Content Post Words on things I watched, read & heard II

[DaBruinz]

And despite all your protests you've failed to disprove the facts I've discussed that are logically based on maximizing draft value:

1. QB is the most premium and valuable position in the NFL draft.

2. Guard along with RB are NOT premium positions in the draft, therefore it is illogical to waste premium 1st round picks on them unless there are simply no other 1st round worthy picks left at your selection. "Guard, center, and right tackle are the three spots where I’m not sure any case could or should be made to take in the first round unless there is simply nobody else available." - Jason Fitzgerald OTC

3. One can draft nonpremium positions with nonpremium picks and still find good talent in the NFL draft. See Onwenu, Michael.

4. Salary cap increases aside, since a ballooning cap will cause all position salaries to increase over time, the more interesting data point from the article shows that WR has become a premium position in the NFL draft in terms of economic impact to a team's success. The WR position has historically been a weakness in the Patriots drafting process, so the success of Tyquan Thornton as a highly selected 2nd round pick becomes critical to the success of the 2022 draft considering BB already wasted a premium pick on a nonpremium position.

PS these are the credentials of the author of the article quoted above.

Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.

I didn't fail to disprove anything. You continue to show your inability to do anything but regurgitate BS.
I know Jason's credentials better than you. Followed OTC since day 1. I also read the article that you butchered and clearly didn't understand. What you fail to understand and what Jason can not accurately factor in to his work is how teams view players. Based on "Opportunity Cost" N'Keal Harry was a home run. Everybody and their brother applauded the Pats pick. Some even said they got a steal. Based on REALITY, he was a failure.

One can draft premium positions with non-premium picks and still find good talent. See, Brady, Tom. See Light, Matt. See Brown Jr, Orlando. See I could go on and on showing this to be as factual as your statement.

It's not a "Wasted pick" with the flexibility that he gives them on the O-line. You also don't take into consideration that they could be planning on on moving Strange to LT. He's the same Height/Weight as Matt Light but with better all-around athleticism. You also ignore the OTHER picks they got by moving back. Which MUST factor in to the opportunity cost. Something you've completely ignored.

Since when is pick 50 a "highly selected 2nd round pick"? Hmm?? It's a Mid 2nd round pick. OH.. You're hyping it because they traded up 4 spots. Got it.

 

[patfanken]

VERY interesting discussion over the last 2 pages. Thank you DB and VJC. Its so good to see such a spirited discussion with each side mostly using fact and going the extra yard to keep the discussion rational and not emotional (though it is JUST beginning to get a little personal, so stop it. )

Let me make my contribution to the discussion. Lets talk about the definition of the term "Premium Picks". It has been used quite a bit but never defined. In EVERY draft discussion I have read over the last 20 odd years there are AT BEST 10 players who can be considered "Premium", and usually its less. Guys who clearly are so gifted they SHOULD end up not just starters, but regular all prose. Then the next 40 odd players get grouped into the next in line. These are the guys you expect to be long term starters eventually. And so on and So on. The Pats haven't really had a "premium" pick in almost over a decade going back to Jerad Mayo. at #10. He was a great pick no doubt, but not an a "team changing. way" So in the ENTIRETY of the Bellichick era, the Pats have gotten just ONE shot at a premium player, which of course was UNIVERSALLY derided, and hit it out of the park

So when I hear Harry lumped into a group that believes all first rounders are equal, my hackles kind of raise up. Missing in the first 8 players can really set your team back. Missing in the 20's and 30's where the Pats usually draft hurts but there are going to be a LOT more misses in that area and THAT needs to be part of any discussion about draft results.

To my mind, with the exception of QB. Good teams, teams that are competitive EVERY year are built from the O/D lines out. The Pats have the potential to be VERY strong in the middle of their O/D lines for a long time to come (though in the NFL these days 3 years is a long time). TV and demographic experts will try and sell you on the so called "skilled players" strategy, especially on offense. Personally I would ways want to draft the great DLman over a great WR. First finding one is a LOT harder, while you can find WRs who end up being good all thru the draft, and in the case of Myers, even after the draft.

BUT that is just MY opinion. If there was just ONE way to build a roster EVERYONE will do it that way. Teams have had various degrees of success, but if you look a the seemingly failures of BOTH of last year's Superbowl teams less than a year from great success, you have to wonder about their team building strategies. BB has proven he IS the master of building on the fly and he's done it by doing it different ways.

