be to allow McCourty to stay at S next season

If McCourty remains at safety it makes no sense to sign an expensive veteran to a long term deal while drafting another safety in the second round (didn't we just do that?) and assuming he will be knocking someone else into a backup role. This is where bandaids come in handy. A short term solution to staunch bleeding while you continue to sort where it really hurts out.

3rd round tradedown to accumulate an additional pick in the 4th round, but the 3rd round pick would ultimately be taken with a CB

4th round (accumulated pick from 3rd rd tradedown) WR to double up at the position

Going to be tough for two rookies to make the roster here at that position. And they'd have to or you've wasted to picks in the first 4 rounds. Also can't assume a trading partner will exist or a target will be available at a specific position this far out. Which is why you backfill a roster via FA first and always draft with an eye on BPA irrespective of need. Otherwise as you did with the cap you're cornering yourself needlessly.

The later round picks of 2-3 depending on any comp picks or tradedowns would be used on DT, OL (guard), and even a coverage LB flier pick or TE to replace Fells or Hooman


FOR THE FUTURE

Extend Tom Brady during the summer to free up money (approx. 7 million) to add any vet signings (2 million cap room) and carry over 5 million for the 2014 season.....

Again, the future is now. Brady's extension is a serious matter to be dealt with in and of itself. It's either already in the works or it isn't happening. It's not a card you hold in your pocket depending on your cap needs as the summer unfolds. A simple restructure like Mankins can remain that kind of card to play.

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments:

1. Interesting topic and some great offerings so far. But it's so hard to do projections when so many questions remain unanswered. Will McCourty be a CB or S? Will Welker, or Volmer be back on the offense, etc etc. Being a GM isn't easy.

2. I think the most important work done on thread was by Mo. I think to speculate without considering how much cap flexibility we REALLY have is unrealistic.

3. I wouldn't claim more knowledge than Mo on the topic because he certainly put the work into it. I think it goes without saying that extending Brady, and restructuring Vince are no-brainers. However I'd add some caution with Mankins. I'm pretty sure Mankins is done here after the 2014 season. IIRC after that year he carries no cap consequence if he's released. That's also when we we have to resign Solder, so it will be necessary to replace his max salary with Mankin's. I'm not sure restructuring Mankins contract to gain $4-5MM now woiuld be wise down the road, given all the young guys we have on the team that will need to be resigned.

4. I'm curious why in most speculations, Edelman is being offered 1-2MM/yr deals, while Arrington is being offered 3-4MM/yr. Is this the SAME Kyle Arrington who everyone previously thought sucked badly and only had some marginal value as a slot corner? Did he somehow gain in stature AFTER the season and I wasn't aware of it. Personally I'd be thrilled to grab Edelman for just a $1.5MM/yr, but I'd be pissed if I had to pay Kyle Arrington over $3MM/yr to come back. When I read them, I thought the numbers were correct, just given to the wrong guy.


5. One of the difficulty of gauging any of the new deals is because whatever the raw numbers are, it really doesn't matter until we figure out what it means to the cap over the next few years. I've used the example of Holmes signing a 5 year $50MM deal with the Jets, yet having only $1.4 and 3.4MM counting against the cap his first 2 years.

I'm not saying the Pats would do something as short sighted as that kind of structure, I'm just holding it out as the kind of thing that CAN be done, and no doubt that if the Pats sign Welker, Volmer, and or Talib, whatever the AVV's end up being, their cap numbers are very likely to end up something very different. So it the Pats sign Wes Welker to some kind of deal that averages $8-10MM/yr, I doubt very much his cap number will be over $5MM for this year.

