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Yes, even Mike Reiss can't defend or explain BB's draft reaches


Last year the week of the draft, many folks here were disappointed in the Tavon Wilson pick and delighted with the Dennard pick. They felt Wilson was a big reach and Dennard a great value.

I think at the end of the year, the majority view proved more accurate. Wilson played himself onto the bench, and Dennard played himself onto the field.

This site is not peopled with idiots. A number of folks pay attention.

For every "most wins in the NFL" argument the "worst passing defense in the NFL" can be trotted out. The repeated frustration is that Belichick the coach and Brady the QB make up for some GM/personnel mistakes. But for those, the "most wins" might be "most trophies."

I don't recall any of the draft-compulsives calling out Harmon before this week. And these guys go three and four hundred players deep.

I echo the comments, such as mgteich's, that if you can't offer criticism, what's a place like this for anyway?

Great Post.

Strong Finish. :cool:

I'm one of those Draft Compulsives you mentioned, and I'd never heard of the guy.

Doesn't mean it won't prove to be a great Pick ~ nobody'll be happier to eat my words than I, if so.

But as you say: We are surely entitled to our Opinions. :cool:

And just 'cause that slick-haired moron, Kiper, happens to agree with me doesn't mean I'm wrong!! :D
 
First, it wasn't a demotion.

Whether if fans like McCourty or not, Belichick loves the guy. He values his leadership and smarts and he feels that those traits could be better used at safety. Belichick doesn't view safety as a demotion at all. I guarantee you he would take one Rodney Harrison over ten Ty Laws. I think he feels the safety is the captain of the defensive backfield and the glue that holds the secondary together.

Second, if McCourty becomes a Pro Bowl safety, is he a bad pick late in the first round. I think he was drafted lower than Meriweather in the first round.

Precisely. :cool:

I wrote at the time ~ and say it again: Free Safety is more important than Corner.

The Talib Trade was most advantageous not because of Talib himself, but because it allowed McCourty to stay at Free Safety, the Ripple Effect of which improved our entire Defense ~ starting before Talib arrived. :eek:
 
Let's start from the widely recognized first year in the re-building process, 2008. The following are the DB selections with round and result included. Let's see if it's fair for anyone to question BB's decisions following the selections of DB's...

2008:
1. Terrence Wheatley (2) - Bust/No longer on team
2. Jonathan Wilhite (4) - Bust/No longer on team

2009:
1. Patrick Chung (1) - Bust/No longer on team
2. Darius Butler (2) - Bust/No longer on team

2010:
1. Devin McCourty (1) - Starting safety

2011:
1. Ras-I Dowling (2) - To date, has not played a full season/Trending bust
2. Malcolm Williams (6) - Special teamer

I'm not going to include the Tavon Wilson or Dennard picks because the jury is still out. Wilson, in particular, could still wipe away the mental mistakes that put him on the bench last season. But I considered everything up until 2011 fair game. Let's have a look. The team, since 2008, has drafted seven DB's, most of whom were in the first four rounds, where you're still pulling the trigger hoping for a starter out of that pick. Of those seven, four are busts and are no longer one the team. One is a starting safety that converted over from corner because he couldn't turn his head in press man. One is an injury plagued, trending bust whom most of us (even if we won't admit it) would be surprised if he wasn't cut during TC. The last is a late round special teamer (which was about the most anyone would expect).

Last year, the team took Tavon Wilson, unexpectedly, with their second round pick. To date, he's most known for blowing the exact same coverage on pretty much the exact same play in pretty close succession and then being somewhat of a ghost the rest of the season. Mental mistakes, even as a rookie, are usually the best way to be sat down by BB, and this certainly appears from the outside to be what happened. On the final day of the draft, the team selected Dennard, a hard nosed CB that excels in press man. This appeared to be a smashing success last year after Talib was brought in.

Now to the topic at hand: the reach of Harmon. First and foremost, the selection of Harmon may not bode well for what the team thinks of Wilson. Secondly, it's widely considered a reach. Even if you have your reasons for believing that the team *should* have reached for Harmon (i.e. - they must see something we don't/they must be worried another team would have got him), it's a pretty clear consensus that he was a reach based upon projections and where his fellow safeties went vs. where they were projected. Either way, it's somewhat of a disturbing trend, and Reiss has the right to question it. For a coach who incorporates a mixture of need vs. best available into how he drafts, this is now the second year in a row that he's made a big reach for need. He's reached before, yes. But never on the same position two years in a row... and multiple rounds up for talent that was either considered a late pick or a UDFA. The biggest problem that I have with Reiss in this article isn't that he questions the thought process and the selection. The selections of DB's over the years open themselves up for questioning. It's that he wavers. He starts out full of conviction, then seems to remember that he needs to say some good things to keep the relationship that he has with the Patriots intact, then ends the article on a weak note.

