Rolling assets to the next season

[TheBostonStraggler]

You may be right regarding Talib, but I would personally wait to see how he plays and acts throughout this upcoming season before throwing too much money at him on a multi year deal.

They've reportedly already offered him a multi year deal in the offseason that wasn't sufficient enough for him to agree to, so I'd have a hard time imagining them suddenly upping their offer before they are able to see continued progress. Just my opinion.

Regarding your second paragraph, I don't blame Talib for insisting on a one year deal. 2013 market conditions put him in a position to lose a lot (not just a couple million) over the life of the contract. While there is inherent risk in going with the one year deal, if he plays at a top 10 CB level this year, the multi year contract he signs in 2014 will likely be well above the value of the Patriots' 2013 multi year offer (assuming the market is not down again).

Your first paragraph is spot on. His performance on the field and what he shows the team off the field will be a very important factor in whether BB decides to seriously go after Talib (in the context of a much higher price than 2013). IF, certainly a unknown, Talib plays top 10 as well as adopts the Patriots' mantra of professionalism/making your job of the utmost importance, I'd be pretty surprised if BB doesn't make a serious effort to resign him. Of course it is likely another team will make a better offer. So we'll probably have to hope Talib is willing to take a bit less to stay with an organization he wants to be part of (assuming he likes it here).

 

[supafly]

Of those 68, how many are realistically training camp fodder?

How can you take a positive and attempt to turn it into a negative with so many different things?

Tell us how many teams have 68 players under contract, and how many of those players would be "training camp fodder?" How exactly are the NEP any different (or worse, as you're suggesting) than any other team in the NFL?

You're getting to be a real negative nancy....you must be conversing with borg.

Just the fact alone that we have arguably the greatest QB of all time, Gronkowski, and Amendola all under contracts well into the future should be reason enough for serious optimism. I don't know of too many teams who are set up that well with their QB, their WR1, and the best TE in the league.

 

[supafly]

Regarding your second paragraph, I don't blame Talib for insisting on a one year deal. 2013 market conditions put him in a position to lose a lot (not just a couple million) over the life of the contract. While there is inherent risk in going with the one year deal, if he plays at a top 10 CB level this year, the multi year contract he signs in 2014 will likely be well above the value of the Patriots' 2013 multi year offer (assuming the market is not down again).

Your first paragraph is spot on. His performance on the field and what he shows the team off the field will be a very important factor in whether BB decides to seriously go after Talib (in the context of a much higher price than 2013). IF, certainly a unknown, Talib plays top 10 as well as adopts the Patriots' mantra of professionalism/making your job of the utmost importance, I'd be pretty surprised if BB doesn't make a serious effort to resign him. Of course it is likely another team will make a better offer. So we'll probably have to hope Talib is willing to take a bit less to stay with an organization he wants to be part of (assuming he likes it here).

I fully agree with your thoughts. The main question will definitely be how much the market bounces back, if any. Unless you were an owner, you probably didn't see that coming this past spring.

If Talib does everything to pique Belichick's interest or better yet satisfy his demands, then he probably should make a nice attempt at a reasonable offer. Whether or not that will be "enough" is another important question, as you stated.

 

[ATippett56]

You're taking an insanely negative stance on this, trying to point out how close to the salary cap we are, how they have backloaded too many deals, and how we're basically screwed in 2015 (as if no one will be retained between now and then and/or the cap won't increase at all). None of those statements would be true on any level.

You provided a hypothetical league salary cap increase from 2014 to 2015 of $6 to $7 million. I countered with salary cap increase of four players under contract during that time span that added up to $7.8875 million.

I'm quite sure that Belichick and the front office are well aware of the future, which would actually point towards a guy like Connelly getting his walking papers every more.

You have no idea whether Connolly will be cut or not; it's just pure speculation on your part.

You can feel free to continue to try and paint their business dealings with contracts and the salary cap in a negative light, but you'd be very, very wrong in attempting to do so. This team has prided itself on making sound business decisions every single year of the Belichick era, some of them difficult with fan favorites, but they are always competitive and will continue to be that way.

You're the one who is arbitrarily cutting starters left and right.

 

[supafly]

You provided a hypothetical league salary cap increase from 2014 to 2015 of $6 to $7 million. I countered with salary cap increase of four players under contract during that time span that added up to $7.8875 million.