6. OK all that being said and all my disclaimers in place, here is my first stab at being GM for a day.

a. Extend Tom Brady and restructure Vince and create another $12MM in cap room per Mo. So now I'm looking at about $26MM available for FA.

b. Resign Talib - I saw a very nice potential contract for here that makes sense for both parties. IIRC, its a multi-year deal that pays Talib around $8MM in signing bonus and salary the first year, but can be ended after the first year with no consequence if he doesn't meet performance and deportment criteria. If he wants to make a career with a great organization, its the kind of deal he should sign. If he's just chasing the top dollar then **** him. I think its the former. Bottom line we have Talib with essentially a one year deal that will give him a cap hit of around $5MM - I now have $20MM left

c. Resign Volmer - Put in all the incentives you want to protect ourselves, but he's still a top end RT and I'm the GM and I want him back. With Volmer back in the fold, I then get my dream OL of Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Cannon, and Volmer, with Wendell, McDonnald and Zuviskus as my primary back ups. I'm going to be a bit more conservative here and only drop my first year cap cost to $7MM - I now have $13MM left

d. I resign Edelman and Arrington. I pass on Woody (sadly) Cole and Thomas - Cap cost 4MM for both - I now have $9mm

e. With Talib, Dennard Arrington back (I'll be shocked if Dennard misses a day of TC) McCourty can stay at S and Gregory and Wilson can compete for the other slot. Adding another DB (I don't care which, just the best DB available regardless of position) with one of the first 2 draft picks should improve the secondary depth without the need having a rookie step in and start right away.

f. So now I have $9MM to spend and the ability to get a fairly high end guy at one of 2 positions. I can go get one of the better WR options, or I can go get one of the better pass rushing options.............

OK I just wasted 5 minutes thinking about which way to go, and I couldn't decide, so like a good GM, I won't make a critical decision like that until a clear option appears

g. As for the draft, its way too early yet, about all that's clear to me now is that I'd prefer my first 2 picks be a WR and DB preferably a tall one in both cases.

h. I'm not seeing all the Tavon love. Maybe its just the contradictory nature of college scouting reports, but I've seen a couple that mention his small hands and that he isn't great at route running and getting down field and catch balls. That a lot of his production comes on short routes and slants. A great prospect for someone, but I wonder if he's a fit here.

i. In the end I resign most of my own FA's and I have $9MM left to sign another top end piece, probably at WR or DL. So this is on the record as my version 1.0.....with many to follow.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

As a fan, I say bring the gang back, re-sign Welker & Vollmer - and Talib if you can.

As a GM, I would probably move on from all the free agents I can't sign for cheap (meaning, keep Edelman, Woody, Arrington). I'd then use what cap space was left for typical stopgap vet signings to beef up the middle class of the team, and for any low risk/high reward types, maybe those coming off injury. Since I don't have a lot of picks in this year's draft (though I will, as BB always does, manufacture them with whatever ammo I have), I need to find more middle class players through free agency.

I would mostly only sign guys who had been cut. If I'm going to let Welker, Vollmer & Talib walk, and my cap situation isn't great, then I might as well be conservative and get some good comp picks for them. With a dearth of picks this year, I think it's a good way to ensure we continue to have a flow of young, cheap talent going forward.

You have to build a team with an eye to winning this season or your engaging in an exercise in futility. It's important to remain cognizant of long term goals, but you can't ignore the present in the process or you may not be there to wheel and deal in the future. Belichick may have more cover or flexibility than most guys in his position, but he has earned it in part by focusing on building a team that can compete every year. His least successful seasons here (and blessedly they have been few and far between) have been those where he grappled with the long/conservative view vs. the short/aggressive view and long won out.

Mo has pointed out the complexities of Brady's contract situation. Overall, I think the current Pats cap situation is not ideal. The Wilfork/Mankins/Brady hits are larger than the team would probably like in 3 guys. This year - and this hurts since Brady might only have 3-5 real shots at a SB left - has to be a year where the team considers the overall long-term view of the team ahead of its short-term goals. You can suffer through a year of a few bad contracts, but you have to be conservative elsewhere. You can still compete for a title with this roster, there's no doubt about it. A healthy Gronk is the difference, of course.

Next year, Brady can sign an extension and maybe he signs something team friendly out sheer obsession to do what's best for the team and win a title. Same goes for Vince & Mankins, I think you have to do something about those contracts next year, but the team doesn't have much leverage right now. All 3 become easier to deal with in 2014.

