We're On To Jacksonville

[Ivan]

Top rated should strongly correlate with top in yards allowed - if there's a team you see in my stats that you would disagree with, please feel free to share. More so, its more accurate to consider what that defense was ranked over the course of 16 games rather than just looking at the defensive ranks until the Patriots played that team - either way there shouldn't be serious differences. Instead of trying to find some avenue to argue, maybe you could actually see that Brady has been struggling recently against teams who had #1 defenses over the course of the season - 2015 Broncos were a key example as were last year's Texans. I didn't cherry pick any of the games, I went on ESPN, looked at the rankings of the yards allowed per defense, saw when the Patriots played the top teams (if we at all did), and looked at the stats for those games. You asked for how Brady played against #1 defenses, I gave it to you. Don't be sore since the stats don't match up to the 3-1 - which includes 2 wins from 01, 04. Furthermore, Brady struggled against the Ravens, Steelers, and Texans most recently when they did have that #1 defense. I could care less about Brady beating the Texans now when they have one of the league's worst defenses that isn't similar to last year's. I don't get why it's so hard for you to say that Jacksonville will be a game in which the Patriots actually have to struggle, but we'll see when Sunday arrives.

Your argument is that Brady struggles against good defenses, yet he is by far the winningest quarterback in postseason history. I guess good defenses just don’t make it to the postseason. And his record against the top rated defense at that time is 3-1, period.

Go troll somewhere else.

 

[Triumph]

Special teams will be a factor in this game. Even if the NE offense is held in check, you know how important BB deems special teams. It could very well be the difference between winning and losing.

The Jags have had ST issues. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Flying under the radar is the # 1 RB in the NFL - Lewis FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2017 I fully expect the Jags to play tight coverage like in Pittsburgh and make Brady hold the ball. Establishing the NE run will be key.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I honestly think this Jags team defense would shut down our offense from past seasons but not this current one. Their d line has pure power from guys like Campbell, Malik Jackson, Dareus, etc but our oline has pass protected like champs lately. We don't have a clear weak spot like Kline and we have more passing options than most years. No defense has completely shutdown Gronk or Dion Lewis.

I also believe our loss against Miami prepared us for this upcoming game. They shut us down most of the game and showcased Cooks' limitations.

As for the Jags offense. Its bad and consists of more rollouts than I have ever seen. I haven't seen too many Jags games but their offense seems to go through Fornette and Lee. I think our D is capable of shutting them out if we play them the way we did the titans.

 

[livinginthe past]

Some thoughts on the JAX match-up:

1. JAX much-heralded front 4 did very little against Pittsburgh - the DE run themselves out of the play on almost every passing down - they managed to loop back to Ben a couple of times simply because he took so long to throw the ball.

2. The DTs were not as imposing as I thought they'd be - Calais Campbell has been a stud all year but Ben seemed to have as much space to step up in the pocket as he wanted on Sunday.

3. JAX is young, talented and dumb on defence. They carry the same swagger that the Seahawks do but are at least likely to make an undisciplined play or 5 - they do not tackle well after the catch - which should be a major red flag against a YAC team like the Patriots.

4. Their DB's were victimised by some all-world TD catches - I don't think any team is going to replicate so many circus catches in one game - the DBs were in skin-tight coverage on each one. Props to Ben for great throws and the receivers for great catches.

5. Make no mistake, Bortles is the worst QB left in the field. Even the passes he completed showed a guy without a natural touch - constantly throwing behind open WRs - his touch on shorter passes borders on the comical at times. And all of this was with the Steelers generating close to zero pass rush - that won't be the case against the Patriots.

6. Fournette has been a stud this year (even after his ridiculous 'this game is easy' comments after the Patriots preseason game) but he was majorly hobbled after his injury vs Pittsburgh. Couldn't quite work out what the problem was - did he go over on his ankle?

7. JAX have made many of the ballsy underdog calls they needed to, in order to get this far. They are brave on 4th down consistently and I thought they did a great job on the first series of getting Bortles settled down through a series of PA passes. it must be said that, as well as generating no pass rush, the Steelers were largely dismal at covering the shorter dump off routes. I think the Patriots will be much, much better in this area.

8. The coaching match-up is just as one sided in favor of the Patriots as it was against the Titans

9. Looking foward to getting our swiss army knife, Burkhead, back - he can do a lot of damage from many areas - he can run some Edelman stuff from the slot (huge value) and carries the ball with good power and vision (esp in the RZ).

10. Dion Lewis has been amazing. We've had quite a few slow starts this year - it's great to have such a multi-talented RB to get us rolling when the passing game isn't quite in-sync. Have to say, hype or not, he reminds me ALOT of Marshall Faulk with ability to run, catch and make people miss.

 

[Mike the Brit]

While the Jags aren't the 07 or 11 Giants, can you not agree that they have a very good front 4 in Campbell, Dareus, Jackson and Ngakoue?

The Jags LBers of Posluzny, Jack, and Smith aren't pushovers. And one could argue that they are better than the LBs the Giants had either year.

The CB tandem of Ramsey and Bouye is one of the best in the league. Colvin is an average CB as their #3.

The questions come at their safeties in Gibson and Church. Gibson may not be healthy. Church is a journeyman.

I've said this is going to be a tough game. Nothing more.

Marrone and Wash will have their hands full planning for Brady and the Patriots, but i would not be surprised if they reviewed the 07 and 11 SBs to see how the Giants D-line beat the Pats O-line with Twists and Stunts by the DEs and some late blitzes.

Now, people will say those teams aren't the same as this one. No they're not. What is the same, though, is that our Interior Linemen have had issue picking them up. Much the way the Pats interior did back in 07 and 11.

