An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec. 6th

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

With the loss of a reliable kick off the Pats have given the ball to the opposing team on the 30 pretty consistently. The Jets have excellent ST and could take advantage of this.

Giving the Jets marginal offense some help would not be good.

Maybe the Pats should get a kick-off specialist. Don't the Colts use one?

The Colts KO specialist is their punter, MaAfee. I presume that Mesko isn't much of a kicker, or he would have been the emergency fill-in over Welker.

It's pretty hard to have a second kicker on the active game-day roster who does nothing else but kick. I'm not sure if anyone does that anymore.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

In fairness, my response likening this thread as toilet-bowl worthy was maybe a little harsh, but it was early and I had just made my coffee and the first thing I see is a Jets fan posting on a pats board why the Jets will win. Call it a "knee-jetfan" reaction. I'll try to be rational, so here goes:

A) His name is Devon Mcourty.

B) Revis has definitely not lived up to all his self-proclaimed hype this year. I’ll give you that he’s a top 5 CB, but the receiving threats are a little different this time around. Can he cover Welker, Tate, Branch, and Hernandez all at once?

C) Not worried about Pace.

D) That will be an interesting battle, but at the same time, I believe our secondary is a little more battle-tested and will probably make up for the lack of sacks in the form of INT’s.

As far as the Pats running game goes, it’s a different animal than the last time. BJGE is better, Fred Taylor could be back, the TE’s present a whole new issue, and the screen pass has returned to NE. The rest of your points are pretty dumb so I won’t respond except simply by saying that if it comes down to Tom Brady versus Mark Sanchez in Foxborough, well……DUH!! Even a Jets fan should be able to figure that one out. How can you not think SD is for real after the drubbing they put on Indy in their building last night?

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

First some opinions about differences between week 2 and now:

A) Santonio Holmes as a receiving threat: How will the Patriots deal with him?

It's amazing how you ignore that in week 2, the Pats were starting a ROOKIE CB and a 2nd year CB. Now, the entire secondary has faced some top talent, beaten that talent, and you ignore that.

B) A 100% Darrelle Revis: Who will he cover and can he be as effective as he has been recently? Revis has held Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, and Terrell Owens to 61 yards total. Will Tom Brady be afraid to throw in his direction?

Not sure where you get your stats from but Greg Jennings put up 81 yards on the Jets by himself.

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets - Box Score - October 31, 2010 - ESPN

C)Calvin Pace as a pass rusher/run stoper: He missed the first 4 games of the season. How will his presence in this game help with the pass rush/run game?

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, arguably the toughest set of Pass Rushing DEs in the league, were held to a single sack against the Pats.

D) O-Line improvement: Jets had a 2nd year player starting in only his second game at RG (Matt Slauson). The Patriots had 3 sacks that game. That has only happened 1 other time this season (Hou). Part of that is Mark Sanchez's ability to escape the rush and still make plays. Will a team that's currently 21's in sacks be able to get constant pressure on the QB? Will they be able to contain Sanchez once/if he escapes the pocket?

You are like many other typical fans who don't understand that sacks are not the be all/end all stat to whether a QB is getting pressured. You seem to have missed that the Pats are 4th in interceptions with 15.

Besides said differences between week 2 and now...there are some other things I wanna see:

1) Sumthin's gotta give: Either Tom Brady's 25 straight (regular season) home wins will cease or the Jets current 8 straight (regular season) road winning streak cease. Jets are a better road team than home team anyway, winning 11 of the last 15 games on the road including the playoffs.

2) Danny's impact: Will Danny Woodhead and the Patriot running game have an impact in the game vs the Jets? The stats say 'no' he would not. The Jets are the NFL's 4th best rush defense: The Patriots have faced two teams ranked higher: The Chargers (3rd) and the Steelers (1st). They both held the Patriots rushing attack under 100+ yards.

Actually, the Pats put up 103 yards on the Steelers. Not sure where you got that they didn't. Probably the same place you got that bogus information on Revis.

