Anyone Else Think Connor Barwin Is Overrated?

[mayoclinic]

Here's a nice read, just to add some more fuel to the flames:

DaytonDailyNews: Dayton, Ohio, news and information

Again, I'm not advocating for or against Barwin - I clearly have stated my position. I'm just saying that right now his stock appears to be as a late 1st round/possible early 2nd round prospect, rightly or wrongly. He may be grossly over- or under-rated at that position in the draft.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Here's a nice read, just to add some more fuel to the flames:

DaytonDailyNews: Dayton, Ohio, news and information

Again, I'm not advocating for or against Barwin - I clearly have stated my position. I'm just saying that right now his stock appears to be as a late 1st round/possible early 2nd round prospect, rightly or wrongly. He may be grossly over- or under-rated at that position in the draft.

Nonsense, you advocate drafting Barwin with #23 as the best OLB prospect for NE short of Aaron Curry. That's as it should be for someone as insane and illogical as myself. No need to cater to differing views to protect delicate feelings, instead we need to hope none of the other AFCE draft him.

Comments

By ironmyke

March 30, 2009 8:48 AM
I shudder to think of this talented Bearcat alumnus and super guy getting stuck with the perpetually hopeless and inept Bengals. That would just result in another frustrating waste of strong career potential. I hope the Bengals don’t draft any of the Bearcat alums. I’d much rather see them get selected by any another NFL team where there is a real opportunity for them to have some success.

 

[maverick4]

Keep finding random online poster comments as somehow validating your claims, it's really convincing.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Keep finding random online poster comments as somehow validating your claims, it's really convincing.

more than you ever were

 

[maverick4]

Mav, how about we split the work: you come up with a list of offensive starters who were switched to defense as seniors and ended up leading their conferences in major defensive categories

The thing is, while that list may be short, there is a long list of complete busts or overrated picks who had 1 amazing year of production in college, great athletic measurables, were smart/intelligent/coachable, and said all the right things before the draft.

I think the Barwin lovers are underrating actual football experience. You can't become an elite or even starter level player without tons and tons of reps, coaching, and time, no matter how willing or eager you are to learn.

 

[maverick4]

more than you ever were

That means a lot coming from someone who brands himself as drunk all the time.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

The thing is, while that list may be short, there is a long list of complete busts or overrated picks who had 1 amazing year of production in college, great athletic measurables, were smart/intelligent/coachable, and said all the right things before the draft.

I think the Barwin lovers are underrating actual football experience. You can't become an elite or even starter level player without tons and tons of reps, coaching, and time, no matter how willing or eager you are to learn.

Antonio Gates was able to do this without a single rep before he entered the NFL and now he is an All-Pro. I do realize that he was sign as a UDFA but Barwin has stats which are damn impressive on both sides of the ball. While I agree that #23 may be too high if Miami really wants him I think BB would pull the trigger on upside alone. This kid has production on defense at a high level of competition, I just do not see why people are so hard on him.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

The thing is, while that list may be short, there is a long list of complete busts or overrated picks who had 1 amazing year of production in college, great athletic measurables, were smart/intelligent/coachable, and said all the right things before the draft.

I think the Barwin lovers are underrating actual football experience. You can't become an elite or even starter level player without tons and tons of reps, coaching, and time, no matter how willing or eager you are to learn.

based on what......your say so?

so indulge with the list of players with one year of 'production'.....I like the way you use production/experience to your advantage.........barwin is an experienced football player, and his experience prior to last year has direct meaning to the position he is projecting to play.........especially since part of his job will be at times to cover exactly the position he used to play.........

your basis is extremely weak

 

[maverick4]

especially since part of his job will be at times to cover exactly the position he used to play.........

It sounds great except for the fact that it's not true. If it were true, you'd see receivers and corners successfully switch positions all the time, yet you don't.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

It sounds great except for the fact that it's not true. If it were true, you'd see receivers and corners successfully switch positions all the time, yet you don't.

but it is still more valid than 'he will be a bust because there have been busts before'

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Keep finding random online poster comments as somehow validating your claims, it's really convincing.

Don't worry mav, you'll be proven right, Barwin will be the next Chad Jackson and you can tell everybody you told us so. By the way, did you follow the link to that story? Check the bio of the author? The provenance of the media source who employs him? Oops, I'm sorry mav, I'm the one with the reading comprehension problem and the penchant for using random internet sources, my bad entirely. I'll try and find a more authoritative source, like your own "Anthony" (or whatever his handle was).

