Anyone Else Think Connor Barwin Is Overrated?

[mayoclinic]

Good points but Matthews has played D all 4 yrs. Thanks for the ranking summary prior to combine and workouts.

But he didn't see much playing time there prior to 2008. He was mostly a STer.

The NFP top 100 that Patchick referred to from January also included a number of players who didn't come out. Here's some of their more interesting rankings:

67. Eric Norwood, DE/LB - didn't come out. A terrific 3-4 SILB prospect for 2010
68. William Moore, S
69. Connor Barwin, DE/LB
70. Ndamukong Suh, DT - a probable top 20 pick in 2010
73. Sergio Kindle, DE/LB - a probably top 20 pick in 2010; would have given Barwin a run for his money as a 3-4 OLB prospect this year
75. Alex Mack, OG/C - probable late 1st/early 2nd rounder
76. Ziggy Hood, DT - probable late 1st/early 2nd rounder
79. Tyson Jackson, DE - probable 1st rounder
80. Larry English, DE/LB - hmm, Barwin rated high than English pre-combine?
84. Patrick Chung, S
85. Clay Matthews, LB - thank god he's not a "late riser" like Barwin, huh?
100. Josh Freeman, QB - probable 1st rounder, or at least early 2nd

Louis Delmas, Jarren Gilbert and Eric Wood didn't make the top 100.

The link can be found at:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/01/nfl-draft-updated-top-100-prospects/

Take away Terrance Cody (4), Brandon Spikes (6), Taylor Mays (7), Sam Bradford (8), Jermaine Gresham (12), Gerald McCoy (14), George Selvie (20), Russell Okung (26), Trent Williams (28), Mark Herzlich (37), Corey Wooten (39), Antonio Coleman (40), Greg Hardy (43), Ciron Black (47), CJ Spiller (49), Sergio Render (53), Sean Weatherspoon (55), Tim Tebow (58), Brandon LaFell (59), Brandon Graham (61), and Trevard Lindley (63) and suddenly Barwin moves up 21 spots to #44 on their actual list, about the same as on NFLdraftscout's rankings (#47) at the time, which didn't include any of those players who didn't declare.

Based on the solid mid-2nd rankings from NFP and NFLdraftscout and January combined with his expected athleticism and being a late riser, I think it was predictable 3 months ago that Barwin could very well end up in the late 1st/early 2nd round discussion. Certainly at least as predictable as Larry English and Clay Matthews ending up there.

 

[BPF]

But he didn't see much playing time there prior to 2008. He was mostly a STer.

The NFP top 100 that Patchick referred to from January also included a number of players who didn't come out. Here's some of their more interesting rankings:

67. Eric Norwood, DE/LB - didn't come out. A terrific 3-4 SILB prospect for 2010
68. William Moore, S
69. Connor Barwin, DE/LB
70. Ndamukong Suh, DT - a probable top 20 pick in 2010
73. Sergio Kindle, DE/LB - a probably top 20 pick in 2010; would have given Barwin a run for his money as a 3-4 OLB prospect this year
75. Alex Mack, OG/C - probable late 1st/early 2nd rounder
76. Ziggy Hood, DT - probable late 1st/early 2nd rounder
79. Tyson Jackson, DE - probable 1st rounder
80. Larry English, DE/LB - hmm, Barwin rated high than English pre-combine?
84. Patrick Chung, S
85. Clay Matthews, LB - thank god he's not a "late riser" like Barwin, huh?
100. Josh Freeman, QB - probable 1st rounder, or at least early 2nd

Louis Delmas, Jarren Gilbert and Eric Wood didn't make the top 100.

The link can be found at:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/01/nfl-draft-updated-top-100-prospects/

Take away Terrance Cody (4), Brandon Spikes (6), Taylor Mays (7), Sam Bradford (8), Jermaine Gresham (12), Gerald McCoy (14), George Selvie (20), Russell Okung (26), Trent Williams (28), Mark Herzlich (37), Corey Wooten (39), Antonio Coleman (40), Greg Hardy (43), Ciron Black (47), CJ Spiller (49), Sergio Render (53), Sean Weatherspoon (55), Tim Tebow (58), Brandon LaFell (59), Brandon Graham (61), and Trevard Lindley (63) and suddenly Barwin moves up 21 spots to #44 on their actual list, about the same as on NFLdraftscout's rankings (#47) at the time, which didn't include any of those players who didn't declare.

Based on the solid mid-2nd rankings from NFP and NFLdraftscout and January combined with his expected athleticism and being a late riser, I think it was predictable 3 months ago that Barwin could very well end up in the late 1st/early 2nd round discussion. Certainly at least as predictable as Larry English and Clay Matthews ending up there.

