What to do about RB??

[stinkypete]

Remember:

For an RB to consistently get on the field, he has to be able to contribute on passing plays, and not just as a play-action decoy. It is highly desirable that he be able to pass block. Being a credible receiver is a plus too, although even Dillon-level is probably good enough (and by the way, I have distinct memories of Dillon beating an LB covering him with a double move).

Based on that, who other than Ingram could consistently get on the field?

Ryan Williams can help in all aspects of the offense, but he is a likely top 40 pick.

I like Kendall Hunter in a 3rd down role, but we already got two of those.

I would like Roy Helu except he's a liability as a pass blocker.

I am intrigued by Taiwan Jones. He's got that home run speed that our backs lack. I'd look at him in round 4.

I also like Bilal Powell as a power back type, but there are some deficiencies in his game that could be big problems as a pro. I don't like to read "flails his limbs" or "whiffs on blocks." If he's coachable, I like him in 5 or later.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Excerpted from the latest BritPat contact summary, with adjustments based on my individual understanding:

RB: Alex Green, Hawaii - I
RB: Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State - PW, V
RB: Mikel Leshoure, Illinois - V
RB: Derrick Locke, Kentucky - I, PW
RB: DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma - I
RB: Bilal Powell, Louisville - MC PW
RB: Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State - MC
RB: Da'Rel Scott, Maryland - PW
RB: Jordan Todman, Conneticut - C (IF) V
RB: Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech - PW (IF) V

Note:
-- The four reported visits (V) are primarily round two projections from most major draftniks.
-- The four reported MC/PW prospects who are not linked to a visit are day three projections for most major draftniks (for the purposes of my analyis, MC = PW for level of interest as I interpreted the original news report).
-- Each grouping is further divided between two larger RBs and two smaller RBs, roughly weight equivalents to B-Jeepers for the larger backs and Faulk/Woody for the smaller backs. Speed, quickness, receiving skills seem fairly consistent, ability to run inside exists in all cases, with varying degrees of effectiveness based mostly on weight.
-- Each grouping has two backs with durability questions:
---- Williams and Hunter
---- Locke and Scott
-- The later grouping has backs with some fumbling concerns.

Using the rookBoston Value Grouping theory, you could argue NE has established two value groups for RB. This theory is not consistent for each draft, but potentially appears to explain one of multiple methods some of us believe NE may be applying to clarify their draft board. If rook did, in general, identify this method from drafts past, I suspect it is applied as a secondary method to one which more specifically identifies a NE prospect for a position. In this case I believe NE has a clear leader at RB in the first group specifically, and that player's chances of being drafted are affected by leaders for other position's value groups (in round two DL and perhaps OLB appear to have value groupings; day three may have an interior OL and/or an ILB/ST grouping).

As an aside;

-- Round One: appears to have an OT value group, there is an outlier OT, perhaps two in round two as possible alternates in the event the first half of round one creates an unexpected opportunity. OTs Castonzo, Smith, Solder; with second round projections Carpenter and possibly Ijalana (though I'm downgrading him to late second at the moment). CB/FS Amukamara was brought in for a visit which suggests he has a higher chance of slipping down in NE's eyes.
-- Round Two: has the RB group identified above, and a DL group. Both the RB and DL groupings could also be called 'day two' groups as some prospects will undoubtedly slip in round three as the draft unfolds. DL Austin, Wilkerson, Ellis, Jordan (I consider him a second), Clayborn, Bailey, and McClain. OLB: Bailey, Jordan, and Clayborn are all crossovers who combine with Reed, Aldon Smith (another second as I grade him), and LB-with-no-clear-position Martez Wilson.
-- Mid Rounds (Three-Five): has an interior OL value group and what appears to be a CB value group. Interior OL start with OT crossovers Carpenter and Ijalana, and include Rackley, Fusco, Barnes, Kirkpatrick, and possibly Niland. CB includes Chykie Brown, Curtis Brown, Patrick, and Skrine - depending how you grade Brandon Harris he could fall into this group as a late second outlier.
-- Late Rounds (could just as easily be UDFA too): ILB/STs has a value group of McCarthy, Moten, Mohamed, Lockley. If you expanded it to be an interior defenders/STs group you could include S Dunn, Jarret, Rutland, LeGree and CB/FS Allen.

Interesting to also note if you accept the value group premise, for day two DL, the highest profile contacts (BB with Bailey and at McClain's Pro-Day) are the lower ranked projections. The same holds true for RB with Ivan Fears taking Todman to dinner, attending the Pro-Day, and having him in for a visit. On the other hand you could say Scar's highest profile was with arguable #1 OT Castonzo, though that may also have been a function of local media.

 

[woolster22]

Anyone else love the washing machine with legs that is delone carter? Yeah, he is short, but I don't think you could describe him as small. Reminds me a bit of Maurice Jones-Drew...where do I sign?

