How To Blow the 2024 Draft

[XLIX]

The Chiefs traded away the best WR in the NFL, then went on to win two more rings. It's not the most important position in football after QB.

We know you're not that smart, but this isn't that complicated:

When you have the luxury of having arguably the best receiving TE in NFL history, you can place less emphasis on WR. The Chiefs can afford to place less emphasis on the WR position. And if the next Travis Kelce was available in the draft, he'd be pretty darn high on my board.

When Kelce got hurt earlier, their talented #2 TE Noah Gray stepped in the team didn't skip a beat.

Whuh? Kelce missed one game last year (not including the final game of the regular season where KC rested their starters) and the Chiefs lost that game.

Facts just aren't your friend.

 

[XLIX]

You think Dak Prescott is a great QB? He's a good QB who hasn't done much in the playoffs (hasn't even reached the NFC championship game). Besides, he's round 4, which is the middle round, not late.

You literally said "I'll make it easier on you: round 4 or later." So I give a great example from round 4 and now all of a sudden round 4 doesn't count.

That is textbook moving the goalposts.

Remember you claimed that great QBs could be found in "later rounds."

You put Josh Allen (167 TD's, 78 INT's, 92.2 rating) in your list of great active QBs but refuse to put Prescott (202 TDs, 74 INTs, 99.0 rating) in there. There is no point in continuing this ridiculous sidebar if that is the definition of great active QB's you are using.

 

[mgteich]

Mg, I’m more than happy to answer any questions you have, but they can’t be as long as War and Peace.

My point on getting a franchise QB is that they won’t win Championships without one. And the only way they will get one is with a pretty high 1st round draft pick. And since next year’s QB class is supposed to completely suck the next really good shot at one will be 26’and that would only be if they had another really good first round pick, in other words if they still really suck.

Can they be better than a really sucky team without a franchise QB? Absolutely. But the problem eiyh that is that you end up in the no man’s land that teams like the Patriots and Steelers tend to be in when they aren’t contenders. Good enough to be a borderline playoff team, and never bad enough to get the really good pick to obtain your franchise up QB, unless you want to turn around and give that same “ haul” that teams get when they trade out of the top 3-4 picks in the draft. Which is one of the reason’s you only trade out of that pick when you think the QB’s available don’t have franchise QB ceiling.

So, to get back to this team. I think they have a very good defense, one they can contend with if they do really good job fixing the offense.

I think the problems on offense are not as dire as many here believe they are. And I think they could fix most of them, but not all of them this offseason, especially if they choose to only seriously address 2 of them. IMO they have 3 serious problems on offense. No franchise QB. Big holes on the offensive line, and no big time receivers.

If they draft a franchise QB at 3 and hit on them then that problem is fixed. It may take a year or two fort hem to fully develop, but if they get it right they are set for the foreseeable future.

OL They can radically improve their OL if they choose to focus on that in the draft, and set aside WR until day 3. If Jackson Powers -Johnson falls to 34, which isn’t that likely, they could draft him, and then trade up for Sunmuataia, Paul, or another Tackle in the 2nd. They could do the same by taking Barton at Center and making the same trade up. This would fix both Center and OT if they hit on both. Andrews is still serviceable, but this would give them his long term replacement.

They could do the same at WR by taking two of them on on Day 2, as there will be really good prospects that could dramatically improve their WR room if they go that route.

The other option is the most popular from what I can tell, and also makes a lot of sense. Draft the QB at 3, take a WR or OT at 34, then take whichever position ( OT or WR) that wasn’t addressed at 34. In this case the best approach is to go with the best pick available. E.g.. if Adonai Mitchell is there at 34 then take him, and go after an OT with the 3rd pick, or take Guyton or Paul at 34, possibly even Sumuataia, and then go WR with the 3rd pick.

Any of the approaches seriously addresses their major issues, and they could finish the work at them next year if they hit on them.

The Running back room is in pretty good shape. TE is OK. Both could be improved next year if they want to address them, or with day 3 picks.

If they miss on these picks they could still suck. Or they could improve a little and be one of those middling teams that battles to get into the playoffs but never seriously contends, and never has a high enough pick to get a really good QB without giving up 3 first rounders to get one.

So that’s my position on this team and their future. I know you are smart enough to know when I’m using hyperbole, and what I’m saying, so I’m not interested in debating that. If you have any questions about the above feel free to ask them and I’ll answer.

