First some opinions about differences between week 2 and now:
A) Santonio Holmes as a receiving threat: How will the Patriots deal with him?
DROY candidate Devin McCourty...you know the better corner than Wilson in the 2010 draft...
B) A 100% Darrelle Revis: Who will he cover and can he be as effective as he has been recently? Revis has held Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, and Terrell Owens to 61 yards
total. Will Tom Brady be afraid to throw in his direction?
Against us there are no megatrons to cover, not even the shell of one any more. However...there are two healthy WR's you've yet to face in Welker and Branch, and three TE's two of whom will almost always be on the field, and some kid named Woodhead who has really piled up the all purpose yardage since some knucklehead team cut him...and another we call Lawfirm who while little known has been effective enough in a Brady anchored offense in the absence of Fred Taylor who seems poised to return on Monday night.
C)Calvin Pace as a pass rusher/run stoper: He missed the first 4 games of the season. How will his presence in this game help with the pass rush/run game?
Not as much as you hope with Connelly now at RG and that Mankins guy at LG back from his holdout not to mention two excellent blocking TE's fully assimilated into the mix and a couple of RB rounding into form, one of whom you are familiar with (although not familiar dealing with).
D) O-Line improvement: Jets had a 2nd year player starting in only his second game at RG (Matt Slauson). The Patriots had 3 sacks that game. That has only happened 1 other time this season (Hou). Part of that is Mark Sanchez's ability to escape the rush and still make plays. Will a team that's currently 21's in sacks be able to get constant pressure on the QB? Will they be able to contain Sanchez once/if he escapes the pocket?
Sanchez has been sacked more than Brady in the last 5 weeks...against lesser competition to boot. 10 of his 19 sacks vs. 4 of Brady's 15 total.
Besides said differences between week 2 and now...there are some other things I wanna see:
1) Sumthin's gotta give: Either Tom Brady's 25 straight (regular season) home wins will cease or the Jets current 8 straight (regular season) road winning streak cease. Jets are a better road team than home team anyway, winning 11 of the last 15 games on the road including the playoffs.
Duh...
2) Danny's impact: Will Danny Woodhead and the Patriot running game have an impact in the game vs the Jets? The stats say 'no' he would not. The Jets are the NFL's 4th best rush defense: The Patriots have faced two teams ranked higher: The Chargers (3rd) and the Steelers (1st). They both held the Patriots rushing attack under 100+ yards.
Unlike the JETS we don't have to rush for 100+ yards to win. I think it has something to do with 3) below.
3) Sumthin's gotta give part two: Tom Brady is on Fire. Noticed how I capitalized the F. 23 TD's/4 INT's/2703 passing yards. But he's only passed for 300 + yards twice...vs the Steelers and the Lions. The Jets are 12th in fewest passing YPG (210.6), allow the 4th worst QB rating (75.8), and is tops in the league in lowest completion percentage allowed by opposing QB's (50.3). They held Tom Brady to his 2nd lowest completion percentage this season (55.6), and his 2nd lowest QBR 72.5. Tom Brady has faced 4 teams this season that has allowed fewer passing yardage per game than the Jets. San Diego, Indy, Miami, Baltimore. In those 4 games vs those upper echelon passing defenses Tom has been sacked 11 of his 15 times this season and has thrown for under 200 yards passing in 3 of those games (SD, Miami, Indy).
Yet we won those games. So I guess yardage stats really are meaningless out of context. Scoring stats and efficiency stats are a little better indicator. Brady's trump the Sanchise in every possible manner. Since the bye Mark has thrown 7 of his 16 TD's along with 6 of his 8 picks...
His overall completion % for the season is only 55% vs. Brady's 65%
4) Tom's two losses: They came vs. teams who run the ball well. Jets are 2nd in the league at rushing yards per game and the Cleveland Browns are 12th. They've faced other teams who run the ball well Minnesota (10th) and the Steelers (9th). The Patriots forced the Steelers to play catch-up after getting a huge lead in the game, therefore forcing them to abandon the run. While the rushing attack was able to get the better of the Minnesota and keep Adrian Peterson off the field. In the two games the Patriots lost they were out gained on the ground by 75 (NYJ) and 136 (Cle). Not only did they keep Tom Brady off the field, they eliminated any running threat and thereby putting more pressure on Tom Brady to be flawless.
In losses othe JETSn the other hand...They could not score a passing TD...not to mention his last 4 wins came largely against non playoff teams who spit the bit (sometimes multiple times) in the waning minutes of those games - as opposed to facing three straight playoff contenders (two of whom we faced on the road...).
5) Multifaceted threat:
If you can either take away or match the one or two things that another team can do then you've got a good strategy/game plan. Belichick is a master of both. Problem is the Jets are very good at a lot of things and not GREAT any any one or two things. We all know this will be the best rushing offense the Pats will have faced all season. But what else is there? Well...the Jets avg 40.1 net yards punting (5th in the league) and are tied for the league lead with 26 punts killed inside the 20. They are 2nd in the league in kick return average at 26.9. All this adds up to winning the battle of field position. They are 9th in the league with 37 passing plays of 20+ yards and 6th in the league with 9 passing plays of 40+ yards, both ranking are higher than New England's, despite all the Mark Sanchez naysayers out there. The Jets have only allowed 1 300+ passing game all season (Chad Henne) and that was without Darrelle Revis.
That cuts both ways. We are perhaps the most balanced team in the playoff mix at the moment. Our defense is young (and fast) and gives up lots of yards...but they are beginning to make the plays that are the foundation of the bend but don't break defense that won us 3 out of 4 of the 9 championships contested in the last 9 years. We used to have one thing that teams could try and take away. We've moved on from that scenario. We now have 4-5 things you all have to try and take away simultaneously. Since the move only one team has managed to meet that challenge...in a trap game that was a learning tool for BB. The JETS have been playing down to inferior competition for the last month. There was only one QB with the potential for a 300+ yard game in the mix, and considering he plays for a perrenial disapointment...you were lucky to escape with another close shave there.
Quite frankly...The Patriots have not faced a team this season who is above average with regards to running the ball & defending the run & defending the pass & explosive pass plays with the punting/kicking to win the field position battle all rolled into one. Not to mention the Jets have the 4th best starting field position in the NFL. This is the best combination of offense, defense and special teams in the NFL. This is why I think the Jets will win by a touchdown next Monday.
Why I thought we had faced at least one of those... It isn't even arguable we've faced a tougher schedule and more playoff contenders than the JETS. We still have to face GB (who shut you out), as well as Chicago and a potentially resurgent Buffalo as well as Miami. You have yet to face those last three plus the 8-3 Steelers. Which is why I think we win the division without getting into tie breakers.
I predict Jets 27 - Patriots 20.
Predictions are fools play. That said, I predict Brady will break the tie and hold the record for most consecutive home game wins by a comfortable margin come the end of this regular season.
People want to Jump on the San Diego Chargers bandwagon...but of their 5 losses 3 of them were to teams under .500. Not me sir. Would rather barely win vs sub .500 teams than lose to them
That's like loser on loser crime... I'd rather win in the playoffs than anything, but that probably comes from a decade of watching my team do that more often than yours...
I will be here all week, respectful, and would appreciate the same in return.
Oh joy. The real question is will you be here next week?
Reponses....comments...rebuttals?
