What Last Night Proved

[QuantumMechanic]

I don't think they have to win out: if they win in Denver Sunday its almost in the bag. The Jets already mailed it in the Miami game might be an Extra Bye week if we win our next two. I don't want the Miami game being a Must win Game then I would worry. Again if the Pats win in Denver I think they clinch a Bye and the Jets Game will be for HFA throughout.

If they beat either DEN or NYJ then they may not have to win any other games depending on what happens in the AFCW.

Right now KC has the tiebreaker over OAK. If NE beats either DEN or NYJ then NE will clinch the common-opponents tiebreaker over KC. So if KC wins the AFCW at 12-4 and NE also finishes at 12-4 with the win coming over DEN or NYJ then NE gets the #1 seed. Likewise if KC wins the AFCW at 13-3 and NE finishes at 13-3 (if NE finishes 13-3 then they must have won at least one of the DEN or NYJ games).

But if OAK wins the AFCW (I don't know what it takes for OAK to get the tiebreaker back from KC) then NE needs to have a better outright record than OAK and so would have to win out if OAK wins out.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

No, not necessarily. If Oak and NE are tied at the end of the season, Oak has the tie breaker. We have to hope for another Oakland loss. Interestingly enough, if NE, KC and Oak are tied at 13-3 then NE gets the tiebreaker.

Technically NE, KC, and OAK cannot tie at 13-3 because only one of OAK and KC would win the AFCW, so NE would only be in a 2-way tie with AFCW winner. Though you are correct that NE gets the #1 if all three teams are 13-3: if KC and OAK both win out then KC will win the AFCW. We'll clinch the common-opp tiebreaker over KC by beating either DEN or NYJ. And if NE finishes 13-3 it had to have beaten one of those two teams.

 

[FourierSeries]

HFA is a must. I think if Pats get 2 of the last 3, it will clinch it for them.

If they have a solid outing next week @ Denver, I will feel really good about them. Baltimore was a good test, but Denver is better than them. Before last night Pats have been playing pretty bad teams.

Denver is most certainly not a better team than Baltimore at this point in time. Denver got off to a better start than Baltimore did, but that was mostly due to Baltimore being fairly beat up to start the season. They've gotten healthier and having been playing better in recent weeks, meanwhile, Denver has looked like utter dog **** since their 4-0 start. Baltimore has a better overall defense, they've got a much better offense, and they've got better coaching.

If this team plays like they did vs Baltimore minus the Cyrus Jones errors, it will be a very comfortable victory.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

If the Chiefs and Raiders win out, we can lose one game and still get home field advantage.

Yes exactly. We have the three way tie breaker with Oakland and KC. Two way tiebreaker with Oak goes to Oak.

 

[mosi]

Lets not forget one thing. As Bill Parcell said, you are what your record says you are. The Ravens are a 7-5 team (now a 7-6 team). The Patriots are a 10-2 (now a 11-2) team. Maybe we built them up too much. The Raiders and Chefs maybe a much bigger challenge.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

No, not necessarily. If Oak and NE are tied at the end of the season, Oak has the tie breaker. We have to hope for another Oakland loss. Interestingly enough, if NE, KC and Oak are tied at 13-3 then NE gets the tiebreaker.

Can there even be a three way tie that way? I was under the impression the only way that could happen would be if the three teams were from three different divisions. The first tie breaker is to decide the division champion so once that is decided the tie breaker is between either NE-Oak or NE-KC to decide seeding or HFA... and the loser in the divisional tie breaker ( Oak or KC) obviously is the wild card...Essentially hope for KC to win the division under that scenario.

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

 

[ivanvamp]

Lets not forget one thing. As Bill Parcell said, you are what your record says you are. The Ravens are a 7-5 team (now a 7-6 team). The Patriots are a 10-2 (now a 11-2) team. Maybe we built them up too much. The Raiders and Chefs maybe a much bigger challenge.

Here's the thing about that. Every "big" game the Patriots play, we talk about how dangerous that opponent is. Playing Houston (when healthy) and they had to deal with Arian Foster and Andre Johnson and JJ Watt and Clowney, etc. And then the Pats would crush them and we'd all say that, in retrospect, Houston sucks.