....AND I have caught myself starting to ramble. Again great discussion, I wish there were more of them.

 

[upstater1]

VERY interesting discussion over the last 2 pages. Thank you DB and VJC. Its so good to see such a spirited discussion with each side mostly using fact and going the extra yard to keep the discussion rational and not emotional (though it is JUST beginning to get a little personal, so stop it. )

Let me make my contribution to the discussion. Lets talk about the definition of the term "Premium Picks". It has been used quite a bit but never defined. In EVERY draft discussion I have read over the last 20 odd years there are AT BEST 10 players who can be considered "Premium", and usually its less. Guys who clearly are so gifted they SHOULD end up not just starters, but regular all prose. Then the next 40 odd players get grouped into the next in line. These are the guys you expect to be long term starters eventually. And so on and So on. The Pats haven't really had a "premium" pick in almost over a decade going back to Jerad Mayo. at #10. He was a great pick no doubt, but not an a "team changing. way" So in the ENTIRETY of the Bellichick era, the Pats have gotten just ONE shot at a premium player, which of course was UNIVERSALLY derided, and hit it out of the park

So when I hear Harry lumped into a group that believes all first rounders are equal, my hackles kind of raise up. Missing in the first 8 players can really set your team back. Missing in the 20's and 30's where the Pats usually draft hurts but there are going to be a LOT more misses in that area and THAT needs to be part of any discussion about draft results.

To my mind, with the exception of QB. Good teams, teams that are competitive EVERY year are built from the O/D lines out. The Pats have the potential to be VERY strong in the middle of their O/D lines for a long time to come (though in the NFL these days 3 years is a long time). TV and demographic experts will try and sell you on the so called "skilled players" strategy, especially on offense. Personally I would ways want to draft the great DLman over a great WR. First finding one is a LOT harder, while you can find WRs who end up being good all thru the draft, and in the case of Myers, even after the draft.

BUT that is just MY opinion. If there was just ONE way to build a roster EVERYONE will do it that way. Teams have had various degrees of success, but if you look a the seemingly failures of BOTH of last year's Superbowl teams less than a year from great success, you have to wonder about their team building strategies. BB has proven he IS the master of building on the fly and he's done it by doing it different ways.

....AND I have caught myself starting to ramble. Again great discussion, I wish there were more of them.

I wholeheartedly agree with this, but I'd go a step further and say that the Patriots have done really well regardless in the 1st round, especially when they're not selecting injured players who have to sit out the year (Easley is still the biggest bust of the era, bigger than N'Keal):


Richard Seymour
Daniel Graham
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Ben Watson
Logan Mankins
Laurence Maroney
Brandon Meriweather
Jerod Mayo
Devin McCourty
Nate Solder
Chandler Jones
Donte Hightower
Dominique Easley
Malcolm Brown
Sony Michel
Isaiah Wynn
Nkeal Harry

You can see a dropoff in drafting in the 1st round from Easley until Harry. But up until then, the 1st round drafting was stellar. Look t those Pro Bowlers and All-Pros. I'd put that up against any teams 1st round. Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Watson, Mankins, Mayo, McCourty, Chandler Jones, Hightower. An unreal run of success in the 1st round.

Compare to the Buffalo Bills over that period: Erik Flowers (b=bust), Nate Clements (g=very good), Mike Williams (b), Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch (g), Lee Evans (g), JP Losman (b), Donte Whitner (b), John McCargo (b), Leodis McKelvin (b), Aaron Maybin (b), Eric Wood (g), Cj Spiller, EJ Manuel (b), Sammy Watkins (2 #1 picks, bust).

This is just a hideous 1st round record.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

(Easley is still the biggest bust of the era, bigger than N'Keal):

I wholeheartedly agree.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

What I love about being a NE fan is that the first ep of "Cheers" featured a character named Coach doing exactly what we do on here. And bonus, it's titled "Give me a ring sometime."



So anyway about the caponomics, I'm reading with interest both sides of the foodfight - "what you don't understand is that a draft pick is a resource with a value, no what you don't understand is that the draft is a crap shoot..."

Both are true. The value is a conditional value, not like a piece of machinery left idle that would otherwise produce goods fairly reliably with a fairly reliable market value.

So a draft pick you think is mis-used is less like an idle piece of machinery or a foolishly squandered bit of currency that can buy the product you want, and more like a rare raffle ticket. The higher the pick, the more likely it is to behave like currency -- i.e., you pay with the pick, you receive the goods. Hitting on the QB is the single highest-value payoff.

