Current status of all BB-era draft picks

[Deus Irae]

What doesn't make much sense is producing that list of players in an attempt to argue against the fact that they have drafted poorly. Regardless of where they were drafted those were bad picks (except TBC) . Also, just because you keep repeating that the Pats are a top 5 drafting team, it doesn't make it true or give it any real meaning.

The problem is that you don't seem to be able to grasp the notion of draft rounds and how that impacts draft success. Here, start with the beginning of this article:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/10159081

I did a 10-year study on the draft to judge the success rate of players selected in each round. I defined a successful player as one who is starting four years after being drafted. Four years gives him a chance to prove himself, and if you are not starting after four years you will probably be replaced on the roster. The results were as follows:

Round 1 -- 75 percent
Round 2 -- 50 percent
Round 3 -- 30 percent
Round 4 -- 25 percent
Round 5 -- 20 percent
Round 6 -- 9 percent
Round 7 -- 9 percent

Average -- 31 percent

Now, note that the Patriots draft at the bottom of the rounds most of the time, and note that they are drafting players that have to compete with players on the best team in the NFL for that starting job (In other words, and just as a hypothetical example rather than an assertion, Mike Wright might be a starter elsewhere, but he's a backup in New England.

From there, read the following thread beginning with post #55 for a varied discussion on the data:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/228493-forbes-drafting-success-paradox-ponder-page2.html#post1342206

 

[borg]

My worry on Pats draft proficiency is, not since the 2002 draft when Branch, Givens, and Graham were selected, have the Patriots developed on offensive threat that can put points on the board.

From 2003-2008

3 RBs....Cobbs, Maroney, Hairston
3 WRS...Johnson, Sam, Jackson (not counting Slater)
5 TEs...Nead, Watson, Stokes, Thomas, Mills

Sure, the Pats have spent a #2 on Dillon, #2 on Welker, #4 on Moss. But I argue that any team could trade for quality veterans at any time using future picks, if there was no cap to worry about. But there is and a 2nd rounder goes for a $1 mill/ year while Dillon had a $5 mill salary and Welker $2.7 mill. This cost for a 4th is $0.5 mill/ year while Moss made $5+ mill that year. Bsically we are talking about a double use of resources, pick plus cash, serious cash.

Conclusion: the Pats have failed miserably to develope playmakers on offense which has forced the organization to pay a double cost to fill the need. Yes, Welker and Moss have been outstanding, but the double cost has prevented them from using assets to bolster other areas (ILB, OLB)

 

[WelshPat]

DB Brandon Meriweather - Active, New England Patriots Leader of the secondary, appears to be becoming a pro bowl caliber safety

I laughed at this

Compared to the actual pro-bowl safties from Miami, Meriweather isn't even close. Hell, even the giants Kenny Phillips showed me more in the games he's played than Meriweather has. Most overrated patriot, without a doubt.

 

[mgteich]

You are certainly entitled to your opinion that Belichick has made a mistake in paying too much for his offensive stars acquired post-2002: Dillon, Moss and Welker. I certainly disagree. I also disagree tha Watson and Maroney ae failures, Finally, I disagree with the focus on RB's, WR's and TE's as "playmakers".

My worry on Pats draft proficiency is, not since the 2002 draft when Branch, Givens, and Graham were selected, have the Patriots developed on offensive threat that can put points on the board.

From 2003-2008

3 RBs....Cobbs, Maroney, Hairston
3 WRS...Johnson, Sam, Jackson (not counting Slater)
5 TEs...Nead, Watson, Stokes, Thomas, Mills

Sure, the Pats have spent a #2 on Dillon, #2 on Welker, #4 on Moss. But I argue that any team could trade for quality veterans at any time using future picks, if there was no cap to worry about. But there is and a 2nd rounder goes for a $1 mill/ year while Dillon had a $5 mill salary and Welker $2.7 mill. This cost for a 4th is $0.5 mill/ year while Moss made $5+ mill that year. Bsically we are talking about a double use of resources, pick plus cash, serious cash.

