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An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec. 6th

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by eifmp, Nov 29, 2010.

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  1. eifmp

    eifmp On the Game Day Roster

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    First some opinions about differences between week 2 and now:

    A) Santonio Holmes as a receiving threat: How will the Patriots deal with him?

    B) A 100% Darrelle Revis: Who will he cover and can he be as effective as he has been recently? Revis has held Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, and Terrell Owens to 61 yards total. Will Tom Brady be afraid to throw in his direction?

    C)Calvin Pace as a pass rusher/run stoper: He missed the first 4 games of the season. How will his presence in this game help with the pass rush/run game?

    D) O-Line improvement: Jets had a 2nd year player starting in only his second game at RG (Matt Slauson). The Patriots had 3 sacks that game. That has only happened 1 other time this season (Hou). Part of that is Mark Sanchez's ability to escape the rush and still make plays. Will a team that's currently 21's in sacks be able to get constant pressure on the QB? Will they be able to contain Sanchez once/if he escapes the pocket?

    Besides said differences between week 2 and now...there are some other things I wanna see:

    1) Sumthin's gotta give: Either Tom Brady's 25 straight (regular season) home wins will cease or the Jets current 8 straight (regular season) road winning streak cease. Jets are a better road team than home team anyway, winning 11 of the last 15 games on the road including the playoffs.

    2) Danny's impact: Will Danny Woodhead and the Patriot running game have an impact in the game vs the Jets? The stats say 'no' he would not. The Jets are the NFL's 4th best rush defense: The Patriots have faced two teams ranked higher: The Chargers (3rd) and the Steelers (1st). They both held the Patriots rushing attack under 100+ yards.

    3) Sumthin's gotta give part two: Tom Brady is on Fire. Noticed how I capitalized the F. 23 TD's/4 INT's/2703 passing yards. But he's only passed for 300 + yards twice...vs the Steelers and the Lions. The Jets are 12th in fewest passing YPG (210.6), allow the 4th worst QB rating (75.8), and is tops in the league in lowest completion percentage allowed by opposing QB's (50.3). They held Tom Brady to his 2nd lowest completion percentage this season (55.6), and his 2nd lowest QBR 72.5. Tom Brady has faced 4 teams this season that has allowed fewer passing yardage per game than the Jets. San Diego, Indy, Miami, Baltimore. In those 4 games vs those upper echelon passing defenses Tom has been sacked 11 of his 15 times this season and has thrown for under 200 yards passing in 3 of those games (SD, Miami, Indy).

    4) Tom's two losses: They came vs. teams who run the ball well. Jets are 2nd in the league at rushing yards per game and the Cleveland Browns are 12th. They've faced other teams who run the ball well Minnesota (10th) and the Steelers (9th). The Patriots forced the Steelers to play catch-up after getting a huge lead in the game, therefore forcing them to abandon the run. While the rushing attack was able to get the better of the Minnesota and keep Adrian Peterson off the field. In the two games the Patriots lost they were out gained on the ground by 75 (NYJ) and 136 (Cle). Not only did they keep Tom Brady off the field, they eliminated any running threat and thereby putting more pressure on Tom Brady to be flawless.

    5) Multifaceted threat: If you can either take away or match the one or two things that another team can do then you've got a good strategy/game plan. Belichick is a master of both. Problem is the Jets are very good at a lot of things and not GREAT any any one or two things. We all know this will be the best rushing offense the Pats will have faced all season. But what else is there? Well...the Jets avg 40.1 net yards punting (5th in the league) and are tied for the league lead with 26 punts killed inside the 20. They are 2nd in the league in kick return average at 26.9. All this adds up to winning the battle of field position. They are 9th in the league with 37 passing plays of 20+ yards and 6th in the league with 9 passing plays of 40+ yards, both ranking are higher than New England's, despite all the Mark Sanchez naysayers out there. The Jets have only allowed 1 300+ passing game all season (Chad Henne) and that was without Darrelle Revis.

