Yes, even Mike Reiss can't defend or explain BB's draft reaches

[50-yard-line]

This week's Mailbag called by Mike Reiss is very revealing. One of the reporters with excellent access in the Pats organization, he openly says he can't explain, much less defend, BB's picks like Wilson last year or Harmon this year. Reiss uses strong language -- for a cautious, normally deferential reporter.

"Here's the bottom-line thought: If the Patriots' defense doesn't turn a more decisive corner, and we're seeing some of the same struggles in 2013 as we've seen in recent years, it will be a big disappointment. Some hard questions would have to be asked."
New England Patriots Mailbag: Second-guessing Bill Belichick's draft - ESPN Boston

On Tavon Wilson, last year's #48 pick, he says:
"any team picking 48th overall wants to land a starter at that spot, and Wilson is not there yet..... if a decision had to be made at this time, I'd say no. I think it would be a disappointment if Collins' first-year contributions weren't greater than Wilson's from 2012"

Reiss calls the Harmon pick a "strange one". "My best guess is that it's Bill Belichick looking at things differently from most teams. Part of that opinion is based on talking with people from other teams. In the case of Harmon, I also wouldn't be surprised if Belichick viewed things differently from many on his own staff, but as the personnel chief, that's his right. Knowing that Belichick stresses the motto "do your job" and everyone should know/execute their clearly defined role, I just wonder if anyone in the room stops Belichick before making a pick like Tavon Wilson or Duron Harmon and says, "Bill, we could probably get this guy a little later and get some better value elsewhere." The Harmon pick was a real outlier, and with the limited information I have, comes across as something that would have been done unilaterally more than as a consensus."

He does praise the 2 WR picks. This is a Reiss contribution really worth reading for those looking for insights.

That article doesn't even say what you claim.

"...time will tell if the Patriots' draft is indeed mediocre. It's always tough to tell a few days after the fact, especially when a team trades down like the Patriots did. One thing I've noticed over the years is that when a team trades up and goes to get a player, it almost always results in rave reviews. Contrary to that, when a team trades down, it seldom does."

Your selective editing to the contrary, all Reiss is saying in that article is that IF we see the same struggles as in recent years, it WILL BE a disappointment - and not the draft itself, but the defense as a whole. The only reason Reiss used the word "mediocre" is because that was the premise of the question he was asked - and is you read the first line of the response, which I posted here, you'll see that he is specifically NOT saying that.

Read it again.

 

[Kontradiction]

Let's start from the widely recognized first year in the re-building process, 2008. The following are the DB selections with round and result included. Let's see if it's fair for anyone to question BB's decisions following the selections of DB's...

2008:
1. Terrence Wheatley (2) - Bust/No longer on team
2. Jonathan Wilhite (4) - Bust/No longer on team

2009:
1. Patrick Chung (1) - Bust/No longer on team
2. Darius Butler (2) - Bust/No longer on team

2010:
1. Devin McCourty (1) - Starting safety

2011:
1. Ras-I Dowling (2) - To date, has not played a full season/Trending bust
2. Malcolm Williams (6) - Special teamer

I'm not going to include the Tavon Wilson or Dennard picks because the jury is still out. Wilson, in particular, could still wipe away the mental mistakes that put him on the bench last season. But I considered everything up until 2011 fair game. Let's have a look. The team, since 2008, has drafted seven DB's, most of whom were in the first four rounds, where you're still pulling the trigger hoping for a starter out of that pick. Of those seven, four are busts and are no longer one the team. One is a starting safety that converted over from corner because he couldn't turn his head in press man. One is an injury plagued, trending bust whom most of us (even if we won't admit it) would be surprised if he wasn't cut during TC. The last is a late round special teamer (which was about the most anyone would expect).

Last year, the team took Tavon Wilson, unexpectedly, with their second round pick. To date, he's most known for blowing the exact same coverage on pretty much the exact same play in pretty close succession and then being somewhat of a ghost the rest of the season. Mental mistakes, even as a rookie, are usually the best way to be sat down by BB, and this certainly appears from the outside to be what happened. On the final day of the draft, the team selected Dennard, a hard nosed CB that excels in press man. This appeared to be a smashing success last year after Talib was brought in.