So it seems like both ideas are partially correct. We took our best shot (as a committee, it should be noted -- this was a pick BB signed off on. as will be all our highest picks at least.) But it was our highest pick for years, it was a QB-rich draft, and as the preferences of teams ahead of us would have it, we probably got an excellent fit for the team, in theory. We're still finding out how we did.

The crapshoot point is the only reason this outcome is in any doubt. There just aren't guarantees. You can take your E ticket, get on the ride, and find out in 2 or 3 years that it was the teacups, not space mountain.

I honestly think we do still have a good shot at the payoff in Mac Jones, and by the way, the (fourth round) rookie's no slouch either. A fun development project and extra confidence at the backup position (but please, fans at Gillette, when Mac's in, shut it with the chanting.)

Good post and like you said @DaBruinz and @VJCPatriot make decent points.

The draft is a "crapshoot" except most people aren't using the true definition when using that term. It's an unpredictable outcome, which obviously implies risk but I feel like those that use the term are think "blindfolded throwing darts" rather than a simple risk. I'm not talking about or for you @DaBruinz since you brought it up I just hear it a lot from those that throw it around.

It's a risk but a lot more of an educated and calculated risk than most would lead you to believe when using that argument. Very much a risk but in a lot of cases we're keeping tabs on these kids from 15-16 years old. Their background and upbringing. Watching social media. Know how fast they run and w/e injuries they've suffered. Talk to other teammates, coaches or people around the program or other contacts you might know. We have live game speed and acceleration. A22. And on and on. It's just a different game but yes, still I risk as I find out every year. With guys like Tillary and many others.

And I agree with both posters on different points. I'll gladly take a G or C in the 1st but I have to feel like they're game changing talent up front that'll make my life a lot easier and more flexible when it comes to protecting my QB, leadership qualities, versatility in the run game and durability. You should be a special player when you're picking first from that group. Might sound unfair but you're passing on premium positions, selecting out of the top tier and seemingly telling everyone this our guy for the next half decade.

That said it might not be a particularly rich draft at those positions you typically might target and know you'll have more cracks at guys like Jack and Marcus Jones. TT and Zappe. I'm not going into a draft saying "I'm not doing this or I'm not doing that" I'm keeping all options open save the RB position. Which I'm just all set on. Save Caff or Barkley falling or a true blue chip runner. I'm all set. I think Hall was right on the cusp of that this year (Guys who can create on their own, excel and are top tier in a certain system, can catch etc) but that position is just different imo. More athletic guys around 5'10/210 than 6'3-6'4/300+. And the track record speaks for itself, every year.

Then you might have a team that's in win-now mode. Maybe even won a chip and you're looking for "cherries" on top your sundae.

So again you have to stay open minded but have a clear value on prospects. In the Strange case I'm guessing he was near the top of our board regardless of position.

@patfanken
I average about 8-13 1st RD grades a year. Maybe 1 or 2 "elite/HOF" grades, maybe. Then yea there's about 50 really good prospects separated by very little over the next two rounds.

Imo It's nice to have a bunch of late round picks but give me all the top 100 picks I can get and I'll get my 6 and 7th RD guys in the udfa pool since there's little or no difference between the two.

I've always been pro "trade up" even though I like trading "back" for more shots. I think both make sense though and again personally have always been team trade up. Now I have some #'s that back that up. Only 31% of 1st RD prospects sign a second contract with the same team. And barely 20% of drafted prospects sign with the same team.

This is a decent way to look at how someone is doing drafting.


If I'm using a 1st RD pick I'm using it on a play maker, trying to use my 1st, 2nd & 3rd to move up to get a Parsons or even QB considering the rarity and value.
If it's not a top heavy draft I have no problem trading back. It's a sound option but I think trading up needs to be considered more with the #'s above.
If not trade it for an established vet that's proven he can do it. This is an option that'll only get more popular imo. The NFL is a treadmill going 100 mph. You have to hit the ground running. It's so tough to develop in general, certain positions. So much easier when you know what you're getting and we all know Bill loves to know what he's getting.

You want to have a clear value appreciation for a good 50-100 prospects with specific intentions for your team. That said you want to know the market and what other teams are thinking for trades and more. So it's nice to have a good idea on what others are thinking. Pats have usually been really good at gaging when there's going to be a run on prospects. They seem to always have a good feel.

