The Way We Hear It - Maualuga

[cstjohn17]

Interesting article by Nolan Nawrocki on Rey Maualuga today, subtitled "Maualuga's Bust Factor Scares NFL Teams":

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

Some notable quotes:

"'He has a high bust factor,' said one NFL executive responsible for stacking his team's draft board. 'There is a lot there that scares me. There is a right price for everyone, but I would not feel comfortable taking him in the first round where we are picking. The money is too great. You cannot afford to make mistakes and expect to recover from them.'"

I have been listening to some NFL Draft Podcasts (yes, I know a cry for help, etc.). What can I say? I gots the bug.

But enough about me...

Something interesting the Kiper said was that all the time he has coaches and scouts down grade a player they like so they can create a negative buzz hoping a player may fall. He also mentioned that it is more common now because of the reach of certain media members (Kiper, Mayock, McShay, etc.) As the draft has become more of a media item teams are finding ways to try and manipulate the process.

Makes you happy to know that BB and Ernie are locked in a room some where with 2 gallons of coffee and a remote control, no showers, no small talk, no draft websites, just film study and an odd smell.

 

[mayoclinic]

Slightly different reports from Todd McShay and Nolan Nawrocki on Maualuga's pro day yesterday.

According to McShay, "The drama around Maualuga's workout built throughout the afternoon. He didn't run the 40-yard dash early on with his teammates in order to make sure the hamstring he injured at the combine would hold up throughout position drills. Maualuga had a good-but-not great showing in drills, looking a bit stiff in his coverage drops, but that is to be expected form a middle linebacker his size. He did weigh in under 250 pounds, though, and eased concerns that he might have gained weight while nursing the injury. It was his 40 that was the most anticipated part of the workout, however, after Maualuga clocked in at 4.91 seconds on his lone attempt at the combine. Maualuga finally ran by himself at the very end of the workout with everyone gathered around and he did not disappoint. His times ranged from 4.59 to 4.71 according to the scouts we talked to, re-affirming his straight-line speed and burst and answering any lingering questions. The day ended with USC coach Pete Carroll jogging to scouts to get the times, conferring with Maualuga and then turning to the assembled throng and saying, 'That's it, guys,' as if to tell everyone they had gotten what they came for."

McShay called all 3 USC linebackers top 25 picks.

QB Mark Sanchez, ILB Rey Maualuga answer questions at USC pro day - ESPN

Nawrocki was less enthusiastic and raised concerns about Maualuga's agility in positional drills: "Maualuga, who worked out fully for scouts after pulling up with a hamstring injury in the 40-yard dash at the Combine, appeared noticeably more lean and compact, being clocked at 4.68 and 4.7 in the 40 by one veteran trigger. However, evaluators were not impressed by Maualuga's 'football movement,' with one saying he was 'not clean enough' to warrant consideration by their team."

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

 

[captain stone]

You absolutely can, whether it be for scheme (Texas Tech, Cal, or Utah, which all run fluky offenses that won't work in the NFL), coaching (Belichick is more comfortable with some NCAA coaching staffs than others), or recruiting style (Virginia Tech, Miami back in the day with the thugs, or Ohio State for the mental midgets, or USC, which seems every year to be filled with football players who commit there primarily for the blonde and beach lifestyle and aren't committed to the game)

You'd be foolish to make it a blanket statement (All USC players will fail), but these things happen too often to be coincidental, and smart GMs take it into consideration.

Don't forget U of Florida WRs.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Again, this year I think that the value from 21-34 is going to be nearly the same as from 11-20.

Assume that Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Crabtree, Aaron Curry, BJ Raji and Brian Orapko are all top 10 locks. That's 8 players.

Then consider the following players:

1. Michael Oher, OT - could go anywhere from Jacksonville at #8 to the 20's.
2. Andre Smith, OT - could go anywhere from Cincinnati at #6 to the end of the 1st round.
3. Chris Wells, RB - could go anywhere from Cincinnati at #6 to the early 2nd round.
4. Knowshon Moreno, RB - could go anywhere from around 14 to the early 2nd round.
5. Jeremy Maclin, WR - could go anywhere from Oakland at #7 to the 20's.
6. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR - could go from the teens to the early 2nd round.
7. Malcolm Jenkins, CB - could go top 10 but could go in the 20's; Pats are evaluating him
8. Everette Brown, DE/OLB - could go top 10 but could realistically fall as low as the early 20's
9. Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB - could go top 10 but could easily fall in the 20's
10. Robert Ayers, DE - some have him going top 10, but could fall to the late 1st/early 2nd round
11. Tyson Jackson, DE - could go as high as Denver at #12, or could fall to the late 1st/early 2nd round
12. Rey Maualuga, ILB - could go as high as Denver at #12, or could fall to the late 1st/early 2nd round
13. Brian Cushing, LB - could go anywhere from #13 to #40
14. Clay Matthews, LB - could go anywhere from #13 to #40