Actually they all become harder to do and far less cost effective in 2014...I don't know how else to explain it... Mankins deal doesn't require leverage. And essentially all the team needs to do with any deal is dangle the carrot that guaranteed money up front represents. Peace of mind is the other carrot you dangle where Brady and Vince are concerned. Both would rest easy knowing they will more likely than not go out as NEP and not face being UFA in their (career) dotage. And it's less likely Brady signs a more favorable deal after Flacco gets his, and potentially while Rodgers and Eli are getting theirs. Either of which could also yet happen this season, especially considering the Giants are in a bit of a cap crunch and Eli's cap hit is over $20M. The team lost all leverage with Brady when they restructured and set him up as untagable in 2015 at over $25M. They need the deal more than he does. His remaining $30M is essentially guaranteed already and being an UFA in 2015 doesn't scare him. Should scare them though. The guy who would gain leverage were that to unfold is Mallett, and that should scare them too.

As for the draft, I try to get a couple more picks for this year and address the long-term need at WR & safety. I draft another tackle to take over for Vollmer and/or push Cannon. I draft a defensive tackle who can rush the passer.

Other needs, like corner, I address via free agency, picking up vet scraps, as I said before. I want legitimate backups at TE. The position is one of the most important on the team now. Ballard does well for Gronk, but we need a Hernandez backup. If I see some options in the middle round of the draft, I pull the trigger, otherwise, I'm probably signing a couple vet min "move" TEs and hoping one sticks.

Vet scraps is what we picked up a lot of last season. None of which were legit enough to make it through camp. We have lots of scraps in the secondary, that is one of it's problems. GM's have to do better than throwing darts at a board and hoping they stick...

 

[BradyManny]

Vet scraps is what we picked up a lot of last season. None of which were legit enough to make it through camp. We have lots of scraps in the secondary, that is one of it's problems. GM's have to do better than throwing darts at a board and hoping they stick...

Sorry, must've misread some of your comments on the Brady situation. I'll defer to your knowledge there & on the cap related issues.

I wouldn't call it throwing darts at boards and hoping they stick - it's just the fact that no team can go into a camp without question marks and this roster is stacked as is. If Gronk didn't fall on his arm vs. Houston, we're likely reigning champs, at least of the AFC.

Even if we lose Welker, this is one of the two or three best rosters in the NFL, with several blue chippers, and several more potentially developing. The haul in last season's draft put two cornerstone players into our defensive front 7. The move of McCourty to safety solidified our back end greatly. We've overhauled the RB position, are stacked at TE, have the best QB in the league, and continue to excel with seemingly whatever OL personnel we have.

I agree Belichick's least successful seasons were when he opted for long view at the expense of short - that's a fair point. But from how I see it, the short-term is already pretty well taken care of.

If we can do something about WR and safety, then I'll feel pretty good about our chances in 2013. I would say our resources are limited this offseason - we certainly have less ammo in the draft than usual.

 

[signbabybrady]

h. I'm not seeing all the Tavon love. Maybe its just the contradictory nature of college scouting reports, but I've seen a couple that mention his small hands and that he isn't great at route running and getting down field and catch balls. That a lot of his production comes on short routes and slants. A great prospect for someone, but I wonder if he's a fit here.

I think you like many others have come up with a very well thuoght out breakdown that fills our needs and highlights how there is enough space for us to get pretty much anything we want to get done completed.

I picked out your above quote about Tavon as while I find alot of the points valid and I might prefer one of the bigger WRs I think everything you described makes him a great fit for what we do here just not a great fit for what we have here as we have too many players already who do that sort of thing.

IMO if Wes Walks then Tavon might be a great pick to be our slot of the future but if we re-sign Wes lets get a better

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Some comments on the comments:

1. Interesting topic and some great offerings so far. But it's so hard to do projections when so many questions remain unanswered. Will McCourty be a CB or S? Will Welker, or Volmer be back on the offense, etc etc. Being a GM isn't easy.

2. I think the most important work done on thread was by Mo. I think to speculate without considering how much cap flexibility we REALLY have is unrealistic.

