As far as difficult to have a conversation with, it is really hard to find a Patriots fan who has watched an entire Falcons game all year. If you watched the Monday night game in week 3 vs. New Orleans and the play off game against the Seahawks, that will give you a pretty good feel for how the defense has improve throughout the year.
I have watched most of your games, I missed maybe 3 or so. I have 6 TV's in my bar area, mancave if you will, not a fan of that term. Your defense improved in some ways, mostly not giving up the huge plays over the top. But the tackling is still not good and most chunk plays are now coming on intermediate crossing routes and the secondary misses a tackle that leads to a big gain.
If you have never watched a game, there is no reason anyone should be impressed with Atlanta's defense based on a stats sheet. If you do watch the games, you see a lot of speed and violence. The defense passes the eye test. The Falcons defense isn't about shutting you down. It is about making a couple of big plays that create a turnover or force a punt. They tied for the league lead in defensive touchdowns. Vic Beasley and Keanu Neal had 11 forced fumbles between them.
Yes fast is what jumps off the screen when you watch the film. Especially the all 22. They close very quickly. The violence I see mostly up front with your Dline coming off the ball and trying to penetrate. However in the secondary I see a lot of defenders bouncing off the receivers, not wrapping up. I also see a tendency for your secondary to hesitate to gang tackle. Something that surprises me considering Seattle gang tackles as well as anyone.
I don't discount the TD returns but they speak for themselves. You are describing the Patriots 2011 defense to a T. Bad defensive stats, relied heavily on TO's to stop offenses etc... We also used the garbage time yardage etc...to account for the poor yardage. However that defense forced more turnovers than the 2016 Falcons D and the 11 Pats were much better in the red zone 56% vs 73% of the 2016 Falcons. Also the 2011 defense allowed 20.7 PPG vs 25.4 and yet they couldn't make a stop when we needed it in the Super Bowl.
Well as long as neither of them combined with Cyrus Jones returning Punts doesn't happen then I feel good about fumbles. On a serious note Lewis has put the ball on the ground a couple times since returning. But the rest of the crew are pretty good about holding on to the ball, as are your Falcons.
Bottom line, NEs defense is much more efficient. Atlanta's defense is much more likely to force a mistake and cash it in for 6 points. Atlanta's defense plays with house money due to the efficiency of the offense.
I don't see that as being the case NE has forced 23 turnovers (regular season) and Atlanta 22. And here is my entire issue with the Falcon fan base in general, and where I feel they are not seeing the forest through the trees. Your offense is not significantly more efficient than ours, that it offsets the differences in the defenses.
I also see that the argument on the Falcons forum and the media in general, is that NE's defense hasn't played any great offenses. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but our points allowed to offenses vs what their season average was vs other teams is impressive. So lets use that argument in reverse. Atlanta's offense hasn't played nearly the amount of good defenses that NE has.
NE's has played 6 games vs top 10 defenses and 8 other games vs top 11-19 defenses. So 14 out of 18 games have been against top 19 defenses. On the other hand Atlanta has played 4 games vs top 10 defenses and 4 games vs top 11-19 defenses. So 8 out of 18 games have been against top 19 defenses.
Now against the top 10 defenses the teams scored the following:
Atlanta 4 game average was 28.3 PPG (for the record this includes the playoff game vs seattle, and I don't consider them a top 10 defense at that point. But to be fair its included) those defenses combined average vs other opponents not including Atlanta's points, was 18.4 PPG. Atlanta +9.9 PPG.
NE 6 game average 28, those defenses combined average vs other opponents not including the NE points, was 18.9 PPG. NE +9.1 PPG.
Against 11-19 defenses the teams scored the following:
NE 27.3 PPG, defense averaged vs other opponents 22.3 . NE+5
four of those 8 games vs 11 -19 ranked defenses were played without Brady. If you remove those four games it changes to 37.3 PPG / 22 PPG NE +15.3
Atlanta 30 PPG, defense averaged vs other opponents 21.4. Atlanta +8.6
To me, you can boil it down to point differential if you are not going to watch any tape. That stat pretty much touches on everything. Offense, defense, turnovers, missed tackles...it is all in there. The Patriots are about 3.5 better than the Falcons. They are favored by 3. I'd say that is a pretty good indication of where these teams are at. If everything averages out, the Patriots are a field goal better. If Atlanta can make one more 3rd down stop than average, its anyone's ball game.
Point differential is a good one, I also gamble and typically look at the last four games. If you look at the last four games NE is averaging 36.5 PPG scored and 12.5 PPG allowed. Atlanta is averaging 37.3 PPG scored and 22.3 PPG allowed. That is a huge point differential Atlanta +62 and NE +96, 34 points in NE's favor.
NE played the 10th, 17th, 28th and 30th ranked scoring offenses. Atlanta played the 2nd, 4th, 15th and 18th so all things are not created equal at first glance.
However NE played the 10th, 11th, 18th and 28th ranked scoring defenses. Atlanta played the 3rd, 21st, 26th and 31st ranked scoring defenses.
on Defense Atlanta opponents averaged 25.4 PPG they held them to 22.3 PPG for a
-3.1.
on Defense NE opponents averaged 20.6 PPG they held them to 12.5 PPG for a
-8.1.
on Offense Atlanta opponents on average allowed 24 PPG they scored 37.3 PPG for a
+13.3 .
on Offense NE opponents on average allowed 22.3 PPG they scored 36.5 PPG for a
+14.2.
I've watched NE enough to have total respect for their team. Win or lose, you guys will respect the Falcons more after you see the game than you do now.
I agree and feel the same way. I simply don't buy into the belief that the Atlanta offense is significantly better than NE's. Not that you are stating your point in this manner, but many are. And many are dismissing NE's defense as not playing anyone and bringing up SoS primarily about the offensive opponents. But no one seems to point out the significant difference in the Patriots SoS of defensive opponents.
Atlanta's offense has slightly out played NE's against much easier competition. While NE's defense has significantly outplayed Atlanta's defense against much easier competition.
Calling all things a wash, I see NE slowing down Atlanta and holding them to their top 10 defensive differential of +9.9 giving Atlanta 24.5. I don't see Atlanta stopping NE which is what they would have to do IMO, but slowing them down a bit as well, with NE middling what they do to 11-19 ranked defenses with and without Brady which is +10.2 giving NE 35.6.
So a rounded up score prediction of NE 36 - 25.
A quick note worth mentioning now that I have gone through the numbers. I also have a spread calculator that I use for gambling, it is based on the last four games played and mostly based on yards per point both for O and D and how they would fair against each other. Over a 4 year period it is just shy of 62% ATS. It predicts NE 32 Atlanta 25.1.
I hope this sheds some light on things for both sides and both can take away what they will/want etc.. but this was time consuming enough so I'm done with number crunching for now.
