What to do about RB??

[supafly]

So, at first I believed that RB would be taken with one of our first 2-3 picks (I know, I know I'm in the minority )

Now, after re-thinking it a bit, I'm back up in the air. I'm drunk with BJGE stats, and just realized that he was currently the only RB in the league with 13 or more TD's, 1,000 yds+, and ZERO fumbles.

The only other closest competition was leading rusher Adrian Foster, who had 1,600 yds and 16 TD's (but fumbled 3x)

and..Rashard Mendenhall who had almost 1,300 yds and 13 TD's (but fumbled 4x, if you include the 2 in the postseason)

--------

Now, I think most of us agree that a RB should be taken to compliment BJGE, and I feel for sure that will happen in the draft. The question is, where?

There's an argument that Ingram or Leshore would be a good pick in the first 33 or so (which will somehow only be 2 picks for us, as at least 1 should be traded, especially for 1st rd value next yr). There's also the argument that we could grab a Ryan Williams, Daniel Thomas, Shane Vereen, Jordan Todman, or Demarco Murray in the next rounds of 2-4.

I am thinking that the value would be better at rounds 2-4, but the argument can also made that Belichick prefers a 1st rd pick that can come in and contribute immedaitely. I am thinking that one of the others could also do that--albeit on a more limited basis, and it may even turn out better than we thought.

The question I am pondering is WHO exactly does the board feel would be a good value pick in rds 2-4? Or are there some (don't be afraid to speak up) who still think we should take one early, due to a 'luxury' that we may have this year?

FWIW--I like Ryan Williams and Shane Vereen, who I pick to be the 3rd and 4th RB's taken. I believe that we will have to take one by the end of round 2 to be safe if we want one of them.

 

[Fencer]

The positions where we have 100% coverage with "special" players are:

• QB
• K
• P, if one's a little optimistic about the youngster
• TE, if one's a little optimistic about the youngsters in general and more than a little optimistic about Hernandez' blocking
• NT, if one judges that it doesn't matter that Wilfork shouldn't play ever snap
• ILB if one's very confident about Spikes
• S if one's very optimistic about both the Pro Bowler and Chung

At any position where there isn't 100% coverage with special players, the right guy can be worth a pick.

 

[stinkypete]

Belichick prefers 4 down players in the early rounds, right?

So where does a high pick RB fit? Draft Ingram or Leshoure, then you gotta sit BJGE. Woodhead's role is pretty much set.

Not to say we can't improve on BJGE, but is it worth the risk when there are bigger needs at OL, DE, DB?

Also, the argument that a 1st rounder will help immediately is misguided. Recently, rookie RBs who contribute have come from all rounds of the draft and UDFA. What's the benefit of taking someone round 1 unless that guy is going to carry the ball 25 times a day.

 

[supafly]

Belichick prefers 4 down players in the early rounds, right?

So where does a high pick RB fit? Draft Ingram or Leshoure, then you gotta sit BJGE. Woodhead's role is pretty much set.

Not to say we can't improve on BJGE, but is it worth the risk when there are bigger needs at OL, DE, DB?

Also, the argument that a 1st rounder will help immediately is misguided. Recently, rookie RBs who contribute have come from all rounds of the draft and UDFA. What's the benefit of taking someone round 1 unless that guy is going to carry the ball 25 times a day.

All good points, but the question is who do you like in the later rounds? I presume it will be rounds 2-4, as there seem to be a dropoff after about round 3 (IMO).

 

[supafly]

I am thinking that the value would be better at rounds 2-4, but the argument can also made that Belichick prefers a 1st rd pick that can come in and contribute immedaitely. I am thinking that one of the others could also do that--albeit on a more limited basis, and it may even turn out better than we thought.

The question I am pondering is WHO exactly does the board feel would be a good value pick in rds 2-4? Or are there some (don't be afraid to speak up) who still think we should take one early, due to a 'luxury' that we may have this year?

FWIW--I like Ryan Williams and Shane Vereen, who I pick to be the 3rd and 4th RB's taken. I believe that we will have to take one by the end of round 2 to be safe if we want one of them.