3. I wouldn't claim more knowledge than Mo on the topic because he certainly put the work into it. I think it goes without saying that extending Brady, and restructuring Vince are no-brainers. However I'd add some caution with Mankins. I'm pretty sure Mankins is done here after the 2014 season. IIRC after that year he carries no cap consequence if he's released. That's also when we we have to resign Solder, so it will be necessary to replace his max salary with Mankin's. I'm not sure restructuring Mankins contract to gain $4-5MM now woiuld be wise down the road, given all the young guys we have on the team that will need to be resigned.

No idea where you come up with the idea that Mankins is pre-emptively done after 2014. Two of his three highest cap hits are this year and next, so even if he is you want to get some relief from those now. And if he's worth his salaries those years...why not in 2015. And in 2016 his cap hit drops and his dead money is zero at present. Better to spread some of the pain forward into that year. If you cut him in 2015 he's a $4M dead cap hit. If you cut him in 2016 there is none, but you've paid him all but $7M on his deal which actually ups his AAV over that time to almost $8.8M vs. $8.5M. Better to push $4-5M forward into 2016 when the cap will be approaching $130M and if you cut him then you deal with it as you would have in 2015 only it had cost you that much less against the cap over the last few years. Money that was available to improve yourself over that 2-3 year time span. And in 2016 when he's 34 it's likely he'd agree to a reduced salary rather than having to plumb the market. So you might end up with him remaining at a cap hit not dissimilar to the one you started out with by virtue of his taking a 50% salary cut from $7M to $3.5M and a cap hit of $8M or less... And Solder is OK into 2015 because they will pick up the rookie option at the average of #3-25 LT, and if he is extended then or sooner his initial cap hits won't approach Mankins top hits for a couple of more seasons...any more than Mankins hits did.

Logan Mankins

4. I'm curious why in most speculations, Edelman is being offered 1-2MM/yr deals, while Arrington is being offered 3-4MM/yr. Is this the SAME Kyle Arrington who everyone previously thought sucked badly and only had some marginal value as a slot corner? Did he somehow gain in stature AFTER the season and I wasn't aware of it. Personally I'd be thrilled to grab Edelman for just a $1.5MM/yr, but I'd be pissed if I had to pay Kyle Arrington over $3MM/yr to come back. When I read them, I thought the numbers were correct, just given to the wrong guy.

Edelman is a jack of all trades and master of none UDFA. He's also not durable. He's not really even a $1M+ player at this point in time until he proves he can stay on the field and contribute with consistency as either a punt returner or WR3-4 or preferably both. Then he'd have some more significant value, but still not beyond $2M or so. Arrington isn't as bad as some here make him out to be when used as a slot corner. Corners are at a premium these days as more teams play nickle and dime more of the time than they do base. Top outside corners make $10M+. Decent outside corners make $6M+. Slot or nickle/dime corners make half that and more. JAGS (and we have some of those, too) with any experience make around a million. People have to get past the concept that you are either elite or a JAG. There is a vast middle ground inbetween. Arrington has been relatively durable and consistent and he even has had his moments on the outside in spot backup duty although it's not his forte.


5. One of the difficulty of gauging any of the new deals is because whatever the raw numbers are, it really doesn't matter until we figure out what it means to the cap over the next few years. I've used the example of Holmes signing a 5 year $50MM deal with the Jets, yet having only $1.4 and 3.4MM counting against the cap his first 2 years.

You keep repeating that when you've been told repeatedly that $1.4M cap was salary only when they initially traded for him while on the last year of a rookie deal and it factored in his 4 game suspension to open that season. The $3.4M hit was his initial hit on the 5 year deal and in hindsight the JETS (not to mention their now departed cap guru turned GM) regret being that ridiculously aggressive with Holmes (both on hit and contract value...). They are now trying once again to restructure him into something they can live with. Good luck with that.

I'm not saying the Pats would do something as short sighted as that kind of structure, I'm just holding it out as the kind of thing that CAN be done, and no doubt that if the Pats sign Welker, Volmer, and or Talib, whatever the AVV's end up being, their cap numbers are very likely to end up something very different. So it the Pats sign Wes Welker to some kind of deal that averages $8-10MM/yr, I doubt very much his cap number will be over $5MM for this year.

