Rolling assets to the next season

[supafly]

The $119.5 million is based upon the Top 51 accounting rules not the Top 53 which also includes the injured reserve list, physically unable to perform list, practice squad, et cetera.

I don't really know what the point of this comment is in regard to my stating that there will be other ways to raise their available cap money prior to free agency?

It's been over a year since the New England Patriots cut Jonathan Fanene and the New England Patriots have yet to recover a single penny of Fanene's signing bonus. As for Aaron Hernandez's signing bonus, that will probably be tied up in the courts for years especially when all the appeals have been exhausted.

The Fanane court hearing didn't even happen until 6 weeks ago, so the ruling hasn't been made yet. The possibility exists and that was my point.

I doubt the New England Patriot would cut Dan Connolly since the New England Patriots currently don't have a dedicated backup center worth a damn.

You can believe this if you wish, but I have a hard time believing that we'll be giving Wendell a new pact while paying Connelly to be the weakest link on the line again next season at over 3 million dollars in his last year.

He and Gregory are excellent examples of 2 players who cost too much and are in danger of being cut for 2014.

The NEP will likely be selecting a young draft pick to replace Connelly and have made more than due in the past "without a capable backup center." In 2011 when we went to the SB we had 3 or 4 different guys play at the position of center.

Every year is different, so I see no relationship to paying Connelly 3 million + in the final year of his pact if they don't plan on keeping him with the fact that they currently don't have adequate depth on Sept.6, 2013. That doesn't have anything to do with anything for the upcoming year of 2014.

The factors that will come into play towards keeping Connelly at 3 million + will be whether or not they resign Wendell, whether or not they plan on drafting an interior lineman or selecting one in FA, how much the pupils succeed this year at the Dante school of development, and if they plan on keeping Connelly past 2013 on a new deal.

 

[ATippett56]

I don't really know what the point of this comment is in regard to my stating that there will be other ways to raise their available cap money prior to free agency?

The list of pending New England Patriots unrestricted free agents for the 2015 NFL Season are far more impressive than the list of New England Patriots unrestricted free agents for the 2014 NFL Season. Kicking the can down the road only exacerbates the salary cap situation for the 2015 NFL Season.

The Fanane court hearing didn't even happen until 6 weeks ago, so the ruling hasn't been made yet. The possibility exists and that was my point.

The New England Patriots may not receive even a penny in compensation or only one-third of the original signing bonus.

You can believe this if you wish, but I have a hard time believing that we'll be giving Wendell a new pact while paying Connelly to be the weakest link on the line again next season at over 3 million dollars in his last year.

You can believe what you wish.

He and Gregory are excellent examples of 2 players who cost too much and are in danger of being cut for 2014.

Connolly is competent, I can't say the same about Gregory.

The NEP will likely be selecting a young draft pick to replace Connelly and have made more than due in the past "without a capable backup center." In 2011 when we went to the SB we had 3 or 4 different guys play at the position of center.

A young draft pick may end up like Rich Ohrnberger, a wasted draft pick. There are no guarantees with the NFL Draft. As for 2011, calendar year 2011 has no bearing whatsoever to calendar year 2014.

 

[supafly]

The list of pending New England Patriots unrestricted free agents for the 2015 NFL Season are far more impressive than the list of New England Patriots unrestricted free agents for the 2014 NFL Season. Kicking the can down the road only exacerbates the salary cap situation for the 2015 NFL Season.

You're worried about 2 yrs down the road already? How do you know that the cap won't have jumped up 6-7 million dollars by 2015?

As far as the NEP go, we are one of the better teams in terms of not having backloaded deals that would potentially hurt in the future.

I'm no more concerned about 2015 than I am about 2014. Some key players will be retained, others will not--just like every single year.

The New England Patriots may not receive even a penny in compensation or only one-third of the original signing bonus.

And yet there's just as good of a chance that they do, which is only one of the many ways that they may add to their available cap space from now until the spring.

Belichick does a great job every year of looking towards the future, so I'm not sure what you are even debating? We will have sufficient cap space. If we don't other measures will be taken to free up that needed space.

Connolly is competent, I can't say the same about Gregory.