Now to the topic at hand: the reach of Harmon. First and foremost, the selection of Harmon may not bode well for what the team thinks of Wilson. Secondly, it's widely considered a reach. Even if you have your reasons for believing that the team *should* have reached for Harmon (i.e. - they must see something we don't/they must be worried another team would have got him), it's a pretty clear consensus that he was a reach based upon projections and where his fellow safeties went vs. where they were projected. Either way, it's somewhat of a disturbing trend, and Reiss has the right to question it. For a coach who incorporates a mixture of need vs. best available into how he drafts, this is now the second year in a row that he's made a big reach for need. He's reached before, yes. But never on the same position two years in a row... and multiple rounds up for talent that was either considered a late pick or a UDFA. The biggest problem that I have with Reiss in this article isn't that he questions the thought process and the selection. The selections of DB's over the years open themselves up for questioning. It's that he wavers. He starts out full of conviction, then seems to remember that he needs to say some good things to keep the relationship that he has with the Patriots intact, then ends the article on a weak note.

And look, this may come off as me slamming Belichick. I'm not. The guy is the best coach in the league, bar none. But some of his decisions as a personnel guy, particularly in the "re-building" era are head scratchers. They're also part of the reason why this team hasn't brought home the Lombardi Trophy since 2004.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

In fairness, McCourty's conversion to safety had about 7 million variables, it was not the broad, "he's terrible" brush some are painting that scenario with. The fact remains that the DB drafting has been pretty poor, made worse by the front 7 drafting being terrible or nonexistent for large spells.

 

[Kontradiction]

In fairness, McCourty's conversion to safety had about 7 million variables, it was not the broad, "he's terrible" brush some are painting that scenario with. The fact remains that the DB drafting has been pretty poor, made worse by the front 7 drafting being terrible or nonexistent for large spells.

I don't think he was terrible. He was a serviceable corner, but his biggest problem was either the inability or fear to get his head around in press-man, which the team started playing more of starting in 2011. Once Talib came aboard, the more natural position for McCourty became safety since he can usually have his head toward the play there and be in better position to make plays on the ball, given his skillset.

 

[chasa]

2008:
unhappiness
.

in 2008 there were 30 CB's drafted Only 2 of those were pro bowlers
in 2009 35 CB were drafted None are pro bowlers
in 2010 33 CB were drafted, only 1 was a probowler (mccourty)
in 2011 39 CB were drafted, 1 pro bowler
in 2012 31 CB were drafter, none of which are probowlers

So yeah we have whiffed on 4-5 DB's since 2008 but its not like we missed out on an abundance of super talented players.

None of those CB's taken that made probowls were selected after the patriots in the first round.

BB does the best he can with what he has and the position he is in every year to select. short of Colting it for a season i dont see us getting a shot at a real blue chipper

 

[Kontradiction]

in 2008 there were 30 CB's drafted Only 2 of those were pro bowlers
in 2009 35 CB were drafted None are pro bowlers
in 2010 33 CB were drafted, only 1 was a probowler (mccourty)
in 2011 39 CB were drafted, 1 pro bowler
in 2012 31 CB were drafter, none of which are probowlers

So yeah we have whiffed on 4-5 DB's since 2008 but its not like we missed out on an abundance of super talented players.

None of those CB's taken that made probowls were selected after the patriots in the first round.

BB does the best he can with what he has and the position he is in every year to select. short of Colting it for a season i dont see us getting a shot at a real blue chipper

When you limit it to Pro Bowlers, it's pretty easy to excuse the misses DB's, particularly during that period. When you include guys like, let's say, Lardarius Webb (the first example that comes off the top of my head), it becomes much harder to excuse the misses.

In short, the team didn't need Pro Bowlers during that period. It would have been nice. But all they really needed were starting caliber CB's and S's. Instead, they did what I listed, the result of which caused BB to have to take a chance on Talib last season just to fix the mess that the misses created.

 

[IllegalContact]

The scramble at safety since Harrison is the problem...meriweather, Chung, Gregory.....it's a problem when you can't get better than that.

However, without citing specific possibilities, the argument is lame. Was there a safety better than Wilson drafted after him last year?

 

[chasa]

When you limit it to Pro Bowlers, it's pretty easy to excuse the misses DB's, particularly during that period. When you include guys like, let's say, Lardarius Webb (the first example that comes off the top of my head), it becomes much harder to excuse the misses.

In short, the team didn't need Pro Bowlers during that period. It would have been nice. But all they really needed were starting caliber CB's and S's. Instead, they did what I listed. The result of which caused BB to have to take a chance on Talib last season just to fix the mess that the misses created.

at that point you need to question if it was Webb doing the heavy lifting, or did he benefit from playing as part of a complete defensive unit.

The patriots have **** as pass rushers, this means QB's can sit back and make good throws, which means a CB needs to cover longer. If you have an attacking defensive line that consistently gets to the QB its going to make your CB look a lot better.

