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For NFL fans the 2021 regular season has been highly entertaining, especially in the AFC. Entering Week 13 a mere three games separate the number one ranked team and #13 in the conference, and ten teams are within one game (8-6 or 7-7) of each other for four playoff spots.
www.playoffstatus.com
Playoff Status gives a good breakdown of each teams chances for each of the seven playoff berths, plus the most important games for each team and for each week.
www.espn.com
The Playoff Machine is an addictive fun application that gives results for every contending team, based on the results of upcoming games that you input.
This upcoming game is basically a title game for the AFC East. Should New England win, the Pats will have a two-game lead with two to play - and own the first tiebreaker (head-to-head). But if Buffalo wins, the Bills would own the next tiebreaker (division record) - assuming they can defeat the Falcons and Jets at home. And in many scenarios the two teams meet again in the playoffs as #3 vs #6, regardless of who wins this next game. Even in the other scenarios most often the Patriots would play in a rematch: if not Buffalo, then against the Chargers, Colts or Titans - but a Round One matchup of New England-Buffalo was the most common outcome.
The AFC North is in a similar situation, with 8-6 Baltimore at 8-6 Cincinnati. A Bengals victory gives them a series sweep over the Ravens (again, first division tiebreaker) on top of a one game lead. Cincy doesn't have a gimme in their final two games though, playing at home vs KC and then at Cleveland. Although the Ravens finish with two games, it won't be easy for them either, playing the Rams and Steelers. Even though the AFCN spent much of the season as the division with the best overall record, now it looks like there is a very good chance that just one team from that division will make it to the playoffs. Pittsburgh (at KC, vs Cleveland, at Baltimore) and the Browns (at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh, vs Cincinnati) face very long odds of getting in.
In the West the 10-4 Chiefs finish at home vs the Steelers, then play at Cincinnati and Denver. Not a tough schedule, but no pushovers either. Having won seven in a row they are due for a bad game - but they will still win the division if they finish 2-1. The Chargers would need to win at Houston, vs Denver and at Las Vegas - and also need KC to go 1-2 down the stretch to win the AFCW. However, if LAC goes 1-2 or even 2-1 to end the season, they could miss the playoffs entirely while one of Baltimore/Cincy passes them for the #7 seed. Denver needs a miracle, finishing at the Raiders, at the Chargers, and home vs KC.
In the AFC South the 8-6 Colts could conceivably finish the season on a five-game winning streak, and 8-1 in their final nine games. Indy is only a two-point underdog at Arizona, and the Cardinals are 3-4 since the end of October. After that the Colts are home vs the Raiders and at Jacksonville, both games where they will be heavily favored. It's very doubtful they don't make the playoffs. Tennessee gets the Dolphins at home and are then at Houston, so they too will surely make the playoffs - and probably win the division.
One interesting scenario (that I obviously don't want to see) is if Miami beats a virus-plagued Saints team in New Orleans on Monday, and then is able to win at Tennessee next week - combined with Buffalo defeating the Patriots. In that scenario you would have the 10-6 Pats at 9-5 Miami in the final weekend; the winner would get into the playoffs as a #7 seed (Dolphins win the tiebreaker based on season sweep) and the Patriots would miss the postseason.
AFC Playoff Picture
The AFC Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each NFL playoff spot.
www.playoffstatus.com
Playoff Status gives a good breakdown of each teams chances for each of the seven playoff berths, plus the most important games for each team and for each week.
ESPN.com's 2023 NFL Playoff Machine - Playoff Matchup Predictor
Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections.
The Playoff Machine is an addictive fun application that gives results for every contending team, based on the results of upcoming games that you input.
This upcoming game is basically a title game for the AFC East. Should New England win, the Pats will have a two-game lead with two to play - and own the first tiebreaker (head-to-head). But if Buffalo wins, the Bills would own the next tiebreaker (division record) - assuming they can defeat the Falcons and Jets at home. And in many scenarios the two teams meet again in the playoffs as #3 vs #6, regardless of who wins this next game. Even in the other scenarios most often the Patriots would play in a rematch: if not Buffalo, then against the Chargers, Colts or Titans - but a Round One matchup of New England-Buffalo was the most common outcome.
The AFC North is in a similar situation, with 8-6 Baltimore at 8-6 Cincinnati. A Bengals victory gives them a series sweep over the Ravens (again, first division tiebreaker) on top of a one game lead. Cincy doesn't have a gimme in their final two games though, playing at home vs KC and then at Cleveland. Although the Ravens finish with two games, it won't be easy for them either, playing the Rams and Steelers. Even though the AFCN spent much of the season as the division with the best overall record, now it looks like there is a very good chance that just one team from that division will make it to the playoffs. Pittsburgh (at KC, vs Cleveland, at Baltimore) and the Browns (at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh, vs Cincinnati) face very long odds of getting in.
In the West the 10-4 Chiefs finish at home vs the Steelers, then play at Cincinnati and Denver. Not a tough schedule, but no pushovers either. Having won seven in a row they are due for a bad game - but they will still win the division if they finish 2-1. The Chargers would need to win at Houston, vs Denver and at Las Vegas - and also need KC to go 1-2 down the stretch to win the AFCW. However, if LAC goes 1-2 or even 2-1 to end the season, they could miss the playoffs entirely while one of Baltimore/Cincy passes them for the #7 seed. Denver needs a miracle, finishing at the Raiders, at the Chargers, and home vs KC.
In the AFC South the 8-6 Colts could conceivably finish the season on a five-game winning streak, and 8-1 in their final nine games. Indy is only a two-point underdog at Arizona, and the Cardinals are 3-4 since the end of October. After that the Colts are home vs the Raiders and at Jacksonville, both games where they will be heavily favored. It's very doubtful they don't make the playoffs. Tennessee gets the Dolphins at home and are then at Houston, so they too will surely make the playoffs - and probably win the division.
One interesting scenario (that I obviously don't want to see) is if Miami beats a virus-plagued Saints team in New Orleans on Monday, and then is able to win at Tennessee next week - combined with Buffalo defeating the Patriots. In that scenario you would have the 10-6 Pats at 9-5 Miami in the final weekend; the winner would get into the playoffs as a #7 seed (Dolphins win the tiebreaker based on season sweep) and the Patriots would miss the postseason.