The value on a draft pick and how you want to use it is always changing to a small extent with money, position waves year to year, what you personally value etc etc but the draft is still a great way to cheat the system on cheap contracts. A top 10 QB on a rookie deal is probably the biggest cheat code there is but it's still very hard to win in this league.

Now I'm rambling. Ok wrapping up watching Washington/Oregon before hopefully a good UFC card.

*edit* what a game. Future players everywhere. Love Pennix and Oregon has a top 50 C.

 

[patfanken]

Good post and like you said @DaBruinz and @VJCPatriot make decent points.

The draft is a "crapshoot" except most people aren't using the true definition when using that term. It's an unpredictable outcome, which obviously implies risk but I feel like those that use the term are think "blindfolded throwing darts" rather than a simple risk. I'm not talking about or for you @DaBruinz since you brought it up I just hear it a lot from those that throw it around.

It's a risk but a lot more of an educated and calculated risk than most would lead you to believe when using that argument. Very much a risk but in a lot of cases we're keeping tabs on these kids from 15-16 years old. Their background and upbringing. Watching social media. Know how fast they run and w/e injuries they've suffered. Talk to other teammates, coaches or people around the program or other contacts you might know. We have live game speed and acceleration. A22. And on and on. It's just a different game but yes, still I risk as I find out every year. With guys like Tillary and many others.

And I agree with both posters on different points. I'll gladly take a G or C in the 1st but I have to feel like they're game changing talent up front that'll make my life a lot easier and more flexible when it comes to protecting my QB, leadership qualities, versatility in the run game and durability. You should be a special player when you're picking first from that group. Might sound unfair but you're passing on premium positions, selecting out of the top tier and seemingly telling everyone this our guy for the next half decade.

That said it might not be a particularly rich draft at those positions you typically might target and know you'll have more cracks at guys like Jack and Marcus Jones. TT and Zappe. I'm not going into a draft saying "I'm not doing this or I'm not doing that" I'm keeping all options open save the RB position. Which I'm just all set on. Save Caff or Barkley falling or a true blue chip runner. I'm all set. I think Hall was right on the cusp of that this year (Guys who can create on their own, excel and are top tier in a certain system, can catch etc) but that position is just different imo. More athletic guys around 5'10/210 than 6'3-6'4/300+. And the track record speaks for itself, every year.

Then you might have a team that's in win-now mode. Maybe even won a chip and you're looking for "cherries" on top your sundae.

So again you have to stay open minded but have a clear value on prospects. In the Strange case I'm guessing he was near the top of our board regardless of position.

@patfanken
I average about 8-13 1st RD grades a year. Maybe 1 or 2 "elite/HOF" grades, maybe. Then yea there's about 50 really good prospects separated by very little over the next two rounds.

Imo It's nice to have a bunch of late round picks but give me all the top 100 picks I can get and I'll get my 6 and 7th RD guys in the udfa pool since there's little or no difference between the two.

I've always been pro "trade up" even though I like trading "back" for more shots. I think both make sense though and again personally have always been team trade up. Now I have some #'s that back that up. Only 31% of 1st RD prospects sign a second contract with the same team. And barely 20% of drafted prospects sign with the same team.

This is a decent way to look at how someone is doing drafting.
View attachment 47241

If I'm using a 1st RD pick I'm using it on a play maker, trying to use my 1st, 2nd & 3rd to move up to get a Parsons or even QB considering the rarity and value.
If it's not a top heavy draft I have no problem trading back. It's a sound option but I think trading up needs to be considered more with the #'s above.
If not trade it for an established vet that's proven he can do it. This is an option that'll only get more popular imo. The NFL is a treadmill going 100 mph. You have to hit the ground running. It's so tough to develop in general, certain positions. So much easier when you know what you're getting and we all know Bill loves to know what he's getting.

You want to have a clear value appreciation for a good 50-100 prospects with specific intentions for your team. That said you want to know the market and what other teams are thinking for trades and more. So it's nice to have a good idea on what others are thinking. Pats have usually been really good at gaging when there's going to be a run on prospects. They seem to always have a good feel.

The value on a draft pick and how you want to use it is always changing to a small extent with money, position waves year to year, what you personally value etc etc but the draft is still a great way to cheat the system on cheap contracts. A top 10 QB on a rookie deal is probably the biggest cheat code there is but it's still very hard to win in this league.

Now I'm rambling. Ok wrapping up watching Washington/Oregon before hopefully a good UFC card.