I provided a reasonable basis for a 6-7 million dollar cap increase from the present moment to 2015...that's a pretty big difference. Either way, I understand what you're attempting to do, but your exercise could be true since 1994 when the salary cap was implemented in the first place.

This is nothing new. Some players will be retained. Others will not. Many will be drafted. Some will be brought in via FA.

You have no idea whether Connolly will be cut or not; it's just pure speculation on your part.

I would never argue to the contrary. Speculation is what we all do here on the forum. I gave my reasoning to your statement about how Belichick would never cut Connelly b/c he can back up the position of center and how that didn't seem to matter a couple of yrs ago when we used 4 different players and went to the SB.

There will need to be some line in the sand drawn if you want to keep Nate Solder, while we just gave Vollmer a nice deal, have Mankins under a huge contract, and will likely have to pay Wendell next spring. How do you propose keeping them all, especially when Connelly is clearly the weakest link out of the entire grouping?

You're the one who is arbitrarily cutting starters left and right.

I suggested that ONE player would be cut next season, and that was Dan Connelly who will be costing a 3m dollar cap hit in his very last year when Wendell is also due and a high draft pick is expected.

You countered with trying to point out that Connelly would never be cut because we currently (as of 9/7/13) have no viable replacement for the position of center which he doesn't even currently play....I commented on how ridiculous I felt that was.

I definitely am not "cutting starters left and right." The suggestion of ONE player costing too much in his contract year doesn't equate to that on any level.

 

[mgteich]

We have 43 from the current 52 under contract, all but

Wendell
Edelman
Human
Blount
Svitek
Talib
Spikes
Ninkovich
Aiken

We then have all the players on IR and NFI. Armstead, Harrison and Zusevics should be included, bringing the total to 46, plus our Practice Squad which will be re-signed, giving us a total to start the offseason of 54 plus the IR camp fodder players, plus our 2014 draftees.

There will be no issues other than dealing with the above players whose contracts are up, and in the normal dealing with potential upgrades.

The list of nine could even be reduced by extensions before the preseason begins. Wendell and Ninkovich are options.

So, the list is short, with only 4 relatively high profile players.

Of those 68, how many are realistically training camp fodder?

 

[Sciz]

You're the one who is arbitrarily cutting starters left and right.

There are a lot of ways to describe what supafly is proposing, but arbitrary is not one of them. The players that are potentially on the chopping block have lots of things in common. They're old (Connolly will be 32 by next season, Gregory 31), expensive ($3M salary for Connolly, $2.25M for Gregory), in the final years of their contracts (to minimize dead money), and borderline starters, with Cannon already making a run for Connolly's job before he got hurt, and Gregory not being significantly better than Wilson or Harmon even now. (Even though supa is much more in favor of cutting Connolly than Gregory, I'm throwing him in there as well.)

I feel like arbitrary is a very underused word. If you're going to use it, at least use it correctly, though. There are plenty of reasons for singling out Connolly and Gregory as cut candidates. Had Fells stuck around, he would have fit all of those criteria as well, making him another clear cut candidate next offseason.

 

[supafly]

We have 43 from the current 52 under contract, all but

Wendell
Edelman
Human
Blount
Svitek
Talib
Spikes
Ninkovich
Aiken

We then have all the players on IR and NFI. Armstead, Harrison and Zusevics should be included, bringing the total to 46, plus our Practice Squad which will be re-signed, giving us a total to start the offseason of 54 plus the IR camp fodder players, plus our 2014 draftees.

There will be no issues other than dealing with the above players whose contracts are up, and in the normal dealing with potential upgrades.

The list of nine could even be reduced by extensions before the preseason begins. Wendell and Ninkovich are options.

So, the list is short, with only 4 relatively high profile players.

The bottom line is that the team is in fine condition for the immediate future, and anyone who would argue otherwise is attempting to try and be negative. Every team has concerns about the salary cap, and even those who have reaped the rewards of their new franchise QB's on the cheap will be dealing with the same issue, while we actually have our HOF franchise QB under contract for a reasonable market price into the future.

One of the main reasons why they've remained so competitive is the fact that they always look to the future, and that they correctly predicted the fact that there would be no huge immediate spike in the cap.

