We're On To Jacksonville

[RIpats88]

I understand not wanting to overlook your opponent, but Blake Bortles coming into Foxboro and beating the patriots would be a bigger upset than the Titans beating the patriots. At the same time, JAX has a winning record in pittsburgh. so there is history for success there..

anyways, I think I see how the patriots will attack this game. Similar to every time brady has faced a top defense. they will spread them out with running backs and tight ends and brady will find the mismatch. Jax is also not very good against the run so Dion Lewis should have some lanes.

On defense you have to stop the run and keep bortles in the pocket. If you take away the running game and make Bortles have to make reads in 3rd and long their offense will falter. It will be similar gameplan as against the titans. Except mariota is a much better QB

 

[Pats1989]

Patriots open as 8.5 point favorites.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I understand not wanting to overlook your opponent, but Blake Bortles coming into Foxboro and beating the patriots would be a bigger upset than the Titans beating the patriots. At the same time, JAX has a winning record in pittsburgh. so there is history for success there..

anyways, I think I see how the patriots will attack this game. Similar to every time brady has faced a top defense. they will spread them out with running backs and tight ends and brady will find the mismatch. Jax is also not very good against the run so Dion Lewis should have some lanes.

On defense you have to stop the run and keep bortles in the pocket. If you take away the running game and make Bortles have to make reads in 3rd and long their offense will falter. It will be similar gameplan as against the titans. Except mariota is a much better QB

Why would that be a bigger upset. JAX has a better offense, defense, record, playoff seeding, and went further in the playoffs. They are the better team in almost every measurable way.

 

[BobDigital]

I understand not wanting to overlook your opponent, but Blake Bortles coming into Foxboro and beating the patriots would be a bigger upset than the Titans beating the patriots. At the same time, JAX has a winning record in pittsburgh. so there is history for success there..

anyways, I think I see how the patriots will attack this game. Similar to every time brady has faced a top defense. they will spread them out with running backs and tight ends and brady will find the mismatch. Jax is also not very good against the run so Dion Lewis should have some lanes.

On defense you have to stop the run and keep bortles in the pocket. If you take away the running game and make Bortles have to make reads in 3rd and long their offense will falter. It will be similar gameplan as against the titans. Except mariota is a much better QB

The Jags beating the Patriots would be a smaller upset than the Titans beating the Patriots. It's not just the QB. The Jags are a much better team than the Titans. In the end the Titans were fairly average talent wise but feisty. The Jags have a bunch of top talent.

As for how the Patriots will attack this D I'd say you're mostly right. I would only add the Jags are not a horrible run D. They don't shut teams down running but if our plan is to run 40 times that is a bad plan. We won't score enough.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

The RBs will be our aces in this matchup.

 

[drewskie]

The RBs will be our aces in this matchup.

Expect some new 2 RB looks that we have not showed much of on tape this year.

 

[Pats1989]

This isn't as good of a good matchup for the Patriots compared to Pittsburgh.

 

[HailHydra]

Ahhhh

We like put up 41 points on that historical Broncos defense this year.

How exactly do you come on a thread like this and actually state this after the defense in question just gave up 42 points and 550 yards?

....and the superior Patriots offense will not score?

Seriously, this has got to be the most stupid post since that 2014 idiot early season.

The Broncos defense was historical a few years ago, I never said anything about this season. The fact remains that the Patriots really struggled against that defense (in 2013 and 2015) - and that Broncos D had similarities to the Jaguars D that we see now in terms of a stout secondary and excellent pass rush. Furthermore, this Jaguars D is allowing less than 30 yards passing per game than the Broncos did (while holding opponents to a 10 pt lower passer rating), while being around 30 yards worse in rushing - which goes to show you the potency of this defense. This Jaguars defense has pro-bowl and All-Pro players across that defense, which to me makes it scary.

Just for reference, in the 2015 AFC Championship game, the Patriots had 310 yds passing with a 56.4 passer rating, 44 rushing yards, etc.

And its crucial to remember that the Jaguars defense let up 28 points until the last 4 minutes of the game when yards were coming in chunks due to the nature of the defensive coverages. Would I count a last second TD (quite literally) to be a difference between letting up 35 points or letting up 42 pts? Furthermore, the yard count more so reflects the shootout nature of the game rather than being an indicator of a Jacksonville Defense. Obviously when the scoreboard crosses a certain threshold, there's going to be yards piling up, as compared to a 13-10 game. In the end, all that matters was that the Jacksonville D was opportunistic, scored 7 pts of their own, and created turnovers/stops that led to their offense being able to put points on their board.