My last point is this. Is it possible to get a franchise QB without a high first round pick? Yes, but it’s also highly unlikely, so I believe that if you see a QB with true franchise potential then you don’t **** around with that pick, you take them. Bring a mediocre team is easy, being a championship team takes a lot of work and smart decisions, and they need to make them right now if they want any more Lombardi’s anytime soon.

I expect that most everyone thinks that a top QB means a QB with the quality of Mahomes or Rodgers, or at least very close.

I agree that we should certainly try to take a shot early at getting that top miracle QB. Some think that Maye doesn't have that ceiling while McCarthy or Penix (with good coaching) does.
=======
Finally, for me, the issue is our attitude after we pick our QB and fix the problems on Offense. I agree that we can fix the problem in 2 years. I strongly suggest that we should fix the OL before worrying about WR. We could fix the WR situation by trading for or signing 2 top WR's before the next 2025 draft, or perhaps one high in that draft However, I am NOT ready to call it all a failure if we don't win a Championship in the next 3 years.

Very few QB's or teams are in the SB in any 3-year period, or in any ten-year period. That said, I do think that good coaching can being us to expecting the playoffs each year, improving each year. And I do think that this can happen with any of the 6 QB's, but obviously, it would be harder with some than others.

 

[XLIX]

People continuously spout this, but then we look at the team that won the superbowl who had crappy wr's and say, well maybe this isn't true. People have been saying wr's are incredible valuable for as long as I have been following football, still doesn't seem to be true though.

How long have you been following football? 5 years? Because the game has changed significantly in recent years.

 

[Wozzy]

We know you're not that smart, but this isn't that complicated:

When you have the luxury of having arguably the best receiving TE in NFL history, you can place less emphasis on WR. The Chiefs can afford to place less emphasis on the WR position. And if the next Travis Kelce was available in the draft, he'd be pretty darn high on my board.

Whuh? Kelce missed one game last year (not including the final game of the regular season where KC rested their starters) and the Chiefs lost that game.

Facts just aren't your friend.

Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs were 5th round picks, but you want to blow the #3 overall on a WR… and you think that’s “smart.”

 

[XLIX]

Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs were 5th round picks, but you want to blow the #3 overall on a WR…

The above idiocy would be like someone saying: "Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, but you want to blow the #3 overall on a QB"...

If your draft strategy is to draft the next Tyreek Hill in the 5th round, good luck with that.

and you think that’s “smart.”

Yes, I want to pick a generational wide receiver who is expected to be a #1 guy for the next decade with the #3 pick. It sure as heck is a lot smarter than picking the next Mac Jones.

 

[moosekill]

How long have you been following football? 5 years? Because the game has changed significantly in recent years.

50 years, wr's are still vastly over rated and are an extreme crap shoot when drafting. Other than that, please make sure to take that "generational" wr with the 3rd pick. I am sure that will end well.

 

[XLIX]

50 years

And about 40 years of that experience is completely worthless as to the situation in the present day.

wr's are still vastly over rated and are an extreme crap shoot when drafting.

LOL! WR's are a crap shoot in the draft? You obviously never heard of the position called "Quarterback"... there is no position in all of sports that is more of a crap shoot than that one. Even when drafted #1 overall, you still have more misses than hits.

Other than that, please make sure to take that "generational" wr with the 3rd pick. I am sure that will end well.

It'll end better than drafting Mac Jones 2.0

 

[moosekill]

Unless he sucks or gets hurt or his qb sucks.

 

[Ivan]

I expect that most everyone thinks that a top QB means a QB with the quality of Mahomes or Rodgers, or at least very close.

I agree that we should certainly try to take a shot early at getting that top miracle QB. Some think that Maye doesn't have that ceiling while McCarthy or Penix (with good coaching) does.
=======
Finally, for me, the issue is our attitude after we pick our QB and fix the problems on Offense. I agree that we can fix the problem in 2 years. I strongly suggest that we should fix the OL before worrying about WR. We could fix the WR situation by trading for or signing 2 top WR's before the next 2025 draft, or perhaps one high in that draft However, I am NOT ready to call it all a failure if we don't win a Championship in the next 3 years.

Very few QB's or teams are in the SB in any 3-year period, or in any ten-year period. That said, I do think that good coaching can being us to expecting the playoffs each year, improving each year. And I do think that this can happen with any of the 6 QB's, but obviously, it would

I think expecting a first ballot HOF QB is too high a bar, but they should want to get one that can match up with Allen, Burrows, Jackson, is the level you want to be shooting for. If you get a HOF QB out the deal then all the better.