With the 8 players listed above, that brings thru pick 22, up to the Pats at #23. At least some of this players are likely to be available at #23. And, are these 14 players clearly better than the following 14 players, at least some of whom should be available at #34:

1. Josh Freeman, QB - could go from about #10 to #33.
2. Donald Brown, RB - could go from about #20 to #50.
3. Hakeem Nicks, WR - could go from about #18 to #40.
4. Percy Harvin, WR - could go from about #18 to #40.
5. Kenny Britt, WR - could go from about #25 to #50.
6. William Beatty, OT - could go from about #20 to #40.
7. Eben Britton, OT - could go from about #18 to #40.
8. Jarron Gilbert, DE - could go from about #23 to #50.
9. Michael Johnson, DE/LB - could go from about #20 to #50.
10. Connor Barwin, DE/OLB - could go from about #20 to #40.
11. Larry English, DE/OLB - could go form about #18 to #40.
12. Vontae Davis, CB - could go from about #14 to #40.
13. Darius Butler, CB - could go from about #20 to #40.
14. Louis Delmas, S - could go from about #20 to #50.

I think there is terrific value in this draft from 20-50. There may be poor value from 10-20, because there is little separation between who you will get at #10 and who you might be able to get at 20, 30, or even in the 40's. Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown could go around 10-11 and turn out to not be as good as Michael Johnson and Larry English, for example.

That's why I don't really see trading up from #23, unless a really top player falls out of the top 10 (which I doubt) or the Pats identify someone they really like and want for their system. I see trading around within the 20-50 range, possibly trading up from 47 or 58, and possibly trading a mid-2nd round pick into 2010.

Apt analysis but you didn't carry it far enough to the logical end. If there are lots of first rounders in the second round this year, take them. They are outstanding value.

Trade this year third for a next year second; or a fourth for next year third. Probably the later. Because this years third could be a normal year second.

 

[bakes781]

Depends on to whom we trade the pick. Wouldn't be such a great deal if we trade it to the Steelers or the Colts or the Giants.

You're right. So we look to deal with say the Saints. We exchanged #1s last year. They offer us a 4th this year and 1st in 2010. That would put them just ahead of their divisional rival Atlanta who both share a need at OLB.

I know a lot of folks see it this way, but I really don't. Just because it's hard to decide doesn't mean there's poor value, or that we should let other teams make the choice for us or hope that the choice will be clearer next year. It's like being on Let's Make a Deal, where door #1 is opened to reveal a Porsche, and door #2 is a Mercedes, and you're so torn you say "I'll take whatever's behind door #3."

That doesn't mean #23 has to be an OLB by any means. If there's greater value at another position, terrific. I just don't think you pass on taking your pick of a strong OLBs class just because there are a lot of choices. (Plus I strongly suspect that the Pats have a shorter list of options than a fan might!)

I'm low key so I'd prefer a Bonneville myself

My fear would be that they do value one more highly than the rest and trade away that monopoly in the 2nd round just to get a Barwin(or similarly in value) whom just as easily coulda been had at #34.

To me there's a top 20 or prospects with a 1st round grade.

Then there's a notch below from 20-50 that I would all consider strong 2nd round value.

 

[mayoclinic]

Apt analysis but you didn't carry it far enough to the logical end. If there are lots of first rounders in the second round this year, take them. They are outstanding value.

Trade this year third for a next year second; or a fourth for next year third. Probably the later. Because this years third could be a normal year second.

I'm quite content to pile up as many near-1st round values in the 2nd round as possible, as long as they last. I have no problem getting 4 players who I consider 1st or near-1st round values (such as Barwin, Beatty, Delmas and Gilbert for me; you can substitute your own preferred targets if you life). Why trade into 2010 for picks that you can trade up to target DE or OT if you can get a 1st round caliber 3-4 DE and potential franchise LT in this draft?

