How nervous are you about the Bills game?

[Brady_to_Moss]

Don't forget who has faced. The Jets' defense has allowed opposing offenses to convert a whopping 55.8% of their third downs (dead last in the league), KC has allowed 42.9% conversion rate of third downs (20th in the league), and only Cleveland is halfway respectable in that area with 35.6% of the third down allowed (11th and the Bills were 4 for 14 or 28.6% on third downs in that game).

On the flip side, the Bills' defense is also horrible at stopping teams on third down allowing opposing teams to convert 46.2% of third downs (25th in the league).

The Pats are tied for 12th with 36.1%. So other than the Browns, the Pats are far better on third down defense than the teams the Bills have faced.

Also, on the positive side of this particular stat, the Pats face some of the worst teams in this category over the next month including the Bills, Seattle (22nd with 44.7%), the Broncos (29th with 50%), and the Jets.

Oh they haven't played anyone good..but division games always are close/come down to the wire..look at last year...i am expecting the same sunday which is why i will be a nervous wreck

 

[Mack Herron]

How can we really know what to expect from this team? As soon as you plug one leak the flood gates open somewhere else. The offense was balanced and dominant against the Titans, truly awful against the Cards, while the passing game returned against the Ravens but without any semblance of a running threat so was ineffective in the fourth quarter when they could have won the game. The defense was impressive in the first two games against the run, and reasonably effective against mediocre passing games, but broke down completely against the Ravens. I expect defensive changes but the options are limited. Special teams has been mediocre at best with some very bad moments. With Edelman likely out, I see little chance of big plays there. This inconsistency has added up to 1-2. We need to be more balance offensively, but that may be difficult with Mankins and Edelman not practicing. Brady still has Welker and Lloyd (who has been effective despite achieving minimal separation) so I expect the offense will put up some points against poor Bills CBs. I also expect Fitzpatrick will have success against a defense that cannot apply pressure and lacks coverage on the back end. With Buffalo's injuries, and our inconsistent OL play, I expect neither team will run effectively. If the Patriots can eliminate the costly mistakes at crucial moments that we saw the last two weeks, they will win. History suggests they will.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

How can we really know what to expect from this team? As soon as you plug one leak the flood gates open somewhere else. The offense was balanced and dominant against the Titans, truly awful against the Cards, while the passing game returned against the Ravens but without any semblance of a running threat so was ineffective in the fourth quarter when they could have won the game. The defense was impressive in the first two games against the run, and reasonably effective against mediocre passing games, but broke down completely against the Ravens. I expect defensive changes but the options are limited. Special teams has been mediocre at best with some very bad moments. With Edelman likely out, I see little chance of big plays there. This inconsistency has added up to 1-2. We need to be more balance offensively, but that may be difficult with Mankins and Edelman not practicing. Brady still has Welker and Lloyd (who has been effective despite achieving minimal separation) so I expect the offense will put up some points against poor Bills CBs. I also expect Fitzpatrick will have success against a defense that cannot apply pressure and lacks coverage on the back end. With Buffalo's injuries, and our inconsistent OL play, I expect neither team will run effectively. If the Patriots can eliminate the costly mistakes at crucial moments that we saw the last two weeks, they will win. History suggests they will.

Ravens have a very good running game. And it's hard to run on them.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

ESPN These Bills are ready for Patriots

bruschi picking bills

How do you guys think the oline plays this week?

 

[VrabelJr]

I think our OLine plays well. That Bills line still needs time to mesh.

However, I think we win this game by running the ball. We need to take advantage of the Bills over pursuit and their weak LB and smallish Safeties. I don't mind running at Mark Anderson's side 15-20 times.

 

[livinginthe past]

Reading this thread serves to remind me how spoiled Patriots fans are!

Most take it as some type of birthright that we will win every game that we are slight favorites for.

As has been pointed out, there is a slim line between success and failure in the NFL (look no further than the Saints) - its been a tale of two field goals in our 2 losses this year - a slight reversal of fortune on those and we are looking at 3-0.

I really hope (as ever) that we will win this weekend, but going 1-3 (while unthinkable to those who don't realise how special 2001-2012 has been) is not the end of world - far from it, in fact.

Recent history is littered with teams that were up and down all year and then got hot at the right time and won it all - NY Giants twice and Pittsburgh to name but 3.

We have a young, developing D and an offense that has had to change its philosophy 1 game into the year - if we take a few losses while they learn and adapt - all the better if they can hit the post-season running.

Go Pats!!

 

[PittPatriot]

I'm always afraid…it's what gives me my edge.

 

[SuperWilliamsBrothers]

I think our OLine plays well. That Bills line still needs time to mesh.
However, I think we win this game by running the ball. We need to take advantage of the Bills over pursuit and their weak LB and smallish Safeties. I don't mind running at Mark Anderson's side 15-20 times.

That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. You realize the Patriots O-Line gave up more sacks on their last drive against Baltimore than the Bills have given up all season?
(The Bills haven't given up a legitimate sack yet.)

Also, go ahead and run at Anderson, he's been a beast against the run this year against RB's who are way better than anything the Patriots have.

 

[foreboding]

Clearly a Tom Brady-led team can beat the Bills.

That said, I am hopeful and fairly confident that the Bills can make the Pats offense one dimensional by stopping the run. The Bills line is, in my opinion much better than the Ravens. They play good gap assignment and all four linemen are strong enough to shed blocks to get the runner.