Playing KC and they had to deal with the fast running backs and Kelce and Justin Houston and the ferocious Chiefs defense. And then the Pats would crush them and we'd all say that, in retrospect, KC isn't that good.

Playing Baltimore and the Ravens are a bit of an antidote to the Pats, that Mike Wallace and Steve Smith would push our corners, and Pitta would be a tough matchup, and the Ravens' D was the best in the league. And then the Pats handled them and we'll all say that, in retrospect, Baltimore isn't very good.

Playing Pittsburgh, dealing with Big Ben and Brown and Bell and their defense. And then the Pats would pound them and we'd all say that, in retrospect, they always kill Pittsburgh so why were we worried?

And on and on it goes. Very rarely do we hype a team as being a very stiff challenge for the Patriots and, if the Patriots indeed handle them easily, come away impressed. We usually talk about how that other team turned out to not be very good after all.

Listen, winning ANY game in the NFL is hard. We've seen top-level Patriots teams lose to crappy opponents, because in the NFL, if you have a bad game, you can lose to anyone. For real. It would be nice to face a tough opponent, win big, and then say, holy smokes, the Pats looked incredible against a terrific team. Maybe we're just.....really, really good?

 

[NashuaPats]

If I stay healthy and get home field advantage, we make it to SB.

Maybe this was a typo, but just to be safe, I think we need to stash you in this room until the SB.

 

[FCB02062]

Last night changed my opinion of this team. FINALLY they stopped an at least decent offense and put together drives Vs a good D. They also got some chunk plays, something that had been missing.
Maybe Belichick was right about Collins....seems to be at lot fewer stuff wide open down the middle andseem....perhaps van noy and whoever else is in Collins stead are doing their job and not freelancing...

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Can there even be a three way tie that way? I was under the impression the only way that could happen would be if the three teams were from three different divisions. The first tie breaker is to decide the division champion so once that is decided the tie breaker is between either NE-Oak or NE-KC to decide seeding or HFA... and the loser in the divisional tie breaker ( Oak or KC) obviously is the wild card...Essentially hope for KC to win the division under that scenario.

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

You are correct. It's sort of a three way tie, but not really since there can only be one AFCW winner as you said. If NE, Oak and KC all end up at 13-3, then NE wins the 1 seed. KC would get the 2 seed as the AFCW champion and Oak would get the 5 seed. So it's both a 3-way tie (record wise) and 2-way tie (between division winners).

 

[50-yard-line]

HFA is a must. I think if Pats get 2 of the last 3, it will clinch it for them.

If they have a solid outing next week @ Denver, I will feel really good about them. Baltimore was a good test, but Denver is better than them. Before last night Pats have been playing pretty bad teams.

Denver is nowhere near better than Baltimore right now. I make it a point to watch the Donkeys almost every week. Semian is hobbled and isn't making good decisions. People always seem to judge QBs on their arm alone, but as bad as Manning's was last couple of years, he's Tom Brady in recognition skills and so almost always had the right play on. Demarius Thomas is still very good, but he's not the guy he was a couple of years ago. They have no blocking TE and no CJ Anderson.

Their offense is really not good. Nowhere near as good as Baltimore's.

Their Defense is still really good, but not THAT much better than Baltimore's. They are great against the pass, not so much against the run. The way Mason and Thuney are playing, and with that 3-headed monster behind them, Denver will have to bring up Ward and more or get run over.

That said, it's in Denver, so yeah, it's another big test.

 

[Ring 6]

Denver is nowhere near better than Baltimore right now. I make it a point to watch the Donkeys almost every week. Semian is hobbled and isn't making good decisions. People always seem to judge QBs on their arm alone, but as bad as Manning's was last couple of years, he's Tom Brady in recognition skills and so almost always had the right play on. Demarius Thomas is still very good, but he's not the guy he was a couple of years ago. They have no blocking TE and no CJ Anderson.

Their offense is really not good. Nowhere near as good as Baltimore's.

Their Defense is still really good, but not THAT much better than Baltimore's. They are great against the pass, not so much against the run. The way Mason and Thuney are playing, and with that 3-headed monster behind them, Denver will have to bring up Ward and more or get run over.

That said, it's in Denver, so yeah, it's another big test.

Denver is very bad against the run and if we have success running the ball brady will rip that pass d apart just like he did last night.