Conclusion: the Pats have failed miserably to develope playmakers on offense which has forced the organization to pay a double cost to fill the need. Yes, Welker and Moss have been outstanding, but the double cost has prevented them from using assets to bolster other areas (ILB, OLB)

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

The problem is that you don't seem to be able to grasp the notion of draft rounds and how that impacts draft success. Here, start with the beginning of this article:

Team-by-team analysis: Judging without grades - NFL - CBSSports.com Football



Now, note that the Patriots draft at the bottom of the rounds most of the time, and note that they are drafting players that have to compete with players on the best team in the NFL for that starting job (In other words, and just as a hypothetical example rather than an assertion, Mike Wright might be a starter elsewhere, but he's a backup in New England.

From there, read the following thread beginning with post #55 for a varied discussion on the data:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/228493-forbes-drafting-success-paradox-ponder-page2.html#post1342206

Now let me get this straight. Are you saying that the higher the round, the more likely draft pick will succeed? And you have a chart to back it up. Does anybody else knows about this? Thank you for sharing this new and exciting concept with us.

 

[Ring 6]

Myth that Patriots are good drafters: busted

Huh? That list is probably better than at least 25 NFL teams.

 

[Ring 6]

Would "better drafting" have prevented Colvin from suffering a career changing injury almost as soon as he got to New England? Would it have prevented Ted Johnson from having to retire due to concussions, or prevented Bruschi from suffering a stroke? Would "better drafting" have prevented AdT from suffering injury after injury since joining the Patriots? Would it have prevented Crable and McKenzie from suffering injuries the way they did? Would it have prevented Mayo from getting injured against the Bills?

No team is perfect in the draft, but the Patriots are one of the very best in the league. You people need get a grip.

Worse drafting would have resulted in 0 SB victories.
I'm Ok that we drafted well enough to win 3 of the last 8, and didnt draft well enough to win 5 of the last 8. That bar is high enough, IMO

 

[JackBauer]

DB Brandon Meriweather - Active, New England Patriots Leader of the secondary, appears to be becoming a pro bowl caliber safety

I laughed at this

Compared to the actual pro-bowl safties from Miami, Meriweather isn't even close. Hell, even the giants Kenny Phillips showed me more in the games he's played than Meriweather has. Most overrated patriot, without a doubt.

This is a load of hot garbage.

 

[Ring 6]

My worry on Pats draft proficiency is, not since the 2002 draft when Branch, Givens, and Graham were selected, have the Patriots developed on offensive threat that can put points on the board.

From 2003-2008

3 RBs....Cobbs, Maroney, Hairston
3 WRS...Johnson, Sam, Jackson (not counting Slater)
5 TEs...Nead, Watson, Stokes, Thomas, Mills

Sure, the Pats have spent a #2 on Dillon, #2 on Welker, #4 on Moss. But I argue that any team could trade for quality veterans at any time using future picks, if there was no cap to worry about. But there is and a 2nd rounder goes for a $1 mill/ year while Dillon had a $5 mill salary and Welker $2.7 mill. This cost for a 4th is $0.5 mill/ year while Moss made $5+ mill that year. Bsically we are talking about a double use of resources, pick plus cash, serious cash.

Conclusion: the Pats have failed miserably to develope playmakers on offense which has forced the organization to pay a double cost to fill the need. Yes, Welker and Moss have been outstanding, but the double cost has prevented them from using assets to bolster other areas (ILB, OLB)

How are Moss and Welker a double cost? They used the draft pick for them. The cost is worth the production. It seems you would prefer a 2nd and 4th rounder that cost nothing but would produce nothing too?

 

[Disco Volante]

Would someone kindly provide a list of teams they feel have drafted better than the Patriots this decade and include picks.

You know, a sizable list of drafted players who, as a whole are superior to Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Jerod Mayo, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green and Stephen Gostkowski, as a whole.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

And if they had drafted a capable replacement player to step in... and either they didn't do their job or we still managed to lose, you'd just be pointing your finger at other draftees, etc. It's a revisionists argument that has no substance.

So Mr. Substance, how is it revisionist to wish they had put more of an emphasis on drafting LB's. The fact is they didn't draft a capable replacement player untill 2008 and as of today Eric Alexander and Rob Ninkovich are the next options at LB.

 

[Ring 6]

So Mr. Substance, how is it revisionist to wish they had put more of an emphasis on drafting LB's. The fact is they didn't draft a capable replacement player untill 2008 and as of today Eric Alexander and Rob Ninkovich are the next options at LB.