All great info but like I noted earlier, he's a good player just not one I would take in the 1st Rd. I don't believe you do your team justice but taking one-year performers in Rd 1 (on defense for Barwin of course), not just Barwin but any player. We never had a chance to see how Barwin would react to being schemed against. In his one year of playing DE he was some what of a surprise for opponents. We never got to see how he would react to offensive coordinators having an offseason to scheme against him like we have with some other prospects. Yes, he performed well his first year on defense but just because he did and also measures out great and passes the eye ball test does not guarantee he being a great pro. The Patriots have done well in the 1st Rd selecting productive players that have started multiple years for their college programs. In Rd 1 and Rd 2 I believe you take players with the least amount of questions marks but as noted earlier with three 2nd Rd picks the Pats can take a conversion player like Barwin this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

All great info but like I noted earlier, he's a good player just not one I would take in the 1st Rd. I don't believe you do your team justice but taking one-year performers in Rd 1 (on defense for Barwin of course), not just Barwin but any player. We never had a chance to see how Barwin would react to being schemed against. In his one year of playing DE he was some what of a surprise for opponents. We never got to see how he would react to offensive coordinators having an offseason to scheme against him like we have with some other prospects. Yes, he performed well his first year on defense but just because he did and also measures out great and passes the eye ball test does not guarantee he being a great pro. The Patriots have done well in the 1st Rd selecting productive players that have started multiple years for their college programs. In Rd 1 and Rd 2 I believe you take players with the least amount of questions marks but as noted earlier with three 2nd Rd picks the Pats can take a conversion player like Barwin this year.

As previously stated, it's fine to disagree. This board would be boring otherwise. But the point is (1) Barwin was a mid-2nd round pick on several prominent boards at the beginning of the year, well before before the combine; (2) it was predictable that he might rise to an early 2nd/late 1st based on measurables and being a late-riser (in fact, I was praying that he wouldn't blow up the combine so that he would remain in the 47-58 range for us); and (3) his rise has been no more dramatic than that of Matthews or English, neither of whom was considered near a 1st round prospect at the beginning of the year. People tend to forget with all the hype that Matthews gets from Mayock/McShay/Kiper that he was generally considered a 3rd round pick in January, a 2nd rounder in February, and now a borderline 1st guy, with little more actual playing time on defense than Barwin.

 

[everlong]

This has almost become like the political forum where the two sides are so polarized that there's no reason to continue the topic because as it goes on both sides just dig their heals in harder.

It will be interesting when it's over to see if people are able to over come their bias and support whoever is drafted. In Bill we trust or this is a huge mistake this guy will never succeed.

Over all I love this forum especially since I no longer have the time to watch a lot of college ball or scout for the draft as I did prior to kids but this topic should just be locked as a stalemate.

I will say Box nailed Mayo last year even saying he'd be a great value in the top ten well before we drafted him and was on the Bradley bandwagon the year before so I'm very inclined to trust his judgement especially on 3-4 LBs.

/rant

 

[bucky]

As previously stated, it's fine to disagree. This board would be boring otherwise. But the point is (1) Barwin was a mid-2nd round pick on several prominent boards at the beginning of the year, well before before the combine; (2) it was predictable that he might rise to an early 2nd/late 1st based on measurables and being a late-riser (in fact, I was praying that he wouldn't blow up the combine so that he would remain in the 47-58 range for us); and (3) his rise has been no more dramatic than that of Matthews or English, neither of whom was considered near a 1st round prospect at the beginning of the year. People tend to forget with all the hype that Matthews gets from Mayock/McShay/Kiper that he was generally considered a 3rd round pick in January, a 2nd rounder in February, and now a borderline 1st guy, with little more actual playing time on defense than Barwin.

What you're saying makes sense. My own personal opinion is that moving guys up that much based on what they do in shorts and t-shirts is a mistake. Therefore, Barwn should remain a mid 2nd round prospect.

In the case of English and Mathews, their big move up came during the Senior Bowl, which I think is a very logical reason to move someone up the board, especially when the big question on them is level of competition (which is was for English).

So for me, personally, English and Mathews should rate ahead of Barwin.

Having said that, Mathews played much more of a true LB role in college, and would probable play a much different role from English or Barwin. So I'm not even sure there's much point to comparing him.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Over all I love this forum especially since I no longer have the time to watch a lot of college ball or scout for the draft as I did prior to kids but this topic should just be locked as a stalemate.

The difference, though, is that it's still an actual rational debate, largely free of personal insults, and we are getting new perspectives here.