This is pretty much where I was going personally.

Also, the argument that a 1st rounder will help immediately is misguided. Recently, rookie RBs who contribute have come from all rounds of the draft and UDFA. What's the benefit of taking someone round 1 unless that guy is going to carry the ball 25 times a day.

I don't know if Belichick wants a 25x carrier in the sense of Dillion anymore as he seemed to switch to the RBBC? Or if he was simply forced to do that due to the ineffectiveness and injuries of some of our backs? That is a question only he can answer.

I do know that there is a dropoff after Ryan Williams and Shane Vereen, as Murray is often hurt and tends to run high, and Todman just does not seem to be quite as good or athletic overall.

Leshore, Ingram, Williams, and Vereen all have their own specific qualities that could make them a 25x a game back--if we ever go that route, especially due to 3rd down back situations, and passing a lot. I suspect a workhorse in this offense would get closer to 20x a game carries--but that is plain old semantics. Whether it's 20, 22, or 25 hardly matters.

What does matter though, is that we have to pick up a RB, and with having the majority of the team pretty established, I don't really see why we'd risk taking someone in rounds 5, 6, or 7, particularly since the talent is a lot better earlier on through round 3 or so.

We also may need that 20-25x a game carrier since BJGE may be gone next year, depending on this upcoming year and how much he will want. I have a feeling BB likes his hard work, and would be willing to reward him with something fair, but also believes that he is a major overachiever with the possibility that he had a once in 'his' lifetime year. I guess it'll all depend on what BJGE does this upcoming year, but we need the potential to replace him, or have another guy who can take the bruising if he gets hurt. Or the argument can also be made that we are simply looking for the RB of the future, or someone with more breakaway speed.

 

[MaineMan]

Belichick prefers 4 down players in the early rounds, right?

So where does a high pick RB fit? Draft Ingram or Leshoure, then you gotta sit BJGE. Woodhead's role is pretty much set.

Not to say we can't improve on BJGE, but is it worth the risk when there are bigger needs at OL, DE, DB?

Also, the argument that a 1st rounder will help immediately is misguided. Recently, rookie RBs who contribute have come from all rounds of the draft and UDFA. What's the benefit of taking someone round 1 unless that guy is going to carry the ball 25 times a day.

If by "you gotta sit BGE", you mean "make him inactive", I don't think that's the case. Seems to me we always had at least 3 RBs active for game days last season.

I'm certainly not arguing that "a 1st rounder WILL help immediately" or even that a 1st rounder is absolutely necessary. As always, it depends on the guy and what he can do for us, regardless where the market has him "ranked". The guy who can improve our ground game is the guy who can be as effective as or MORE effective than BGE, but without requiring as much in extra blocking resources as BGE has. And, yeah, the objective would be to get a guy like that and have him carry the ball 20-25 times a game - again, regardless whether he comes from the 1st round or the 4th or is another UDFA.

While it's a fact that RBs who contribute and even excel (without requiring a lot of extra blocking resources) HAVE come from all rounds of the draft and from among UDFAs, they really do represent a far smaller percentage of ALL RBs acquired in late rounds and post-draft than do successful RBs as a percentage of ALL RBs taken earlier. I know that's a "truism" and I loathe agreeing with "truisms" generally, but it does seem to be the case.

 

[Fencer]

What's the benefit of taking someone round 1 unless that guy is going to carry the ball 25 times a day.

I don't agree that's the way to measure it.

Rather, how many snaps will he get, whether or not he gets the carry? If he's a threat to run, he's having an effect too.

 

[Peachhead]

Delone Carter, Syracuse (if the background check is OK) or Bilal Powell, Louisville in the 4th or Vai Taua, Nevada in the 6th.

Fred Taylor's basically gone. But he was rarely healthy and 3rd or 4th string anyway. So it's not like he leaves a gaping hole.

I'm not in favor of using a high pick on an RB unless our need is very high and it isn't, so that pretty much rules out Ingram. Daniel Thomas reminds me way too much of Maroney (too much east-west running not enough north-south, indecisive). Leshoure needs a few carries to get into a rhythm. With our pass-heavy system, RBBC by committee and O'Brien's occasional penchant for changing things up when they don't need changing Leshoure would get benched and labeled a bust. And many of the other guys are 3rd-down back types and we already have one or two (if Faulk returns) of the best in the league.