 

[maverick4]

but it is still more valid than 'he will be a bust because there have been busts before'

I never said he'd be a "bust", I have acknowledged Barwin's talent and potential. I said he's over-rated based on people here thinking we'd be lucky to have him fall to us at #23. His production next year and probably for the next 3 years is going to be around 20 tackles, 3-4 sacks a year. I don't see Barwin producing significantly more than his draft clone Trevor Scott did. Scott played TE two years and DE two years (19 sacks in college), had crazy good athletic measurables and upside, and was a situational pass rusher in the NFL.

I asked several days ago if anyone could list any other defensive prospect who became good in the NFL based on 1 good year in college besides John Lynch in the past 20 years. The odds are not very good. Even Lynch, an amazing athlete with great potential despite playing D only 1 year, was a 3rd round pick.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I never said he'd be a "bust", I have acknowledged Barwin's talent and potential. I said he's over-rated based on people here thinking we'd be lucky to have him fall to us at #23. His production next year and probably for the next 3 years is going to be around 20 tackles, 3-4 sacks a year. I don't see Barwin producing significantly more than his draft clone Trevor Scott did. Scott played TE two years and DE two years (19 sacks in college), had crazy good athletic measurables and upside, and was a situational pass rusher in the NFL.

I asked several days ago if anyone could list any other defensive prospect who became good in the NFL based on 1 good year in college besides John Lynch in the past 20 years. The odds are not very good. Even Lynch, an amazing athlete with great potential despite playing D only 1 year, was a 3rd round pick.

who here says we will be lucky for him to fall to us at 23?

you make baseless comparison with people who have nothing to do with each other.........barwin is this because someone else is makes absolutely no sense whatsoever........

name me a 1st or second round pick who has failed under said circumstances.........

clay matthews is in the same boat......except that even though he played the same position his entire career, he only managed to get off the bench in his senior season........and yet there are people throwing him up there.......

I'll stick to what I have seen in his play, attitude, and ability over 'well........uhhhh.......trevor scott'

its funny.....I look at your signature, and I'd bet you were probably right there along with borges on the seymour pick

 

[mayoclinic]

I never said he'd be a "bust", I have acknowledged Barwin's talent and potential. I said he's over-rated based on people here thinking we'd be lucky to have him fall to us at #23. His production next year and probably for the next 3 years is going to be around 20 tackles, 3-4 sacks a year. I don't see Barwin producing significantly more than his draft clone Trevor Scott did. Scott played TE two years and DE two years (19 sacks in college), had crazy good athletic measurables and upside, and was a situational pass rusher in the NFL.

I asked several days ago if anyone could list any other defensive prospect who became good in the NFL based on 1 good year in college besides John Lynch in the past 20 years. The odds are not very good. Even Lynch, an amazing athlete with great potential despite playing D only 1 year, was a 3rd round pick.

Hey Mav, I'll chime in here.

First, at this juncture, I don't think we would be "lucky" to get Barwin at 23. He could go earlier, but he seems right now to be a late 1st/early 2nd round pick based on the buzz about him. I've tried to provide some support for that view in terms of "professional" mocks, articles, etc.

The teams I could see using him who pick before us are KC at 3, Cleveland at 5, GB at 9, SF at 10, Buffalo at 11, Denver at 12, Washington at 13, and SD at 16. Those all seem very high for where Barwin is rated right now, so unless his stock rises more or one of those teams trades down I don't see him likely to go before 23. I guess Chicago at 18, Detroit at 20 and Minnesota at 22 are possibilities, but they seem unlikely to me. So I think there is a good chance Barwin will be available at 23.

I rate Barwin very highly on my draft board, so I am willing to take him at 23. I would also be willing to wait until 34 if I thought he would last that long. I have also been suggesting a possible trade back with the Giants from 23 to 29 in a lot of my mocks, and I would consider him there as well. I personally rate him highly enough that he is value at 23, but obviously the later we can get him the better. The question is just a risk assessment as to how likely we are to miss out on him, and how willing we are to take that chance. The gap between 23 and 34 is 10 teams picking, with Miami the most likely spoiler right now. If we trade back to 29 and Barwin gets past the Phins, then the gap until 34 is only 4 teams picking, none of whom seem particularly likely to go for an OLB or a 255# DE (unless someone trades).