    Quite frankly...The Patriots have not faced a team this season who is above average with regards to running the ball & defending the run & defending the pass & explosive pass plays with the punting/kicking to win the field position battle all rolled into one. Not to mention the Jets have the 4th best starting field position in the NFL. This is the best combination of offense, defense and special teams in the NFL. This is why I think the Jets will win by a touchdown next Monday.

    I predict Jets 27 - Patriots 20.

    People want to Jump on the San Diego Chargers bandwagon...but of their 5 losses 3 of them were to teams under .500. Not me sir. Would rather barely win vs sub .500 teams than lose to them

    I will be here all week, respectful, and would appreciate the same in return.

    Reponses....comments...rebuttals?
     
  2. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar In the Starting Line-Up

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    I get up in the morning to enjoy my 15 minutes of Pats Fans to find this crap.........oh wait a minute that's what this thread reminds me of. I have something else to do this morning. Now if only I could flush this too.
     
  3. Tyler.Durden

    Tyler.Durden Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    You don't win football games with pens and paper.

    It's Brady vs Sanchez and we know how that goes. I want to see how you deal with McCourty, Chung, Meriweather & Mayo.

    See what you can do against BJGE, Woodhead, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Welker, Branch and Tate.

    Mankins is back and our pass rushers just had a week off to prepare for the JETS.

    I'm predicting 3+ INTS from Sanchez.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  4. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    The Patriots are playing better football than the Jets at the moment. Stats or not both sides are remarkably different from the first match up, the game is being played in Foxboro and it's a divisional match up with proven versus untried.

    It makes for interesting viewing.
     
  5. RhodyPatriot

    RhodyPatriot In the Starting Line-Up

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Your linebackers can't cover the pass. You are very vunerable in the middle of the field. Brady will have a field day. Expect huge games from Gronkowski and Hernandez.
     
  6. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Yeah, all those rookies the Pats have this year haven't gotten any better, more experienced or more familiar with the playbook over the past 10 weeks. ;)

    Let's face it EIFMP, you aren't seeing the forest for the trees here.

    Wayne Gretzky was ahead of every other hockey player because he didn't play the puck, he played to where the puck was going.

    The New England Patriots, as a team, is younger and deeper than any other team in the NFL. I wrote at the beginning of the season that the best we could hope for (especially on D) is that the Pats would not be out of contention for the playoffs by Thanksgiving and maybe the youngsters by then would start hitting their stride and gelling and maybe we could sneak into the playoffs during this rebuilding year.


    Get it? In New England, our REBUILDING years look like this. When we lose the best QB on earth in the first game, we still go 11-5 riding the backup.

    These youngsters have destroyed all expectations. Next April? 6 picks in the first 3 rounds (Ostensibly, 3 first rounders - - see Panthers, Carolina).

    Regarding this game, I like the Patriots chances, but respect that the Jets loaded up for this season (a far more successful "win today" version of the Minnesota Vikings).

    Last decade belonged to us and this new decade will too. You're just going to have to live with it.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  7. sarge

    sarge Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    To date the Jets have not faced near the same talents the Pats have, and the Jets have barely scraped by facing that lesser talent. Would like to see what the Jets record would look like if you also had to face Indy Pitt and Sandiego.

    The only team the Jets have beaten with a winning record is the Pats, and the Pats where moving the ball pretty well before Brady decided to force the ball to Moss after Revis went out.

    Your points are certainly valid. But lets see how it plays out. Your defense was much better last season when Brady scorched them in game 2.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  8. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    I disagree. I can respect a guy to come in here a "reasonable" talk football talk and justify why he thinks his team will win. Even a JETS fan. He isn't talking smack at least, like 3/4 of the other DBags Jet fans that come on here to post.

    I don't believe a word of what he's saying. Face it, the Jets are playing average football right now, that's it. They are finding ways to win against subpar teams, but they certainly are not a team to be feared. Should be an interesting game.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  9. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Living in Toronto and not getting every Pats game locally, I've ended up watching many Jets games this season, more than the average Jets fan has seen of the Pats. I think some perspective is needed on your post.

