Why has Bill the GM been so poor the past decade?

[RIpats88]

alot of people want to look at just this year, but reality is that Bill has not drafted a pro-bowl player in the first round in a decade. thats crazy to think about. we look at this year being 2-9 and it didn't happen in a bubble. reality is the bad drafting started a WHILE ago and is why we are here.

the second dynasty was essentially built on great drafting. Edelman, Gronk, mccourty, hightower, trey flowers, chandler jones, shane vereen, james white etc....the list goes on and on. as guys left or needed to be replaced bill had their replacement ready. woodhead to vereen to james white. welker to edelman/amendola. and in a large part is what kept the patriots always competitive. Bill's inability to replace these players as they retired via the draft is why we are here.

people think having tons of cap space in 2020 and 2024 is a good thing. all it means is none of your drafted players are worth re-signing. so you need to overpay for other teams players they deem not worthy of re-signing.

has Bill just lost his evaluation of offensive talent? has his failure to adjust to brady not being here in Free agency/paying players played a role? (i.e. Bill offering guys like deandre hopkins below market deals as if brady is on the team and he'll take less to compete for a superbowl.) is it a complete disregard for offense taking for granted how Brady/mcDaniels held it together?

i'm not really even sure his strategy of what type of offense he wants to build. a GM thinking having your top receivers be parker/juju/bourne in 2023. what is the actual ceiling of that offense to compete with even with a good QB.

 

[PatsFan2]

alot of people want to look at just this year, but reality is that Bill has not drafted a pro-bowl player in the first round in a decade. thats crazy to think about. we look at this year being 2-9 and it didn't happen in a bubble. reality is the bad drafting started a WHILE ago and is why we are here.

the second dynasty was essentially built on great drafting. Edelman, Gronk, mccourty, hightower, trey flowers, chandler jones, shane vereen, james white etc....the list goes on and on. as guys left or needed to be replaced bill had their replacement ready. woodhead to vereen to james white. welker to edelman/amendola. and in a large part is what kept the patriots always competitive. Bill's inability to replace these players as they retired via the draft is why we are here.

people think having tons of cap space in 2020 and 2024 is a good thing. all it means is none of your drafted players are worth re-signing. so you need to overpay for other teams players they deem not worthy of re-signing.

has Bill just lost his evaluation of offensive talent? has his failure to adjust to brady not being here in Free agency/paying players played a role? (i.e. Bill offering guys like deandre hopkins below market deals as if brady is on the team and he'll take less to compete for a superbowl.) is it a complete disregard for offense taking for granted how Brady/mcDaniels held it together?

i'm not really even sure his strategy of what type of offense he wants to build. a GM thinking having your top receivers be parker/juju/bourne in 2023. what is the actual ceiling of that offense to compete with even with a good QB.

Yess a lot of us realize that years ago Harry over A.J. Brown... Tyquan Thornton over George Pickens. Not to mention the numerous Second Round CB Busts plus Cole Strange a bizarre First Rounder. BB doesn't have a QB to cover up his Draft blunders I don't want him within Two Thousand Miles of our next Draft.

 

[RIpats88]

Yess a lot of us realize that years ago Harry over A.J. Brown... Tyquan Thornton over George Pickens. Not to mention the numerous Second Round CB Busts plus Cole Strange First Rounder. BB doesn't have QB to cover up his Draft blinders I don't want him within Two Thousand Miles of our next Draft.

Yeah, I think Brady being so good covered up for a lot of Bills draft reaches for special teams players and outright missing on receivers.

Take Brady out of the mix. Guys aren't taking below market deals to play here. And draft misses loom larger because Brady isn't here to cover it up.

But still doesn't answer why bills drafting has been so bad since 2010. Bills inability to draft replacements ultimately is what lead to the roster being so bad in 2019 causing Brady to leave.

And continuing to draft poorly is why our roster today is worse than it was in 2020 during our supposed "reset year"

 

[PatsFan2]

Yeah, I think Brady being so good covered up for a lot of Bills draft reaches for special teams players and outright missing on receivers.

Take Brady out of the mix. Guys aren't taking below market deals to play here. And draft misses loom larger because Brady isn't here to cover it up.