 

[ayjackson]

What you're saying makes sense. My own personal opinion is that moving guys up that much based on what they do in shorts and t-shirts is a mistake.

Fortunately for Pats fans, Belichick will not arbitrarily ignore any set of information in evaluating a player, but will consider every piece of information he can get is hands on, because none of these prospects played for the Pats last year.

 

[JMarr]

Fortunately for Pats fans, Belichick will not arbitrarily ignore any set of information in evaluating a player, but will consider every piece of information he can get is hands on, because none of these prospects played for the Pats last year.

Absolutely. Bravo.

OK, so I'll just take Everlong's idea of polarization one step further and break it down to what this debate seems to really be about:

If both are available at 23, who does BB take, Barwin or Maualuga?

 

[mayoclinic]

What you're saying makes sense. My own personal opinion is that moving guys up that much based on what they do in shorts and t-shirts is a mistake. Therefore, Barwn should remain a mid 2nd round prospect.

In the case of English and Mathews, their big move up came during the Senior Bowl, which I think is a very logical reason to move someone up the board, especially when the big question on them is level of competition (which is was for English).

So for me, personally, English and Mathews should rate ahead of Barwin.

Having said that, Mathews played much more of a true LB role in college, and would probable play a much different role from English or Barwin. So I'm not even sure there's much point to comparing him.

Again, that's totally fine. We just disagree on how high Barwin should go. I'm not sure I see one week of senior bowl practice (no contact) as being enough to warrant a difference which you claim, but that's JMHO.

I've tried to stay consistent. Last fall I identified 2 3-4 OLB candidates who I thought had unusual potential: Barwin and Sergio Kindle. I thought both had pro bowl ceilings but were raw, and thought either could sneak by in the 2nd round or end up as a 1st rounder based on their upside. Up to January 15 I was somewhat open as to which one would end up being the better prospect. When Kindle went back to Texas that became a moot point. Since that time I've been steadily on the Barwin bandwagon. I think those positions are reflected in my posts going back almost 4 months.

Of course Barwin is by no means a sure thing, and I may be totally wrong abouthim, in which case I will be very happy but will publicly eat crow. But I haven't been inconsistent, or getting caught up in "workout warrior hysteria", or getting religious mania about him. That's all.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Absolutely. Bravo.

OK, so I'll just take Everlong's idea of polarization one step further and break it down to what this debate seems to really be about:

If both are available at 23, who does BB take, Barwin or Maualuga?

I hope Maualuga is still available so we know if BB passes on them for someone else, or answers our questions.

 

[patchick]

The difference, though, is that it's still an actual rational debate, largely free of personal insults, and we are getting new perspectives here.

I'm with you, I think people have generally contributed a lot of great information on both sides. While I've staked out my territory in the pro-Barwin camp, the arguments against have given me a lot to think about in terms of evaluating prospects overall.

The fact is, Barwin is a rare case. Plenty of players change positions, but from offense to defense, between junior and senior years, when you're already a starter on offense? I can't think of a comparable example. Toss in the exceptional measurables and the split time with basketball and you have a very complex set of risk and value factors to evaluate.

One guy who comes to mind is John Lynch, who thought he'd won Stanford's starting QB job heading into his junior year and didn't become a starting safety until he was a senior. And he was a multi-sport guy too (a high draft pick as a baseball pitcher). Lynch wasn't drafted until the 3rd round, but he wasn't as much of an exceptional physical specimen.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm generally in the Barwin camp in terms of his ability. His workout numbers are crazy and his production in a decent conference after just one year at DE is very impressive.

The reason I'm "just OK" with taking him at #23 is twofold : 1) it's a VERY deep year for DE/OLB so we can get an interesting prospect later 2) we have some young OLB on the roster who I would like to think have been kept because of decent upside.

If we take Barwin at #23 I will be OK with it but he'd have to have really impressive (pro bowl) upside and a high liklihood of reaching it according to the staff for me to make that pick. Otherwise I'd take BPA elsewhere and get an OLB prospect later.

 

[bucky]

Fortunately for Pats fans, Belichick will not arbitrarily ignore any set of information in evaluating a player, but will consider every piece of information he can get is hands on, because none of these prospects played for the Pats last year.

Yes. And the freezing point of water is 0 degrees Celcius. Thank you for your contribution.

 

[JoeShmoe]

I'm generally in the Barwin camp in terms of his ability. His workout numbers are crazy and his production in a decent conference after just one year at DE is very impressive.

The reason I'm "just OK" with taking him at #23 is twofold : 1) it's a VERY deep year for DE/OLB so we can get an interesting prospect later 2) we have some young OLB on the roster who I would like to think have been kept because of decent upside.