And look, this may come off as me slamming Belichick. I'm not. The guy is the best coach in the league, bar none. But some of his decisions as a personnel guy, particularly in the "re-building" era are head scratchers. They're also part of the reason why this team hasn't brought home the Lombardi Trophy since 2004.

Brilliant, brilliant Post!! :rocker:

I'm sure as I progress through this Thread, it'll shortly be slammed, right and left!! :D

Post #82, for those who want to Reference it. :cool:

I think an incredibly important Point that I've honestly never seen voiced is that if Coach Bill or any other Team gives Player X, say, a 3rd Round Grade, then it doesn't mean that you should be drafting'm in the 3rd Round. Frankly ~ given that all Evaluation is subjective ~ it seems obvious to me that you should try to get Prospects who you grade far higher than the Pick with every single Pick, if possible.

If Coach Bill gave Harmon a 3rd Round Grade, but speculated that the rest of the Teams didn't give'm anything higher than a 6th Round Grade, he should've looked to Trade Back and pick'm up in the 5th.

Of course: this is all Theoretical. Maybe Coach Bill gave'm a 1st Round Grade, for all I know. :eek:
 
in 2008 there were 30 CB's drafted Only 2 of those were pro bowlers
in 2009 35 CB were drafted None are pro bowlers
in 2010 33 CB were drafted, only 1 was a probowler (mccourty)
in 2011 39 CB were drafted, 1 pro bowler
in 2012 31 CB were drafter, none of which are probowlers

So yeah we have whiffed on 4-5 DB's since 2008 but its not like we missed out on an abundance of super talented players.

None of those CB's taken that made probowls were selected after the patriots in the first round.

BB does the best he can with what he has and the position he is in every year to select. short of Colting it for a season i dont see us getting a shot at a real blue chipper

C'mon, Bro.

No offense, and Coach Bill is an awesome Coach and General Manager...But his Drafting of the Secondary over the last several Years has been an inarguably Epic Failure, much as it pains me to admit it.
 
Pretty much everyone that covers the draft had him listed as a 7th rounder at best and a UDFA at worst. Considering the way the draft fell for the other safety candidates after Harmon went, it's probably safe to assume that he could have been had later. If not, so what? Was he such a can't miss product that the team couldn't have gone for better value?

Beautiful!! :rocker:

To break down your words, my good man:

1 ~ It's probably safe to assume that he could have been had later.

2 ~ If not, so what?

3 ~ Was he such a can't miss product that the team couldn't have gone for better value?

That's the Point ~ behind this Foolishness and the Wilson Foolishness.

So many folks defending the Wilson Pick, last Year, acted as if he was The Second Coming. :eek:

There were other Options.

Better Options.

Far better Options.

And if the legendary Tavon Wilson wasn't there later...so what??? :rolleyes:
 
We love the criticize every person and every analyst who disagrees with us. Let us say that there was indeed some team who was ready to draft Harmon between 91 and 102. That would STILL mean that Belichick (or the other team) drafted Harmon rounds before ALL the analysts had him rated.
I dont understand your point. Are you saying the analysts guess is the reality?
Are you seriously expecting an NFL to pick a player they have rated lower because the analysts think the guy they want will get picked later?



We used to criticize the Raiders when they made this kind of draft choice. Most criticized Dallas when they drafted a 3rd round center in the first, but at least he was arguably the best center.
Who is WE?

The REALITY is that Belichick reached for Harmon. I'm fine in saying that Belichick has every right to do that, and that his success in drafting and in winning gives him that right.
Im not actually sure what a reach is. To me it would be ignoring higher rated players on your own board either to fill a position or to take a shot at a very risky player. I don't know that this happened here.

But if we cannot and should not question the choice of Harmon, we shouldn't bother discussing the draft at all. It is very boring to see page after page of how great each our choices is and how we will definitely win the Super Bowl. IMHO, this board is for speculation, analysis, support and criticism.
Who says you can't question the pick?
I think questioning it because of draft writers is wrong, but thats me. Everything is subject to question but the logic of the questioning is also subject to disagreement.
You seem to be saying you can question whatever you want, but are taking offense to people questioning your viewpoint. Kind of a double standard, no?



