Content Post Words on things I watched, read & heard II

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Clearly you have never played this game before and do not have a clue about what we are talking about when we talk about the strength that is needed to physically beat a man across the line of scrimmage from you. Freaking amateur! this is not an arm wrestling match. This is football!

Relax man. I'll never forget when you said there were only 5 WR's in the nation that could run option routes. Or Zach Wilson needed an outside zone running scheme to succeed. And a bunch of other wild stuff lol.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Unbelievable lol

Some teams are just terrible at drafting. At least the Raiders can't blame Al Davis anymore. RIP.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Relax man. I'll never forget when you said there were only 5 WR's in the nation that could run option routes. Or Zach Wilson needed an outside zone running scheme to succeed. And a bunch of other wild stuff lol.

Don't worry about it. Personal attacks are the hallmarks of a person who is insecure and doesn't discuss football using facts or logic. Other posters here like myself, value your contribution to this forum because your posts are based on your actual observations, factual evidence, and logical conclusions.

 

[DaBruinz]

That chart right THERE is why I just can't get behind the Cole Strange pick.

Our BEST performing offensive linemen:
Michael Onwenu, 6th round pick.

And yet you BLOW a 1st round pick on a guard when you can find very good ones much later in the draft. It makes no sense from an opportunity cost perspective.

And what has Cole Strange done? He's league average. Does that scream out wise use of draft resources? It doesn't to me.

Tell me you don't actually understand opportunity cost without telling me you don't understand opportunity cost. *sigh*

Strange started from day 1. Beating out numerous other players to play LG. The Pats had 6 other players in vying for that spot.

Next, you're comparing Onwenu (a 3rd year player with more than 30 games under his belt) to a rookie.
Furthermore, you're ignoring the position flexibility that Strange has. Not only did Strange play Guard in College, but he also played OT. He also lined up at center at the Senior Bowl where he impressed numerous coaches. It's WHY his stock rose. He is the same height/weight as Matt Light. The difference is that Strange has longer arms and is more athletic.

Onwenu is not the norm. He's the aberration. For every Onwenu, I'm sure there are numerous failures at the position. Hjalte Froholdt, Tre' Jackson, Jon Halapio, etc. Based on your statement, picking a QB anywhere but the 6th round makes no sense from an opportunity cost perspective because the Patriots drafted Brady there.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Onwenu is not the norm. He's the aberration. For every Onwenu, I'm sure there are numerous failures at the position. Hjalte Froholdt, Tre' Jackson, Jon Halapio, etc. Based on your statement, picking a QB anywhere but the 6th round makes no sense from an opportunity cost perspective because the Patriots drafted Brady there.

Now you're just creating a laughably obvious straw man. I've never said that you shouldn't draft a QB in the first round. Quite the opposite actually, a QB is the most premium position in the NFL. A team's success rides on their QB. So if anything that is the opportunity cost that I'm talking about.

A guard is NOT a premium position. Neither is RB. In general those positions should not be selected high in the draft because in terms of impact to a team's success, they pale in comparison to for example drafting an impact Quarterback, Pass Rusher, or franchise left tackle. Would you like any more lessons about 'opportunity cost'? I'll be happy to share.



Let's put it simply. A draft pick is a limited resource that is given to teams by the NFL to acquire new talent to grow or restock their pool of players whom they use to win football games.

When a team uses a 1st round pick, a premium resource, on player A, they are passing on player B. Therefore there is an opportunity cost LOST when you pick a far worse or far less premium player with a costly 1st round pick.

The further you go down in the draft, the more fungible, ie less valuable the cost of draft picks. Teams are far more open to trading away low round draft picks, because these represent less valuable resources. Therefore it makes more sense to draft less 'premium' positions using lower value picks, so as to maximize the value of your earlier draft picks.