 

[Kontradiction]

at that point you need to question if it was Webb doing the heavy lifting, or did he benefit from playing as part of a complete defensive unit.

I don't want to get this conversation going down the road of Lardarius Webb. I simply used him as a reference since he was the first guy that came off the top of my head without having to do research. I'll just say that, pre-injury, he looked like a very talented corner for Baltimore and a relative steal for where he was drafted.

The patriots have **** as pass rushers, this means QB's can sit back and make good throws, which means a CB needs to cover longer. If you have an attacking defensive line that consistently gets to the QB its going to make your CB look a lot better.

I won't disagree here. A pass rushing DE was one of my bigger needs going into this draft. BB agreed, seemingly. That said, the back end was still a mess. BB seemingly agreed with that as well when he brought Talib in to fix the CB situation and moved McCourty to safety to help remedy that situation. The bad or non-existant pass rush mixed in with the mess in the back end has been one of the reasons for the low rank in total defense the last few years. It's a testement to BB the coach and defensive guru that these units finished with a somewhat respectable ranking in regard to scoring defense.

 

[chasa]

I was just trying to put into perspective that people go around saying how bad BB has drafted, when really there have been 5-8 good back end players drafted in 5 years total out of more than a hundred.

BB has done as good a job as he can picking in the bottom 4-5 for almost an entire decade. Al Davis he is not.

 

[Kontradiction]

I was just trying to put into perspective that people go around saying how bad BB has drafted, when really there have been 5-8 good back end players drafted in 5 years total out of more than a hundred.

BB has done as good a job as he can picking in the bottom 4-5 for almost an entire decade. Al Davis he is not.

You're pretty much making things up now. There have been quite a bit more than 5-8 good back end players selected. The team, for instance, could have had Tyvon Branch in the 4th round in 2008 (again, off the top of my head) instead of Wheatley in the second. I believe Terrell Thomas went right after Wheatley. He would have made more of an immediate impact than Wheatley did, although he has had some horrific luck with injuries since. Would it really be necessary for me to go year by year listing the "could have had's" with the players we chose in the back end, or do you get the point?

 

[AzPatsFan]

Good. Dis him. Did all you Draftniks and BB haters have a good time? Did you get it out of your system? Does it change anything a mere iota?

The simple fact remains is that BB has not had a losing season since his first year over a decade ago.

During that time he has never won less than 10 games a season, even when Tom Brady was insjured in the first quarter of the first game of a lost season. He only went 11-5 with a QB that hadn't played a game since high school.

He has won 5 Hunt Trophies and sent his team to 5 Superbowls.

What an increadibly poor performance! Get the Tar and Feathers !! Time to run him out of town on a rail !!!

 

[cstjohn17]

The simple fact remains is that BB has not had a losing season since his first year over a decade ago.

BB coaching is goodly

BB drafting is better than league average

Watching BB draft is frustrating

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Yup. Belichick has had over 5 years to completely revamp a defense in his own mold. Scouts be damned, Belichick makes the final picks. They traded up twice last year in the draft, and they've drafted 2nd-round defensive players for several years. Belichick over the last 5 years has had the draft ammunition in terms of picks to trade up, down, whatever to grab the guys who can make an impact. If the Pats trot out yet another well below-average defense this season there is no one in the world to blame other than Bill Belichick. He constructed this as he saw fit. No excuses.

Your main problem seems to revolve around the fact that you have absolutely zero ability to evaluate what has happened.

Without that ability, a poster is left to makec ignorant comments deviod of context.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

This week's Mailbag called by Mike Reiss is very revealing. One of the reporters with excellent access in the Pats organization, he openly says he can't explain, much less defend, BB's picks like Wilson last year or Harmon this year. Reiss uses strong language -- for a cautious, normally deferential reporter.

"Here's the bottom-line thought: If the Patriots' defense doesn't turn a more decisive corner, and we're seeing some of the same struggles in 2013 as we've seen in recent years, it will be a big disappointment. Some hard questions would have to be asked."
New England Patriots Mailbag: Second-guessing Bill Belichick's draft - ESPN Boston

On Tavon Wilson, last year's #48 pick, he says:
"any team picking 48th overall wants to land a starter at that spot, and Wilson is not there yet..... if a decision had to be made at this time, I'd say no. I think it would be a disappointment if Collins' first-year contributions weren't greater than Wilson's from 2012"

Reiss calls the Harmon pick a "strange one". "My best guess is that it's Bill Belichick looking at things differently from most teams. Part of that opinion is based on talking with people from other teams. In the case of Harmon, I also wouldn't be surprised if Belichick viewed things differently from many on his own staff, but as the personnel chief, that's his right. Knowing that Belichick stresses the motto "do your job" and everyone should know/execute their clearly defined role, I just wonder if anyone in the room stops Belichick before making a pick like Tavon Wilson or Duron Harmon and says, "Bill, we could probably get this guy a little later and get some better value elsewhere." The Harmon pick was a real outlier, and with the limited information I have, comes across as something that would have been done unilaterally more than as a consensus."