A young draft pick may end up like Rich Orhnberger, a wasted draft pick. There are no guarantees with the NFL Draft. As for 2011, calendar year 2011 has no bearing whatsoever to calendar year 2014.

The example of 2011 was used to combat your statement of "we currently don't have a viable backup at center outside of Connelly."

In 2011 they seemed to make due just fine on their way to another SB appearance by using 3 or 4 different players at center. It's not a good argument to pay someone 3 million dollars and you know that.

The fact that Connelly can backup the position of center certainly doesn't make him worth a 3 million dollar cap hit, especially depending on what their plans on with keeping Wendell, and whether or not they expect Cannon to be able to play the starting role which seems like a decent chance.

The Rich Ornberger example isn't what I meant...he was a 4th round pick. I think most of us are expecting a pick in the top couple of rounds to be used on a young interior lineman. Either way they'll figure out how to form a competitive team one way or another, and it won't include keeping someone at a 3m dollar cap hit because "there are no other viable backups" at a position that he doesn't even play!

 

[mgteich]

Given the situations with Wendell and Connolly, we are most likely to use a 1st or 2nd rounder on a center or guard. Guards are usually readily easy to find, centers less so. In any case, we will have made the decision regarding Wendell long before the draft.

Obviously, the patriots will not pay Connolly $3M to be a backup. It seems that his staying depends on whether we decide to pay Wendell.

 

[supafly]

Given the situations with Wendell and Connolly, we are most likely to use a 1st or 2nd rounder on a center or guard. Guards are usually readily easy to find, centers less so. In any case, we will have made the decision regarding Wendell long before the draft.

Obviously, the patriots will not pay Connolly $3M to be a backup. It seems that his staying depends on whether we decide to pay Wendell.

I agree fully that it depends on if they decide to keep Wendell or not, but I also think that their plans for Cannon may come into things too. By that time he may be expected to be able to carry the load as a starter. As you mentioned, their draft plans may also come into play, along with their longterm plans with Connelly himself since it's his last year in 2013.

Aside from all of these factors, I actually think it will come down to ONE main question: "Is Dan Connelly worth a 3m dollar cap hit?"

That is normally the Belichick way of evaluating these decisions more often than not. If the answer is no then he'll take a shot at plugging his grandmother in there if he needs to. We will get by one way or another.

 

[mgteich]

If Wendell isn't re-signed, Connolly will likely we our starting center, whether Cannon is ready to start at OG or not.

I agree fully that it depends on if they decide to keep Wendell or not, but I also think that their plans for Cannon may come into things too. By that time he may be expected to be able to carry the load as a starter.

 

[mgteich]

I believe that the FO expects no major increase in the cap next year, and a reasonable increase in 2015. In any case, I believe that much has been, as is being done, to prevent any great issues for 2014.

Our list of significant 2014 free agents is not huge: Wendell, Talib, Spikes and Ninkovich. ANd yes, it is the time to extend Wilfork. Connolly and Gregory do have relatively high salaries. I would prefer alternatives before cutting them (a relatively novel approach).

 

[ATippett56]

You're worried about 2 yrs down the road already? How do you know that the cap won't have jumped up 6-7 million dollars by 2015?

The following New England Patriots will be unrestricted free agents in 2015:

Mallett
Connelly
Solder
Cannon
Ridley
Vereen
Wilfork
Kelly
McCourty
Gregory
Gostkowski
Aiken
Slater

As far as the NEP go, we are one of the better teams in terms of not having backloaded deals that would potentially hurt in the future.

Oh really? Mayo's cap hit increases from $7.9 million in 2014 to $10.6 million in 2015. Gronkowski's cap hit increases from $5.4 million in 2014 to $8.65 million in 2015. Vollmer's cap hit increases from $5.75 million in 2014 to $6.6875 million in 2015. Amendola's cap hit increases from $4.54375 million in 2014 to $5.54375 million in 2015. There's goes the $6 to $7 million in the salary cap increase.

I'm no more concerned about 2015 than I am about 2014. Some key players will be retained, others will not--just like every single year.

Belichick's approach may differ.