3) Sumthin's gotta give part two: Tom Brady is on Fire. Noticed how I capitalized the F. 23 TD's/4 INT's/2703 passing yards. But he's only passed for 300 + yards twice...vs the Steelers and the Lions. The Jets are 12th in fewest passing YPG (210.6), allow the 4th worst QB rating (75.8), and is tops in the league in lowest completion percentage allowed by opposing QB's (50.3). They held Tom Brady to his 2nd lowest completion percentage this season (55.6), and his 2nd lowest QBR 72.5. Tom Brady has faced 4 teams this season that has allowed fewer passing yardage per game than the Jets. San Diego, Indy, Miami, Baltimore. In those 4 games vs those upper echelon passing defenses Tom has been sacked 11 of his 15 times this season and has thrown for under 200 yards passing in 3 of those games (SD, Miami, Indy).

What you fail to mention is that, in all 4 of those games, the Pats won.

4) Tom's two losses: They came vs. teams who run the ball well. Jets are 2nd in the league at rushing yards per game and the Cleveland Browns are 12th. They've faced other teams who run the ball well Minnesota (10th) and the Steelers (9th). The Patriots forced the Steelers to play catch-up after getting a huge lead in the game, therefore forcing them to abandon the run. While the rushing attack was able to get the better of the Minnesota and keep Adrian Peterson off the field. In the two games the Patriots lost they were out gained on the ground by 75 (NYJ) and 136 (Cle). Not only did they keep Tom Brady off the field, they eliminated any running threat and thereby putting more pressure on Tom Brady to be flawless.

You're good at stating the obvious.

5) Multifaceted threat: If you can either take away or match the one or two things that another team can do then you've got a good strategy/game plan. Belichick is a master of both. Problem is the Jets are very good at a lot of things and not GREAT any any one or two things. We all know this will be the best rushing offense the Pats will have faced all season. But what else is there? Well...the Jets avg 40.1 net yards punting (5th in the league) and are tied for the league lead with 26 punts killed inside the 20. They are 2nd in the league in kick return average at 26.9. All this adds up to winning the battle of field position. They are 9th in the league with 37 passing plays of 20+ yards and 6th in the league with 9 passing plays of 40+ yards, both ranking are higher than New England's, despite all the Mark Sanchez naysayers out there. The Jets have only allowed 1 300+ passing game all season (Chad Henne) and that was without Darrelle Revis.

A few things. While the Jets are 5th in the league with a 40.1 NET, you fail to mention a few things. The Jets have punted 59 Times. The Jets have allowed 22 returns for 200 yards. About 9.1 yards per return. The Pats have only punted 41 times. Mesko's net is only 39. However, he's only had 17 returned for 110 yards.. Or a 6.47 YPR.

Of the teams the Jets have faced, how many of them had winning records at the time the Jets faced them? Two. The Pats (1-0) and Green Bay. And the Jets only won against the Pats. The Jets have not beaten anyone handedly. Yet the Pats have beaten numerous tough teams including the Steelers and Colts.

Quite frankly...The Patriots have not faced a team this season who is above average with regards to running the ball & defending the run & defending the pass & explosive pass plays with the punting/kicking to win the field position battle all rolled into one. Not to mention the Jets have the 4th best starting field position in the NFL. This is the best combination of offense, defense and special teams in the NFL. This is why I think the Jets will win by a touchdown next Monday.

*ROFLMAO* WHAT? The Pats haven't faced a team who is above average running the ball and defending the run/pass? WTF are you smoking. Pittsburgh is exactly that.

I predict Jets 27 - Patriots 20.

People want to Jump on the San Diego Chargers bandwagon...but of their 5 losses 3 of them were to teams under .500. Not me sir. Would rather barely win vs sub .500 teams than lose to them

I will be here all week, respectful, and would appreciate the same in return.

Reponses....comments...rebuttals?

Thanks for your opinions. Too bad that you threw up bogus stats as well.

I stopped doing "predictions" a long time ago.. Found that I stayed more sane that way.

What I can say is that any Jets fan who thinks that this is the same Pats team from week 2 is in for a RUDE awakening. This isn't the same team and I don't believe that the Jets match up very well against this team.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

I am not here to spend 2hrs debating Slauson. I just find it funny that you would say he sucks. You must watch more Jet football than I do.