He does praise the 2 WR picks. This is a Reiss contribution really worth reading for those looking for insights.

This is actually easy to explain.

If you would just admit your cluelessness.....maybe an explanation will be provided.

 

[Kontradiction]

This is actually easy to explain.

If you would just admit your cluelessness.....maybe an explanation will be provided.

^^ I guess I should point this out...

Hey mods, this guy is patsfaninpittsburgh. He's now snuck back onto a forum that he was banned from (LOL, by the way) and is pretty much doing the same crap that got him banned in the first place, which is launching useless ad hominem attacks without much counter point behind them which, in turn, lead the thread down an equally useless path. Think we can ban him again?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Expecting a 48th overall pick to start immediately is asking a bit much IMO. I would expect them to be starting or playing key snaps by year 2 or 3 so there is still time on Tavon. We don't really know until it plays out.

Mankins, Branch, Ridley were all headscratchers at where they were taken but I'm glad BB didn't risk someone else snatching them. Of course they don't ALL work out, that's just how it is with drafting but until we see what some of these reaches are truly capable of you can't blast or praise any of them.

 

[chasa]

You're pretty much making things up now. There have been quite a bit more than 5-8 good back end players selected. The team, for instance, could have had Tyvon Branch in the 4th round in 2008 (again, off the top of my head) instead of Wheatley in the second. I believe Terrell Thomas went right after Wheatley. He would have made more of an immediate impact than Wheatley did, although he has had some horrific luck with injuries since. Would it really be necessary for me to go year by year listing the "could have had's" with the players we chose in the back end, or do you get the point?

No, what would be nice is if you went back, look at all the could of hads, and also list all of the coaches that also passed on them. 50/50 hindsight is a hell of a thing, what with you getting to sit in your comfortable recliner, beer in hand, talking **** about one of the best coach/gm in nfl history. a first ballot hall of famer, who constantly gets **** on by "fans" because he doesn't draft with a perfect record.

Show me 5 GMs who has done better over the last 10 years, then we can talk about how horrible he is.

 

[BrickPat]

The bottom line is who is responsible for selecting and coaching personnel?

At the risk of being Captain Obvious none of us is as qualified as BB to judge his selections but its not unreasonable to comment about the results. The secondary was too bad for too long, and many of the picks highlighted by other posters did nothing to improve it. BB has to take a significant measure of responsibility for that. Note that is not saying BB sucks by default.

Good news is that its trending upward with the (re) signing of Talib, emergence of Dennard and DM looking more comfortable at safety...I'm still not sold on Arrington but we'll see.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Expecting a 48th overall pick to start immediately is asking a bit much IMO. I would expect them to be starting or playing key snaps by year 2 or 3 so there is still time on Tavon. We don't really know until it plays out.

Mankins, Branch, Ridley were all headscratchers at where they were taken but I'm glad BB didn't risk someone else snatching them. Of course they don't ALL work out, that's just how it is with drafting but until we see what some of these reaches are truly capable of you can't blast or praise any of them.

The answer isn't really Tavon Wilson, the answer is why he was picked and why pundits and Kontradiction can't grasp things.

Pundits have to look at hundreds of players and balance with 32 team needs. This volume of work means that the evaluation would be dictated by a players ability to "jump out on film".

The general development of football today is toward having "players".

Offense is moving from RB/FB/TE/WR to "skill positions".

This trend is happening of defense with LB/CB/SF morphing toward "playing in space".

BB is now the forefront of this. At Illinois, Wilson was exactly this type in the secondary. This is why he would be targeted.

It's also a role that would least likely "jump out on film". Therefore, one would expect him to not be noticed.

Before 2010, BB was notorious for not being able to draft TE's despite repeated attempts. Why did he do this?

Now the two TE concept is the rage of the league.

Absent certain "contributors" here, the answers are obvious to a three year old.

The Rutgers picks are also obvious. Schiano and Belichick are close football collaborators. Why it's so hard to grasp that close collaboration organizations wouldn't align on talent is amazing.