The example of 2011 was used to combat your statement of "we currently don't have a viable backup at center outside of Connelly."

In 2011 they seemed to make due just fine on their way to another SB appearance by using 3 or 4 different players at center. It's not a good argument to pay someone 3 million dollars and you know that.

The fact that Connelly can backup the position of center certainly doesn't make him worth a 3 million dollar cap hit, especially depending on what their plans on with keeping Wendell, and whether or not they expect Cannon to be able to play the starting role which seems like a decent chance.

That's your opinion and Belichick may view the situation from a different standpoint.

The Rich Ornberger example isn't what I meant...he was a 4th round pick. I think most of us are expecting a pick in the top couple of rounds to be used on a young interior lineman.

Where you project an offensive lineman to be drafted may be different from the New England Patriots organization's perspective.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Rolling assets to the next season

Good luck with your naive stance.

NFLPA files grievance against New England Patriots over Aaron Hernandez workout bonuses - ESPN Boston

I said I really hope they do, I'm not sure how that is any stance, but a naive stance to boot really boggles my mind even more.

The word hope and having a stance aren't generally associated, just so you know for future reference.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Rolling assets to the next season

If Wendell isn't re-signed, Connolly will likely we our starting center, whether Cannon is ready to start at OG or not.

It seems more like Connolly is cut and his money is used toward keeping Wendell.

 

[mgteich]

So, in 2014, we will be dealing with 3 starters ( 1 offense and 3 on defense). In 2015, we will be dealing with 12 (5 on offense, 4 on defense and 3 on special teams). We will have at least three contracts that the team would like to do as an extension in the next year: Solder, McCourty and Wilfork (and perhaps even Ridley and Vereen). 2015 is indeed a mess at this. $7M extra cap money won't go far.

I agree that we need to plan several years ahead.

The following New England Patriots will be unrestricted free agents in 2015:

Mallett
Connelly
Solder
Cannon
Ridley
Vereen
Wilfork
Kelly
McCourty
Gregory
Gostkowski
Aiken
Slater

Oh really? Mayo's cap hit increases from $7.9 million in 2014 to $10.6 million in 2015. Gronkowski's cap hit increases from $5.4 million in 2014 to $8.65 million in 2015. Vollmer's cap hit increases from $5.75 million in 2014 to $6.6875 million in 2015. Amendola's cap hit increases from $4.54375 million in 2014 to $5.54375 million in 2015. There's goes the $6 to $7 million in the salary cap increase.

Belichick's approach may differ.

That's your opinion and Belichick may view the situation from a different standpoint.

Where you project an offensive lineman to be drafted may be different from the New England Patriots organization's perspective.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One problem with the draft picks/cap space comparison is the uniqueness of draft picks. That is, there are only 32 1st round picks each year. Therefore, having more than the average team is advantageous. Cap space is not unique. The Patriots will not be the only team to roll over cap space into 2014 so the advantage they may gain will be limited. Two division rivals, the Bills and the Dolphins, are going to roll over much more money than the Pats.

OTOH, remember that the Patriots have 48 players under contract for 2014, while the Bills only have 43, and the LOLphins and JEST 37 each.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

For example, I do not believe BB philosophically feels it is good to trade for future picks. He certainly does that, but I believe it is because his philosophy is to consistent make moves that give the best overall value.
Since many teams are willing to overpay to get the shiny new toy today, trading the pick for more in the future is the value move.

FWIW, I remember reading that Jimmy Johnson told BB that draft picks are like money in the bank: if you need it right away, you can use it; if you don't need to use them, you can push them forward and spend the "interest."

 

[ATippett56]

So, in 2014, we will be dealing with 3 starters ( 1 offense and 3 on defense). In 2015, we will be dealing with 12 (5 on offense, 4 on defense and 3 on special teams). We will have at least three contracts that the team would like to do as an extension in the next year: Solder, McCourty and Wilfork (and perhaps even Ridley and Vereen). 2015 is indeed a mess at this. $7M extra cap money won't go far.

I agree that we need to plan several years ahead.