Now, Brady one dimensional is no mortal lock to be stopped either. All four of the Bills Lineman can rush the passer very well though and despite Anderson and M Williams, the biggest strength on that line are the two hulks in the middle, K Williams and Dareus.

Key to the game is going to be the Bills DLine v the Pats OLine. I think the Bills can score enough to win, but can they stop the Pats offense and all those weapons?

I think the Jets game was a fluke. 3 turnovers on the first 3 possessions with 3 touchdowns put the game plan straight to bed. If the Bills can get one of their premier backs healthy enough to make an impact it is not easy to stop the Bills offense. Fitz is playing pretty well and most important he puts the team in a position to make a play from the Line of scrimmage, ala Brady. Does he throw as well as Brady? Of course not, but he is very smart and finds mis-matches.

 

[Rob0729]

That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. You realize the Patriots O-Line gave up more sacks on their last drive against Baltimore than the Bills have given up all season?
(The Bills haven't given up a legitimate sack yet.)

Also, go ahead and run at Anderson, he's been a beast against the run this year against RB's who are way better than anything the Patriots have.

I agree with you about the Bills' o-line. They have played well so far this season.

As for Anderson vs. the run, it is way too early to tell. The Jets suck at running the ball. So do the Browns (they had a great rushing game vs. the Bengals, but not any other team they have faced). KC rushed for 150 yards on the Bills, but I don't know the situation or whether they ran at Anderson.

 

[SuperWilliamsBrothers]

I agree with you about the Bills' o-line. They have played well so far this season.

As for Anderson vs. the run, it is way too early to tell. The Jets suck at running the ball. So do the Browns (they had a great rushing game vs. the Bengals, but not any other team they have faced). KC rushed for 150 yards on the Bills, but I don't know the situation or whether they ran at Anderson.

Almost all of their yards in that game came after the score was 35-3 and the Bills pulled their starters

 

[Rob0729]

Almost all of their yards in that game came after the score was 35-3 and the Bills pulled their starters

But looking at the play by play, the Chiefs never had a chance to run the ball because Cassel sucked early making the Chiefs go three and out or not much more on all their opening drives. So again, tough to tell.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills - Play By Play - September 16, 2012 - ESPN

Either way, the Bills have not really been tested against the run. Depending on the Pats' game plan, they may not be tested this weekend. I still think Anderson is a weak link against the run though.

 

[gmtaxi27]

I am not worried about this game. I feel we will win, but even if we don't I still feel we will find a way to win the division. We probably won't get a bye, but in a strange way that might not be the worst thing.

Look at the past few Super Bowl winners. Giants (2x) Packers, Steelers all won the Super Bowl without the bye, and even had to fight every game just to make the playoffs.

Maybe a little adversity early on might not be the worst thing.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

The Bills line as a unit is better than the Ravens without Suggs, but Ngata blows up running plays by himself, and Cody is no slouch. The Bills have nothing close to Ngata on the interior.

Anderson is what he is. He's good in space. He will struggle against a power running game, but I don't think the Pats will test him there. He will beat his man 2-3 times a game on the pass rush, but he isn't going to overpower Solder, and Solder does much better against the finesse ends than the bulls. Normally a combination of the RT and Gronk chipping is enough to keep the edges under wraps. As always, the pressure has to come from the middle, which I'm certainly not ruling out because we're questionable at best at center and right guard.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I am not worried about this game. I feel we will win, but even if we don't I still feel we will find a way to win the division. We probably won't get a bye, but in a strange way that might not be the worst thing.

Look at the past few Super Bowl winners. Giants (2x) Packers, Steelers all won the Super Bowl without the bye, and even had to fight every game just to make the playoffs.

Maybe a little adversity early on might not be the worst thing.

I agree with the overall point, but the Steelers were the 2 seed in 2008 (EDIT:whoops, 2005, got it). All of those teams got hot late and have playmakers on both sides of the ball. We don't have much in the way of impact guys on defense.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The only way I'm worried about this game is if Mankins is not able to go Full Tilt Full Time, as then I'd be worried about the health of The Franchise.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

The Pats will lose this game.

 

[Jimke]

The Pats will lose this game.

The Broncos, Seahawks, and Jets games aren't gimmies eiether.
The Patriots may be very much overated.

 

[SuperWilliamsBrothers]

The Bills line as a unit is better than the Ravens without Suggs, but Ngata blows up running plays by himself, and Cody is no slouch. The Bills have nothing close to Ngata on the interior.

Anderson is what he is. He's good in space. He will struggle against a power running game, but I don't think the Pats will test him there. He will beat his man 2-3 times a game on the pass rush, but he isn't going to overpower Solder, and Solder does much better against the finesse ends than the bulls. Normally a combination of the RT and Gronk chipping is enough to keep the edges under wraps. As always, the pressure has to come from the middle, which I'm certainly not ruling out because we're questionable at best at center and right guard.

Kyle Williams is up there with Ngata as a top DT in the NFL, and Dareus is a rising star....

This is yet another example of K Williams being the most underrated player in the NFL

 

[LetsGoBuffalo]

But looking at the play by play, the Chiefs never had a chance to run the ball because Cassel sucked early making the Chiefs go three and out or not much more on all their opening drives. So again, tough to tell.

From this very thread:

The Bills haven't beaten anyone. Their two wins are against the Browns and Chiefs. Fitzpatrick has not been great. Their much hyped d-line has been a disapointment. Their secondary can be exploited. They let both Mark Sanchez and Matt Cassel look like elite QBs in the game.

If you are going to spout stats, at least possess a rudimentary contextual understanding of how those stats were accumulated.