I’m love the idea of two high picks at OL, but ultimately it’s going to come down to who is on the board as 34 nears. But if Adonai Mitchell is still there and OT has been cleaned out then I would seriously consider taking him, and then trading up for an OL from the 68 pick. And I agree with you that they can fix this team in two years with really good decisions. I also agree that a Lombardi in 3 years is a big ask, but I would like to see them contending by then.

 

[Wozzy]

The above idiocy would be like someone saying: "Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, but you want to blow the #3 overall on a QB"...

If your draft strategy is to draft the next Tyreek Hill in the 5th round, good luck with that.

The difference being Brady was an outlier, the best WR's in the playoffs last year came from the third round on.

Cooper Kupp = 3rd round pick
Nico Collins = 3rd round pick
Tank Dell = 3rd round pick
Amon-Ra St. Brown = 4th round pick
Josh Reynolds = 4th round pick
Romeo Doubs = 4th round pick
Puka Nacua = 5th round pick
Stefon Diggs = 5th round pick
Tyreek Hill = 5th round pick

But you want us to pass on drafting a QB so we take a WR... smart.

Yes, I want to pick a generational wide receiver who is expected to be a #1 guy for the next decade with the #3 pick. It sure as heck is a lot smarter than picking the next Mac Jones.

How many rings do Randy Moss, Devante Adam’s, Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Stefon Diggs have between them?

 

[captain stone]

…One way to blow this draft is to draft players, however elite, who aren’t HUNGRY.

For older Patriots fans like me, and I’m 57, the career of stud Texas DT Kenneth Sims comes to mind. He was supremely talented but mailed it in.

Until his contract year. And then after the big contract, he fell off the cliff.

It still hurts me. I had such high hopes for him….

I remember being home on leave and watching the Patsies @ Baltimore Colts last game of the season Toilet Bowl for the “privilege” of drafting Kenny Game Day Sims #1 overall… Al Davis gets Marcus Allen a few picks later…

 

[XLIX]

The difference being Brady was an outlier, the best WR's in the playoffs last year came from the third round on.

Cooper Kupp = 3rd round pick
Nico Collins = 3rd round pick
Tank Dell = 3rd round pick
Amon-Ra St. Brown = 4th round pick
Josh Reynolds = 4th round pick
Romeo Doubs = 4th round pick
Puka Nacua = 5th round pick
Stefon Diggs = 5th round pick
Tyreek Hill = 5th round pick

Ah yes, Captain Cherry Pick strikes again! Did you even watch the playoffs last year?

Here in the real world, the best WR's in last year's playoffs were:

Puka Nacua - 5th round pick
DeVonta Smith - 1st round (10th overall)
CeeDee Lamb- 1st round (17th overall)
Michael Gallup - 3rd round
Mike Evans - 1st round (7th overall)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 4th round
Zay Flowers - 1st round (22nd overall)
Deebo Samuel - 2nd round (36th overall)
Brandon Aiyuk - 1st round (25th overall)

But you want us to pass on drafting a QB so we take a WR... smart.

You want to draft Mac Jones 2.0... smart.

How many rings do Randy Moss, Devante Adam’s, Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Stefon Diggs have between them?

How many rings do Jerry Rice, Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown have between them?

How many rings do Kenny Pickett, Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Mitchell Trubisky, DeShaun Watson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Michael Vick, Chad Pennington, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Tony Banks, Jeff George and Dan Marino have between them?

 

[XLIX]

I find it absolutely fascinating how angry some people are getting over the notion that one person actually dares to think it would be better to draft the #1 WR than the #3 QB. All I said was:

"I sure would rather have a generational wide receiver than a QB that 2 teams already passed on...."

It is beyond hilarious how that one simple, innocuous statement triggered so many people so badly....

 

[jmt57]

To me the QB question/debate is not binary - though some here seem to think it is.

Yes, it is true that a QB (or any player/position) at #3 could be a bust.

It is also true that a QB (or any player/position) at #3 is more likely to succeed than a player drafted later.

 

[Clonamery]

To me the QB question/debate is not binary - though some here seem to think it is.

Yes, it is true that a QB (or any player/position) at #3 could be a bust.