I won't say that the Patriots won't put any points on the board. They will. However, this will be the hardest matchup they have faced this season and one that the opponent could easily take at Gillette if the Patriots don't bring their A+ game on offense and A game on defense.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Forgot that we had joint practices with Jacksonville this summer. Wonder how much scouting BB was able to sneak in then.

Also, liked this note from BSJ:

3. On the other side, we’re big fans of Football Outsiders and DVOA when it comes to figuring out good defenses. A check of their 2017 metrics reveals that the Jacksonville defense is really good at pretty much everything defensively, but one area that has been an occasional issue for them is at tight end. The Jags are 20th in the league when it comes to slowing tight ends, allowing an average of six catches and 44 yards per game. But the rest of their pass defense is really good — Jacksonville is first against No. 1 receivers, eighth against No. 2 receivers and 15th against backs. In the context of this conversation, it’s worth noting that in his one career game against the Jags, Rob Gronkowski had four catches for 101 yards in a Week 3 win back in 2015.

 

[HailHydra]

We are going to destroy this team.
They are one of the 5 best matchups for us in the NFL.
B.B. will send bortles to a rubber room. B.B. defensive philosophy makes a guy like bortles worse than he normally is. We will take away fournette just like Henry.
Offensively Brady will pick them apart and we will run well. The offense only needs to score 17 anyway.

Don't go jinxing it. Brady's always struggled against defenses like the one in Jacksonville, Bortles has been playing just as well as he needs to over the last few games, and their running game is excellent. Remember, our defense isn't significantly better than Pittsburgh's defense and they let up 38 (fumble 6) to Jacksonville. It certainly isn't one of the best matchups for us in the NFL - I would contend its one of the worst. The Patriots should hopefully win this game but don't be surprised when its a very close game.

 

[FourierSeries]

our defense isn't significantly better than Pittsburgh's defense

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

So when is the superbowl?

Date please!

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Jeff Howe‏ @jeffphowe 1m1 minute ago
Pats-Jags, Sunday at 3:05.

So I'm out shopping at Target this afternoon, and in the A/V section I notice that not one of the 100 TV's there is tuned in to the NFL game. I mention this to the guy at the department counter, and he says "Can't show broadcasts. Not since 9/11."

"...because 9/11's happen all the time..."

"Corporate decision."

"Well, the next time there's a 9/11, they'll be ready for it!"

"Geniuses."

"Yup, next 9/11 or Ford Bronco chase, you better make sure you're not shopping at Target or you'll never see or know what happened..."

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The RBs will be our aces in this matchup.

On booth runs and short passing game. Next week is going to be fun!

 

[HailHydra]

Wut. The Jaguars defense is not good as that Broncos defense back in 2015, who by the way were easily top 3 best defense in NFL History. Go home. You're drunk.

when did you see the broncos of 2013 or 2015 give up 40+ points? that D was way better than this Jags team.

uh those denver teams never gave up 42 points

Brady shredded a seahawks defense much better than this jags D in the superbowl 2014. and Bortles isnt russell wilson

Stats Time!!
2017 Jaguars 2015 Broncos
Total Yardage 286.1 yds --- 283.1 yds
Points / Game 16.8 --- 18.5
First Downs 257 --- 289
Interceptions 22 --- 14
Fumbles 20 --- 16
Sacks 55 --- 52
3rd Down 31.6% --- 35.2%
Opponent Pass Rat. 68.5 --- 78.8

To respond to the Seahawks comment: It's important to note that the Patriots offense (not just Brady) was far from perfect that game. Brady threw 2 picks along with his 4 TDs and the running game failed to get going. I wouldn't consider that to be shredding the Seahawks defense, but getting the job done.

 

[Absurdly Metro]

I think the Pats can beat this team but I also think based on today you just dont know for sure....I think a slow start by NE would be hazardous.

I thought I saw a graphic during the Pit-Jax game showing Jax as being a great 1st quarter scoring team. So I agree that a fast start would be good this week.

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[letekro]

I wish they didn’t have Malik Jackson. He is a major pest. One question I had—it doesn’t look like they rotate their linemen that much and Dareus and Campbell are big boys. If they don’t, it seems like the hurry up would be a good weapon.

 

[RIpats88]

This isn't as good of a good matchup for the Patriots compared to Pittsburgh.

thats just crazy talk because the Jags won the game. Defensively sure...but would you rather scheme for blake bortles/fournette....or big ben/ab84 and those wR's who scored 3 TD's on 3rd or 4th down bombs?