If you take for example a non-premium guard in round 4. If he becomes a flop or a success the chances of making a bad opportunity cost selection is reduced because you used a less valuable resource. If however you expend a premium 1st round pick on a guard using your more valuable resource and he doesn't become an all-pro, you have risked MORE and your return is less based on the fact that you've drafted a non-premium position. Is this clear enough to understand? These are just basic economic principles that anyone can understand.

If you need further enlightenment I would refer you to this excellent article about the art of maximizing roster construction by properly valuing premium positions:

Maximizing Roster Construction by Valuing Positions in the NFL Draft | Over the Cap

Maximizing Roster Construction by Valuing Positions in the NFL Draft | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

This highly informative chart from that article tells us a lot about what we need to know.

 

[DaBruinz]

NFL free agents that are set to get paid next offseason

The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson will be shooting for dollar signs and zeroes this NFL offseason. See other NFL free agents that stand to make bank in 2023.

www.nbcsports.com

da'ron payne !!

WIth Godchaux and Barmore there, I think they aren't going to drop a ton of money on Payne. Especially since they gave Godchaux that long contract.

The Pats have some big names of theirs who are free agents:
Jonathan Jones, Devin McCourty (retire?), Jabril Peppers, Mack Wilson, Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris, Matthew Slater, Cody Davis, Isaiah Wynn.

I really want them to keep Peppers, Meyers, and Jon Jones. Slater might retire though he's still playing outstandingly. Who knows what Cody Davis will do with that nasty injury he suffered.

I expect Damien Harris to be signed by someone like Dallas as a compliment to Tony Pollard, but he could end up in someplace like Miami, Carolina, or the NY Giants.

I expect Wynn to end up in Atlanta in the 12-15M range.

There are not a lot of RTs available this coming off-season. You have Jack Conklin from Cleveland, Cam Erving from Carolina, and Mike McGlinchey from San Fan. McGlinchey is likely to get tagged, though San Fran is going to have to make some serious cuts/restructures to do it. . Conklin may or may not get the tag depending on how much money Cleveland can free up.

 

[DaBruinz]

Now you're just creating a laughably obvious straw man. I've never said that you shouldn't draft a QB in the first round. Quite the opposite actually, a QB is the most premium position in the NFL. A team's success rides on their QB. So if anything that is the opportunity cost that I'm talking about.

A guard is NOT a premium position. Neither is RB. In general those positions should not be selected high in the draft because in terms of impact to a team's success, they pale in comparison to for example drafting an impact Quarterback, Pass Rusher, or franchise left tackle. Would you like any more lessons about 'opportunity cost'? I'll be happy to share.

View attachment 47153

Let's put it simply. A draft pick is a limited resource that is given to teams by the NFL to acquire new talent to grow or restock their pool of players whom they use to win football games.

When a team uses a 1st round pick, a premium resource, on player A, they are passing on player B. Therefore there is an opportunity cost LOST when you pick a far worse or far less premium player with a costly 1st round pick.

The further you go down in the draft, the more fungible, ie less valuable the cost of draft picks. Teams are far more open to trading away low round draft picks, because these represent less valuable resources. Therefore it makes more sense to draft less 'premium' positions using lower value picks, so as to maximize the value of your earlier draft picks.

If you take for example a non-premium guard in round 4. If he becomes a flop or a success the chances of making a bad opportunity cost selection is reduced because you used a less valuable resource. If however you expend a premium 1st round pick on a guard using your more valuable resource and he doesn't become an all-pro, you have risked MORE and your return is less based on the fact that you've drafted a non-premium position. Is this clear enough to understand? These are just basic economic principles that anyone can understand.

If you need further enlightenment I would refer you to this excellent article about the art of maximizing roster construction by properly valuing premium positions:

Maximizing Roster Construction by Valuing Positions in the NFL Draft | Over the Cap

Maximizing Roster Construction by Valuing Positions in the NFL Draft | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

This highly informative chart from that article tells us a lot about what we need to know.