 

[Off The Grid]

Actually, according to FootballOutsiders, we were 8th best in the league last season at doing just that - getting yards on 3rd-and-two. We converted those situations at a 68% rate.

The teams ahead if us were:

#1 - MIA - 83%
#2 - NY JETS - 76%
#3 - Philly - 76%
#4 - CLE - 74%
#5 - ARZ - 73%
#6 - MIN - 70%
#7 - NO - 70%


Interesting side note - we played 6 games last season against teams in the top seven in this rushing category.

Our three losses came against the #2 and #4 teams.

Not that run defense matters at all in this "passing league".

Beautifull!! :rocker:

 

[MaineMan]

Excerpted from the latest BritPat contact summary, with adjustments based on my individual understanding:

RB: Alex Green, Hawaii - I
RB: Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State - PW, V
RB: Mikel Leshoure, Illinois - V
RB: Derrick Locke, Kentucky - I, PW
RB: DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma - I
RB: Bilal Powell, Louisville - MC PW
RB: Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State - MC
RB: Da'Rel Scott, Maryland - PW
RB: Jordan Todman, Conneticut - C (IF) V
RB: Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech - PW (IF) V

Note:
-- The four reported visits (V) are primarily round two projections from most major draftniks.
-- The four reported MC/PW prospects who are not linked to a visit are day three projections for most major draftniks (for the purposes of my analyis, MC = PW for level of interest as I interpreted the original news report).
-- Each grouping is further divided between two larger RBs and two smaller RBs, roughly weight equivalents to B-Jeepers for the larger backs and Faulk/Woody for the smaller backs. Speed, quickness, receiving skills seem fairly consistent, ability to run inside exists in all cases, with varying degrees of effectiveness based mostly on weight.
-- Each grouping has two backs with durability questions:
---- Williams and Hunter
---- Locke and Scott
-- The later grouping has backs with some fumbling concerns.

Using the rookBoston Value Grouping theory, you could argue NE has established two value groups for RB. This theory is not consistent for each draft, but potentially appears to explain one of multiple methods some of us believe NE may be applying to clarify their draft board. If rook did, in general, identify this method from drafts past, I suspect it is applied as a secondary method to one which more specifically identifies a NE prospect for a position. In this case I believe NE has a clear leader at RB in the first group specifically, and that player's chances of being drafted are affected by leaders for other position's value groups (in round two DL and perhaps OLB appear to have value groupings; day three may have an interior OL and/or an ILB/ST grouping).

As an aside;

-- Round One: appears to have an OT value group, there is an outlier OT, perhaps two in round two as possible alternates in the event the first half of round one creates an unexpected opportunity. OTs Castonzo, Smith, Solder; with second round projections Carpenter and possibly Ijalana (though I'm downgrading him to late second at the moment). CB/FS Amukamara was brought in for a visit which suggests he has a higher chance of slipping down in NE's eyes.
-- Round Two: has the RB group identified above, and a DL group. Both the RB and DL groupings could also be called 'day two' groups as some prospects will undoubtedly slip in round three as the draft unfolds. DL Austin, Wilkerson, Ellis, Jordan (I consider him a second), Clayborn, Bailey, and McClain. OLB: Bailey, Jordan, and Clayborn are all crossovers who combine with Reed, Aldon Smith (another second as I grade him), and LB-with-no-clear-position Martez Wilson.
-- Mid Rounds (Three-Five): has an interior OL value group and what appears to be a CB value group. Interior OL start with OT crossovers Carpenter and Ijalana, and include Rackley, Fusco, Barnes, Kirkpatrick, and possibly Niland. CB includes Chykie Brown, Curtis Brown, Patrick, and Skrine - depending how you grade Brandon Harris he could fall into this group as a late second outlier.
-- Late Rounds (could just as easily be UDFA too): ILB/STs has a value group of McCarthy, Moten, Mohamed, Lockley. If you expanded it to be an interior defenders/STs group you could include S Dunn, Jarret, Rutland, LeGree and CB/FS Allen.

Interesting to also note if you accept the value group premise, for day two DL, the highest profile contacts (BB with Bailey and at McClain's Pro-Day) are the lower ranked projections. The same holds true for RB with Ivan Fears taking Todman to dinner, attending the Pro-Day, and having him in for a visit. On the other hand you could say Scar's highest profile was with arguable #1 OT Castonzo, though that may also have been a function of local media.

Excellent breakdown, nice method.

If we had a "BritPat List" for every team in the league and applied a similar breakdown, we could probably come up with some relatively accurate estimates of how the draft might fall. I mean, it would still be guesswork, but this method would at least provide us with a firm basis for fooling ourselves into believing that it was informed guesswork.