But still doesn't answer why bills drafting has been so bad since 2010. Bills inability to draft replacements ultimately is what lead to the roster being so bad in 2019 causing Brady to leave.

And continuing to draft poorly is why our roster today is worse than it was in 2020 during our supposed "reset year"

BB drafting have been bad because he doesn't use the Metrics other Teams use. BB thinks he can Coach up just about anybody especially if they are Great and articulate in interviews those players don't translate more times than not just ask BB.

 

[MahomestoKelce]

The first batch of great draftees was around to make a difference in 2014 and 2016 especially. They eventually got older/left/injured as the years went on. Once 2019 came around, the impact of the great early drafts was kind of gone. And the results of bad drafts from 2014 onward reard it's ugly head. Having a top tier QB makes a huge difference. It means you can afford to miss more frequently vs having a lower tier/or bum QB. By 2019, it had gotten so bad that a very good, yet not prime QB was unable to cover the warts anymore. They still went 12-4.

Bill's drafting never really got much better. And unlike Tom Brady, Mac Jones isn't a guy who will make inferior players better than they are. So now you had the bad drafting minus an elite QB. So everything becomes magnified.

I imagine who he had around him. How he scouted. Who he listened too changed after 2012. People have speculated his drafts began to go downhill once McDaniels returned and was involved from 2013 onward. No way to know for sure.

As long as the team was getting byes, and advancing to the AFCCG every year, it would have been difficult for Kraft to take GM duties away from Bill. However, five straight years with no playoff victory, one blowout loss appearance, and three losing years changes all of that.

 

[Rob0729]

I think it was Albert Breer who said that in 2018, Josh McDaniels really lobbied Belichick to take Lamar Jackson because he felt he was going to be special. Belichick ultimately kiboshed the idea because Jackson didn't fit their system and it would be difficult to go from Brady to Jackson.

I think that is indicative of Belichick's mindset. He is set in his ways and unwilling to change his system for the talent that is coming out of the draft these days and is more focused on players he feels will fit his system. The problem I think is that there isn't a lot of talent coming out college these days that are protypical players for the Patriots' system. I don't think it is the only reason or possibly even the main reason Belichick has been bad at the draft, but it is probably a big contributing factor.

With the Jackson thing, he would have sat for at least a year or two behind Brady and it would have given the Patriots time to start to transform the offense to more suited for Jackson's skills. If Belichick believed McDaniels' evaluation of Jackson, that is what you do. I mean Sony Michel was a key contributor to the Super Bowl run that year, but he was just a RB and replaceable.

 

[patsinthesnow]

1. A disregard for positional value

•Drafting a rb in the first round in 2018
•Drafting a guard in the first round in 2022
•Drafting multiple specialists in rounds 4-5

2. A disregard for team need

•Drafting a slot cb in round 2 in 2018 when you had jonathan jones
•Drafting a cb in round 2 in 2019 when you had gilmore & jc jackson
•Drafting a box safety in round 3 in 2023 when you had dugger, peppers & phillips

3. Reaches

The entire 2022 draft was reaches. Strange was a projected 3rd round pick, thornton round 4 & jack jones undrafted. Mapu & nearly every pick from rds 4-5 was a reach in this draft.

I’ll also throw in not factoring in analytics enough. The pats keep drafting older players recently. They have to draft the best player available at high value positions while accounting for team needs.

 

[Rob0729]

The first batch of great draftees was around to make a difference in 2014 and 2016 especially. They eventually got older/left/injured as the years went on. Once 2019 came around, the impact of the great early drafts was kind of gone. And the results of bad drafts from 2014 onward reard it's ugly head. Having a top tier QB makes a huge difference. It means you can afford to miss more frequently vs having a lower tier/or bum QB. By 2019, it had gotten so bad that a very good, yet not prime QB was unable to cover the warts anymore. They still went 12-4.

Bill's drafting never really got much better. And unlike Tom Brady, Mac Jones isn't a guy who will make inferior players better than they are. So now you had the bad drafting minus an elite QB. So everything becomes magnified.

I imagine who he had around him. How he scouted. Who he listened too changed after 2012. People have speculated his drafts began to go downhill once McDaniels returned and was involved from 2013 onward. No way to know for sure.