No straw man here. You choose to call it that because it deals a blow to your statements. Nothing you've said is remotely "enlightening". People far smarter than you, me and the guys at OTC have tried to "figure out" the draft and put "value" on positions to "predict" where to draft players. All those people have failed. Miserably. Because the draft is a crapshoot. There are always players who are over-rated. There are always players under-rated. There are always players who don't get drafted who should have been and vice-versa.

I did charts like the one at OTC 15 years ago based on where players were drafted and how they turned out. All it showed was that there are always outliers that you can't predict. Those outliers make charts like that erroneous at best.

What you and a chart like that can't account for is the different in the quality of players from year to year. A 4th round player last year could be as good or better than 2nd round players this year. We've seen this happen numerous times as well.


EDIT: BTW, you should probably re-read the last paragraph of my initial reply a few times. You clearly did not understand it.
EDIT #2: That chart is flawed in numerous ways. It doesn't take into consideration the increase of the salary cap year over year. So it increases the salaries year over year. There is no correlation of that chart to where plyers are actually drafted. For Instance, he makes a comment about RTs not being drafted in the 1st round, yet 2 of the highest paid RTs are 1st rounders. He doesn't make a distinction between LG and RG, yet, there is a significant difference if you compare a late 1st round LG to what the current RGs are making. And yes, several of the highest paid RGs are 1st rounders.

EDIT#3: All you've done is shown you bought into some's poor attempt at putting complex economics football without bothering to consider just how much of a crapshoot the draft is. It's clearly brought you some semblance of feeling special and the ability to think it gives you some insight over other people. Reality is that it's just another in a long line in the latest fads to try and explain the unexplainable.

 

[VJCPatriot]

No straw man here. You choose to call it that because it deals a blow to your statements. Nothing you've said is remotely "enlightening".

And despite all your protests you've failed to disprove the facts I've discussed that are logically based on maximizing draft value:

1. QB is the most premium and valuable position in the NFL draft.

2. Guard along with RB are NOT premium positions in the draft, therefore it is illogical to waste premium 1st round picks on them unless there are simply no other 1st round worthy picks left at your selection. "Guard, center, and right tackle are the three spots where I’m not sure any case could or should be made to take in the first round unless there is simply nobody else available." - Jason Fitzgerald OTC

3. One can draft nonpremium positions with nonpremium picks and still find good talent in the NFL draft. See Onwenu, Michael.

4. Salary cap increases aside, since a ballooning cap will cause all position salaries to increase over time, the more interesting data point from the article shows that WR has become a premium position in the NFL draft in terms of economic impact to a team's success. The WR position has historically been a weakness in the Patriots drafting process, so the success of Tyquan Thornton as a highly selected 2nd round pick becomes critical to the success of the 2022 draft considering BB already wasted a premium pick on a nonpremium position.

PS these are the credentials of the author of the article quoted above.

Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.

 

[Sciz]

Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.

He’s also the guy who made the pick value chart that says the 29th pick (used on Strange) is equivalent to about six 7th round picks, so I think pick value might be outside his area of expertise.

 

[Calhoun44]

2. Guard along with RB are NOT premium positions in the draft, therefore it is illogical to waste premium 1st round picks on them unless there are simply no other 1st round worthy picks left at your selection. "Guard, center, and right tackle are the three spots where I’m not sure any case could or should be made to take in the first round unless there is simply nobody else available." - Jason Fitzgerald OTC

Good topic, this is very interesting to me.

Here is my attempt to make a case for selecting one of these positions in the 1st round. There are probably flaws to it but let me know what you think.

1) If every team in the NFL except for the Patriots believes that those positions are not 1st round worthy, wouldn't that mean the Patriots would always get the best player at those positions if they choose one in the 1sr round?

2) If a player meets many of the "football player" characteristics that BB looks for wouldn't that particular player be worth the "reach" to make sure he isn't snatched up by another team that might stray from the "non-premium" rule?