Your estimates of Barwin's productivity sound a bit low to me, especially for the 2nd-3rd years, but it's a guessing game. Note that except for 2003 (9.5 sacks) and 2007 (12.5 sacks), Mike Vrabel never had more than 5.5 sacks for us in his other 6 years, and was usually around 4-4.5 sacks and 60-80 tackles (except for 2005 when he played inside and had 108). Roosevelt Colvin never had more than 60 tackles for us in a season and generally had between 5 and 8 sacks when he played for a full season. So I wouldn't be unhappy with something like 20-30 tackles and 4 sacks as a rookie with an increase to those ranges in his 2nd and 3rd years. I think he has the potential for much more, but I thought Chad Jackson had a lot of potential too.

 

[maverick4]

Don't worry mav, you'll be proven right, Barwin will be the next Chad Jackson and you can tell everybody you told us so.

Sorry but I'm not the one going around trying to paint himself here as a draft guru, claiming he knows way more from watching a few games on a couch, and berating others for disagreeing. The fact you reacted so strongly throughout this thread shows just how personally and emotionally attached you are over thinking you're some sort of expert, and how you can't handle it if people don't agree.

 

[jays52]

I never said he'd be a "bust", I have acknowledged Barwin's talent and potential. I said he's over-rated based on people here thinking we'd be lucky to have him fall to us at #23. His production next year and probably for the next 3 years is going to be around 20 tackles, 3-4 sacks a year. I don't see Barwin producing significantly more than his draft clone Trevor Scott did. Scott played TE two years and DE two years (19 sacks in college), had crazy good athletic measurables and upside, and was a situational pass rusher in the NFL.

I asked several days ago if anyone could list any other defensive prospect who became good in the NFL based on 1 good year in college besides John Lynch in the past 20 years. The odds are not very good. Even Lynch, an amazing athlete with great potential despite playing D only 1 year, was a 3rd round pick.

I'll bite. Like others have mentioned before, we are dealing with a unique situation. Think about why Lynch was drafted in the third round. He was a safety with one year of productive experience. There were many safeties in that draft, just like there are safeties in every draft. There were more athletic, more experienced safeties in that draft. Of course he would be available later in the draft.

The conversation here is about Connor Barwin's ability to convert to a 3-4 OLB in relation to his peers. In that conversation there are only a handful of viable options at the NE slots in the 1st to 2nd round. Barwin, Ayers, English, Sintim, Brown ugh, Maybin ugh and Johnson ugh.
Out of those please show me one player other than Sintim who has more experience playing out of the two point in a 3-4 defensive scheme than Barwin. We're looking at a conversion pick, period. Experience is moot given the positional disparity. We all expect that Barwin, English and Ayers are all unlikely to be available after #34. So, when people talk about going OLB at #23, the conversation is essentially between Barwin and English. The general concensus is that considering the respective negatives Barwin is a much better draft choice. I don't think that anyone is saying that Barwin is a white Lawrence Taylor. If that were the case, he wouldn't factor into the conversation as he would be graded higher than Aaron Curry.

I really don't understand why this is such a difficult concept for people to grasp. There is higher upside, we know given our limited evaluation tools that he has the type of traits that mitigate the potential for failure and anyone with a set of working eyes and three active synapes can see the type of player he is on the field. Somehow, I think Box is doing this in a very subjective manner and not in the interest of self-promotion.

 

[patchick]

My 8 cents:

$.01 If Barwin had stayed at TE, he would be a mid-round pick.

$.02 If Barwin had another year producing at the same level at DE, he would be a top-10 pick.

$.03 If Matthews had another year producing at the same level at DE/OLB, he would be a late-2nd rounder.

$.04 If English had another year producing at the same level at DE, he would be exactly the same prospect he is now.

$.05 If Barwin or English had put up the same production for USC, Barwin/English would be a top-10 pick.

$.06 It's easy to over-project Barwin's realistic upside by getting carried away with his measurables.

$.07 It's easy to over-project Barwin's realistic bust potential by thinking everybody else is getting carried away with his measurables.

$.08 Barring a Wilfork-style surprise, anybody the Pats take at #23 will seem like lousy value. This is not because they're actually a bad choice or a weak prospect at that point in the draft, it is because the talent board is so dense that they're not obviously better than a dozen other guys. But in the end, collecting good talent matters more than getting "good value."

 

[mayoclinic]

My 8 cents:

Those add up to #.30 - don't undervalue yourself.