While many other teams were incorrectly spending like drunken sailors, this team has been very careful (aside from the murderer's contract, and even that had good benefits at the time) not to overspend or over reach during free agency. They've kept a close eye on the future with every single move, and have been able to keep a nice core of the major contributors to longer term pacts in the process.

It will be business as usual, and even IF they were to take a step backwards as ATippett56 is suggesting, then I'd hate to see the backlash from the high majority of the other 31 teams across the board--because most of their situations will all be even worse.

 

[supafly]

My thoughts on potentially cutting Dan Connelly next season are sheer speculation in its finest form, so I certainly don't mean to try and attempt to sound like one of the typical "know it alls" that we tend to see here.

The conversation really took off when I responded to the comments that "he'd never be cut next offseason b/c we currently don't have an adequate backup center at the moment," and that is what I seemed to highly disagree with and take offense to.

There will be many factors that will come into that equation between now and then, some of them regarding the draft, the future development of other OL in the meantime, the situation of Wendell, the future plans of Connelly himself, and most importantly...whether Bill Belichick feels that Dan Connelly's cap hit of 3m is providing adequate value.

All of those equations will be focused upon, so it will remain to be seen what he chooses to do.

 

[ATippett56]

You're taking an insanely negative stance on this, trying to point out how close to the salary cap we are, how they have backloaded too many deals, and how we're basically screwed in 2015 (as if no one will be retained between now and then and/or the cap won't increase at all). None of those statements would be true on any level. I'm quite sure that Belichick and the front office are well aware of the future, which would actually point towards a guy like Connelly getting his walking papers even more--which was your original point of contention.

You can feel free to continue to try and paint their business dealings with contracts and the salary cap in a negative light, but you'd be very, very wrong in attempting to do so. This team has prided itself on making sound business decisions every single year of the Belichick era, some of them difficult with fan favorites, but they are always competitive and will continue to be that way.

I'm painting the salary cap situation in it's harsh reality. There are only so many high priced salary capped players that can be retained on the 53 man roster.

From a purely hypothetical exercise for next season:

Wendell or Connolly - Wendell
McCourty or Talib - McCourty
Ninkovich or Gregory/A. Wilson - Ninkovich

 

[supafly]

I'm painting the salary cap situation in it's harsh reality. There are only so many high priced salary capped players that can be retained on the 53 man roster.

But 2 important questions for you:

1.How is this any different than any other year in the salary cap era?

2.How is this any different from the high majority of teams across the board?

From a purely hypothetical exercise for next season:

Wendell or Connolly - Wendell
McCourty or Talib - McCourty
Ninkovich or Gregory/A. Wilson - Ninkovich

And that may very well be the case, but that's really no different than any other year though.

McCourty is only in the 3rd yr of a 5 yr deal, so the situation vs Talib may not take effect next offseason, although I could very well see that being the way it plays out overall.

Losing Gregory and A.Wilson probably not only wouldn't be a huge downgrade, it's also probably a very realistic possibility.

Any player that we are worried about losing at the moment may be replaced with a current rookie or 2nd yr player who progresses this season, and/or an additional draft pick. Free agency will always be explored on a lesser level for the lower or mediocre costing players too.

In the end, if we're able to retain all of Ninkovich, Wendell, and McCourty (albeit a yr early), most of us would be feeling pretty good in my opinion.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

The bottom line is that the team is in fine condition for the immediate future, and anyone who would argue otherwise is attempting to try and be negative. Every team has concerns about the salary cap, and even those who have reaped the rewards of their new franchise QB's on the cheap will be dealing with the same issue, while we actually have our HOF franchise QB under contract for a reasonable market price into the future.

One of the main reasons why they've remained so competitive is the fact that they always look to the future, and that they correctly predicted the fact that there would be no huge immediate spike in the cap.

While many other teams were incorrectly spending like drunken sailors, this team has been very careful (aside from the murderer's contract, and even that had good benefits at the time) not to overspend or over reach during free agency. They've kept a close eye on the future with every single move, and have been able to keep a nice core of the major contributors to longer term pacts in the process.

It will be business as usual, and even IF they were to take a step backwards as ATippett56 is suggesting, then I'd hate to see the backlash from the high majority of the other 31 teams across the board--because most of their situations will all be even worse.