I am one of those weirdos who puts way more value on the running game than most fans and wish more picks were spent on the O-Line. I really enjoy a game plan where we run the ball through the defense all game long and they can't do anything to stop it. I am definitely psyched they took Strange with that pick, but I feel like I'm open to the idea that this theory could be right and maybe another pick should have been made.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

What I love about being a NE fan is that the first ep of "Cheers" featured a character named Coach doing exactly what we do on here. And bonus, it's titled "Give me a ring sometime."



So anyway about the caponomics, I'm reading with interest both sides of the foodfight - "what you don't understand is that a draft pick is a resource with a value, no what you don't understand is that the draft is a crap shoot..."

Both are true. The value is a conditional value, not like a piece of machinery left idle that would otherwise produce goods fairly reliably with a fairly reliable market value.

So a draft pick you think is mis-used is less like an idle piece of machinery or a foolishly squandered bit of currency that can buy the product you want, and more like a rare raffle ticket. The higher the pick, the more likely it is to behave like currency -- i.e., you pay with the pick, you receive the goods. Hitting on the QB is the single highest-value payoff.

So it seems like both ideas are partially correct. We took our best shot (as a committee, it should be noted -- this was a pick BB signed off on. as will be all our highest picks at least.) But it was our highest pick for years, it was a QB-rich draft, and as the preferences of teams ahead of us would have it, we probably got an excellent fit for the team, in theory. We're still finding out how we did.

The crapshoot point is the only reason this outcome is in any doubt. There just aren't guarantees. You can take your E ticket, get on the ride, and find out in 2 or 3 years that it was the teacups, not space mountain.

I honestly think we do still have a good shot at the payoff in Mac Jones, and by the way, the (fourth round) rookie's no slouch either. A fun development project and extra confidence at the backup position (but please, fans at Gillette, when Mac's in, shut it with the chanting.)

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Good topic, this is very interesting to me.

Here is my attempt to make a case for selecting one of these positions in the 1st round. There are probably flaws to it but let me know what you think.

1) If every team in the NFL except for the Patriots believes that those positions are not 1st round worthy, wouldn't that mean the Patriots would always get the best player at those positions if they choose one in the 1sr round?

2) If a player meets many of the "football player" characteristics that BB looks for wouldn't that particular player be worth the "reach" to make sure he isn't snatched up by another team that might stray from the "non-premium" rule?

I am one of those weirdos who puts way more value on the running game than most fans and wish more picks were spent on the O-Line. I really enjoy a game plan where we run the ball through the defense all game long and they can't do anything to stop it. I am definitely psyched they took Strange with that pick, but I feel like I'm open to the idea that this theory could be right and maybe another pick should have been made.

And in the best Coach Ernie Pantousso tradition, I also agree with this.

 

[Gumby]

I think you two are actually closer than you think to agreement

…..,
Strange started from day 1. Beating out numerous other players to play LG. The Pats had 6 other players in vying for that spot.
….
Furthermore, you're ignoring the flexibility that Strange has. Not only did Strange play Guard in College, but he also played OT. He also lined up at center at the Senior Bowl where he impressed numerous coaches. It's WHY his stock rose. He is the same height/weight as Matt Light. The difference is that Strange has longer arms and is more athletic.
……

Bingo here: I thought from day 1 of the draft that Strange is the T Brown LT-in-training/heir-apparent. Brown has not always been the healthiest. I think in 2 nlt 3 years (counting this year as 1); strange is it.

And despite all your protests you've failed to disprove the facts I've discussed that are logically based on maximizing draft value:

1. ….. "Guard, center, and right tackle are the three spots where I’m not sure any case could or should be made to take in the first round unless there is simply nobody else available." - Jason Fitzgerald OTC

….
the 2022 draft considering BB already wasted a premium pick on a nonpremium position.
….