Since week 4 or 5 Slauson has played fine. In fact, he has had some very good games. He certainly does not suck. Care to back up your point that he currently sucks with examples or numbers?

I've watched part, or all, of every Jets game other than the Jets/Lions game.


Slauson is terrible. And, no, I'm not going to try to get into a statistical breakdown over your favorite NFL team's left guard. The Patriots have their share of problem positions (OLB is still a major concern, along with RCB, just to point to a couple of them), and most here are willing to admit to them. If you can't admit to the obvious things (i.e. Slauson sucks), there's no sense discussing the teams with you.

 

[Sundayjack]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

I've watched part, or all, of every Jets game other than the Jets/Lions game.


Slauson is terrible. And, no, I'm not going to try to get into a statistical breakdown over your favorite NFL team's left guard. The Patriots have their share of problem positions (OLB is still a major concern, along with RCB, just to point to a couple of them), and most here are willing to admit to them. If you can't admit to the obvious things (i.e. Slauson sucks), there's no sense discussing the teams with you.

Just a guess, but I bet you watched Hard Knocks the night where they highlighted Slauson getting treated like a swinging gate. Not representative of his work.

An All Pro? Perhaps not. But, where the Jets are near the top of the league in rushing, sacks (not) allowed, QB hits, and so forth, I don't think "sucks" fits.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Just a guess, but I bet you watched Hard Knocks the night where they highlighted Slauson getting treated like a swinging gate. Not representative of his work.

An All Pro? Perhaps not. But, where the Jets are near the top of the league in rushing, sacks (not) allowed, QB hits, and so forth, I don't think "sucks" fits.

1.) I didn't watch any of the Hard Knocks show.

2.) What part of "I've watched part, or all, of every Jets game other than the Jets/Lions game." escaped your notice?

3.) Slauson sucks. Lumping him in with the rest of line in order to hide his deficiencies doesn't change that.

 

[Sundayjack]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

1.) I didn't watch any of the Hard Knocks show.

2.) What part of "I've watched part, or all, of every Jets game other than the Jets/Lions game." escaped your notice?

3.) Slauson sucks. Lumping him in with the rest of line in order to hide his deficiencies doesn't change that.

Pretty well reasoned. I'm curious, though. While you were busy watching all those games, was it all the sacks he wasn't giving up, all the pressures he wasn't allowing, or all the run blocks that weren't blowing-up that caught your eye? Which, again, isn't to say he's a brick wall or a road grader. But you're weighing quite a lot of suck that doesn't seem to be happening. Statistically, that is.

Nice job with this one, though.

 

[Brady_12]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

well looks like the Pats have 0 chance against this awesome Jets team, should I even go?

No, you shouldn't. What you should do is send your tickets to me. I will suffer in your place. It's a true sacrifice, but I'm up for it.


:singing:

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

No, you shouldn't. What you should do is send your tickets to me. I will suffer in your place. It's a true sacrifice, but I'm up for it.


:singing:

For the record, so you are a martyr?

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Pretty well reasoned. I'm curious, though. While you were busy watching all those games, was it all the sacks he wasn't giving up, all the pressures he wasn't allowing, or all the run blocks that weren't blowing-up that caught your eye? Which, again, isn't to say he's a brick wall or a road grader. But you're weighing quite a lot of suck that doesn't seem to be happening. Statistically, that is.

Nice job with this one, though.

If the Jets are so awesome at every position, why did it take the Jets overtime to beat the Lions and Browns? Huh?

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Pretty well reasoned. I'm curious, though. While you were busy watching all those games, was it all the sacks he wasn't giving up, all the pressures he wasn't allowing, or all the run blocks that weren't blowing-up that caught your eye? Which, again, isn't to say he's a brick wall or a road grader. But you're weighing quite a lot of suck that doesn't seem to be happening. Statistically, that is.

Nice job with this one, though.

A player doesn't have to be an absolute turnstile to suck as an offensive lineman, and one player's struggles can cause disruptions beyond the pure stats. People here spent weeks defending Connolly's job at LG until Mankins returned. Hell, some of them were even hopeful that Mankins wouldn't get back in the lineup. That nonsense is done now, though. People here have seen the difference on the left side of the line now that Mankins has returned. The added bonus for Patriots fans is that Connolly is better on the right side than he is on the left, and his strength is pulling in the run blocking game, so he's been able to replace the injured Neal with far less disruption to the line than there was when he was trying to replace Mankins.