My two cents: I don't delve into cap discussion too much because of my own ignorance of the complexities. It seems like (not factually per se, just seems like) there is a semi disconnect between a team's cap space or lack of cap space and whether they are in a competitiveness compromised 'cap mess'. Specific to the Patriots, I do recognize in some years there is more to spend on signings while in other years BB has to be extra frugal with little room to maneuver. But I have never really felt concerned that the Patriots are headed toward a competitiveness compromised 'cap mess'. I put that squarely on BB's hardline stance about how much money each position can be allotted as well as his usually hardline negotiation stance. Which leads me to continue to be unconcerned with the cap even in 2015 (despite the players signed/player cap hits/expected rise cap formula totals for that year). Call it faith or 'ignorance is bliss' that 2015 does not concern me that the Patriots' competitiveness will be compromised by the cap.

 

[supafly]

My two cents: I don't delve into cap discussion too much because of my own ignorance of the complexities.

I usually don't either for the exact same reasons, but I find this current subject matter to be mild enough that I can try to keep up.

Call it faith or 'ignorance is bliss' that 2015 does not concern me that the Patriots' competitiveness will be compromised by the cap.

There is definitely some of that in my mind too, but I also feel that there aren't too many differences in 2015 (a year that was supposed to see a dramatic spike due to new TV monies, and while that won't occur it still may show a 4-5-6 million dollar increase in the end) as opposed to any other year for the NEP.

I suppose the argument is that we have more FA's that year, but we've seen other examples of those kinds of years before too.

In the end I believe that every single team goes through these same exercises, and that the NEP are in just as good as shape it not better, as most of the other NFL teams.

I am failing to see this enormous concern that our team and fans should have at the current moment, but that's just my opinion. I find it hard to believe that Belichick would be ignorant and short-sighted after he has excelled in the past at this same very issue.

 

[ATippett56]

McCourty is only in the 3rd yr of a 5 yr deal, so the situation vs Talib may not take effect next offseason, although I could very well see that being the way it plays out overall.

In the end, if we're able to retain all of Ninkovich, Wendell, and McCourty (albeit a yr early), most of us would be feeling pretty good in my opinion.

At the end of this season, McCourty will have accrued four seasons. Belichick doled out a contract extension to Aaron Hernandez only two years into his rookie deal.

With the new CBA, all contracts are four year deals. McCourty was drafted a year too early to reach unrestricted free agency since he was a first round draft pick in 2010 and not 2011. Let's not revisit the Deion Branch contract extension fiasco back in 2006.

Devin McCourty is the model citizen:

• Starting free safety
• Awarded the "C" on his jersey (youngest of the team captains)
• Contributes on special teams
• No PED suspensions on his resume
• No off-field incidents whatsoever

Bottom Line: PAY THE MAN

 

[supafly]

In the end, I just fail to see how our situation differs from most of the competitive teams in the least.

Here's a recent article regarding Andre Johnson's significant cap hits after this season, since he had to restructure to help free up an extra 4m for HOU this year: Texans, Andre Johnson will eventually have to consider a pay cut | ProFootballTalk

We seem the exact same situation with BAL and Flacco, Suggs, and Ngata--with Torrey Smith coming up.

The Steelers are in bad situation both now and in the future, as are the Cowboys.

The teams like SEA, WAS, and SF will all have to deal with their new QBs demanding top dollar within the next couple of yrs, while we have our franchise QB locked up for a pretty reasonable price for the next 5 yrs.

DEN has the highest player salary for 2013 with Manning, and both Demarius Thomas and Eric Decker are free agents coming up. Welker will be due again after the 2014 season himself.

We could go over examples like these all night.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

With the new CBA, all contracts are four year deals. McCourty was drafted a year too early to reach unrestricted free agency since he was a first round draft pick in 2010 and not 2011. Let's not revisit the Deion Branch contract extension fiasco back in 2006.

Except that first-round contracts automatically come with a fifth-year option that a team can exercise in the offseason between years three and four. [In the specific case of Solder, it would mean paying him the average of the #3 through #25 OLs.]

 

[mgteich]

Belichick excels are the salary cap precisely because he works on issues like 2015 over several years. We could have spent more this year; we didn't. We will definitely plan to be frugal next year, making difficult choices, even though we don't directly see the cap pressure.

We may cut Connolly and Gregory next year. I suspect the team would certainly like to do so.