 

[meggett]

Excellent breakdown, nice method.

If we had a "BritPat List" for every team in the league and applied a similar breakdown, we could probably come up with some relatively accurate estimates of how the draft might fall. I mean, it would still be guesswork, but this method would at least provide us with a firm basis for fooling ourselves into believing that it was informed guesswork.

you also have to take into account that some of these "visits" could just be done because of NE attendance at another prospects pro day, not that they were there for some of these guys, but if your there you might as well evaluate the other prospects from that school. i could see that being the case with Locke and Scott. and we seem to always have "visits" with UCONN players, because, why not? its not exactly a flight to USC.

 

[furley]

I am thinking that the value would be better at rounds 2-4, but the argument can also made that Belichick prefers a 1st rd pick that can come in and contribute immedaitely. I am thinking that one of the others could also do that--albeit on a more limited basis, and it may even turn out better than we thought.

The question I am pondering is WHO exactly does the board feel would be a good value pick in rds 2-4? Or are there some (don't be afraid to speak up) who still think we should take one early, due to a 'luxury' that we may have this year?

In my opinion, you've to talk to Denver about those two second round picks they own. Give up the twenty-eighth pick since it's already rumored to be available. However, a lot will depend on what Denver does with Tebow and whether or not they see Orton as more than a stopgap quarterback next season.

Running back prospects that would interest me in the second or third round include Mikel Leshoure, Ryan Williams, DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu Jr. and Stevan Ridley. Actually, I would go as far as to say Belichick should select two running backs from this list or in general in rounds two through five.

My feeling is you need somebody to pair with Green-Ellis, and another running back to replace Faulk. If Woodhead can fill the latter role, then I suggest you require good depth. Conversely, Belichick should move on from signing a broken down veteran unless you can sign a veteran free agent such as Joseph Addai.

I expect Belichick to carry four running backs for 2011. Perhaps, you sign an additional running back to the practice squad who wasn't drafted.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/rookie
Danny Woodhead/rookie

 

[jays52]

I think the most important thing to add to the RB corps is a guy who can contribute in the directional and zone games. As it stands right now they have a directional back in BJGE and a zone back in Woody. It makes defensive calls easy to make when you know what kind of blocking scheme is going to be run ahead of time. The player must also be ready to go soon. Having experience in zone, midline read, and power offenses is helpful. Sounds a lot like the blur offense, don't it? That's why I'm partial to Vereen who not only has the patience and power to be a directional back, but the burst to be an effective zone back.

I would also like to add a toy. Check out some of the stuff Charlie Weiss did in KC with Jammal Charles. Charles is obviously a great zone back, and Charlie took a great concept from the Wildcat and applied it to his own offense. One of the major keys to the Wildcat was an unbalanced line. It sounds simple, but an unbalanced line creates more gaps. In zone blocking, the more gaps you can create the more effective you are going to be. Weiss had good tackle depth and frequently would go unbalanced with a tackle at TE and run zone down their throats. If the defense shifted, there was a check to involve the z and h on the "weak" side of the formation. It was a great wrinkle to add and kept teams on their toes defensively which is obviously something last year's execution offense was sorely lacking. Think about the Patriots roster. Quick, agile receivers. A tight end that can play tackle. Another beastly tackle. A good zone line. If they were to take a player like Taiwan Jones who is exclusively zone back, but lethal in potential, they could add this wrinkle and continue to evolve the offense into a modified TE heavy spread.

 

[meggett]

I think the most important thing to add to the RB corps is a guy who can contribute in the directional and zone games. As it stands right now they have a directional back in BJGE and a zone back in Woody. It makes defensive calls easy to make when you know what kind of blocking scheme is going to be run ahead of time. The player must also be ready to go soon. Having experience in zone, midline read, and power offenses is helpful. Sounds a lot like the blur offense, don't it? That's why I'm partial to Vereen who not only has the patience and power to be a directional back, but the burst to be an effective zone back.

I would also like to add a toy. Check out some of the stuff Charlie Weiss did in KC with Jammal Charles. Charles is obviously a great zone back, and Charlie took a great concept from the Wildcat and applied it to his own offense. One of the major keys to the Wildcat was an unbalanced line. It sounds simple, but an unbalanced line creates more gaps. In zone blocking, the more gaps you can create the more effective you are going to be. Weiss had good tackle depth and frequently would go unbalanced with a tackle at TE and run zone down their throats. If the defense shifted, there was a check to involve the z and h on the "weak" side of the formation. It was a great wrinkle to add and kept teams on their toes defensively which is obviously something last year's execution offense was sorely lacking. Think about the Patriots roster. Quick, agile receivers. A tight end that can play tackle. Another beastly tackle. A good zone line. If they were to take a player like Taiwan Jones who is exclusively zone back, but lethal in potential, they could add this wrinkle and continue to evolve the offense into a modified TE heavy spread.