    Braylon Edwards abused Butler in the first match-up. If they leave him on that side with Arrington, that leaves our first-round pick Devin McCourty on Holmes, which is how I would wish for things to go anyways. He's by far our best cover corner.

    The Jets have perhaps the best set of corners in the NFL, but can they cover two shifty guys like Welker and Branch? They did a good job shutting down a big target with speed like Moss, but it's a different skill set to cover the smaller guys. I think Revis can handle Wes or Branch, but I wonder/doubt if Cro can do the same.

    And what will they do about the tight ends, either Gronk or Hernandez or both? The TE has been killing the Jets lately, and the change in safeties didn't really help. There's not a good answer here for the Jets.

    Pace is a very good player and makes that defense better. But without Moss, Brady has focused on the short/intermediate passing game as a result, with the ball coming out a lot quicker. Pace will become more of a factor if the corners can stay with the receivers longer. The run game isn't as big of a factor, as it's not an essential component to what we do. The offense's game plan changes each week depending on the opponent, so if we can't run the ball, it's not as critical as it is for say the Jets or the Chiefs.

    Man, Slauson looked bad in week 2. But he has gotten better. Could he really have gotten worse though? ;)

    I don't think his improvement is more than the improvement by our DL though, with Brace and Deaderick stabilizing that line. I do worry about Sanchez's mobility and ability to extend plays with his feet, and our pass rushing OLBs have missed a lot of QBs (Tully, Ninko, I'm looking at you guys). But Sanchez also sometimes tries to do too much. We're talking about a lot of different things, but really a lot of this game comes down to how the two QBs handle the game.

    The Jets have beaten some crappy teams, but they've won, and they've come back to win a lot of those games. That means something. They have the tough mentality to grind out a road win, even when they're not playing their best. This will be a good game.

    The running game doesn't really matter as I mentioned before. However, you'd be mistaken if you think Woody's only impact is running the ball. He's a great check-down option in the passing game. The Jets have made some solid personnel moves, but letting this guy go was inexcusable.

    Just don't forget to add that Tom was also 4-1 against those upper echelon pass defenses. The yardage isn't as significant to me, as we switch up the game plans all the time and he is patient enough to take all of those short passes. In 2 of the 4 games you mentioned, his passer rating was over 100, and his TD to INT ratio was 6 to 2 (with one INT on a hail mary). Against the Jets, he threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs, both forced passes to Moss.

    As I mentioned in previous posts, the Jets running game is on the decline. They're averaging 20 to 30 yards less per game, Tomlinson is fading fast, and Greene continues to be inconsistent. The only thing keeping that run game respectable over the past 6 games is Brad Smith in the Seminole.

    The Jets are a good team, but statistically, they've played nobody and so those edges are a bit misleading. While it's true the Patriots probably haven't played a better team than the Jets, it's definitely true that the Jets haven't played a better team than this re-vamped Patriots squad. Week 2 was so long ago, Welker was still recovering, we were still forcing throws to Moss, no Woody, McCourty still learning, Butler still thrashing about...

    And we were still up 14-10 at halftime in that game. It was an awful second half that led to the loss, but it's not like we didn't have a shot.

    I appreciate your comments, very long, in-depth, hope to hear back from you some more. And looking forward to one of the great games of the year, perhaps the biggest regular season game this season. Cheers.
     
  10. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Here is the major difference: the Patriots have BB as their coach. The Green Beans have a bloviating carnival barker.
     
  11. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    I agree. A few of the responses have been disappointing. Why shouldn't he believe in his team? They're 9-2, playing OK football and have the biggest regular season match the Jets have seen in years coming up.

    Nothing eifmp has said is controversial or demeaning. It looks like he wants to actually talk football and he should be treated accordingly.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  12. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Pro Bowl Player

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    mankins is a bigger addition to the pats than either pace or holmes to the jets.

    where was the last away game they lost? thought so.

    in the week 2 loss, the pats had no problems moving the ball on the jets at will until they decided to force it to randy moss.