Ok, but by your chart OT /LT was #4 in weighted value. If you view Strange as a future LT then his value is there.

plus, that chart didnt necessarily account for the variations WITHIN a round. Picks 1-16 are worth a lot more than 17-32. And opportunity cost is one trendy phrase; but let me throw another at you ‘ Buy low, sell high’.
If you are picking in the back half of 1st ( say pick 29) and you take a qb or edge; you are getting the 4th or 5th best one: BUYING HIGH.
Whereas if you take the first developmental LT; you are slightly overpaying yes on an OBJECTIVE value scale; but still on a MARKET ORIENTED scale you are buying when others are selling.
If that isn’t a basic principle of BB GMship for the last 20 years; I am not sure where I have been.

 

[Uptown]

 

[captain stone]

Not that he was setting the world on fire there or anything, but I have a feeling this release is more than just performance-related...

 

[p8ryts]

What I love about being a NE fan is that the first ep of "Cheers" featured a character named Coach doing exactly what we do on here. And bonus, it's titled "Give me a ring sometime."



So anyway about the caponomics, I'm reading with interest both sides of the foodfight - "what you don't understand is that a draft pick is a resource with a value, no what you don't understand is that the draft is a crap shoot..."

Both are true. The value is a conditional value, not like a piece of machinery left idle that would otherwise produce goods fairly reliably with a fairly reliable market value.

So a draft pick you think is mis-used is less like an idle piece of machinery or a foolishly squandered bit of currency that can buy the product you want, and more like a rare raffle ticket. The higher the pick, the more likely it is to behave like currency -- i.e., you pay with the pick, you receive the goods. Hitting on the QB is the single highest-value payoff.

So it seems like both ideas are partially correct. We took our best shot (as a committee, it should be noted -- this was a pick BB signed off on. as will be all our highest picks at least.) But it was our highest pick for years, it was a QB-rich draft, and as the preferences of teams ahead of us would have it, we probably got an excellent fit for the team, in theory. We're still finding out how we did.

The crapshoot point is the only reason this outcome is in any doubt. There just aren't guarantees. You can take your E ticket, get on the ride, and find out in 2 or 3 years that it was the teacups, not space mountain.

I honestly think we do still have a good shot at the payoff in Mac Jones, and by the way, the (fourth round) rookie's no slouch either. A fun development project and extra confidence at the backup position (but please, fans at Gillette, when Mac's in, shut it with the chanting.)

Now that was good. I didn't know I had been featured on Cheers.

 

[Zuma]

 

[captain stone]

Skippy would've been better-served holding that "special" comment until after the game on Sunday...

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Unbelievable. Whew what a miss. It's always better when you miss with the NFL lol (both valuing him as a 1st) but still hurts.

One thing I can say about myself though is I don't dwell on losses save very few. I'm good at just not caring or having proper perspective when it comes to that. I don't spend a ton of time thinking about why I had someone there or beating myself up but Tillary is one of those guys you wonder about.

6'6 300 with 35 inch arms running 4.9. So disruptive in college but yea it be like that some times.
He could move people from A to B but used had a nice array of moves with good hands and that length.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The amazing thing to me is that Onwenu was pretty bad at LG last year.

If you can switch sides and basically become an All-Pro, then what does that say about the casual way we expect players to make the switch?

I'm talking about Wynn. We're all like, he stinks. But is he clearly not meant to be a RT the way Onwenu was clearly not an LG?

The OL is fascinating when you see the performance for the same player at different positions.

I made this point several times last year. Especially when you're talking about "in season" changes. Incredibly difficult to make that switch with little practice time to make the adjustment.

OL is all about trust and chemistry over the long haul. You could see the obvious differences looking at Wynn and Onwenu imo.

I definitely undervalued Thuney and what he meant to the line. Strange has a ton of those qualities and his athleticism stands out. So here's hoping he steps on that mantle.

So much promise just a few years ago and we'll see a new group next year. Interesting times in NE at the most important spots.