As long as the team was getting byes, and advancing to the AFCCG every year, it would have been difficult for Kraft to take GM duties away from Bill. However, five straight years with no playoff victory, one blowout loss appearance, and three losing years changes all of that.

People falsely blame McDaniels based on one pick - Laurence Maroney- who was coached by his brother. I pointed out in my last post that McDaniels lobbied hard for Lamar Jackson and Belichick overruled him. McDaniels with the Broncos did draft Demaryius Thomas and Eric Becker with the Broncos who are better WRs than Belichick has ever drafted except for maybe Branch (although Thomas was better than Branch) and potentially Pop Douglas. He also drafted Zane Beadles who was a great guard.

And in free agency, McDaniels was likely responsible for bringing in Danny Amedola who was a good free agent pick up.

 

[rkarp1]

the leagues rules and ref's have changed the game to an offensive slugfest.
Bill wants to win games with defense and ST.
we have seen Bill go out and get Moss, Welkie and Stallworth. we have seen Bill bring along Troy Brown and JE. he has done it. he can do it.
will he do it?

 

[archstanton543]

"I only want to coach guys I like" - BB

And he seems to want to overthink high draft choices like he's done in the past. Zig when the rest of the league zags. A draft has a ton of TE talent? Don't draft a TE. A draft has a lot of WR talent? Don't take one until 6th round. Trading down instead of standing pat or standing pat instead of trading up. Drafting guys who nail the interview or have one outstanding trait and not taking into account other factors (mainly talking about Harry and Thornton). Drafting guys who dropped due to extracurricular things when the strong locker room that used to keep those guys more or less in line doesn't exist. Things like that.

Plus the reports that he doesn't use modern analytics and that he's surrounded himself with people who don't really challenge him (this happens a lot...not just in football but other professions as well). I know BB and others have said people challenge him but I don't buy it.

 

[PatsFan2]

I think it was Albert Breer who said that in 2018, Josh McDaniels really lobbied Belichick to take Lamar Jackson because he felt he was going to be special. Belichick ultimately kiboshed the idea because Jackson didn't fit their system and it would be difficult to go from Brady to Jackson.

I think that is indicative of Belichick's mindset. He is set in his ways and unwilling to change his system for the talent that is coming out of the draft these days and is more focused on players he feels will fit his system. The problem I think is that there isn't a lot of talent coming out college these days that are protypical players for the Patriots' system. I don't think it is the only reason or possibly even the main reason Belichick has been bad at the draft, but it is probably a big contributing factor.

With the Jackson thing, he would have sat for at least a year or two behind Brady and it would have given the Patriots time to start to transform the offense to more suited for Jackson's skills. If Belichick believed McDaniels' evaluation of Jackson, that is what you do. I mean Sony Michel was a key contributor to the Super Bowl run that year, but he was just a RB and replaceable.

Great Post regarding the Draft you still need a little luck that year Lamar Jackson was Drafted we had Two First Rounders Michel and Wynn. I wonder how many sleepless nights BB had since just thinking about the possibilities. We could have had a better Offensive lineup unlike the trainwreck Today.

 

[PatsFan2]

"I only want to coach guys I like" - BB

And he seems to want to overthink high draft choices like he's done in the past. Zig when the rest of the league zags. A draft has a ton of TE talent? Don't draft a TE. A draft has a lot of WR talent? Don't take one until 6th round. Trading down instead of standing pat or standing pat instead of trading up. Drafting guys who nail the interview or have one outstanding trait and not taking into account other factors (mainly talking about Harry and Thornton). Drafting guys who dropped due to extracurricular things when the strong locker room that used to keep those guys more or less in line doesn't exist. Things like that.

Plus the reports that he doesn't use modern analytics and that he's surrounded himself with people who don't really challenge him (this happens a lot...not just in football but other professions as well). I know BB and others have said people challenge him but I don't buy it.

I hope the Krafts reads this board your post should be the nail in BB's coffin here I am not going to miss the current BB love the younger one.

 

[Triumph]

Mac Jones went to the Pro Bowl in 2021.

Scored a TD too on a QB scramble.