    LT is not as effective as he was in week 2

    the subtraction of randy moss and the addition of deion branch has made the pats offense much harder to predict and stop. the return of dink and dunk will kill the jets because it is the one thing their defense has no answer for. I want to see jim leonard match up on rob gronkowski. I want to see any jets LB try to run with hernandez. between the deep middle and the flat, the jets LB's will be chasing their tails. The blitz will not work, but if the jets don't blitz and give brady all day, then he will destroy them.

    38-20, pats
     
  13. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Considering the Jets' passing offense is Jeckyl and Hyde, Holmes could be a non-factor. Even in games where he made the game winning catch, he was relatively quite for most of the game. I like Devin McCourty's chances when he is covering him since he totally shut out Megatron on plays covering him on Thursday.

    By his own admission, Revis doesn't match up well with the Pats' type of receivers. He can handle the big outside WRs as well as anyone, but he struggles with small, shifty receivers. Same can be said about Cromartie.

    Except the Jets haven't been pressuring the QB at all (other than the second half of the Bengals game). One of the more underrated stories about the Jets right now is how they are struggling to pressure opposing QBs. This one of the biggest reasons why they have let average and bad teams hang around or comeback from huge deficits. Even blitzing, they aren't getting much pressure. They can't get pressure of any sort with a four man rush.

    If the Jets blitz Brady a lot they will lose, this creates match up problems for the Jets' secondary. Brady almost always picks apart blitzing teams (hence why he does so well vs. Pittsburgh). He struggles against teams that can pressure him with four man rushes which the Jets can't do. With a blitz, Brady can use his quick release, his uncanny pocket presence, and ability to quickly to go through progressions to find the open man and with all his options he will have open men. The last game Brady picked apart the Jets when they blitzed and the Jets adjusted to drop extra players in coverage and then shut him down.


    The Pats o-line has improved too. Mankins is back.

    I also disagree that the o-line is better. Look at some of the offensive production of the Jets. Their running game has fallen apart compared to what it was early in the season. Sanchez has eight INTs in the last six games and some of those are because he was hit as he was throwing (see the Bengals game) or flushed out of the pocket.


    Except if you look over the last month and a half and the Jets haven't been running the ball that well. In the last month, the combination of BJGE and Woodhead has been more productive than Tomlinson and Greene.

    And they won't on Monday. The Jets are not above average running the ball. At least not since they played Minnesota. Yes, statistically they are in the top 5, but that was because they put up gaudy rushing numbers in the first month and a half. They haven't run the ball well in a month or so. Yes, they did have a "great" running performance against the Bengals, but Brad Smith had about a third of their yards on one play on their version of the Wildcat.

    I'm not ready to make a prediction yet, but I like the Pats' chances. The Pats' offense is built to exploit the Jetss' defense's weaknesses. If the Pats can keep the Jets' offense in check, they could win decisively. Not ready to say that though.

    I do think the X factor could be Spygate II. I fully expect Belichick's press conference with the opposing team's media on Wednesday to be a complete rehash of Spygate. If this has the same effect as Spygate I had on the team, the team will rally around Belichick and want to punch the Jets in the mouth and make them pay for rehashing old wounds. It could work the other way and throw the team in disarray, but I am betting the former will be more likely to happen.,
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  14. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Don't count on a big ST advantage. The Pats' KR game was on fire early in the season. Getting that back will likely be a point of focus, and has a good chance of succeeding.

    Kick coverage has been an issue with a mid-season kicker change, but that can be improved too.

    Rex does have 4 extra days to scheme against Brady, but there's only so much you can do against a spread offense. And with several guys who can make big gains out of short passes, the Pats are as well equipped to handle a jailbreak blitz as any team in the league.

    The Jets' best chance on defense is to hope that Revis can cover Welker, Cromartie can cover Branch, and the rest of the guys can consistently delay the Pats' TEs at the line. But it's tough to tell a story in which all that works while also leaving enough guys left over to be a serious pass rushing threat. So I'm pretty optimistic about the Patriots' offense -- and note that it isn't particularly weather-dependent.
     