*edit* what a game. Future players everywhere. Love Pennix and Oregon has a top 50 C.

Interesting stuff. For most of our 20 year run, I've been a quality over quantity guy, but for these past 2 years (rebuilding) I want as many picks as I can get. The Pats have had just 4 picks in the last 22 years outside the bottom 12 (Seymour #5, Mayo #10 Jones #15 and Solder#17) So when you are trading up from the 20's and 30's most of the time, moving UP even 10 spots doesn't make a lot of sense to me given that from about 11-50 you are picking from the same "gene pool". So I'm a BIG believer in stocking up on players from the 30-50 range.

Also moving up in the first round, even if its just a few spots can be VERY expensive. BTW- It would have been interesting to see what the Pats would have done if Parsons had been available at 15 that year. I would have picked him and gone after Davis in the 2nd round. But hindsight on drafts is NEVER productive. But think about this. Parsons as good as his is has played only 43% of his team's defensive snaps. LT, if you remember rarely took a play off. But on the other hand, given his position flexibility, he would have THRIVED here in this system.

 

[Toofy]

Interesting stuff. For most of our 20 year run, I've been a quality over quantity guy, but for these past 2 years (rebuilding) I want as many picks as I can get. The Pats have had just 4 picks in the last 22 years outside the bottom 12 (Seymour #5, Mayo #10 Jones #15 and Solder#17) So when you are trading up from the 20's and 30's most of the time, moving UP even 10 spots doesn't make a lot of sense to me given that from about 11-50 you are picking from the same "gene pool". So I'm a BIG believer in stocking up on players from the 30-50 range.

Also moving up in the first round, even if its just a few spots can be VERY expensive. BTW- It would have been interesting to see what the Pats would have done if Parsons had been available at 15 that year. I would have picked him and gone after Davis in the 2nd round. But hindsight on drafts is NEVER productive. But think about this. Parsons as good as his is has played only 43% of his team's defensive snaps. LT, if you remember rarely took a play off. But on the other hand, given his position flexibility, he would have THRIVED here in this system.

Agreed. I was thinking the same as well. Not too high on Mac but was happy when we drafted him. I feel mills can thrive in our setup. If only Houston trades him cheaply .

 

[Jovak]

It is said that guard is not a premium position, yet NFL teams do draft guards in the first round.

In 2022 three guards and a center were 1st round picks.

In 2021 the Jets traded up to 14 to draft a guard.

In 2019 Chris Lindstrom was the 14th pick.

Quentin Nelson was the 6th pick. Brandan Scherff was the 5th pick.

Chris Lindstrom, Germain Ifedi, Laken Tomlinson and many others were also first round picks.

​

​

​

​

 

[Uptown]

 

[DaBruinz]

Good post and like you said @DaBruinz and @VJCPatriot make decent points.

The draft is a "crapshoot" except most people aren't using the true definition when using that term. It's an unpredictable outcome, which obviously implies risk but I feel like those that use the term are think "blindfolded throwing darts" rather than a simple risk. I'm not talking about or for you @DaBruinz since you brought it up I just hear it a lot from those that throw it around.

When I say "crapshoot" I mean that there are plenty of examples over the years of players who weren't top 10 picks who far exceeded what 90% of the 1st round picks draft picks ever taken have accomplished. And you have the flip side, the 1st round picks that everyone swears the team got a bargain and is going to do amazing things only for that guy to be a bust.

These teams put an extreme amount of time and effort into picks. From the interviews, to film review, to working them out on the field, to having multiple scouts, personnel, and coaches watch film of a player. And you never know what is going to happen. N'Keal Harry is a perfect example. He had good route running in college. He didn't get separation, but regularly used his height/weight/size advantage to win battles and make tough catches. The Pats were LAUDED by numerous places for the pick. My hope was that he would be a better version of David Givens with a top end of a faster Anquan Boldin. He never panned out. He showed flashes, but he never seemed to put in the time needed to learn the play-book. That seemed to run counter to everything that we'd heard about him. So, what did the Pats miss? HOW did the Pats miss it? Was it another case of BB putting too much faith in McDaniels feel on a player? Or did Harry stop giving a sh*t because he'd signed the contract and knew he was gonna make some millions regardless?