Read my mind with Taiwan Jones. When is the last time we have had a threat like that in the backfield. I know he hasnt done anything in the NFL but just look at what hes capable of. give him 8 to 12 carrys a game and put him on kickoffs with Tate and thats about what you want from a guy in the 2nd to 4th round in his first year. KID CAN FLY.igsfly:

 

[eagle eye]

I don't think the Patriots will spend much in the draft on a RB. We got a young BJGE, we got a young Danny Woodhead. Belichick will want experience sitting behind or beside them. I think Taylor is likely gone given all the time he has spent out injured, I can see Morris having another year here and then the question is if Faulk comes back or if some other vet is brought in.

 

[Don Kipines]

You heard it here first: someone is going to draft Taiwan Jones in the first round. That sounds crazy, but after that pro day, there's no more bargain shopping for this kid.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You heard it here first: someone is going to draft Taiwan Jones in the first round. That sounds crazy, but after that pro day, there's no more bargain shopping for this kid.

Push another player closer to NE, it works for me.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't think the Patriots will spend much in the draft on a RB. We got a young BJGE, we got a young Danny Woodhead. Belichick will want experience sitting behind or beside them. I think Taylor is likely gone given all the time he has spent out injured, I can see Morris having another year here and then the question is if Faulk comes back or if some other vet is brought in.

I love Sammy, I'm sad he didn't leave with a ring, but I don't see the upside to keeping him over Faulk as the veteran RB ... or keeping him over another veteran free agent whom NE might seek out. Taylor has all but announced his retirement in a recent story, overdue I think. I see Kettani taking Morris' role, I'd be shocked if he hasn't spent the last couple years working with a Juggs and practicing route running, all off an Ivan Fears play sheet.

 

[RussFrancis]

Lack of FA is killing us right now in this area. We'd have definitely signed a veteran RB by now, maybe Ronnie Brown or someone along those lines. Now entering the draft, we're probably gonna be thinking about the position more than we would otherwise. Of course, we can probably say that about OTackle and other positions as well. I think we'll consider RB in that 'best player available' approach at 33 and beyond.

 

[dryheat44]

I don't think the Patriots will spend much in the draft on a RB. We got a young BJGE, we got a young Danny Woodhead. Belichick will want experience sitting behind or beside them. I think Taylor is likely gone given all the time he has spent out injured, I can see Morris having another year here and then the question is if Faulk comes back or if some other vet is brought in.

I can see a Morris-like vet coming in who can play special teams and get the rock on occasion. The best I see right now among the free agents is Jason Wright, most recently with the Cardinals.

 

[jays52]

Push another player closer to NE, it works for me.

Yup. No way an NFL executive is dumb enough to burn a first on Jones, but I sure hope one is. I think Jones' value is in the late 3rd-5th.

 

[Off The Grid]

Yup. No way an NFL executive is dumb enough to burn a first on Jones, but I sure hope one is.

I think Jones' value is in the late 3rd-5th.

Perfect.

The "40" Frenzy has begun, and most folks are gonna have Jones soaring into the 2nd Round...But this Running Back Class, although arguably bereft of 1st Round talent, boasts an exceptionally deep 2nd Tier.

That should push him down to the Mid Rounds.

 

[MaineMan]

I love Sammy, I'm sad he didn't leave with a ring, but I don't see the upside to keeping him over Faulk as the veteran RB ... or keeping him over another veteran free agent whom NE might seek out. Taylor has all but announced his retirement in a recent story, overdue I think. I see Kettani taking Morris' role, I'd be shocked if he hasn't spent the last couple years working with a Juggs and practicing route running, all off an Ivan Fears play sheet.

I'd really like to see Kettani come through. He certainly seemed to have all the right stuff coming out of Navy. I read that he was assigned to surface warfare. I'd think that might be good prep for an NFL career.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'd really like to see Kettani come through. He certainly seemed to have all the right stuff coming out of Navy. I read that he was assigned to surface warfare. I'd think that might be good prep for an NFL career.

It's cutthroat enough for NFL prep, that's for sure!

 

[patsinthesnow]

Taiwan Jones is flying up the boards since his pro day. Most sites have him as the 7th-9th RB, Walter Football has him as the #4 back.

Mcshay just said he could slip into the 2nd round and should be a 3rd rounder, where the hell did this kid come from?

YouTube - Taiwan Jones Highlights.wmv

His game speed looks like it matches his 4.35 forty. He could be what the pats need as a "homerun threat" to help the running game. Only thing I don't like is his skinny frame at 6' 200, he may need to gain a few pounds for the next level.

EDIT: oops, I didn't read the posts as Don and some others have mentioned him. He could have the biggest upside of the RBs.