Check. I'd guess a 3rd-4th rounder with his versatility and upside. There are reports some teams are still considering him as a TE, so possibly he could have cracked the 2nd round, though I doubt it.

$.02 If Barwin had another year producing at the same level at DE, he would be a top-10 pick.

Check. Walterfootball has Sergio Kindle going #3 in their early 2010 mock. Kindle as another 6'4" 254# LB with Barwin-like athleticism. He was my other 3-4 OLB choice this year, but chose to go back to Texas. With 2 years starting ability and some experience at both DE and OLB, he will make a ton of money next year.

$.03 If Matthews had another year producing at the same level at DE/OLB, he would be a late-2nd rounder.

Not quite so sure about this. I think that Matthews is benefitting from a lot of hype right now, and I think he would level off. But 2 years of starting production is always better than 1 year. I think he would probably be a 2nd round pick, not so sure about the late part. Best case he would be a late 1st rounder.

$.04 If English had another year producing at the same level at DE, he would be exactly the same prospect he is now.

Agreed. WYSIWYG with English. Solid, productive 4-3 DE and pass rusher. Not clear he has the athleticism to play in space or the ability to read and react. One more year would be exactly the same player.

$.05 If Barwin or English had put up the same production for USC, Barwin/English would be a top-10 pick.

Agreed. Barwin would be another Taylor Mays phenom at USC, where productivity is overlooked.

$.06 It's easy to over-project Barwin's realistic upside by getting carried away with his measurables.

Not sure I agree here. My assessment of Barwin's upside has nothing to do with his measurables, it has to do with his combination of athleticism, versatility, motor, intelligence, drive, etc. I would rephrase this: "It's easy to over-project Barwin's most likely outcome by getting carried away with his upside."

$.07 It's easy to over-project Barwin's realistic bust potential by thinking everybody else is getting carried away with his measurables.

Agreed.

$.08 Barring a Wilfork-style surprise, anybody the Pats take at #23 will seem like lousy value. This is not because they're actually a bad choice or a weak prospect at that point in the draft, it is because the talent board is so dense that they're not obviously better than a dozen other guys. But in the end, collecting good talent matters more than getting "good value."

Partially agreed. I don't see any Wilfork-like miracles occurring, or any Mayo-like instant starters. But I think that the value at 23 is much better than the values at 24 in 2007 or at 21 in 2006. Much better. I think the value at 20-32 in this draft is exactly the same as the value at 11-20, so I think we will get a really good player.

 

[mayoclinic]

I really don't understand why this is such a difficult concept for people to grasp. There is higher upside, we know given our limited evaluation tools that he has the type of traits that mitigate the potential for failure and anyone with a set of working eyes and three active synapes can see the type of player he is on the field. Somehow, I think Box is doing this in a very subjective manner and not in the interest of self-promotion.

To quote Mav4 (in the thread on teams being scared of Rey Maualuga's bust potential): "every year teams still spend 1st rounders on unpolished, high potential guys." Couldn't have said it any better myself. What's so difficult to grasp about that?

 

[TriplecHamp]

The teams I could see using him who pick before us are KC at 3, Cleveland at 5, GB at 9, SF at 10, Buffalo at 11, Denver at 12, Washington at 13, and SD at 16. Those all seem very high for where Barwin is rated right now, so unless his stock rises more or one of those teams trades down I don't see him likely to go before 23. I guess Chicago at 18, Detroit at 20 and Minnesota at 22 are possibilities, but they seem unlikely to me. So I think there is a good chance Barwin will be available at 23.

I rate Barwin very highly on my draft board, so I am willing to take him at 23. I would also be willing to wait until 34 if I thought he would last that long. I have also been suggesting a possible trade back with the Giants from 23 to 29 in a lot of my mocks, and I would consider him there as well. I personally rate him highly enough that he is value at 23, but obviously the later we can get him the better. The question is just a risk assessment as to how likely we are to miss out on him, and how willing we are to take that chance. The gap between 23 and 34 is 10 teams picking, with Miami the most likely spoiler right now. If we trade back to 29 and Barwin gets past the Phins, then the gap until 34 is only 4 teams picking, none of whom seem particularly likely to go for an OLB or a 255# DE (unless someone trades).

I really hope you are right and he does go to somebody like clevland or GB leaving somebody like Orakpo or E.Brown or even Raji on the board for us between 10-14. I would trade up and take any of them and be happier than getting barwin at #23.