 

[dryheat44]

I'm not in favor of using a high pick on an RB unless our need is very high and it isn't...

That's pretty much the thing, isn't it? I don't see the value of Ingram or Leshoure in the late-first, early-second area for this team and passing up linemen. I don't see what they bring us that we can't get from Vereen in the late third, Carter in the 4th-5th, or Alex Green even later. I also think that Green-Ellis is really a good enough lead back for this offense and don't see anything out there that is going to be an improvement over him as a workhorse back. Improving our offensive line will go much further in improving our offense than replacing our running back(s).

 

[Fencer]

Remember:

For an RB to consistently get on the field, he has to be able to contribute on passing plays, and not just as a play-action decoy. It is highly desirable that he be able to pass block. Being a credible receiver is a plus too, although even Dillon-level is probably good enough (and by the way, I have distinct memories of Dillon beating an LB covering him with a double move).

Based on that, who other than Ingram could consistently get on the field?

 

[DW Toys]

The positions where we have 100% coverage with "special" players are:

• QB
• K
• P, if one's a little optimistic about the youngster
• TE, if one's a little optimistic about the youngsters in general and more than a little optimistic about Hernandez' blocking
• NT, if one judges that it doesn't matter that Wilfork shouldn't play ever snap
• ILB if one's very confident about Spikes
• S if one's very optimistic about both the Pro Bowler and Chung

At any position where there isn't 100% coverage with special players, the right guy can be worth a pick.

If you say OLB is an issue on this Team, then Safety is as well. Our Safeties do not cover. You know the stats. 31st in the league passing yards against and last at getting of the field on third down. We were 14th in sacks.... not great. It is more of timing to get a sack when you need to. Can a single pass rusher move us out of the cellar on those two stats? Help.... yes. Eliminate....no. The OLB/Rushers are not coming here to cover.

Our needs are:
OLB/Pass rusher. (Obviously TBC is replaceable. Ninc and Cunningham are just O.K.)

Interior O lineman.(Two Guards and a Center preferred for depth)

WR. (Well documented. How does Felger and all the Moss naysayers like their crow? BBQ or broiled. I love the smurfs but we were exposed big time. We need length)

Safety in coverage.(Major issue and need. We sit we get burnt again. We were awful last year. They say the QBs had too much time. Look at the completion stat. Over 68% for our DBs versus our MVP QB had 66%. That is not just pass rush Cousins. Closer coverage and the QB can't cherry pick the most open route and he gets sacked. Both items need to improve)

NT (To move inside when VW is playing end and as depth.)

OT (depth or starter if Light and Kaczur leave)

RB (Love our tandem but I am a little concerned the yards were not dominating time yards. A lot of third and long running yards when teams look for a Brady pass. A fell time starter that can play three downs and finish out a game. I don't believe BGE can do that.)

DE (We have nine DEs on the roster. Injuries non withstanding I don't think that is need in the top five of needs)
DW Toys

 

[WhiZa]

S if one's very optimistic about both the Pro Bowler and Chung

Safety is deceiving considering that Meriweather, Sanders, and Page are all coming into contract years. I would consider it a need if the Pats want to cover themselves from having a major problem at safety next year.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I just posted this on another forum, so I'll duplicate it here. I like this year's class a lot. Of course, the early rounds are full of excellent players such as Ingram, Williams, Hunter, etc, but the mid to late rounds are where my favorite players show up.

Mid to late round options I really like include Damien Berry, Bilal Powell, Delone Carter, Mario Fannin, Shane Vareen, Allen Bradford, Johnny White, Da'rel Scott, and Roy Helu Jr.


Damien Berry 5'11 214 4.44


A converted safety, Berry plays as physically as I've seen at the position in the past few years. Has a devastating jump cut. He just never gives up. Runs, catches, blocks, plays special teams--he's a hard working, team player whom I would love to have on this team. He's the kind of player who is still running for his life after being knocked out of bounds--it's not that he's unaware of where he is on the field, but he plays with so much fire that I know he's still thinking about that first down, that touchdown, that victory for the team.