 

[RobertWeathers]

the leagues rules and ref's have changed the game to an offensive slugfest.
Bill wants to win games with defense and ST.
we have seen Bill go out and get Moss, Welkie and Stallworth. we have seen Bill bring along Troy Brown and JE. he has done it. he can do it.
will he do it?

Not accurate. Scoring has gone down 2 straight years and is down to pre 2010 days

Combination of lousy execution, crappy QBs and defenses adjusting.

 

[Nehalem]

has Bill just lost his evaluation of offensive talent?

When has Bill been good at evaluating offensive talent

Good offensive skills position players drafted by Bill other than Tom Brady.

(1) Deion Branch 2nd
(2) Edelman 7th (note QB converted to WR)
(3) Gronkowski 2nd (note fell due to injury concerns)
(4) Hernandez 4th (fell due to "character" concerns)
(5) Garoppolo 2nd

The last good offensive player drafted was in 2014. So a total of 5. One of who was a QB who converted to WR. And one of whom fell in the draft due to character concerns and ended up being a murdering psychopath. So basically 3 real hits, one of whom only played 1.5 games with the Patriots.

To that you could add Jakobi Meyers as an UDFA in 2019. Except note that BB played N'Keal Harry over him for first 5 games in 2020, and choose to Smith-Schuester over him in FA.

 

[Fubby]

Bill’s draft strategy, free agent strategy, player/coach accountability strategy, game planning strategy, is all an incoherent mess. He is a stubborn old mule at this point with sycophants all around him encouraging him to stay the course.

The drafts have sucked for years and that’s not even looking at it in hindsight. It’s been plain to see in the moment

 

[moosekill]

I have loved watching all those playoff wins that Jackson has won. All those superbowl titles. Of course his first two years were when Tom was still in New England, so he wouldn't have played those 2 years, then maybe year three he starts?

Compare Bill's drafts to other team's drafts. Take into account the stolen picks and picking dead last in the rounds each year and you start to see the issues.

 

[archstanton543]

I have loved watching all those playoff wins that Jackson has won. All those superbowl titles. Of course his first two years were when Tom was still in New England, so he wouldn't have played those 2 years, then maybe year three he starts?

Compare Bill's drafts to other team's drafts. Take into account the stolen picks and picking dead last in the rounds each year and you start to see the issues.

That's just making excuses. There's plenty of talent to be had at the end of the first round. The Harry pick and those picked after him prove that.

 

[ahmed]

Belichick's drafts have always been a head scratcher (too much spent on special teams, nonsensical DB picks in 2nd round...). Anyone who has been around here a long time will attest to the yearly reactions.

He always had horrendous reaches and unexplainable choices, sprinkled sometimes with good picks (Jones, Hightower) and gambles that paid off (Gronk injured, Edelman a shot in the dark).

Lately none of those reaches and gambles have worked out, add to that the usual reaches and a bad QB.

That said, this team has talent. The problem is the talent is so marred by horrendous QB play that it has no shot to stand out or produce. I remember watching a 2001 highlight where Vinatieri was being called a kid from the midwest by the commentator. He did not all of a suddent become great in 2001. He just finally had the opportunity to shine on a winning team with important kicks.

 

[Thelonious]

There is a lot of carefully and honestly curated evidence in this thread showing that Bill has not for some time been a competent GM. Under any sort of reasonable evaluative criteria, he is a failed GM. I suspect an equally impressive array of evidence would show that over more recent times, he has been a failing HC also.

I don't think further discussion is needed on the matter. He has to go. All of this is sad and unfortunate, of course: it is painful. But it is so.

Further discussion of this matter is really as pointless as discussion in recent days over whom to start as QB. It doesn't matter. The qb room is as defunct as the team is. This too, particularly given to cruel and incompetent manner manner in which Mac has been handled, is an occasion for sadness and regret. But it is so.

I have been saying since preseason, to the understandable annoyance of some, that the team needs a clean sweep and a complete rebuild, that this year is entirely about next year and years following. I suspect, given the team's deplorable condition that we may well be saying the same next year. I understand anyone''s reluctance to arrive at this conclusion, but there it is.

I am going to enjoy the rebuild. That is where I am redirecting my attention. The demolition which must precede that rebuild is far less interesting to me at this point. Just get it done.