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By plausible, I mean that it wouldn't be too surprising: a lucky break or two, along with good injury luck, and the appearance would seem reasonable. They might not be the favorites, per se - maybe you have a team that you expect to outperform expectations - but they're the ones you'd expect to have a good shot at the AFC/NFC championship games, where that luck (like a Brady injury) could happen.
For the AFC, I'd say the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, and Raiders qualify; for the NFC, the Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks, and Packers.
The Chiefs seem to have reached their ceiling, and I think they'd need a postseason gift-wrapped with injured opposing QBs to break through; Smith is too limited to carry a team and Reid's flaws as a coach are worsened in the postseason. The Colts just aren't that good, and Luck's not nearly as good as Peyton was at compensating for poor protection. The Titans might make the cut next year, but at this point I'd be shocked if they busted through. The Ravens are dangerous in any single game, but aren't consistent enough to make a run reasonable.
Meanwhile the Patriots are the favorites, the Steelers just need somebody else to take out the Patriots, the Raiders could take anybody in a shootout, and the Texans just need Watson to be Rob Johnson to be a threat.
Unlike the AFC, where there's a couple of teams I see falling short but still being good (I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chiefs won their division, even), the NFC seems a bit more top heavy this year. The Bucs are really the only ones who seem ready to challenge for recognition - the Lions are deeply flawed, the Panthers caught lightning in a bottle two years ago, and who else is there? The Cardinals, who are hoping that Palmer can continue to survive?
Atlanta's offense is stellar, and likewise the Cowboys; both can take the Raiders route of winning shootouts. The Packers are prone to inexplicable losing streaks but have the talent and the QB to win another title. The Seahawks are a solid team with one glaring weakness (the inoffensive line) standing in the way, and just need them to play not-bad.
For the AFC, I'd say the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, and Raiders qualify; for the NFC, the Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks, and Packers.
The Chiefs seem to have reached their ceiling, and I think they'd need a postseason gift-wrapped with injured opposing QBs to break through; Smith is too limited to carry a team and Reid's flaws as a coach are worsened in the postseason. The Colts just aren't that good, and Luck's not nearly as good as Peyton was at compensating for poor protection. The Titans might make the cut next year, but at this point I'd be shocked if they busted through. The Ravens are dangerous in any single game, but aren't consistent enough to make a run reasonable.
Meanwhile the Patriots are the favorites, the Steelers just need somebody else to take out the Patriots, the Raiders could take anybody in a shootout, and the Texans just need Watson to be Rob Johnson to be a threat.
Unlike the AFC, where there's a couple of teams I see falling short but still being good (I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chiefs won their division, even), the NFC seems a bit more top heavy this year. The Bucs are really the only ones who seem ready to challenge for recognition - the Lions are deeply flawed, the Panthers caught lightning in a bottle two years ago, and who else is there? The Cardinals, who are hoping that Palmer can continue to survive?
Atlanta's offense is stellar, and likewise the Cowboys; both can take the Raiders route of winning shootouts. The Packers are prone to inexplicable losing streaks but have the talent and the QB to win another title. The Seahawks are a solid team with one glaring weakness (the inoffensive line) standing in the way, and just need them to play not-bad.