Reshad Jones contract extension:

Reshad Jones - Miami Dolphins - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

8/5/2013: Signed a five-year, $30.81 million contract. The deal contains $15 million guaranteed -- a $5 million signing bonus and each of Jones' first three base salaries. 2013: $630,000, 2014: $2.61 million, 2015: $6.76 million, 2016: $7.225 million (+ $25,000 workout bonus), 2017: $7.085 million (+ $25,000 workout bonus), 2018: Free Agent

I anticipate Devin McCourty will receive a contract somewhere in the ball park.

 

[ATippett56]

So, in 2014, we will be dealing with 3 starters ( 1 offense and 3 on defense). In 2015, we will be dealing with 12 (5 on offense, 4 on defense and 3 on special teams). We will have at least three contracts that the team would like to do as an extension in the next year: Solder, McCourty and Wilfork (and perhaps even Ridley and Vereen). 2015 is indeed a mess at this. $7M extra cap money won't go far.

I agree that we need to plan several years ahead.

Ryan Clady contract extension:

Ryan Clady - Denver Broncos - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

7/14/2013: Signed a five-year, $52.5 million contract. The deal contains $33 million guaranteed -- a $3 million signing bonus, $10.5 million first-year roster bonus, and each of Clady's 2013-2015 base salaries. Another $5 million is available through incentives based on performance and All-Pro selections. 2013: $1.5 million, 2014: $8 million, 2015: $8.5 million (+ $1.5 million roster bonus due in March), 2016: $9.5 million, 2017: $10 million, 2018: Free Agent

I anticipate Nate Solder will receive a contract somewhere in the ball park.

 

[mgteich]

We have many more than 48 under contract for 2014. Miguel lists 68. That may be a bit high, but we have 68 on the current payroll less about a dozen whose contracts will end this year. We certainly will be over 51 when the offseason starts.

OTOH, remember that the Patriots have 48 players under contract for 2014, while the Bills only have 43, and the LOLphins and JEST 37 each.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We have many more than 48 under contract for 2014. Miguel lists 68. That may be a bit high, but we have 68 on the current payroll less about a dozen whose contracts will end this year. We certainly will be over 51 when the offseason starts.

I'm going with the numbers from Overthecap.com, since Miguel doesn't track other team's contracts.

 

[mgteich]

fair enough

You won't have the most current data, but clearly you will have reasonable data for comparisons.

I was just a bit amused by you telling Miguel how many players we had under contract.

I'm going with the numbers from Overthecap.com, since Miguel doesn't track other team's contracts.

 

[ATippett56]

We have many more than 48 under contract for 2014. Miguel lists 68. That may be a bit high, but we have 68 on the current payroll less about a dozen whose contracts will end this year. We certainly will be over 51 when the offseason starts.

Of those 68, how many are realistically training camp fodder?

 

[supafly]

Oh really? Mayo's cap hit increases from $7.9 million in 2014 to $10.6 million in 2015. Gronkowski's cap hit increases from $5.4 million in 2014 to $8.65 million in 2015. Vollmer's cap hit increases from $5.75 million in 2014 to $6.6875 million in 2015. Amendola's cap hit increases from $4.54375 million in 2014 to $5.54375 million in 2015. There's goes the $6 to $7 million in the salary cap increase.

This is in response to my statement that "the NEP have been very good compared to other teams with not backloading too many contracts." EVERY team has to backload contracts. My comment was that we do it less than the majority of the other 31 teams, and that success has contributed greatly to not robbing Peter to pay Paul.

If you are trying to question the success that this team has had in the way they do business, that would be quite silly of you.

You're taking an insanely negative stance on this, trying to point out how close to the salary cap we are, how they have backloaded too many deals, and how we're basically screwed in 2015 (as if no one will be retained between now and then and/or the cap won't increase at all). None of those statements would be true on any level. I'm quite sure that Belichick and the front office are well aware of the future, which would actually point towards a guy like Connelly getting his walking papers even more--which was your original point of contention.

You can feel free to continue to try and paint their business dealings with contracts and the salary cap in a negative light, but you'd be very, very wrong in attempting to do so. This team has prided itself on making sound business decisions every single year of the Belichick era, some of them difficult with fan favorites, but they are always competitive and will continue to be that way.