YouTube - Damien Berry Miami Hurricanes - Run This Town (Canefreak2001)

Also, he swordfights! YouTube - Damien Berry and Jared Campbell swordfight


Bilal Powell 5'11 207 4.47

A high character player with a rough background and a touching redemption story, Powell runs as though every carry is his last. He's sudden, instinctive, and surprisingly powerful for his build. On some plays, he looks like a mini Adrian Peterson the way he throws off tacklers, breaks down aggressively in space, and then rockets down the sideline as though his life depends on it. He's an acceptable pass catcher, although he needs to refine his skills, and he is at least a willing blocker. Will need better technique at the next level, but a player I feel offers an excellent counterpoint to Woody & the Law Firm.

YouTube - Bilal Powell vs. Cincinnati (2010)

YouTube - Bilal Powell midseason highlights


Delone Carter 5'9 222 4.49

Compact, powerful runner with good balance and a developing sense of how to use his momentum as a weapon. A real no nonsense type of runner. Can pass protect and catch the football. My only concern is that he often simply leans into contact instead of exploding into tacklers; he's already hard to bring down, but when he lowers his shoulder with authority, he almost always knocks the defender over. To his credit, he keeps his legs churning, and fights hard for his team.

YouTube - Delone Carter vs. Louisville (2010)

YouTube - Delone Carter 2010 Syracuse


Mario Fannin 5'10 231 4.37

Tantalizing from a size/speed perspective, Fannin will nonetheless go later than his measureables indicate due to losing carries each year to incoming freshmen and occasionally putting the ball on the ground. While he's not the most instinctive of inside runners, he is more than adequate in a rotation. His real value, however, is as a pass blocker and pass catcher; he is the best back in blitz pickup I have watched in a few years, and he has good enough hands and route running ability that Auburn lined him up wide at times and he beat cornerbacks for the ball. Often lined up as an H-back. Has almost 100 career catches and nine receiving touchdowns for his career, and is absolutely explosive in open space, capable of running by, around, or through most defenders. I love his upside, especially if he can hang onto the ball and develop more discipline running inside. Do yourself a favor and watch a good chunk of his highlights--they're a lot of fun.

YouTube - Mario Fannin footage


Shane Vareen 5'10 210 4.45

Another guy who's a lot of fun to watch, Vareen is a tough, elusive runner who is more of a slasher than a burner, but has experience in a pro offense and really works hard at his craft. Is far stronger than he looks and can be particularly difficult to bring down. Has a will to win. Can run, catch, block, and is productive in the return game as well. Gritty and well rounded, would make an excellent Patriot.

YouTube - Shane Vereen 2009 Highlights

YouTube - Shane Vereen Cal Highlights


Allen Bradford 5'10 240 4.53

Despite playing in a committee, Bradford was productive. He really played well when he got carries the past two years, putting up 5.8 and 7.2 ypc averages and roughly 700 and 800 yard seasons. He only got the ball about 110 times each of the last two years, but he improved remarkably this year in running between the tackles and following his blockers. He runs people over, is an absolute load to bring down at 240 pounds, and has decent hands despite only 14 career receptions. He's one of my favorite late round guys, because it seems to me like he's finally maturing as a person and a player, and the best is yet to come. Just watch the difference between the first clip and the second one; there's more power, less hesitation, and better production on the same number of carries:

YouTube - USC RB #21 Allen Bradford Highlights 2009

YouTube - USC RB #21 Allen Bradford Highlights 2010


Johnny White 5'10 210 4.51

Forget the average workout numbers numbers; White is dynamite. He's played defense, offense, and led the team in special team tackles. Read the excellent write-up in the YouTube video description to know more. Can't recommend this guy enough. He's be awesome for us. (I suggest skipping the first 50 seconds of the clip, as it has some technical difficulties; thereafter, White is pretty impressive.)