If we have the right to jump up and down over the choice of Gronkowski and Hernandez, then we should have the right to complain about Tavon Wilson (who gets a very bod rap here) and Harmon.
=========
See above. Is someone telling you not to post your opinions?

Perhaps, Harmon will be a great contributor like other 7th round rated talent and UDFA's before him.
Um, he is not a 7th round talent.
 
Pretty much everyone that covers the draft had him listed as a 7th rounder at best and a UDFA at worst. Considering the way the draft fell for the other safety candidates after Harmon went, it's probably safe to assume that he could have been had later. If not, so what? Was he such a can't miss product that the team couldn't have gone for better value?

I don't totally dismiss where players are rated going into the draft. However, unless you can show me the people that had Barkley going in the 4th, Jessie Williams in the 5th or the people that had Da'Rick Rogers going anywhere near undrafted, then we shouldn't look at these ratings as proof that a certain player could have been had later.

And I hear you on feeling that the "reach" wasn't worth it because it's not as if he was a can't miss product. That being said, who was the can't miss product at pick #91 on? If they felt better about Harmon over any other player on their board, what does "value" matter?

If you use nfldraftscout.com and look at our drafts under Belichick, the best Patriots draft in terms of value (by a wide margin) was 2006. How does that value look today?
 
We are taking past each other because we have four methods of evaluating draft picks.

For many of you, there is no such thing as a reach by the patriots. After all, we don't know Belichick's board. We don't have Belichick's knowledge or his analytic football ability. That's fine. It is a reasonable position.

It is also reasonable to look at the patriots picks through the eye of dozens if not hundreds of analysts, many of whom are former players, GM and other football functionaries.

Finally, it is reasonable to look at the picks with our own personal views, with our own expertise. For some, that expertise is considerable, with most, not so much.

The last view is that we cannot judge the draft pick until at least three years have past. These folks don't like predictions of any kind, probability and likelihood have little meaning.
 
Yeah put me down for a combo platter of 1 & 4... both of which have their own pitfalls (Chad Jackson's going to pan out any day now...)
 
Beautiful!! :rocker:

To break down your words, my good man:

1 ~ It's probably safe to assume that he could have been had later.

2 ~ If not, so what?

3 ~ Was he such a can't miss product that the team couldn't have gone for better value?

That's the Point ~ behind this Foolishness and the Wilson Foolishness.

So many folks defending the Wilson Pick, last Year, acted as if he was The Second Coming. :eek:

There were other Options.

Better Options.

Far better Options.

And if the legendary Tavon Wilson wasn't there later...so what??? :rolleyes:

Totally agree brother OTG. I think Kendall Reyes, Lavonte David and Casey Hayward would have been much better options in 2012 Round 2.
 
So much revisionism.

It doesn't surprise me that people suddenly remembered that wanted Casey Hayward at the time.

But where are all of the large majority that wanted Devon Still? Or Vinny Curry? Or Ryan Broyles, Peter Konz etc?

Oh right, they sucked.

Have a word with yourselves.
 
I'd put good money on the call to BB when we took Harmon, being from Chip Kelly and the Eagles wanting to come up for Barkley.
 
So much revisionism.

It doesn't surprise me that people suddenly remembered that wanted Casey Hayward at the time.

But where are all of the large majority that wanted Devon Still? Or Vinny Curry? Or Ryan Broyles, Peter Konz etc?

Oh right, they sucked.

Have a word with yourselves.

A year later, they're still spending relatively high draft picks on a safety and a LB that can cover. Lavonte David, besides being a more productive college player, could have at least had the coverage LB and probably the big nickel role that Wilson played covered. Maybe Collins can cover, maybe Fletcher can fill the role but you can't say with any degree of certainty that either Wilson or Harmon will earn a starting job at Safety. David would have the better choice at the time and now with the benefit of hindsight with at least one position being less of a question mark.

The Patriots seemed to be mostly alone in their valuation of the Wilson and Harmon picks, I don't see the harm in judging these picks against other more highly regarded draftees.
 
A year later, they're still spending relatively high draft picks on a safety and a LB that can cover. Lavonte David, besides being a more productive college player, could have at least had the coverage LB and probably the big nickel role that Wilson played covered. Maybe Collins can cover, maybe Fletcher can fill the role but you can't say with any degree of certainty that either Wilson or Harmon will earn a starting job at Safety. David would have the better choice at the time and now with the benefit of hindsight with at least one position being less of a question mark.