If we take Barwin at #23 I will be OK with it but he'd have to have really impressive (pro bowl) upside and a high liklihood of reaching it according to the staff for me to make that pick. Otherwise I'd take BPA elsewhere and get an OLB prospect later.

That's my position too .. and why I think he may well fall us to #34 (or even #47). As a team FO you've got to be really confident he can turn all this 'potential' into an NFL career when you have others players available you could easily argue are more ready in their positions. Miami for instance need a WR and would be better with someone like Hakeem Nicks than Barwin - even if Parcells is high on him

Most of the mocks I see (professional or otherwise) have him in the high-mid 2nd and I think the mocks we do here (as with anyone's really) are trying to shoehorn him in between #23 and #34. In a deep draft I cant see BB selling the house to go after this kid although what do I know

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That's my position too .. and why I think he may well fall us to #34 (or even #47). As a team FO you've got to be really confident he can turn all this 'potential' into an NFL career when you have others players available you could easily argue are more ready in their positions. Miami for instance need a WR and would be better with someone like Hakeem Nicks than Barwin - even if Parcells is high on him

Most of the mocks I see (professional or otherwise) have him in the high-mid 2nd and I think the mocks we do here (as with anyone's really) are trying to shoehorn him in between #23 and #34. In a deep draft I cant see BB selling the house to go after this kid although what do I know

Which leaves us with a couple interesting perspectives:

- Pass rushers are valued higher than Wide Receivers (see the Franchise tag numbers), so if Parcells is high on Barwin and high on Nicks, which offers more value?

- How do we equate using the #23 pick to "selling the house?" That euphemism would be more apt if the Barwin camp was advocating pooling the two highest picks to move up and draft him.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Which leaves us with a couple interesting perspectives:

- Pass rushers are valued higher than Wide Receivers (see the Franchise tag numbers), so if Parcells is high on Barwin and high on Nicks, which offers more value?

- How do we equate using the #23 pick to "selling the house?" That euphemism would be more apt if the Barwin camp was advocating pooling the two highest picks to move up and draft him.

That's the line from Team Maualuga.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One guy who comes to mind is John Lynch, who thought he'd won Stanford's starting QB job heading into his junior year and didn't become a starting safety until he was a senior. And he was a multi-sport guy too (a high draft pick as a baseball pitcher). Lynch wasn't drafted until the 3rd round, but he wasn't as much of an exceptional physical specimen.

Ah. That explains this comment:

At the time, Clarkson figured Cassel would wind up a head-knocking safety.

"I actually thought he was going to be the next John Lynch," Clarkson said, referring to the Pro Bowl safety. "He single-handedly put out two of our top receivers with just vicious hits. You could close your eyes and listen for the collision, and you knew just by the sound of the impact who hit him."

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

that's the line from team maualuga.

.........

 

[mayoclinic]

Not to beat a dead horse, but this from Ed Thompson a Scout.com today:

Scout.com: 2009 NFL Draft Quick Hits

The last paragraph reads: "As previously reported by Scout.com, University of Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin has a heavy schedule of workouts and visits. But with his continued rise up draft boards, it's now likely that a team will have to use a first-round selection to land him. Scout.com has learned that a few of the other teams that showed interest in Barwin through their official interviews with him at the NFL Scouting Combine include the Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The talented defensive end, who is also being considered by some teams as a tight end, will also be attending the Bengals' workout day for local draft prospects on April 14."

So, overrated or not, I think that it is becoming more and more likely that Barwin will end up somewhere in the late 1st round. #34 would be unlikely. #47 seems out of the question. Whether he's worth it or not I won't discuss, as we've done this ad nauseum.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Not to beat a dead horse, but this from Ed Thompson a Scout.com today:

Scout.com: 2009 NFL Draft Quick Hits

The last paragraph reads: "As previously reported by Scout.com, University of Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin has a heavy schedule of workouts and visits. But with his continued rise up draft boards, it's now likely that a team will have to use a first-round selection to land him. Scout.com has learned that a few of the other teams that showed interest in Barwin through their official interviews with him at the NFL Scouting Combine include the Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The talented defensive end, who is also being considered by some teams as a tight end, will also be attending the Bengals' workout day for local draft prospects on April 14."

So, overrated or not, I think that it is becoming more and more likely that Barwin will end up somewhere in the late 1st round. #34 would be unlikely. #47 seems out of the question. Whether he's worth it or not I won't discuss, as we've done this ad nauseum.

I tend to think that these visits and this interst is nothing more than teams are trying to get a handle on the kid's ability because pass rushers are so hard to find.