Read what you said. 'to wish they had' is revisionist by defintion.

The players they drafter resulted in the success they have had. To revise history changes that success.

 

[Kontradiction]

The Patriots have drafted just fine this decade. No team hits on every single player in every single round. Yet, most of the fans around here expect this from our Pats.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Read what you said. 'to wish they had' is revisionist by defintion.

The players they drafter resulted in the success they have had. To revise history changes that success.

Not really, I simply wish they would do a better job of drafting LB's.

re·vi·sion·ism (r-vzh-nzm)
n.
1. Advocacy of the revision of an accepted, usually long-standing view, theory, or doctrine, especially a revision of historical events and movements.

 

[Deus Irae]

What doesn't make much sense is producing that list of players in an attempt to argue against the fact that they have drafted poorly. Regardless of where they were drafted those were bad picks (except TBC) . Also, just because you keep repeating that the Pats are a top 5 drafting team, it doesn't make it true or give it any real meaning.

Now let me get this straight. Are you saying that the higher the round, the more likely draft pick will succeed? And you have a chart to back it up. Does anybody else knows about this? Thank you for sharing this new and exciting concept with us.

Hmmm........

T.J. Turner (round 7, 2001)
TBC (round 7, 2003)
Ryan Claridge (round 5, 2005)
Jeremy Mincey (round 6, 2006)
Oscar Lua (round 7, 2007)
Justin Rogers (round 6, 2007)

Turner/TBC/Lua/Rogers/Mincey...... rounds 6&7 (9%)
Claridge ..... round 5 (20%)

Actually, the Patriots' success rate seems just fine if you look at Casserly's numbers.

 

[Ring 6]

Not really, I simply wish they would do a better job of drafting LB's.

re·vi·sion·ism (r-vzh-nzm)
n.
1. Advocacy of the revision of an accepted, usually long-standing view, theory, or doctrine, especially a revision of historical events and movements.

"I wish they had" = revision of historical events.
Iron clad.

 

[DaBruinz]

yes he is the teams #1 running back because it makes your argument work, i like your style

He's been the teams #1 running back for the last 3 years. It's fact. Just because you don't like it doesn't mean its not.

 

[DaBruinz]

And they thought so highly of him that they drafted Dave Stachelski, Jeff Marriott and Antwan Harris before him.

A few things. First and foremost, Pioli was not part of the 2000 draft and BB was using the information that Booby Grier had provided. Second, **** Rehbein worked out Brady and Rattay. And Rehbein said Brady was something special and forced the issue..

Had BB had a full year to work with his scouts, I can guarantee you that the likes of Stachelski, Marriot and Harris wouldn't have been drafted ahead of Brady.

 

[DaBruinz]

No, but they would have had a capable replacement ready to step in and produce which is exactly the point.

How do you know they'd have a better replacement ready to step in? You don't know that. That is your 20/20 hindsight talking out your rear end.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Hmmm........



Turner/TBC/Lua/Rogers/Mincey...... rounds 6&7 (9%)
Claridge ..... round 5 (20%)

Actually, the Patriots' success rate seems just fine if you look at Casserly's numbers.

Having those picks plus Mayo as the only LB's drafted is what I have issue with. Obviously thrilled with Mayo. If you want to look at an eight year history of drafting LB's look at the teams picks from 92-99. Note that three of the players strongly contributed to 3 championship teams. Others made less significant contributions but contributions nonetheless. Merkerson is the only out and out bust. Sabb and Crawford may or may not would have been good enough to play on the current teams, no way of knowing (and I don't want to be accused of revisionist history) so can only go by the fact that they did play for several seasons. Slade , Collins and Moore were solid for a number of years. Bruschi, Willie Mac and TJ speak for themselves. Katzenmoyer got hurt but had a very good rookie year. I happen to like this list better than yours.

1992
2. Todd Collins
5. Dwayne Sabb (5 years 74 games)

1993
2. Chris Slade

1994
1. Willie Mcginest
7. Marty Moore

1995
2. Ted Johnson

1996
3. Tedy Bruschi

1997
5. Vernon Crawford (41 Games)

1998
5. Ron Merkerson

1999
1. Andy Katzenmoyer