Everyone does that to some extent unless the player in question is someone like Talib or even Vollmer or Welker where you may have some concerns about their relative ability to produce consistently over the span of the deal. The key is not to be too short sighted and open yourself up to ugly dead cap implications. When you go too low early on, maxing out that opportunity so to speak, you run the risk of being bitten in the ass on the back end. That is why I'd do option deals for both Talib and Vollmer and absorb the bulk of their first year hit up front. JETS are now screwed in part because they did too much to keep hits down early on on guys who turned out to be lousy investments to boot.

6. OK all that being said and all my disclaimers in place, here is my first stab at being GM for a day.

a. Extend Tom Brady and restructure Vince and create another $12MM in cap room per Mo. So now I'm looking at about $26MM available for FA.

Brady and Wilfork only get you less than $9M if you restructure Vince. And you have to cut him next season as his cap hit would be $14M+ with a dead cap of $6M... He might not sign off on that. Or he could squeeze you then for a better extension or else. He doesn't perform as well on the field or in the locker room as a captain when he's stressed about his own circumstance...

b. Resign Talib - I saw a very nice potential contract for here that makes sense for both parties. IIRC, its a multi-year deal that pays Talib around $8MM in signing bonus and salary the first year, but can be ended after the first year with no consequence if he doesn't meet performance and deportment criteria. If he wants to make a career with a great organization, its the kind of deal he should sign. If he's just chasing the top dollar then **** him. I think its the former. Bottom line we have Talib with essentially a one year deal that will give him a cap hit of around $5MM - I now have $20MM left

How'd that happen...Can't be no consequence with a signing bonus, it gets divided by the years in the deal up to 5...so the consequence is either 4/5ths of the signing bonus as dead cap or no signing bonus and all salary which would hit the cap at full value... If the deal was $5M in signing bonus and $3M in salary it would hit the cap at $4M, but the dead cap it cut would be $4M. If it was $3M in signing bonus and $5M in salary, it would hit the cap at $6M with a $2M dead cap if cut. He probably wouldn't do either deal unless there was an option that guaranteed him if he played well and kept his nose clean would trigger the meat of a bigger, market level deal (say $8M+ per for 4+ more years). He will be on the wrong side of 30 nest off season and with his track record impending FA would not be a panacea if you just walked away. So their has to be a carrot dangling from your stick.

c. Resign Volmer - Put in all the incentives you want to protect ourselves, but he's still a top end RT and I'm the GM and I want him back. With Volmer back in the fold, I then get my dream OL of Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Cannon, and Volmer, with Wendell, McDonnald and Zuviskus as my primary back ups. I'm going to be a bit more conservative here and only drop my first year cap cost to $7MM - I now have $13MM left

d. I resign Edelman and Arrington. I pass on Woody (sadly) Cole and Thomas - Cap cost 4MM for both - I now have $9mm

e. With Talib, Dennard Arrington back (I'll be shocked if Dennard misses a day of TC) McCourty can stay at S and Gregory and Wilson can compete for the other slot. Adding another DB (I don't care which, just the best DB available regardless of position) with one of the first 2 draft picks should improve the secondary depth without the need having a rookie step in and start right away.

f. So now I have $9MM to spend and the ability to get a fairly high end guy at one of 2 positions. I can go get one of the better WR options, or I can go get one of the better pass rushing options.............


i. In the end I resign most of my own FA's and I have $9MM left to sign another top end piece, probably at WR or DL. So this is on the record as my version 1.0.....with many to follow.

You got less than $6M left. And ideally in a relatively flat cap environment you would want to have $4-5M available to roll over.

 

[supafly]

Again, the future is now. Brady's extension is a serious matter to be dealt with in and of itself. It's either already in the works or it isn't happening. It's not a card you hold in your pocket depending on your cap needs as the summer unfolds. A simple restructure like Mankins can remain that kind of card to play.

Thanks for the thoughts, MLR. Playing pretend GM isn't easy

 

[ivanvamp]

Well now that Brady's extension gives us an additional $7 million to play with, that gives all of us an opportunity to revise our "play the GM" scenarios. Now I can keep Welker and still do all the things I wanted to do to improve the defense.