Patriots Safety Position, Team May Stand Pat With Duron Harmon

[mgteich]

Yes, Harmon had a promising season. That doesn't mean that I am ready to count on him as a starter with Tavon Wilson as the only backup.

I thought Harmon had a very promising season.*

*sparse data will be extrapolated based on a brew concocted of hopes and dreams supported by performance numbers obtained outside of football (e.g., combine), old coaching endorsements, and whatever other scraps seem supportive.

 

[supafly]

Perhaps it take awhile before we understand, but we should understand by now that we need to look to free agency for our safety or safeties. Belichick has spent lots and lots of draft resources drafting safeties, with almost nothing to show. The best was James Sanders.

It is time to look to free agency. After all, Belichick understands that certain positions are best filled in free agency, others in the draft.

Our situation at safety looking forward is really precarious. We have ONE fine starter who is probably looking forward to very bid payday in the new cap environment (he is in his contract year). And we have two developmental prospects: Harmon and T. Wilson.

I agree that FA would be our hopes in finding an adequate safety. I was simply pointing out that we could choose to fill the need via both avenues, as another draft pick could very well be explored as well. This is due to the obvious lack of depth/warm bodies/talent at the position.

If it were up to me, I'd choose to go both avenues to fill the position and give it proper competition. Luckily, as we all know--it's not up to me

 

[Tunescribe]

As much as I wanted an upgrade from Gregory, I'm not sure that Harmon is the answer. There is not enough body of work to conclude that he will be an upgrade. I question that when Gregory came back from injury last year, why didn't Harmon stay in the starting line-up if he is the better option. Are they hoping for the year 1 to year 2 jump? We didn't get it with Tavon Wilson. I would definitely look at the draft or bringing in a free agent. I would also like to get more physical back there, bring in a little intimidation.

Couldn't have said it better myself. But I wouldn't be surprised if they do go with Harmon and keep their fingers crossed that he can come somewhere close to Gregory's level of performance. As I noted in a previous thread (and got blasted for it), the decision to let Gregory go was more about saving money on the cap than it was about immediately upgrading the position.

 

[supafly]

Yes, Harmon had a promising season. That doesn't mean that I am ready to count on him as a starter with Tavon Wilson as the only backup.

I think the only way we're good with Harmon being the starter is if 2 things happen (along with Harmon showing the ability to start, which has already been implied) :

1. We also take a high draft pick at safety

2. We choose a lower/mid level free agent as well

The higher draft pick (Buchanon etc) could compete not only for the starting role (doubtful since Harmon would have an extra year), but he'd compete with the lower/mid level free agent as our S3.

This could mean that Tavon/Adrian would have a battle of the Wilsons in an epic steel cage match bloodbath. Of course, this would likely be just "getting by" at the position, unless one of Harmon/high draft pick/lower level FA really took off.

 

[Kontradiction]

Just because the team didn't play him isn't necessarily a reflection of how good he is. Without knowing what schemes they ran or what technique on what play he was supposed, it's impossible to know what exactly the screwup was.

Hence what you say is speculation, anything else you're just deluding yourself.

Again, we'll see how things turn out this summer/fall. My educated guess is that he turns out fine and makes that second year leap because he flashed good instincts. That, you cannot teach.

I'm not sure what you saw in order to make you believe that you saw enough postive to peg him as a starting caliber SS in this league, but every report I read after Pittsburgh and other games coupled with what I saw state he was very up and down. He made some positive plays, yes. But he also made quite a few negative plays that those with All-22 have backed me up on. I have to believe that you're drawing your conclusion on Keyed's analysis which I already pointed out was flawed from the get-go (he said that Harmon didn't give up a TD in coverage all season and I showed that he gave up a TD to Tamme vs. Denver). Other than that, again, unless I missed him on the injury report, Gregory assumed his job once he came back and Harmon dropped to the third string behind Wilson, losing snaps to him at the end of the season. Now you're more than welcome to think that what I just said is a positive sign for Harmon, but the fact of the matter is that it wasn't. Can he make the leap? Sure. But I saw nothing in his first season to indicate that it will happen.