But the draft may not work out that way, and trading into 2010 is a nice alternative. Every team's value list will be different, so at a mid-2nd level such as 45 or 47 there may be players worth another team trading up for, but no one sufficiently high on our board to prohibit trading. This has been the case in several mocks so far.

 

[TriplecHamp]

You absolutely can, whether it be for scheme (Texas Tech, Cal, or Utah, which all run fluky offenses that won't work in the NFL), coaching (Belichick is more comfortable with some NCAA coaching staffs than others), or recruiting style (Virginia Tech, Miami back in the day with the thugs, or Ohio State for the mental midgets, or USC, which seems every year to be filled with football players who commit there primarily for the blonde and beach lifestyle and aren't committed to the game)

You'd be foolish to make it a blanket statement (All USC players will fail), but these things happen too often to be coincidental, and smart GMs take it into consideration.

By the way, my favorite USC player this year is Cary Harris. Followed by Fili Moala.

But that is steriotyping, I agree that you cant look at numbers from a Hawaii QB or a TT QB because they use a run and shoot type spread offense that can inflate numbers. What if Crabtree went to Texas instead of TT? He would still be regarded as a top ten pick because of his ability to dominate opposing Defenses. Good players and overrated players can come out of diffrent schemes, that is why you have things like the senoir bowl and the combine so players can come and showcase these skills on a even playing field. How can you say a guy like Polamalu dosnt have love for the game, how can you say Ed Reed is a thug? This is steriotyping. Diffrent players go to diffrent colleges for different reasons. Sometimes players can get caught up in the moment and make mistakes.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

But that is steriotyping, I agree that you cant look at numbers from a Hawaii QB or a TT QB because they use a run and shoot type spread offense that can inflate numbers. What if Crabtree went to Texas instead of TT? He would still be regarded as a top ten pick because of his ability to dominate opposing Defenses. Good players and overrated players can come out of diffrent schemes, that is why you have things like the senoir bowl and the combine so players can come and showcase these skills on a even playing field. How can you say a guy like Polamalu dosnt have love for the game, how can you say Ed Reed is a thug? This is steriotyping. Diffrent players go to diffrent colleges for different reasons. Sometimes players can get caught up in the moment and make mistakes.

Stereotyping works in a significant portion of cases, that's what often makes it a stereotype. That said, it should never be a hard and fast rule since you trap yourself into the stereotype and become inflexible in your thinking, becoming reliant on the stereotype which we all know leads to epic fail.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Maualuga

Summation: He doesn't do two things I look for in a NE LB; 1. he doesn't find the ball well in trash; 2. he doesn't square-up and engage OL, instead he tries to get around them and winds up blocked out of the play. I'm not as concerned for him as a 3rd down player since he surprises me with his ball awareness in coverage everytime I see him, given how badly he struggles finding the ball on run plays. I truly do not consider him a good fit for NE.

Cushing

Summation: 4-3 teams will value him at least a round earlier than I think his value for NE starts to balance out. Good kid, I like him, but not before the mid-2nd at the earliest.

Matthews

Summation: He's the right weight for an ILB, but he doesn't stack and shed the way NE uses their ILBs. If he drops to the mid-2nd, he's getting into the price range I'd set on him. 4-3 teams are going to want him a round earlier. He's playing too light for an OLB.

I pretty much agree with these thoughts. I think the USC linebackers on the whole are overrated and Matthews might turn out to be the best of them. I'd rather wait till the 2nd round before taking a risk on one of those guys.

I'm more curious to hear your evaluatin on Laurinitis for the Pats 3-4. That's another guy I feel is a 2nd round value for the Pats rather than a 1st.

 

[alvinnf]

The real question, is. Is there one of the corps that makes the others better?
If you subtracted one would the other players be better or slightly better than mediocre, and if so Who is it?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think Maualuga is the only ILB that fits what the Pats need next to Mayo. People are worried about him only being a 2down lb but is that so bad? We need somebody to replace Tedy in that position, even if Mau only becomes a 2down lb we have Guyton that could play on passing downs while Mau helps being that thumper lb we havent had since Ted Johnson. Mayo Muauluga and Guyton could be a nice trio for a long time to come. Mayo the 3down lb who can do it all, Mau the thumper who can play the run and hit like a ton of bricks and is a faster version of Ted J, and Guyton who has great speed and can play on passing downs.

