Week 17: On to the Jete

[sb1]

Looks like this could be a path to #9 overall. Pats accomplished the first of their tasks.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

Ewww. Throwing a game against the jest.

Wait we might just lose.

 

[jmt57]

Looks like this could be a path to #9 overall. Pats accomplished the first of their tasks.

By my calculations there are six teams the Patriots cannot 'catch' in the race to the earliest draft pick even if they win next week while the Pats lose:
1.) 1-14 Jaguars
2.) 2-13 Jets
3.) 4-11 Falcons
4.) 4-11 Texans (traded to Miami)
5.) 4-10-1 Bengals
6.) 4-10-1 Eagles

Per the NFL Operations, "In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick."

So what benefits the Patriots the most in terms of draft slot is (a) a week 17 loss; (b) current 5-win teams with a higher SoS losing; and (c) current 6-win teams with a lower SoS winning.
The Patriots' Strength of Schedule is .533.

5-win Teams
7.) .504 Lions (vs Vikings)
8.) .506 Giants (vs Cowboys)
9.) .529 Panthers (Saints)
10.) .567 Broncos (Raiders)

The Patriots would pass the Broncos if they are tied (Denver wins plus Pats lose).
The Lions and Giants are out of reach.
As of this moment Carolina would be awarded an earlier pick than New England, but I don't know if those percentages already include their week 17 opponents. Perhaps the Saints won-loss record would be enough to make the Panthers SoS just a bit higher than the Pats?


6-Win Teams
11.) .465 Cowboys (at Giants)
12.) .490 Chargers (at Chiefs)
13.) .508 Vikings (at Lions)
14.) .533 Patriots (vs Jets)
15.) .544 49ers (vs Seahawks)
19.) .465 Washington (at Eagles)

Should any or all of the Cowboys, Chargers or Vikings win, the Pats move past them with a loss. The only way SF passes the Pats is if the Niners lose while the Pats win. Somebody has to win the NFC East, so at least one of them will be pick later then the Pats. Washington and Dallas both winning means the Pats get an earlier pick than both of them.


So it looks like what Howe is saying is either correct (#9), or within one (#10).
It is a lot of outcomes to go in the Pats favor, but it is theoretically possible.

 

[Scotty]

@jmt57 ...thanks for taking the time to lay this out. I will now take more interest in the other team scores next week

 

[Midship]

6-10 would make this season more tolerable. Only thing left to hope for is a high pick.

 

[Scotty]

Jets game.....sad to say but we could be heading for a loss. The Jets have been playing better and we have next to no offensive threat ala Bills game. Combine this with maybe BB giving the fringe players an opportunity to play we could be in trouble.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I dont see chargers or Carolina winning this week so were probably picking 11th at best if we lose. I still predict a loss, jets have been the superior team the last few weeks and Gilmore is out again, d will probably get lit up again. Its too late for finishing strong so im fine with a loss and hopefully getting closer to top 10, that makes a top tier qb much more attainable. We never had a chance at Lawrence and not sure how i feel about fields so were in decent shape.

 

[ashley]

Looks like this could be a path to #9 overall. Pats accomplished the first of their tasks.

I'm reading down the scenarios and I'm like...this can happen and then I get to the last two and I'm like ugh....Maybe KC sits players though

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Also with the jets finishing strong under darnold, that hopefully takes them out of the qb field .

 

[jmt57]

I dont see chargers or Carolina winning this week so were probably picking 11th at best if we lose. I still predict a loss, jets have been the superior team the last few weeks and Gilmore is out again, d will probably get lit up again. Its too late for finishing strong so im fine with a loss and hopefully getting closer to top 10, that makes a top tier qb much more attainable. We never had a chance at Lawrence and not sure how i feel about fields so were in decent shape.

KC is locked into the #1 seed, so who knows how focused they will be - or if they rest some starters, even though they will have the following week off.

Definitely agree on Carolina since the Saints have a lot to play for. New Orleans is #1 with a win, plus Seahawks and Packers lose - or could drop to #3 with a loss, plus Seattle wins. I can see most of the other outcomes happening.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

KC is locked into the #1 seed, so who knows how focused they will be - or if they rest some starters, even though they will have the following week off.

Definitely agree on Carolina since the Saints have a lot to play for. New Orleans is #1 with a win, plus Seahawks and Packers lose - or could drop to #3 with a loss, plus Seattle wins. I can see most of the other outcomes happening.

It’s possible, but I feel resting would be a mistake on their end having a 3 week layoff then

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Doubt that the Jete fiasco will be televised here South of Tampa. Not heading to a COVID bar to watch the Pats not contending so it's TFB, Gronk & AB on the home TV for 1PM Sunday.

 

[denverpatsfan]

I guess the JETE is better at building the proper CULTURE right now...

 

[Sciz]

This could get really rough in terms of personnel. If every player who was hurt by the end of last night's game doesn't play this week, then we're looking at a Herron, Thuney, Ferentz, Onwenu, and Eluemunor offensive line, no linebackers that are currently on the active roster, a bunch of Terrence Brooks, and probably a guy like Berry getting into the edge rotation.

 

[BelichickFan]

Have to lose this and get to around #12. We would be #3 if we had lost to Arizona and Baltimore. Blew the season in multiple ways, we can redeem a little here.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

This could be a 0-0 tied game as neither team wants to win

 

[sb1]

Pats open as 3.5 point favorites. This is basically preseason so I’d stay away if I was betting.

 

[Rob0729]

Doubt that the Jete fiasco will be televised here South of Tampa. Not heading to a COVID bar to watch the Pats not contending so it's TFB, Gronk & AB on the home TV for 1PM Sunday.

I live in Mass and I think I have watched more Buc games than Pats games this year. The Pats games have just been so bad to watch. I still root for Brady and Gronk. I wouldn't mind seeing them win a Super Bowl since the Pats ain't.

 

[BTTA]

Pats open as 3.5 point favorites. This is basically preseason so I’d stay away if I was betting.

Man. Take the Jests and the points? Is that how far this has come? Ewww.

 

[jmt57]

Doubt that the Jete fiasco will be televised here South of Tampa. Not heading to a COVID bar to watch the Pats not contending so it's TFB, Gronk & AB on the home TV for 1PM Sunday.

Week 17 is the one time they go back to the old AFL-NFL format of two early games and two late games. It's very easy to see that the Pats game will strictly be on in New England and NYC areas. You and I will be getting the Fins-Bills on channel 8. Bucs game will be on Fox at the same time.

CBS EARLY
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Miami @ Buffalo
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
NY Jets @ New England

Likewise the Baltimore and Cincinnati home tv markets will be the only ones getting the Ravens-Bengals game. All the neutral markets will probably get the Steelers-Browns (Pittsburgh being the most familiar of the four remaining teams above) rather than Miami at Buffalo.

Late game in neutral markets will be AZ-Rams on CBS. late Fox game will be split geographically.

I'll be curious to see if Fox in Boston chooses the Giants or the Bucs. Maybe Bucs in Boston and Giants for the rest of the New England Fox stations.

CBS LATE
Arizona @ LA Rams
Tennessee @ Houston
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Las Vegas @ Denver

FOX EARLY
Dallas @ NY Giants
Minnesota @ Detroit
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

FOX LATE
Green Bay @ Chicago
New Orleans @ Carolina
Seattle @ San Francisco
LA Chargers @ Kansas City

SUNDAY NIGHT
Washington @ Philadelphia