Would I expect BB and Scar to make this a focus? Sure. Will it prevent it from working? We'll have to see.

The thing that worries me about the Jags offense is that it reminds me very much of the 2001-2004 Pats offense where Brady's favorite receiver was "the open man". Bortles hit 9 different receivers yesterday. During the regular season, he hit 17 different receivers. 11 of those 17 receivers caught a TD pass.

Now, this is not me saying that Bortles = Brady. It's me saying that the number of different receivers making catches reminds me of that time in Pats history.

Fournette, Yeldon and Ivory can all catch out of the backfield. They may not be a shifty or flashy as White, Lewis and Burkhead, but they can do it, as seen by their 87 receptions for 701 yards on the year. By comparison, the Pats had 118 receptions for 897 yards. So this will be a test for our LBs.

I'm looking forward to an entertaining game.

Excellent post, DaBruinz. Thanks!

My 0.02$ -- it's all about Fournette. In the first half against Pittsburgh: 12 carries for 82 yards. In the second, 13 for 27.

Given what the injury looked like and how much pain he was in, it's extraordinary he came back at all. Of course, this is the time that teams give their star players whatever "deer antler spray" they can find to get them playing. If Fournette is able to play without restriction, I think this will be a close, tough game. If not, it might be the Titans all over again.

Leonard Fournette ankle injury will be major variable as New England Patriots prepare for Jacksonville Jaguars​

 

[Angelpats]

I also believe our loss against Miami prepared us for this upcoming game. They shut us down most of the game and showcased Cooks' limitations.

I think losing to Miami really has helped us combat tight man coverage. It carried over to the Pittsburgh game when they tried the same thing and we have more success against it and steadily we have improved our effectiveness against it. That loss may have been a blessing.

 

[goheels22002]

Are you kidding me? Their defense is not capable of "shutting down" NE. Pittsburgh put up 40 points on them. Gimme a break.

The Patriots will score on these guys, especially with Burkhead back. Unless I missed an injury on offense, Brady will have all three backs at his disposal who create so many matchup issues in both the running and passing game. Hogan's return was enormous in the Titans game. The Patriots will get their 27+ points.

I think the biggest issue is stopping a surprisingly good offense. The Patriots will scheme and adjust much better than the Steelers, but that offense looked pretty good to me. I'd like to go back and look at some analysis of the Bills - Jags game, and how the Bills held them to 10 points. The Titans beat them twice. That surpised me as well.

 

[Uptown]

“Leonard Fournette appeared in the locker room this morning with no apparent after effects from yesterday's ankle injury. Looked fine in the second half after returning and seemingly fine today.“

 

[dannydyn]

We're on to the Superbowl.

Jalen Ramsey, is that you?

 

[Deus Irae]

Looked fine in the second half after returning

No sane person who saw him play in the second half thought he looked fine.

 

[Ring 6]

Your argument is that Brady struggles against good defenses, yet he is by far the winningest quarterback in postseason history. I guess good defenses just don’t make it to the postseason. And his record against the top rated defense at that time is 3-1, period.

Go troll somewhere else.

The argument is that once in a while brady loses and in some of those games the other team had a good defense.

 

[GorBelSer]

No sane person who saw him play in the second half thought he looked fine.

Yep, kept going through the middle with 1-3 yard runs. I think he had 13 touches for 27 yards second half.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yep, kept going through the middle with 1-3 yard runs. I think he had 13 touches for 27 yards second half.

Indeed

Decoy is the wrong word, but the phrase "just try keeping them honest" comes to mind. That doesn't mean that he won't be ready for next week, but it was obvious that he was not the same type of impactful player once he returned.

 

[Kontradiction]

Indeed

Decoy is the wrong word, but the phrase "just try keeping them honest" comes to mind. That doesn't mean that he won't be ready for next week, but it was obvious that he was not the same type of impactful player once he returned.

I expect him to play this week. But I don't expect him to be anywhere near 100%. He couldn't put weight on it before going back to the locker room and getting a needle.

 

[Not Over 07]

Some thoughts on the JAX match-up:

6. Fournette has been a stud this year (even after his ridiculous 'this game is easy' comments after the Patriots preseason game) but he was majorly hobbled after his injury vs Pittsburgh. Couldn't quite work out what the problem was - did he go over on his ankle?

Looked like the injury occurred when he planted his right foot in an attempt to cut left at the end of the run. He awkwardly spun left instead in order to take the weight off the ankle.

 

[HailHydra]

Your argument is that Brady struggles against good defenses, yet he is by far the winningest quarterback in postseason history. I guess good defenses just don’t make it to the postseason. And his record against the top rated defense at that time is 3-1, period.

Go troll somewhere else.

Do I need to remind you for the 3rd time that 2 of those wins are from over a decade ago when Brady sported long hair and the TB12 method wasn't a thing?

 

[Pats1989]

Rob Parker thinks Brady will throw four picks and retire in the offseason.

 

[Ivan]

Do I need to remind you for the 3rd time that 2 of those wins are from over a decade ago when Brady sported long hair and the TB12 method wasn't a thing?

2 of the 26 playoff wins?

Great argument.

Go fondle your PFF app.

 

[Guts]

This is nothing like the 07, 11 Giants or the 15 Broncos losses. Patriots are playing at home not in a neutral field, not at Mile High, they're playing where they rarely lose. I get the comparisons to the defenses, but nobody is talking about the HFA and it's huge reason why I think the Jags have no shot at the upset.

 

[HailHydra]

2 of the 26 playoff wins?

Great argument.

Go fondle your PFF app.

Please remind me whether or not you passed the 5th grade?