Will Mac Jones be the starter after the Bye ?

[Ring 6]

Yeah well never know and being a 5-5 team isn't the "own" ring 6 is trying to make it be.

Whipeee we are a middling team going nowhere with better QB play

Huh?

What is “own” supposed to mean? What would I “own”.

It is simply stating a fact of analysis. Without self destructive play at qb we have 3 more wins. What do we “own” because of that?

The real point is when you separate the QB from the other 52 it’s pretty clear the QB is holding the team back, and the other 52 aren’t as bad as some say.
It’s just obvious
Not sure what “own” you think that is.

 

[Ring 6]

Shown? That's your opinion nothing more. Unless you're in some alternate reality where we saw those losses turn to wins? Lol

In the alternate works where the qb isn’t self destructive those 3 games are absolutely wins.
In other words how bad would the team be if it didn’t have a self destructive qb? At least 5-5.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I wonder how many bad teams did this and actually got a QB really high in the draft who could have been a franchise or even elite QB. But because they had nothing around him and/or they were just a bad organization, they ruined that QB and he turned into a bust. I bet it has happened far more than people realize.

This happens for sure. Most of the time the QB is broken physically and then mentally by taking too many hits. David Carr is a good example. Closer to home Jim Plunkett was considered a bust after getting the crap beaten out of him in NE.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm sure it's happened. Other times teams trade out of landing a franchise QB and miss out and the other 1st rounders are busts.

At least until a few years ago (I remember looking it earlier in Brady’s career) almost every (maybe every) multi SB winning QB started on a bad team.
Bradshaw was drafted by a 1 win team. Montana took over a team that was 2-14 back to back. Brady 5-11, Broncos were 2-7 or 3-6 in strike shortened year they drafted Elway for example.

I think what it shows is teams are held back by bad QB play as much or more as they are elevated by good qb play.
Decent team with terrible qb looks like a bad team. Fix the qb and suddenly everyone else is better because the most important guy isn’t screwing up what everyone else contributes.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I highlighted all the QBs who became franchise QBs, not just the All Pros. Is Jared Goff an All Pro? Trevor Lawrence? I guess you can make an argument I should have highlighted Carson Wentz or Tedy Bridgewater, but they were short term starters and became career back ups or journeymen.

Who did I miss that turned into a franchise starter?

What I pretty much highlighted is first round QB draft picks are more boom or bust type of players. Either you are going to get a potential All Pro or you are getting a bust for the most part. And more often than not, you are more likely to get a bust.

You are wrapped around the axle over percentages. You can make that case for every player in the NFL Draft.

Are you saying if you were Parcells in 1993 you would trade out of #1 or Polian in 1998 and trade out of #1?

 

[TheRainMaker]

But if you look at it, the top QBs taken in the draft are more often than not being busts. Here are the first round QBs over the last ten years. I bolded the guys who are, could be, or were (in Murray's and possibly Watson's cases) franchise QBs. I highlighted the ones that are considered top or even elite QBs in the league. Out of 23 QBs taken in the first round (excluded this year's QBs since it it too early), I would say nine of them were legitimate franchise QBs. I count 16 QBs that I would consider busts or at least major disappointments and I everyone in the 2021 class not named Trevor. Gave Pickett a free pass for now, but he is trending towards bust in a hard way.

​

2023​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Bryce Young​	Panthers​	Alabama​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	C.J. Stroud​	Texans​	Ohio State​

​

2022​

1​

1​

20​

20​

Kenny Pickett​

Steelers​

Pittsburgh​

​

2021​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Trevor Lawrence​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Zach Wilson​	Jets​	Brigham Young​
	3​	1​	3​	3​	Trey Lance​	49ers​	North Dakota State​
	4​	1​	11​	11​	Justin Fields​	Bears​	Ohio State​
	5​	1​	15​	15​	Mac Jones​	Patriots​	Alabama​

​

2020​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Joe Burrow​	Bengals​	Louisiana State​
	2​	1​	5​	5​	Tua Tagovailoa​	Dolphins​	Alabama​
	3​	1​	6​	6​	Justin Herbert​	Chargers​	Oregon​
	4​	1​	26​	26​	Jordan Love​	Packers​	Utah State​

​

2019​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Kyler Murray​	Cardinals​	Oklahoma​
	2​	1​	6​	6​	Daniel Jones​	Giants​	Duke​
	3​	1​	15​	15​	Dwayne Haskins​	Redskins​	Ohio State​

​

2018​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Baker Mayfield​	Browns​	Oklahoma​
	2​	1​	3​	3​	Sam Darnold​	Jets​	USC​
	3​	1​	7​	7​	Josh Allen​	Bills​	Wyoming​
	4​	1​	10​	10​	Josh Rosen​	Cardinals​	UCLA​
	5​	1​	32​	32​	Lamar Jackson​	Ravens​	Louisville​

​

2017​	1​	1​	2​	2​	Mitchell Trubisky​	Bears​	North Carolina​
	2​	1​	10​	10​	Patrick Mahomes​	Chiefs​	Texas Tech​
	3​	1​	12​	12​	Deshaun Watson​	Texans​	Clemson​

​

2016​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Jared Goff​	Rams​	California​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Carson Wentz​	Eagles​	North Dakota State​
	3​	1​	26​	26​	Paxton Lynch​	Broncos​	Memphis​

​

2015​	1​	1​	1​	1​	Jameis Winston​	Buccaneers​	Florida State​
	2​	1​	2​	2​	Marcus Mariota​	Titans​	Oregon​

​

2014​	1​	1​	3​	3​	Blake Bortles​	Jaguars​	Central Florida​
	2​	1​	22​	22​	Johnny Manziel​	Browns​	Texas A&M​
	3​	1​	32​	32​	Teddy Bridgewater​	Vikings​	Louisville​

​

013​

1​

1​

16​

16​

EJ Manuel​

Bills​

Florida State​

The odds are not in your favor of picking the right guy. Of these QB's, Mahomes, Burrow, Watson pre suspension, Herbert, Jackson and possibly Stroud are the only standouts.

