Again, this year I think that the value from 21-34 is going to be nearly the same as from 11-20.
Assume that Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Crabtree, Aaron Curry, BJ Raji and Brian Orapko are all top 10 locks. That's 8 players.
Then consider the following players:
1. Michael Oher, OT - could go anywhere from Jacksonville at #8 to the 20's.
2. Andre Smith, OT - could go anywhere from Cincinnati at #6 to the end of the 1st round.
3. Chris Wells, RB - could go anywhere from Cincinnati at #6 to the early 2nd round.
4. Knowshon Moreno, RB - could go anywhere from around 14 to the early 2nd round.
5. Jeremy Maclin, WR - could go anywhere from Oakland at #7 to the 20's.
6. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR - could go from the teens to the early 2nd round.
7. Malcolm Jenkins, CB - could go top 10 but could go in the 20's; Pats are evaluating him
8. Everette Brown, DE/OLB - could go top 10 but could realistically fall as low as the early 20's
9. Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB - could go top 10 but could easily fall in the 20's
10. Robert Ayers, DE - some have him going top 10, but could fall to the late 1st/early 2nd round
11. Tyson Jackson, DE - could go as high as Denver at #12, or could fall to the late 1st/early 2nd round
12. Rey Maualuga, ILB - could go as high as Denver at #12, or could fall to the late 1st/early 2nd round
13. Brian Cushing, LB - could go anywhere from #13 to #40
14. Clay Matthews, LB - could go anywhere from #13 to #40
With the 8 players listed above, that brings thru pick 22, up to the Pats at #23. At least some of this players are likely to be available at #23. And, are these 14 players clearly better than the following 14 players, at least some of whom should be available at #34:
1. Josh Freeman, QB - could go from about #10 to #33.
2. Donald Brown, RB - could go from about #20 to #50.
3. Hakeem Nicks, WR - could go from about #18 to #40.
4. Percy Harvin, WR - could go from about #18 to #40.
5. Kenny Britt, WR - could go from about #25 to #50.
6. William Beatty, OT - could go from about #20 to #40.
7. Eben Britton, OT - could go from about #18 to #40.
8. Jarron Gilbert, DE - could go from about #23 to #50.
9. Michael Johnson, DE/LB - could go from about #20 to #50.
10. Connor Barwin, DE/OLB - could go from about #20 to #40.
11. Larry English, DE/OLB - could go form about #18 to #40.
12. Vontae Davis, CB - could go from about #14 to #40.
13. Darius Butler, CB - could go from about #20 to #40.
14. Louis Delmas, S - could go from about #20 to #50.
I think there is terrific value in this draft from 20-50. There may be poor value from 10-20, because there is little separation between who you will get at #10 and who you might be able to get at 20, 30, or even in the 40's. Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown could go around 10-11 and turn out to not be as good as Michael Johnson and Larry English, for example.
That's why I don't really see trading up from #23, unless a really top player falls out of the top 10 (which I doubt) or the Pats identify someone they really like and want for their system. I see trading around within the 20-50 range, possibly trading up from 47 or 58, and possibly trading a mid-2nd round pick into 2010.