Then you have Michael Onwenu. Slid to the 6th round. We had people on here calling him a blob and plenty of other derogatory things. From day 1, he didn't take things for granted. He came in. Passed his conditioning run on the first try. Was literally taking snaps at RT, RG, and LG in TC. Clearly got into the play-book and did what the Pats expected of him and more. He filled in at all 3 spots at different times in year 1. Last year, he had some growing pains at LG and RT with being relegated to the 6th O-line when Trent Brown finally got healthy. Now, this year, he's at his natural position of RG and he's one of the best in the league at it. FAR BETTER than being an after-thought or blob or waste of a pick like some said. Again. What did the Pats MISS that the Patriots felt it was too much of a risk taking higher than the 6th round?

It's a risk but a lot more of an educated and calculated risk than most would lead you to believe when using that argument. Very much a risk but in a lot of cases we're keeping tabs on these kids from 15-16 years old. Their background and upbringing. Watching social media. Know how fast they run and w/e injuries they've suffered. Talk to other teammates, coaches or people around the program or other contacts you might know. We have live game speed and acceleration. A22. And on and on. It's just a different game but yes, still I risk as I find out every year. With guys like Tillary and many others.

And I agree with both posters on different points. I'll gladly take a G or C in the 1st but I have to feel like they're game changing talent up front that'll make my life a lot easier and more flexible when it comes to protecting my QB, leadership qualities, versatility in the run game and durability. You should be a special player when you're picking first from that group. Might sound unfair but you're passing on premium positions, selecting out of the top tier and seemingly telling everyone this our guy for the next half decade.

The Patriots have had just 2 TOP 10 picks since 2000. In 2001 and 2008. In 2001, it was their pick in Seymour. And 2008 it was Mayo after trading back. But that pick was from San Fran via trade as their pick was stolen by the league because of the Jets Cheating scandal.

Guys at the bottom of the 1st round (most times outside the top 10-15) are going to teams that just made the play-offs. They aren't getting the "ELITE" players, typically. They're getting the guys who are consistent performers. Who show up every day, give the 110%. The guys who you are hoping will be leaders. Yes, you HOPE that it's a special player that has slid down to that point and that others missed it (ala Wilfork). You're hoping they will be a 4-8 year starter for you.

That said it might not be a particularly rich draft at those positions you typically might target and know you'll have more cracks at guys like Jack and Marcus Jones. TT and Zappe. I'm not going into a draft saying "I'm not doing this or I'm not doing that" I'm keeping all options open save the RB position. Which I'm just all set on. Save Caff or Barkley falling or a true blue chip runner. I'm all set. I think Hall was right on the cusp of that this year (Guys who can create on their own, excel and are top tier in a certain system, can catch etc) but that position is just different imo. More athletic guys around 5'10/210 than 6'3-6'4/300+. And the track record speaks for itself, every year.

Then you might have a team that's in win-now mode. Maybe even won a chip and you're looking for "cherries" on top your sundae.

So again you have to stay open minded but have a clear value on prospects. In the Strange case I'm guessing he was near the top of our board regardless of position.

I agree with what you have stated. When all is said and done, you always hope that you have crossed all the T's, dotted all the I's and get players who will come in and excel. That is every team's HOPE. The reality is that there are players (and entire drafts *cough * 2017*cough) that people are hood-winked by.

When it comes to determining where they are going to draft particular positions, we know the Pats shy away from taking LB (2), WR (1), DB (1), RB (2) in the 1st round. Belichick came to the Pats using the RB by committee mentality. We know that he has never put a HIGH value on RBs (2 in 18 picks over 23 years). It wasn't until MARONEY that he took a RB above the 3rf round. But we KNOW that it was Josh who pushed for Maroney (and Jackson). That BB siding with Josh led to a rift with Daboll and with the Scouts. We don't know if it was Josh who pushed for Michel or Michel was the consensus. As much as BB is a Defensive guy, we know that he doesn't view LB as worthy of a 1st round pick unless it's a special player (Mayo/Hightower).

Under BB, they've put a priority on D-Line (5 - 1st round picks, 2- 2nd round picks) followed by the O-line (4-1st round picks, 3-2nd round picks). Until Jones, it seemed that BB didn't put a grade higher than a 3rd round pick on QBs (Garoppolo). Jones showed he was willing to put a higher pick on one.

I think that Charlie Casserly's chart that shows how often picks from a particular round are successful is a good exercise. I think looking at what positions a team has been successful picking where is also a good exercise.