 

[supafly]

I'm not sure what you saw in order to make you believe that you saw enough postive to peg him as a starting caliber SS in this league, but every report I read after Pittsburgh and other games coupled with what I saw state he was very up and down. He made some positive plays, yes. But he also made quite a few negative plays that those with All-22 have backed me up on. I have to believe that you're drawing your conclusion on Keyed's analysis which I already pointed out was flawed from the get-go (he said that Harmon didn't give up a TD in coverage all season and I showed that he gave up a TD to Tamme vs. Denver). Other than that, again, unless I missed him on the injury report, Gregory assumed his job once he came back and Harmon dropped to the third string behind Wilson, losing snaps to him at the end of the season. Now you're more than welcome to think that what I just said is a positive sign for Harmon, but the fact of the matter is that it wasn't. Can he make the leap? Sure. But I saw nothing in his first season to indicate that it will happen.

I would agree. That's why I think we either go one of two ways.

We either bring in a real safety in free agency, or choose to give Duron Harmon enough competition via another higher draft pick + some other smaller moves as well.

 

[BobDigital]

I think the difference between Harmon & Gregory would have been negligible this year which is probably way they where quick to cut Gregory out of respect. If Harmon starts I don't think they will lose much (might even gain slightly if he makes a good 2nd year jump). However we really need that 3rd rotational safety so Harmon and McCourty can take plays off and incase one gets injured.

Personally though I think the way to go is a high draft pick or FA signing to get your true starter at SS and Harmon is a top level backup.

Either way you need a 3rd safety reguardless of who you want your starter to be. I don't mind them not upgrading Harmon PROVIDED they use their resources to improve some other spot on their D.

If you get top DT & DE free agents then Harmon/McCourty will be plenty good as is as long as they have a so-so backup.

 

[PP2]

I'm not sure what you saw in order to make you believe that you saw enough postive to peg him as a starting caliber SS in this league, but every report I read after Pittsburgh and other games coupled with what I saw state he was very up and down. He made some positive plays, yes. But he also made quite a few negative plays that those with All-22 have backed me up on. I have to believe that you're drawing your conclusion on Keyed's analysis which I already pointed out was flawed from the get-go (he said that Harmon didn't give up a TD in coverage all season and I showed that he gave up a TD to Tamme vs. Denver). Other than that, again, unless I missed him on the injury report, Gregory assumed his job once he came back and Harmon dropped to the third string behind Wilson, losing snaps to him at the end of the season. Now you're more than welcome to think that what I just said is a positive sign for Harmon, but the fact of the matter is that it wasn't. Can he make the leap? Sure. But I saw nothing in his first season to indicate that it will happen.

I haven't read Keyed's analysis. All I'm going by is my own judgment. I didn't deny that Harmon has had his ups and downs. What rookie doesn't?

The size sample he's given us this past season is too small to pass reliable judgment on. I haven't judged him too far either way, beyond recognizing that he flashed talent at times.

You claim that Harmon sank down the depth chart at season's end, but you seem to have forgot that he subbed in for McCourty who had the concussion, and put in two solid performances vs. the Ravens/Bills.

 

[mgteich]

I really hope that we are not having this debate at draft time. For once, I think that we should address the situation in free agency.

I don't like to go into the draft with a more than one severe current positional needs. For me, we already have TE and DL as those needs.

However, I certainly have no problem with us drafting yet another safety to compete. It just seems wrong to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.

 

[kennyb]

Re: Patriots Safety Position, Team May Stand Pat most likelWith Duron Harmon

Most likely, they will sign jairus byrd. I wonder if he's relayed to larry. Or maybe someone else.

 

[yopats]

Stevie Brown might be a solid pickup as well. He had a great 2012 year before tearing an ACL in August of last year.

 

[Ring 6]

I really hope that we are not having this debate at draft time. For once, I think that we should address the situation in free agency.

I don't like to go into the draft with a more than one severe current positional needs. For me, we already have TE and DL as those needs.

However, I certainly have no problem with us drafting yet another safety to compete. It just seems wrong to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.

Quite a curious description of using draft picks to build a roster.

 

[patsfan13]

We all talk about the limited number of reps we saw in the regular season.

What we didn't see was all the reps in practice, we didn't see the work in the film room, we didn't see how coachable he wa ect, ect. BB has see all of the about and is projecting his 2nd year progression on all these factors.

I am not saying he will be R Harrison OTOH he doesn't need to be.

With the moves that BB makes/doesn't make we will be able to infer how he feels about Harmon which is what matters.

 

[mgteich]

The description did not refer to using draft picks to build a roster.