Light and Koppen have both benefited, because they aren't having to cover Connolly's ass the way they had to before. Brady's generally facing less pressure, both on the edge and up the middle. If the Jets had a quality player at LG replacing Slauson, you'd notice the same types of improvement.

And, by the way, we've noted it time and again on this site..... the Jets running game has been in steep decline during the later part of the season to date.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

The fatal mistake that this thread is making is assuming that the Jets are the only team to have improved over that span and not the Pats. Another statistic that bears importance is the fact that Belichick is undefeated in re-matches against teams that he has lost to in the same season.

 

[Sundayjack]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

If the Jets are so awesome at every position, why did it take the Jets overtime to beat the Lions and Browns? Huh?

Where did I make a comment about the Jets being so awesome at every position?

Stupid here is a choice.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

The fatal mistake that this thread is making is assuming that the Jets are the only team to have improved over that span and not the Pats. Another statistic that bears importance is the fact that Belichick is undefeated in re-matches against teams that he has lost to in the same season.

How have the Jets improved during the course of the season since they have not beaten a team with a winning record since week 3?

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

How have the Jets improved during the course of the season since they have not beaten a team with a winning record since week 3?

Santonio Holmes and Calvin Pace being back are big additions. We didn't have to face them in the Week 2 loss. Brady, as of the last seven weeks or so, is MUCH improved than he was in Week 2. Our defense, particularly the younger guys, are also improved since Week 2 as well. As is our offensive line. There are improvements all over the place for the Patriots. Furthermore, we've actually beaten the upper eschelon of the AFC while the Jets have been struggling to put away the likes of the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions.

 

[Sundayjack]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

A player doesn't have to be an absolute turnstile to suck as an offensive lineman, and one player's struggles can cause disruptions beyond the pure stats. People here spent weeks defending Connolly's job at LG until Mankins returned. Hell, some of them were even hopeful that Mankins wouldn't get back in the lineup. That nonsense is done now, though. People here have seen the difference on the left side of the line now that Mankins has returned. The added bonus for Patriots fans is that Connolly is better on the right side than he is on the left, and his strength is pulling in the run blocking game, so he's been able to replace the injured Neal with far less disruption to the line than there was when he was trying to replace Mankins.

Light and Koppen have both benefited, because they aren't having to cover Connolly's ass the way they had to before. Brady's generally facing less pressure, both on the edge and up the middle. If the Jets had a quality player at LG replacing Slauson, you'd notice the same types of improvement.

And, by the way, we've noted it time and again on this site..... the Jets running game has been in steep decline during the later part of the season to date.

Yes, but let's just be clear about what I did and didn't say. Is Slauson the weak point on the Jets line? Probably. You'll have to do better to pin the "sucks" label on him, though. Statistics, as manipulable as they may, wouldn't allow "suck" to hide so well.

I think the better adjective would be "young."

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Stupid here is a choice.

Stupid is denigrating the New England Patriots on the PatsFans message board.

 

[Sundayjack]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Stupid is denigrating the New England Patriots on the PatsFans message board.

Again, where did I denigrate the New England Patriots on this message board? Find and quote the post.

These choices you keep making. Crimeny.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Quite frankly...The Patriots have not faced a team this season who is above average with regards to running the ball & defending the run & defending the pass & explosive pass plays with the punting/kicking to win the field position battle all rolled into one.

How do you beat almost every good team in the NFL and not qualify for this stat?

We've beaten Chargers, # 1 ranked offense and defense IN San Diego. We've beaten the Ravens already. We've beaten Pittsburgh IN Pitt. Honestly, I think the Steelers are better than Jets as a total team. As a matter of fact, I'm sure the Jets have already marked that game down as a loss. Sanchez cannot and will not do what Brady did.

 

[D-Money]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

The jets ran the ball in the first game for 136 yards.They need to stop the run.The patriots only ran for 52 yards.Have to try and be more balance.Dont give up running the football.