The biggest "problem" that I have with the whole "Opportunity Cost" Spiel is that people are using the Draft Mag Scouting reports (which we know are flawed) as their basis for determining this. It's already been show that the Draft mags had it wrong about where Teams had Strong pegged. There were 5 teams that had a low 1/high 2 Grade on Strange. Even if we take the Pats out of the equation, that means 4 teams had a low 1/high 2 on him. So, how is the Patriots trading down, ADDING additional picks, and taking him right where teams had him grade them "losing Opportunity Cost" over a player such as Devin Lloyd, whom the Pats clearly had rated lower than Strange. The Pats still could have had Lloyd rated as a low 1/High 2, but rated lower than Strange. That concept never seems to occur to people. Nor do they take into consideration that the Patriots have to REALLY value a LB to consider them.

The other thing that People also ignore is that they have no idea how someone like a Devin LLoyd would have done in the Pats Defense. I'm pretty sure you had reservations about him. I liked him initially, but backed off.

So, what is the "Opportunity Cost" of having Strange, Jack Jones, Bailey Zappe and a pick that should be before pick 70 in the 2023 draft? If someone can tell me THAT without there being anything but pure speculation, I'd love to hear it.

 

[DaBruinz]

WTH did he do? Sleep with the Murray's wife or something? DAMN....

 

[Sciz]

When I say "crapshoot" I mean that there are plenty of examples over the years of players who weren't top 10 picks who far exceeded what 90% of the 1st round picks draft picks ever taken have accomplished. And you have the flip side, the 1st round picks that everyone swears the team got a bargain and is going to do amazing things only for that guy to be a bust.

These teams put an extreme amount of time and effort into picks. From the interviews, to film review, to working them out on the field, to having multiple scouts, personnel, and coaches watch film of a player. And you never know what is going to happen. N'Keal Harry is a perfect example. He had good route running in college. He didn't get separation, but regularly used his height/weight/size advantage to win battles and make tough catches. The Pats were LAUDED by numerous places for the pick. My hope was that he would be a better version of David Givens with a top end of a faster Anquan Boldin. He never panned out. He showed flashes, but he never seemed to put in the time needed to learn the play-book. That seemed to run counter to everything that we'd heard about him. So, what did the Pats miss? HOW did the Pats miss it? Was it another case of BB putting too much faith in McDaniels feel on a player? Or did Harry stop giving a sh*t because he'd signed the contract and knew he was gonna make some millions regardless?

Then you have Michael Onwenu. Slid to the 6th round. We had people on here calling him a blob and plenty of other derogatory things. From day 1, he didn't take things for granted. He came in. Passed his conditioning run on the first try. Was literally taking snaps at RT, RG, and LG in TC. Clearly got into the play-book and did what the Pats expected of him and more. He filled in at all 3 spots at different times in year 1. Last year, he had some growing pains at LG and RT with being relegated to the 6th O-line when Trent Brown finally got healthy. Now, this year, he's at his natural position of RG and he's one of the best in the league at it. FAR BETTER than being an after-thought or blob or waste of a pick like some said. Again. What did the Pats MISS that the Patriots felt it was too much of a risk taking higher than the 6th round?




The Patriots have had just 2 TOP 10 picks since 2000. In 2001 and 2008. In 2001, it was their pick in Seymour. And 2008 it was Mayo after trading back. But that pick was from San Fran via trade as their pick was stolen by the league because of the Jets Cheating scandal.

Guys at the bottom of the 1st round (most times outside the top 10-15) are going to teams that just made the play-offs. They aren't getting the "ELITE" players, typically. They're getting the guys who are consistent performers. Who show up every day, give the 110%. The guys who you are hoping will be leaders. Yes, you HOPE that it's a special player that has slid down to that point and that others missed it (ala Wilfork). You're hoping they will be a 4-8 year starter for you.



I agree with what you have stated. When all is said and done, you always hope that you have crossed all the T's, dotted all the I's and get players who will come in and excel. That is every team's HOPE. The reality is that there are players (and entire drafts *cough * 2017*cough) that people are hood-winked by.

When it comes to determining where they are going to draft particular positions, we know the Pats shy away from taking LB (2), WR (1), DB (1), RB (2) in the 1st round. Belichick came to the Pats using the RB by committee mentality. We know that he has never put a HIGH value on RBs (2 in 18 picks over 23 years). It wasn't until MARONEY that he took a RB above the 3rf round. But we KNOW that it was Josh who pushed for Maroney (and Jackson). That BB siding with Josh led to a rift with Daboll and with the Scouts. We don't know if it was Josh who pushed for Michel or Michel was the consensus. As much as BB is a Defensive guy, we know that he doesn't view LB as worthy of a 1st round pick unless it's a special player (Mayo/Hightower).