The description referred to Belichick's inability to use the draft to find safeties. I am fine with using the draft to build a roster, and to fill in with midlevel and JAG free agents, always favoring re-signing our own free agents. HOWEVER, there are some situations, and some positions where it becomes reasonable and right to depend on free agency. Do you disagree?

I see that this is the time to sign a starting safety in free agency. Some thought that last year was the time. Apparently, Belichick was confident enough in Gregory (and A Wilson) to try to use the draft again.

Quite a curious description of using draft picks to build a roster.

 

[zimmy]

I like Harmon. He's solid and won't lose you a game but he's not going to make our defence better.

Annoyingly what we need is some experience back there but the value seems to be through the draft rather than free agency.

 

[mgteich]

Why do you think this?

Annoyingly what we need is some experience back there but the value seems to be through the draft rather than free agency.

 

[zimmy]

Why do you think this?

The players that are really going to improve us back there are Byrd and Ward. Both are going to get $40m deals. Far too rich for us, especially with a extension for McCourty due.

We have an inexperienced secondary, especially if Talib does not return. We seem to add draft picks to it every year. If there was a veteran of good value who could come in a la Rodney in 2003 that would be fantastic but there doesn't seem to be one out there.

There are good players in the draft though at both safety and corner but it will take time for them to learn the D and make an impact. That sets us back slightly. Just my opinion.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Patsfans.com posters wildly overreacted to a couple of decent plays with Harmon and Ryan. This is the norm around here. Sudfeld, T. Wilson, Chung, etc., etc., etc....

They thought Last year's FA class was awesome, too, for a little while. :bricks:

Not sure how Ryan gets lumped in with the others that you list here. Logan Ryan had an excellent rookie season. Only Richard Sherman allowed a lower passer rating on targets attempted in his direction, and he had gained Belichick's trust enough by the end of the season to be battling Dennard for starter status. His 5 interceptions are nice as well, although certainly some of them were fortuitous, as are nearly all interceptions.

The data roundly suggests he was good, so to dismiss that (which I'm sure you will) would rely simply on the eye test. My eye test liked him as much as rookie Dennard, if not more, and the only rookie corners who I have liked more than Ryan in the past ten years on the Pats have been Samuel and McCourty.

I would be disappointed to see the team bring in no other corners if Talib leaves in free agency, but I also expect Ryan to be a very good player for the team next season. I really don't see how liking Ryan, who showed up and played well on the field in real games that count, is akin to liking Sudfeld.

 

[Mack Herron]

Not sure how Ryan gets lumped in with the others that you list here. Logan Ryan had an excellent rookie season. Only Richard Sherman allowed a lower passer rating on targets attempted in his direction, and he had gained Belichick's trust enough by the end of the season to be battling Dennard for starter status. His 5 interceptions are nice as well, although certainly some of them were fortuitous, as are nearly all interceptions.

The data roundly suggests he was good, so to dismiss that (which I'm sure you will) would rely simply on the eye test. My eye test liked him as much as rookie Dennard, if not more, and the only rookie corners who I have liked more than Ryan in the past ten years on the Pats have been Samuel and McCourty.

I would be disappointed to see the team bring in no other corners if Talib leaves in free agency, but I also expect Ryan to be a very good player for the team next season. I really don't see how liking Ryan, who showed up and played well on the field in real games that count, is akin to liking Sudfeld.

I liked Ryan as well. But not as much as I liked McCourty his rookie year. And, if memory serves, McCourty played a lot more than Ryan. McCourty was not a better CB in his second season, however; he was worse. However much we might have liked Ryan his rookie season, his projected trajectory has enormous uncertainty. Next year he could be better, the same, or worse.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I liked Ryan as well. But not as much as I liked McCourty his rookie year. And, if memory serves, McCourty played a lot more than Ryan. McCourty was not a better CB in his second season, however; he was worse. However much we might have liked Ryan his rookie season, his projected trajectory has enormous uncertainty. Next year he could be better, the same, or worse.

McCourty did play more, and he did struggle his second season. He was playing very well his 3rd season when he was moved to safety full-time half way through the year. I wonder how much of his second year struggles had to do with the brutal safety play behind him. Chung, Ihedigbo, Sergio Brown, bad play back there. Ryan should benefit from having better safety play simply with McCourty back there, and hopefully they'll shore up the other spot as well.