 

[Ring 6]

The odds are not in your favor of picking the right guy. Of these QB's, Mahomes, Burrow, Watson pre suspension, Herbert, Jackson and possibly Stroud are the only standouts.

And only 2 of those guys have won at all.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The odds are not in your favor of picking the right guy. Of these QB's, Mahomes, Burrow, Watson pre suspension, Herbert, Jackson and possibly Stroud are the only standouts.

Welcome to the NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

Might as well play black jack and split the 8s.

 

[TheRainMaker]

And only 2 of those guys have won at all.

If you're referring to Wentz, he doesn't really count as only played until week 13 of the 2017 season.

Mahomes is the only guy.

 

[Guts]

And only 2 of those guys have won at all.

Only 1 right
Mahomes and that's it
Actually it's only Mahomes and Russell Wilson of starting SB winners left lmao

 

[TheRainMaker]

Welcome to the NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

Might as well play black jack and split the 8s.

QB is by far the toughest to judge.

 

[RobertWeathers]

QB is by far the toughest to judge.

Yes and no.

More Than 50% Of First Round Picks Are Busts And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics | Page 2

How analytics can help lead to better drafting - especially when there is so much risk in the first round.

theriotreport.com

 

[Rob0729]

You are wrapped around the axle over percentages. You can make that case for every player in the NFL Draft.

Are you saying if you were Parcells in 1993 you would trade out of #1 or Polian in 1998 and trade out of #1?

The Pats were this close to taking Rick Mirer over Bledsoe. And ask the Chargers if they would take back the Ryan Leaf pick at #2.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The Pats were this close to taking Rick Mirer over Bledsoe. And ask the Chargers if they would take back the Ryan Leaf pick at #2.

I'll ask Parcells if he was happy with his pick, too.

 

[Rob0729]

The odds are not in your favor of picking the right guy. Of these QB's, Mahomes, Burrow, Watson pre suspension, Herbert, Jackson and possibly Stroud are the only standouts.

Definitely not. Even guys who were labeled generational players aren’t guaranteed that they will be like Lawrence.

That is why you have to at least consider a trade that the 49ers offered in 2021 or something better. You are more likely to build a contender that way than gambling on a QB in the top 3.

This is a QB rich draft and a guy taken after Maye could end up being better than either Maye or Williams.

 

[Rob0729]

I'll ask Parcells if he was happy, too.

The Pats were lucky that they picked the right one between Mirer and Bledsoe. And Bledsoe was a very good QB, but he didn’t live up to his draft position.


But what if hypothetically he traded away the #1 pick to Washington and drafted Willie Roaf in 1993 and Bryant Young in 1994 with the Redskins’ first rounders? You think Parcells would have been happier with two HOFers over Bledsoe? That literally could have happened.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The Pats were lucky that they picked the right one between Mirer and Bledsoe. And Bledsoe was a very good QB, but he didn’t live up to his draft position.


But what if hypothetically he traded away the #1 pick to Washington and drafted Willie Roaf in 1993 and Bryant Young in 1994 with the Redskins’ first rounders? You think Parcells would have been happier with two HOFers over Bledsoe? That literally could have happened.

Jesus you are a glass is half empty guy.

I'm out.

 

[ahmed]

At least until a few years ago (I remember looking it earlier in Brady’s career) almost every (maybe every) multi SB winning QB started on a bad team.
Bradshaw was drafted by a 1 win team. Montana took over a team that was 2-14 back to back. Brady 5-11, Broncos were 2-7 or 3-6 in strike shortened year they drafted Elway for example.

I think what it shows is teams are held back by bad QB play as much or more as they are elevated by good qb play.
Decent team with terrible qb looks like a bad team. Fix the qb and suddenly everyone else is better because the most important guy isn’t screwing up what everyone else contributes.

I always say the biggest reason QBs are so much more important is because bad QB play can sink a team worse than any other position by far. In fact bad QB play is worse on aggregate than probably having half the starting team be bad.

Jets would probably be in the running for best record with even average QB play.

 

[Rob0729]

Jesus you are a glass is half empty guy.

I'm out.

Not at all. I am making the case for the getting multiple draft picks may be the best way to go rather than gambling on one pick. That ain’t glass half full or glass half empty. That is arguing different strategies to rebuild the team.

The fact is even with the first pick, the draft is still part luck. You get more draft picks, you up your odds that you get a great player.

 

[PWRxWLF]

He’s 23

Which I get is old for a rookie.
Daniela is intriguing has Ewers decided one way or another yet?

He’ll be 24 by the time he’s drafted. You’re right though. For some odd reason I thought he was going to be 26? Daniels is gonna be 23 next season so I guess I dont have room to talk. I want a tall, strong armed qb. McCarthy is raw but I like his upside. Like the fact he plays for a previously pro coach.