Re: OT: Breaking news, Manning has another surgery on neck.
I don't wish injury on anyone, including Peyton, but now let's see what that franchise is made of. When Brady missed an entire season the Patriots still managed an 11-5 record. Let's see if the Colts can even come within earshot of that. I highly doubt it.
I've been expecting Manning to go on IR for a while now, so I had these stats readily available:
Pats 2007 SoS(pre): .535 They went 16-0 and the post SoS was .469
(if you take out the Pats games, their opponents were exactly .500)
Pats 2008 SoS(pre): .387 They went 11-5 and the post SoS was .480
(again, take away Pats games and opponents were .492)
Pats 2009 SoS(pre): .590 They went 10-6 and the post SoS was .516
(once more, opponents were .525 against all non-Pats teams)
Pats 2010 SoS(pre): .531 they went 14-2 and the post SoS was .504
(Opponents were a 4 year best of .529 against non-Pats opponents)
The 2010 Colts SoS(pre): .516 They went 10-6 and the post SoS was .473
(Opponents were .479 against non-Colt teams)
Now we wait a few years to see if the Colts missing Manning for a year is comparable to the Pats missing Brady for a year, and then we can listen to all the arguements about how Manning is older, the Colts are a worse team, Collins isn't as good as Cassel, Manning is still the greatest and totally would've won the next 10 Super Bowls had he not hurt his neck, blah, blah, blah. (I suspect with the nature of his injury and his age, that he will never again perform at the "ManningVP" level that we've all come to know.)
Brady goes 16-0, the next year Cassel goes up against what looks to be a much easier (but ends up being roughly the same) strength of schedule and loses 5 games. Brady comes back and plays a SoS that is 1 win per team higher than the previous two years and he loses 6 games. Then, one year removed from the injury he goes up against another very hard schedule and only loses twice. The Pats also only missed the playoffs the year Cassel was the QB. Using this limited data, I think it's safe to assume that Brady not being under center is a significant loss to the Pats, regardless of what people will say.
Everyone says without Manning, the Colts are a horrible team, and sure, I agree, but is he really worth 5 wins this season? I doubt many people had them higher than 10-6 again this year (Pre-preseason I had them at 10-6, missing the playoffs with Manning).
If they don't go 3-13 what will the ManningVP arguers say? By god, what if Collins takes them past 5-11? I think Collins can take the Colts to 6+wins (no more than 8). Will that mean that everyone is wrong or that the numbers are wrong?
In my mind if the Colts go 4-12 or worse, I will concede that ManningVP is in fact, the most important individual to a team, but if Collins goes 6-10 or better, I'm throwing the flag and calling it for Brady in part 37,263 of 48,398 in the Brady vs Manning debate.