YouTube - Universal Draft Presents RB Johnny White of North Carolina


Da'rel Scott 5'11 211 4.34

Probably the fastest back in this year's class, Scott is a bit more linear than I prefer at the position, but still has a nice blend of size, speed, and slipperiness. Yes, he can make people miss, but I think he needs more space to operate than some of the other back on this list. Still, he catches the ball well, and is deadly on draws and screens. Good overall player.

YouTube - Da'Rel Scott Highlights 2010

YouTube - Da'Rel Scott vs. Cal (2009)


Roy Helu Jr. 6'0 220 4.41

Another high character guy, Helu will give everything he has to a team. He's dependable, hard-working, and will do his job. Has excellent size and speed, and can run with authority. Is not good at evading tacklers in the backfield, but once he hits the line of scrimmage, he's a bear to bring down. A poor man's Ingram in style of play, with more speed and big-play potential, but less elusiveness. Like this guy a lot; I feel that he has a lot to offer in the locker room that transcends his purely football talents, and I would love to see him on the Patriots.

YouTube - Roy Helu jr vs Missouri 2010

YouTube - Roy Helu Jr #10 - "Running Roy (Helu, Goodbye)"

YouTube - Roy Helu Jr

 

[Spiral]

IMO, we need a thumper--someone who can get two yards on 3rd and 2, not five yards on 3rd and 8. We've got enough of those guys.

 

[bucky]

According to this article, Mark Ingram gained almost 1100 yards after contact in 2009. Just thought I'd through that out there.

Breaking down Mark Ingram | National Football Post

 

[MaineMan]

IMO, we need a thumper--someone who can get two yards on 3rd and 2, not five yards on 3rd and 8. We've got enough of those guys.

Actually, according to FootballOutsiders, we were 8th best in the league last season at doing just that - getting yards on 3rd-and-two. We converted those situations at a 68% rate.

The teams ahead if us were:

#1 - MIA - 83%
#2 - NY JETS - 76%
#3 - Philly - 76%
#4 - CLE - 74%
#5 - ARZ - 73%
#6 - MIN - 70%
#7 - NO - 70%

We were also 4th best at avoiding getting stuffed (runs for zero or negative yardage). We were 6th best at getting yardage to the LB level.

So, our power running/short yardage was really very good.

However, we were 23rd in the league at getting rushing yards past the LB level (Open Field Yards). In the FO analysis of the rankings in these various categories, a team with a high ranking in the first three (like us) and a low ranking in Open Field Yards (like us) is heavily dependent on its O-line/blockers to make the running game work.

Seems to me THAT's what must change.

Interesting side note - we played 6 games last season against teams in the top seven in this rushing category. Our three losses came against the #2 and #4 teams. Not that run defense matters at all in this "passing league".

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think that BJGE is already a thumper. He may not be on the Shonn Greene level, but he runs with some power. I worry about Bilal Powell's fumbleitis. That would surely land him a permanent seat on the bench with a coach like BB. I think Vereen offers us the best mix of value and versatility. His pass catching ability and big play running ability are a good complement to BJGE who's more of a ground and pound guy. He better be good at pass protection though to become a true asset for our offense.

I still love woodhead as our 3rd down back, and he's a willing blocker but at times he's just too small to really handle some of the blitzers coming at him. Anyways Vereen would be another weapon in the quiver for Brady. I'd consider him in the late 2nd or early 3rd. If we took him with Minny's pick, we'd be turning a 34 year old Moss into a 22 year old Vereen. Not a bad way to get younger.

 

[Water Boy]

I like Shane Vereen with pick No. 92. I think he would be the slasher compliment to Benny-the-Bell-Cow and Danny-the-Smurf.

 

[meggett]

Ive always been a fan of Nic Grigsby. Obviously, not on the level of Ingram, ect. But anybody have any analysis of the guy. When i watched him play he always came up making big plays and moving the chains. hes not a thumper though, i think hes like 5'10 210. but as far as late round value, hes a guy to keep in mind....in my opinion at least.

 

[Fencer]

BJGE excelled in TD and fumble stats. He's not notable for his speed.

Yeah, power runner could be his niche.

Or he could just be living proof our OL was underrated.