  15. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    You morons also predicted the New England Patriots would do no better than 9-7!
     
  16. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Cool, thanks. Now that I know how the game will end I don't havre to fly 9000miles and freezes my nuts off.

    My nuts and I thank you.
     
  17. serifyn

    serifyn Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Damn sounds like the jets only have to roll their helmets out there to get the W, i mean the pats might as well not even play this game, i heard it going to be cold out there.

    Stats are great and all, but use the eyeball test here to compare teams.

    The jets have barely won 4/5 of their last games, alot of them going into overtime, and they haven't exactly been against the cream of the crop either, now they have the W from these games and you could make the arguement that a W is the only thing that matters, but the patriots arent the lions, texans or broncos.

    meanwhile the patriots have beaten almost every team projected to make the playoffs in the AFC (except the jets of course), they have done this on short weeks, going to places like San Diego and Pittsburgh.

    Revis and Cromartie are good, but the jets pass rush hasent been as great this year as it has in the past, and like the patriots did against Pittsburgh they will utilize their tight ends in a method which will punish the jets for blitzing and utilize them for blocking when they need to.

    the patriots have one of the best quarterbacks who has ever played the game, and although sanchez has shown some pretty good things this year, he cant match brady. if the patriots can fool manning into throwing 3 interceptions, they should be able to fool sanchise as well. the pats on the other hand haven't turned the ball over in about 4-5 games. tom has a perfect passer rating for the last 3 games in 11 days and now that he is playing at home again, except him to be even more confident.

    im not saying this is going to be easy, the jets are 9-2 for a reason they play a well balanced game with one of the best defenses in the league, im just saying Tom Brady right now is back to 2007 form, he and belichick have 10 days to prepare for a team he hates and knows better than any team in the league at home. im just sayin'.
     
  18. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Thanks. I think some other Jets' posters are so rude that some forum members gave you their knee jerk reaction. The board welcomes oppo posters who are knowledgeable and, as you put it, respectful.

    You make some good points in your analysis, which adds up to what everyone is saying about this game: it will be close and hard-fought...probably not settled until the final possession.

    I think you overestimate the role that a guy like Revis can play with the kind of passing attack the Pats now have where Brady's favorite target seems to be, as it was in 2001--04, "whoever is open." We have two young and future star Tight Ends in Gronk and Hernandez and two wily veteran WR's in Branch and Welker plus a young, fast and dangerous Brandon Tate. Taking away any one piece on any given play really doesn't bother Brady; he either just looks for the next guy or dumps it off to Woody in the backfield if the rush is coming.

    Speaking of the rush; the O-Line is about 50% better than before with the return of Logan Mankins. Brady got the ball off in under two seconds much of the game against the Colts when they were coming at him. So, yeah, you'll probably get a couple of sacks or knockdowns, but I don't think it will dictate the tempo of the game.

    Our running game is a lot better than it was when we faced you before and I think it now actually has to be taken seriously; it's a good thing for us that most teams don't take it seriously and usually realize that BJGE and Woody have over 125 yards between them when it's too late.

    But, none of that changes the fact that it will be a close game in which I really like our chances. I actually now think that Sanchez could one day be a big time NFL QB, but I think Brady will be the difference on what the long range forecasts now say will be a cold and windy night with a bit of snow falling.

    I think the Jets are right to feel that they still have a lot to prove this season.

    Until the Fins got to 6--5 yesterday, the only team with a winning record that you'd beaten was the Pats. Take away the Pats and the teams you've beaten have a combined record of 43--67.

    Since you lost to the Packers, the teams against which you have squeaked out your last four wins (OK, the Bengals game wasn't a squeaker) have a combined record of 13--31.

    The Pats have already defeated the Steelers and Chargers in their houses and the Colts and Ravens at home.

    Every team you face the rest of the way, except for the Bills, has a winning record and, even including the Bills, are 33--21. So, now is the time to start proving something. I don't think you will, but if you do, I'll give credit where credit is due.
     
  19. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Stat's are for losers!
     
  20. JSn

    JSn Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

    Are you really flying home for the game?
     
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