If Mau is there at 23 and if the Pats like him I hope they get him even if Barwin is there, Barwin could last until 34 but even if he dont im sure a Clay Matthews or English, Brown, or Maybin will still be available.

Another guy that I project could be a two down ILB run stuffer on the side of Mayo is Kruger of Utah. Plus he is a little better in coverage than ReyMal.

 

[JMarr]

You absolutely can, whether it be for scheme (Texas Tech, Cal, or Utah, which all run fluky offenses that won't work in the NFL), coaching (Belichick is more comfortable with some NCAA coaching staffs than others), or recruiting style (Virginia Tech, Miami back in the day with the thugs, or Ohio State for the mental midgets, or USC, which seems every year to be filled with football players who commit there primarily for the blonde and beach lifestyle and aren't committed to the game)

You'd be foolish to make it a blanket statement (All USC players will fail), but these things happen too often to be coincidental, and smart GMs take it into consideration.

But really you are making blanket statements, that's the problem. True, one would be an absolute moron to completely overlook Texas Tech's gadget offense when evaluating Graham Harrell as a QB. You would also be a fool for using it to downgrade a player like Crabtree who, if you had watched him would know that their scheme had nothing to do with his ability as a football player--only with his stats. Everything is relative.

It's okay to say that the offense that a player played in in college might make you want to take a closer look at him in terms of his talent traslating to the next level. It's not okay to downgrade a player just because he happened to play in a particular scheme. Texas A&M's Steven McGee might be a great example of this.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm more curious to hear your evaluatin on Laurinitis for the Pats 3-4. That's another guy I feel is a 2nd round value for the Pats rather than a 1st.

I wouldn't consider him before the second round, but by then other ILB prospects carrying lower round projections start making more sense.

Laurinaitis is a slower, less physical version of Mayo and Guyton. NE can find similar, if more physical, players later in the draft - and faster and more physical playmakers (a knock on JL) at a better price. I like the kid, but like Posluzney a couple years back, he belongs in a 4-3 protected by DL.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I wouldn't consider him before the second round, but by then other ILB prospects carrying lower round projections start making more sense.

Laurinaitis is a slower, less physical version of Mayo and Guyton. NE can find similar, if more physical, players later in the draft - and faster and more physical playmakers (a knock on JL) at a better price. I like the kid, but like Posluzney a couple years back, he belongs in a 4-3 protected by DL.

Wow you echoed my thoughts. I was about to say he reminded me of a Poz type player, but didn't know if I was underrating Laurinitis too much by making that comparison. Poz has been doing alright in a 4-3 for Buffalo, but I don't think he'd enjoy nearly as much success in a 3-4 system.

I find myself agreeing with you a lot for this year's draft. Watch us draft some tight end and miss out on Barwin now!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Watch us draft some tight end and miss out on Barwin now!

That would make the naysayers happy at least.

 

[BadMoFo]

Another guy that I project could be a two down ILB run stuffer on the side of Mayo is Kruger of Utah. Plus he is a little better in coverage than ReyMal.

I really don't want to see another Dan Klecko experiment. I want to see someone who has played the position throughout college.

Also, what are you basing Kruger's coverage abilities on? The guy played defensive end in college.

 

[mayoclinic]

I really don't want to see another Dan Klecko experiment. I want to see someone who has played the position throughout college.

Also, what are you basing Kruger's coverage abilities on? The guy played defensive end in college.

Kruger looked awfully stiff at the combine and didn't do well in space during the drills. I had had my hopes for him before then, but he looked like a pure 4-3 DE to me.

 

[mayoclinic]

Per Ed Thompson at Scout.com, Maualuga has 7 visits lined up in the next 2 weeks with Atlanta (yesterday, April 4), San Francisco (April 6), Miami, San Diego, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tennessee and New Orleans. That will take him essentially up to one week before the draft.

Scout.com: Seven Visits In Two Weeks for Maualuga

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson..they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour, who had 1 sacks last season in the pass-happy SEC and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.
- Ron Borges.

This is soooo priceless Maverick!!! Great quote. Alas, this is what the draft guides were telling us and every on this board and otherwise were scratching their heads...until we saw Seymour in pre-season...