Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.
It's nice to have a Jets fan come in here and try to make an intelligent argument and talk football for once.
The one question I would ask you is, between the first game in week 2, and now, how have the Jets improved? I don't watch them as much as you have, obviously so you would have a good feel for how to answer that question.
I, on the other hand, have a good grasp on how the Patriots have improved vastly and plan to detail that in a separate thread. But I would be interested in your opinion. I have asked this question before but it went unanswered, so hopefully you or another Jets fan could answer this.
Well here I am. Back to answer your question. But first...
I opened the thread with opinions, backed by statistics, and have gotten bashed in some responses. Disappointing.
I just want to mention some things I read in reply to my initial post.
A) I goofed up. I didn't see that the Patriots ran for over 100+ yards vs the Steelers. I didn't purposely overlook it, I just didn't see it.
B) Yes the Jets running game has gone down recently with regards to LT and Greene. The Wildcat/Seminole has been a saving grace in regards to that fact.
C) The Jets have more sacks (24) this season, than they had this time last season. The pass rush/blitz/is still there. Thing about it is the sacks are spread out J.Taylor (4), Calvin Pace (3.5), Sean Ellis (3.5), Bryan Thomas (3), David Harris (2)...and so on. They don't have a pass rushing specialist like a Clay Matthews or a Cameron Wake, but they still get their sacks. Calvin Pace on the edge and big body Trevor Price in the middle will new aspects for the Pats O-line to handle.
And now I respond to the question in bold.
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1) Mark Sanchez & Santonio Holmes chemistry: It's not a surprise that once Holmes and Sanchez became familiar on the field Mark Sanchez passing yards have increased. Before Santonio Holmes, Sanchez passed for a pedestrian 177.8 yards per game. After Holmes' arrival that has increased to 251.6 yards per game...a 73.82 passing YPG increase. And although Sanchez does have 8 interceptions in his last 6 games, for the season he does have a 2:1 TD to interception ratio. Not to mention my no. 2 improvement...
2) Comeback wins: 4th quarter & overtime comeback wins vs. Denver, Houston, Cleveland, & Detroit. What do those 4 teams have in common? Yes, they're all sub .500 teams. But they all (as of right now) are ranked higher than the Patriots pass defense which is last in the league. Mark Sanchez passed for an average of 287 vs those defenses. His teammates have more faith in him now more than ever to lead this team. The Patriot defense does not match-up well with the Jets weapons and Sanchez should be able to pass against this defense with ease.
3) Revis helps the secondary. Since Darrelle Revis has returned to 100% following the bye week, QB's are averaging only a 51.6% completion rate, 205 passing yards, and 1 TD per game vs the Jets. The highest completion percentage & passing yards the Jets have allowed all year were to 1 person, Chad Henne, with 59.1 & 363 respectively. The majority of New England passing yards are after the catch, showing no vertical threat. If the Jets tackle well and prevent YAC, they will significantly improve their chances.
Finally I have questions I would like to ask of all Patriot fans out there:
1. Can we all agree that Tom Brady has to play perfectly in order for the Patriots to win games this season? When he hasn't...they've struggled because they're near average everywhere else on the team. Patriot fans are looking at the Sanchez vs Brady match-up to determine who's going to win. But I've demonstrated that not many quarterbacks have done that well vs the Jets this season.
Why will Tom Brady have a better shot this time than last time?
2. How will the Patriots get to Sanchez? Patriots have 20 sacks in 11 games, while the Jets have only allowed 19 in 11 games. The Patriots 32nd ranked pass defense says that either you'll have to get after him or you'll give up yardage. Backup Lions QB Shaun Hill passed for 285 yards vs this defense and put up 24 points
despite 2 interceptions. That should worry Patriots fans when playing a MUCH better defense in the Jets. The only two times the Jets have lost this season is when they have failed to score touchdowns.
What do you expect The Patriot defense to do with regards to the Jets offense in this game?
3. Vegas odds put the Patriots as only 3.5 point favorites vs the Jets. Now, anyone who follows and cares about Vegas odds knows that the home field advantage is worth 3 points.
So basically bet makers think that the Jets Pats game is a push. DO you agree or disagree? Why? (I know, I know it sounds like an English comp. question)
4. Last year in New England, Mark Sachez had 4 interceptions and 1 lost fumble in a 31-14 loss. This year he is much more judicious with the football. I've read some posts that think Mark Sanchez will have 3+ interceptions in this game. But unlike Manning and the Colts, you have to respect the running game of the Jets and cannot always tee off on the quarterback expecting a pass most of the time.
If Mark Sanchez plays error free football (no picks, no fumbles) what percentage chance do you think the Patriots have of winning?
Thank you for your time. I've got to get a snack.
). In 2007 I was 2-1. You can probably figure out what that loss was.