Under BB, they've put a priority on D-Line (5 - 1st round picks, 2- 2nd round picks) followed by the O-line (4-1st round picks, 3-2nd round picks). Until Jones, it seemed that BB didn't put a grade higher than a 3rd round pick on QBs (Garoppolo). Jones showed he was willing to put a higher pick on one.

I think that Charlie Casserly's chart that shows how often picks from a particular round are successful is a good exercise. I think looking at what positions a team has been successful picking where is also a good exercise.

The biggest "problem" that I have with the whole "Opportunity Cost" Spiel is that people are using the Draft Mag Scouting reports (which we know are flawed) as their basis for determining this. It's already been show that the Draft mags had it wrong about where Teams had Strong pegged. There were 5 teams that had a low 1/high 2 Grade on Strange. Even if we take the Pats out of the equation, that means 4 teams had a low 1/high 2 on him. So, how is the Patriots trading down, ADDING additional picks, and taking him right where teams had him grade them "losing Opportunity Cost" over a player such as Devin Lloyd, whom the Pats clearly had rated lower than Strange. The Pats still could have had Lloyd rated as a low 1/High 2, but rated lower than Strange. That concept never seems to occur to people. Nor do they take into consideration that the Patriots have to REALLY value a LB to consider them.

The other thing that People also ignore is that they have no idea how someone like a Devin LLoyd would have done in the Pats Defense. I'm pretty sure you had reservations about him. I liked him initially, but backed off.

So, what is the "Opportunity Cost" of having Strange, Jack Jones, Bailey Zappe and a pick that should be before pick 70 in the 2023 draft? If someone can tell me THAT without there being anything but pure speculation, I'd love to hear it.

We’re going to have to find a new example after Lloyd’s decline in recent weeks. He got benched yesterday and sat for the whole fourth quarter.

 

[captain stone]

Unbelievable. Whew what a miss. It's always better when you miss with the NFL lol (both valuing him as a 1st) but still hurts.

One thing I can say about myself though is I don't dwell on losses save very few. I'm good at just not caring or having proper perspective when it comes to that. I don't spend a ton of time thinking about why I had someone there or beating myself up but Tillary is one of those guys you wonder about.

6'6 300 with 35 inch arms running 4.9. So disruptive in college but yea it be like that some times.
He could move people from A to B but used had a nice array of moves with good hands and that length.

I thought at the time that Tillery was somewhat over-drafted; I thought he was more of a late middle 2nd-rounder, closer to where Dremont Jones & BC's Zach Allen were taken than he was to where Jeff Simmons & Dexter Lawrence were... And I definitely did Not see him as a fit here based on what our 2-4/4-2 (or 2-3/4-1 Nickel) front should look like now... Dude's clearly a First Dynasty 3-4 DE.

 

[captain stone]

I'd rather have Benjamin than ANY of our RBs not named Stevenson & Damien Harris, Montgomery included.

 

[Uptown]

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I'd rather have Benjamin than ANY of our RBs not named Stevenson & Damien Harris, Montgomery included.

There you have it. The Captain and N Caserio think alike, two peas in a pod, rate players the same

 

[captain stone]

There you have it. The Captain and N Caserio think alike, two peas in a pod, rate players the same

More like in Little Nicky Caesar's case, even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

 

[Jim Beankie]

Not sure if this has been discussed anywhere:

Polumbus: ‘Russ is losing his mind out there— he’s using audibles from the Seahawks’

Oh boy. Russell Wilson is apparently calling audibles and using codewords from the Seattle Seahawks. Denver Broncos players don’t know them.

www.milehighreport.com

 

[captain stone]

Not sure if this has been discussed anywhere:

Polumbus: ‘Russ is losing his mind out there— he’s using audibles from the Seahawks’

Oh boy. Russell Wilson is apparently calling audibles and using codewords from the Seattle Seahawks. Denver Broncos players don’t know them.

www.milehighreport.com

I wonder if this is a result of playing hero-ball for so long that he's developed some pre-snap habits that are really hard to break...
"DK, go long! Tyler, go long!"

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Eagles add Suh to reinforce D-line after injuries

Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has reached agreement on a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles.

www.espn.com