The Patriots seemed to be mostly alone in their valuation of the Wilson and Harmon picks, I don't see the harm in judging these picks against other more highly regarded draftees.

Collins is more than a LB that can cover, he is also a guy who rushes the passer. Lets not forget that the Patriots drafted a MLB/OLB in Hightower in the round ahead of David and of course Jones who is a DE/OLB. Oh, right and Mayo is also a guy who olays OLB. So, where is David going to play? Or are you suggesting that we start 2 rookies at the LB position?

The David pick does not make any sense in the context of the draft last year.
 
Collins is more than a LB that can cover, he is also a guy who rushes the passer. Lets not forget that the Patriots drafted a MLB/OLB in Hightower in the round ahead of David and of course Jones who is a DE/OLB. Oh, right and Mayo is also a guy who olays OLB. So, where is David going to play? Or are you suggesting that we start 2 rookies at the LB position?

The David pick does not make any sense in the context of the draft last year.

Right about Collins, he is a pass rusher first. He is athletic and probably could be used in coverage - just not when he's rushing the passer.

Do you consider Hightower and Jones coverage LBs? Because that along with the Big Nickel S/LB position are the roles I suggested David play. The way it would work is Spikes and/or Hightower come off the field in passing situations.

And we still may not have a starting safety in Wilson and Harmon.
 
my only 2 issues regarding the drafts BB has had the last few year was brace over barwin and dowling over brooks reed......at least one of those 2 should have happened. beyond that, my bigger concern is the propensity for players to go backwards once they show up......ou tof all of them, only mccourty could be said to have been negatively impacted by the players around him.....that said, wheatley, chung, maroney, brace, butler are all guys who had their best moments their first years here, and went downhill from there....I find that pretty strange considering they are all high picks
 
A year later, they're still spending relatively high draft picks on a safety and a LB that can cover. Lavonte David, besides being a more productive college player, could have at least had the coverage LB and probably the big nickel role that Wilson played covered. Maybe Collins can cover, maybe Fletcher can fill the role but you can't say with any degree of certainty that either Wilson or Harmon will earn a starting job at Safety. David would have the better choice at the time and now with the benefit of hindsight with at least one position being less of a question mark.

The Patriots seemed to be mostly alone in their valuation of the Wilson and Harmon picks, I don't see the harm in judging these picks against other more highly regarded draftees.

I'm not sure why you've made that post in reply to my comments, but I'll respond.....

The Pats weren't going to spend a high pick on another Linebacker who was clearly going to only be a situational player. We had the three starters in place, Hightower to join part of the rotation as well, alongside a good-looking coverage LB in Dane Fletcher.

David's had a nice rookie year in a scheme that's pure downhill. He's excellent in coverage, as any WILL should be, but the rest of his game isn't exactly brilliant. Despite having a sturdy D-Line, he was awful when blitzing. As for the run game - well, give me no other responsibility other than shooting a gap created by Gerald McCoy, and I could look like Ray Lewis. When a Guard gets his hands on him though, it's over.

Compare him to Collins who, based on his College tape, you won't have to hide schematically and can, you know, actually rush the passer, then there's no comparison. I see Collins and Hightower as a new Bruschi/Vrabel - players who can play a couple of positions and will help continue our ability to mask our schemes and create confusion.

As for comparing David to TW, that's a false climate you're creating. You can't just say "Player A did more than Player B ergo he would have been the better pick". Nor did Wilson fill the big nickel role, seeing as we seemingly dispensed of that this year and instead went with the likes of Arrington and Cole in a more traditional role.

We needed another young Safety. The Pats looked at him, looked at every other player on their board (including David, who BB personally worked out on campus) and thought he improved the roster the best. That's the bottom line of the whole process. Projecting players to your scheme and what they will add to your organisation. The value of a Safety meant much more than another Linebacker.

As for how Wilson performed - all you need to look at is that he wasn't targeted when he was on the field. Teams weren't going after him (like they did in McCourty's first year, which people forget). That's the measure of any young player.

Moving to Harmon - only time will tell. We only know the facts - he was a core member of a defense that finished 4th in the country last year and was twice voted all-Conference. We also know that none of the amateur GM's out there had him rated higher than 5th-7th round.

But if you want to talk about accurately comparing the players we took to others we didn't then you need to do so by looking at the positions they play and the value they'd have brought. So the comparison you need to make is David v Hightower, not anyone else.
 


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