It is also true that a QB (or any player/position) at #3 is more likely to succeed than a player drafted later.

Yeah, so trade back. No, wait, pick Joe Milton, he's the rich man's Nathan Rourke.

 

[Wozzy]

Ah yes, Captain Cherry Pick strikes again! Did you even watch the playoffs last year?

Here in the real world, the best WR's in last year's playoffs were:

Puka Nacua - 5th round pick
DeVonta Smith - 1st round (10th overall)
CeeDee Lamb- 1st round (17th overall)
Michael Gallup - 3rd round
Mike Evans - 1st round (7th overall)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 4th round
Zay Flowers - 1st round (22nd overall)
Deebo Samuel - 2nd round (36th overall)
Brandon Aiyuk - 1st round (25th overall)

When a third of your examples come from the third round or later, it's not really the flex you think it is.

You want to draft Mac Jones 2.0... smart.

Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or JJ McCarthy are already Mac Jones, based on what? I didn't say Marvin Harrison was going to be a bad player, I said he was bad value at #3. WR's aren't the most important position after QB, in fact the Chiefs just won back to back championships without a #1 so you have no leg to stand on.

How many rings do Jerry Rice, Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown have between them?

They needed to be on a great team and had a great QB throwing to them... it starts with having a great QB.

WR's can be found in every round in the draft.

How many rings do Kenny Pickett, Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Mitchell Trubisky, DeShaun Watson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Michael Vick, Chad Pennington, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Tony Banks, Jeff George and Dan Marino have between them?

The Chiefs have won two years in a row without a #1 WR... not very important.

 

[XLIX]

When a third of your examples come from the third round or later, it's not really the flex you think it is.

When 2/3rds of my example come from the first round, it kinda really is.

Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or JJ McCarthy are already Mac Jones, based on what? I didn't say Marvin Harrison was going to be a bad player, I said he was bad value at #3. WR's aren't the most important position after QB, in fact the Chiefs just won back to back championships without a #1 so you have no leg to stand on.

If arguably the greatest receiving TE in NFL history was available in this draft, I would advocate drafting him over a WR.

They needed to be on a great team and had a great QB throwing to them... it starts with having a great QB.

Then why do you want to draft Mac Jones 2.0? Real smart.

 

[Wozzy]

When 2/3rds of my example come from the first round, it kinda really is.

Zay Flowers is a nice #2, so is Brandon Ayuik, but when Amon Ra St Brown is just as good as Lamb or Evans on that list and he was taken in the 4th round... again, it's not a flex.

If arguably the greatest receiving TE in NFL history was available in this draft, I would advocate drafting him over a WR.

It doesn't change the fact KC just won back to back championships with a bunch of #2's and #3's after trading the single best WR in the NFL. Nobody asked about TE's.

Marvin Harrison could get injured, arrested for something stupid or just become a knucklehead and fail as much as any of the QB's at #3 could. You can't predict the future, so you calling Drake Maye the next Mac Jones is a guess.

WR has the highest rate of failure among offensive players in draft history... they'd be better of taking Joe Alt at #3 or trading back.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

You literally said "I'll make it easier on you: round 4 or later." So I give a great example from round 4 and now all of a sudden round 4 doesn't count.

I could take the time to demonstrate how few 4+ round QBs have become starters, let alone "great" QBs. The chances that you will get a great one in late rounds or even in the 4th (I was being nice to you giving you a middle round, the 4th -- you could have also cited Kirk Cousins, although he is only marginally good) is tiny, and not something you should bank on should your team need a franchise QB. That's the main point here, and I am right. Trading down only makes sense if you can get your QB in the early rounds, and banking on hitting the late round lottery is foolish.

That is textbook moving the goalposts.

You put Josh Allen (167 TD's, 78 INT's, 92.2 rating) in your list of great active QBs but refuse to put Prescott (202 TDs, 74 INTs, 99.0 rating) in there. There is no point in continuing this ridiculous sidebar if that is the definition of great active QB's you are using.

Yep, I moved them first to help you, and now I'll move them back again to where this conversation started. FIFTH ROUND OR LATER. Fourth is literally the middle round. Btw, Allen has double the rushing yards of Dak in 20 fewer games while posting similar passing stats. Allen's QB rating in the playoffs is 106, while Dak's is 88, and that is the most important difference between the two: when it's playoff time, Allen is at his best. That's greatness. Dak's biggest issue has always been the playoffs, which makes him good, not great.