I know this is going to get me in a lot of heat, but you really cannot talk about Wes Welker's production from 2007-wk 4,2010 without talking about Randy Moss. With Moss, Wes only had 8 games with fewer than 5 receptions over a 3 year and 4 wk period (I'm ignoring the wk 17 '09 Houston game - not his fault he only had one catch). That's amazing. Even more amazing when you consider Brady was gone for a year.
But, without Moss, Welker quickly racked up 5 games in 2010 where he caught fewer than 5 passes...over only 11 weeks (again, wk 17 is ignored). That's relevant. You can talk about the knee, and I get it, but it really didn't seem to hurt his reception totals through wks 1-4 of 2010. I don't doubt he was still not 100% through 2010. But I'd argue that his receptions where still on regular course because of Moss's presence (even despite horrid production from #81).
Let's look at Eddleman. In 2009, I believe there were 4 games where Welker was out and Eddleman took over his role (note, took over for Wes, not just played along side Wes). Those were: wk 2 against the Jets, wk 3 against ATL, wk 17 against Houston (minus one series), and the playoff game against Balt. All featured Moss, even the Houston game once Brady re-entered, if I recall. Eddleman racked up: 8,3,10, and 6 receptions. Too small of a sample size, I know, but that does project to 108 receptions in a full season. To even it out, we are essentially counting 8 out of those hypothetical 16 games against the Jets and Ravens. That's pretty good. But, I'd argue it's due to his role in that scheme dictated by personnel (i.e. Moss). Without the above, I highly question wether Eddleman is capable of those numbers.
So basically, I think Moss was kind of like a big warm security blanket for whoever was in the slot in this offense. He could boost reception totals for either player within that role. And if Moss was a long term commitment, then yes, I think you can argue that Wes would be good trade bait. But Moss is no longer here. He isn't coming back. Nor is he replaceable in terms of dictating coverage (has anyone, ever, drawn insane coverages the way Randy did?). Here's the rub. We've already seen what Wes can do w/o Moss. It's still very good. Can we say the same for Eddleman? Hell, no. To make matters worse, honestly, we really only had a brief snapshot of Julian's ability even with Moss. Sure he looked good in those 4 games, but we may have been significantly overrating him. His drop w/o Moss may be far more severe.
DISCLAIMER - Please do not misinterpret. I'm not arguing in favor of Randy's return or arguing that the old scheme was superior, or anything. Just that it's a team game and Welker, Eddleman, or whoever played slot benefited from Moss. People wonder why/if/when Welker can return to his former glory, and I strongly believe it's simply not possible without a receiver who can dictate an extreme over-compensation in coverage like Moss could. Welker is still good. Wouldn't be surprised if he's as good as ever. But not '120 receptions' good. IMO, more like '85 receptions' good.
That's fine by me when paired with all the other weapons, and I like this strategy better than what the offense looked like when Brady simply locked onto Moss and if covered simply dumped down to Welker.