Much more important is making decisions and signing extensions. We have four major players up for free agency next season. We should extend one or two during the bye week if we can. Next year will be all about extensions. As we did awhile ago, we will make decisions a year before. McCourty, Kelly, Wilfork, Solder, Vereen, Cannon and Ridley. How many can wee keep? How many will we extend a year early to avoid free agency.

We will not go into the off-season in 2015 with a dozen starters as UFA's. And make no mistake, this is a major effort that will take lots of effort to prepare for now and for the next year and a half.

BTW, in the end, it doesn't matter to me that other teams have trouble with the cap. Belichick is a master at cap management. That is one of the advantages of the patriots. If anything, cap management has gotten a lot easier than in the past, lessening the advantage.

I usually don't either for the exact same reasons, but I find this current subject matter to be mild enough that I can try to keep up.




There is definitely some of that in my mind too, but I also feel that there aren't too many differences in 2015 (a year that was supposed to see a dramatic spike due to new TV monies, and while that won't occur it still may show a 4-5-6 million dollar increase in the end) as opposed to any other year for the NEP.

I suppose the argument is that we have more FA's that year, but we've seen other examples of those kinds of years before too.

In the end I believe that every single team goes through these same exercises, and that the NEP are in just as good as shape it not better, as most of the other NFL teams.

I am failing to see this enormous concern that our team and fans should have at the current moment, but that's just my opinion. I find it hard to believe that Belichick would be ignorant and short-sighted after he has excelled in the past at this same very issue.

 

[ATippett56]

Except that first-round contracts automatically come with a fifth-year option that a team can exercise in the offseason between years three and four. [In the specific case of Solder, it would mean paying him the average of the #3 through #25 OLs.]

#3 thru #25 of all NFL lineman or left offensive tackles?

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Left Tackle

http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Nate Solder&Position=LT&Team=Patriots

Based upon the average salary cap hit of #3 thru #25 left offensive tackles for the 2013 NFL Season, the salary cap hit for Nate Solder during the 2015 NFL Season would be $5.547 million as compared to a salary cap hit of $2.717 million during the 2014 NFL Season.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

At the end of this season, McCourty will have accrued four seasons. Belichick doled out a contract extension to Aaron Hernandez only two years into his rookie deal.

With the new CBA, all contracts are four year deals. McCourty was drafted a year too early to reach unrestricted free agency since he was a first round draft pick in 2010 and not 2011. Let's not revisit the Deion Branch contract extension fiasco back in 2006.

Devin McCourty is the model citizen:

• Starting free safety
• Awarded the "C" on his jersey (youngest of the team captains)
• Contributes on special teams
• No PED suspensions on his resume
• No off-field incidents whatsoever

Bottom Line: PAY THE MAN

In response to your post, I can't pass up the chance to use a line I just heard on a TV Show: "that kind of thinking is post hoc ergo propter hoc".

There isn't much to dislike about Devin. You do a good job of highlighting the positive attributes. Count me as one who wants to see him remain in a Patriot uniform. However, because BB extended AH when he did should mean almost nothing when it comes to the dealings with another player. I'd guess there are a half dozen, if not more, different factors going into when the optimum time is to re-sign a player. I doubt the positive factors surrounding AH will be the same surrounding Devin. And to keep the team cap healthy year in and year out, it's incumbent on BB to look at all the positive factors involving a player individually and deal with that player in a way that the factors say is best. IMHO that is something that should have little to no exception.

 

[ATippett56]

There isn't much to dislike about Devin. You do a good job of highlighting the positive attributes. Count me as one who wants to see him remain in a Patriot uniform. However, because BB extended AH when he did should mean almost nothing when it comes to the dealings with another player. I'd guess there are a half dozen, if not more, different factors going into when the optimum time is to re-sign a player. I doubt the positive factors surrounding AH will be the same surrounding Devin. And to keep the team cap healthy year in and year out, it's incumbent on BB to look at all the positive factors involving a player individually and deal with that player in a way that the factors say is best. IMHO that is something that should have little to no exception.

Do you really want to get into nasty contract negotiations with a player in the fifth year of his rookie contract and re-live the entire Deion Branch fiasco once again? Do you really want Steve Gregory the starting free safety for the New England Patriots during the 2014 NFL Season?

Or how about the name Logan Mankins and the phrase "contract negotiations"?

P.S. Devin McCourty is also 18 months younger than Aqib Talib.