We do not have 12 picks!

[RodThePat]

This is a pointless thread, a horrible way to look at the draft, and full of idiocy from all sides.

For those of you naming off 10 people who worked out or played from the low rounds, you do realize they are the clear minority.. right?

So yeah, Tom Brady from the sixth round really worked out. But he's just one guy. What only works out a small percentage of the time? A freakin' Hail Mary.

Some of you are embarrassing.

The Patriots arguably got more playing time and production from their low-round picks in 09 than from their second-rounders. You saying only Tom Brady and a handful of other ever worked out is what's really embarassing. Even more so considering how many guys picked in the fifth round and below are integral parts of this team.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I'm tired of hearing that we have 12 picks in the draft. Saying this implies that we might add 12 new players to the 2010 roster. We have 5 picks. 5 picks and 7 Hail Marys.

Given BB's impressive late rounds performance, I would say we have 5 picks and 7 developmental prospects.

 

[blackglass3]

If the late picks don't count, then why does everyone get up in arms when we trade a 7th rounder to some team for a player whom might or might not make the roster?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Marty Moore - Mr. Irrelevant for the Pats in 1994 had more guts and heart than talent,but because he played as hard as he could on STs he was here for several years,It was sad when he was finally cut and finished his career with the Browns.

Every team needs to find that Marty Moore type guy in the 7th round.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If the late picks don't count, then why does everyone get up in arms when we trade a 7th rounder to some team for a player whom might or might not make the roster?

Because we are competitive by nature and passionate about our team.

 

[DW Toys]

I'm tired of hearing that we have 12 picks in the draft. Saying this implies that we might add 12 new players to the 2010 roster. We have 5 picks. 5 picks and 7 Hail Marys.

Good point but don't say that too loud on this site.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

This is the stupidest thing post I've ever read, with no offense the author.

With that said, saying that the Patriots have 12 picks MAY imply to YOU that 'the Patriots' might add 12 new players to the 2010 roster and you can view that as 12 hail marys or 5 picks and 7 hail marys. What IT IS say is that there are a total of 12 opportunities out the total 255 slots to select players that are eligible in the 2010 draft.

I see the man's point. He is not saying this can't be done but his point is the odds are against it. Was not Tom Brady a Hail Mary who happened to work?
18% is all you need to figure this out Cousins for a pick that will have a productive long term NFL career. That is the success rate of an average entire NFL Draft from 1-7.12 divided by 18%=2.16 players , say three who will be good players for the Pats by 2013 if we have an average Draft. 4-5 if we hit a home run. 12? ....nope.
DW Toys

 

[eagle eye]

Good point but don't say that too loud on this site.
DW Toys

Well Tom Brady being the most obvious one, Matt Cassel, Julian Edelman, Myron Pryor, James Sanders, David Givens, Jarvis Green, TBC, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen and one or two others were all hail marys.

 

[patfanken]

Here is a list of players who were UDFAs or picked in the 5-7th rounds

OFFENSE

Welker
Neal
Koppen
Lavoir
Connolly

Defense

Woods
Guyton
Wright
Pryor
McGowan
TBC
Ninkovich
Ingram

This is off the top of my head, so it doesn't count the so called camp fodder and PS guys. These are 13 guys, most of whom have started multiple games or at least been in a regular rotation. That is 25% of your roster. So don't tell me that having picks in the late rounds are UNIMPORTANT!

Those 3 late 7th round picks will allow us to essentially have our pick of the "elite" UDFA guys. Guys we would normally have to chase and bid for and possibly LOSE to other teams.

Characterizing our draft as being 5 picks and 7 shots in the dark is unfair and inaccurate. I fully expect 2 of those last 7 picks to make this team, and history is on my side for it happening.

 

[RodThePat]

Good point but don't say that too loud on this site.
DW Toys

So the guy who says late round picks aren't important and the dude who advocates trading every single pick for a player agree on this subject. Color me surprised.

 

[jsull87]

I'm tired of hearing that we have 12 picks in the draft. Saying this implies that we might add 12 new players to the 2010 roster. We have 5 picks. 5 picks and 7 Hail Marys.

wasted 30 secs of my life... a pick is a pick just ask brady,edelman,pryor,cassel,samuels,ingram e.t.c

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

I'm tired of hearing that we have 12 picks in the draft. Saying this implies that we might add 12 new players to the 2010 roster. We have 5 picks. 5 picks and 7 Hail Marys.

How does that imply that we might add 12 new players? Having 12 picks in the draft is a fact.

If I go buy 12 scratch-off lottery tickets, am I implying that I'll win the grand prize 12 times?

I understand what you're trying to say by separating our picks, though I disagree. You're saying that we only have 5 picks that matter and after that we're just hoping. Of course, the odds get longer the later you go into the draft. We all know that. But if you look at history, some of the "Hail Marys" work out better than the five yard slants. (high picks)

Ask any Sants fan right now who they'd get rid of if they had to choose between 2006 7th rounder Marques Colston and 1st rounder Reggie Bush.

While they both start, I think 2005 7th rounder Jay Ratliff has outperformed 1st rounder Marcus Spears.

Who worked out better for the Titans: 2004 1st rounder Pacman Jones or 6th rounder Bo Scaife?

Again, we shouldn't dismiss the late picks just as much as we shouldn't take the high picks for granted.

I've let it be known how much I want us to select Sergio Kindle. I think he's going to be a very good one. However, I won't dismiss the possibilty that a LB picked on Day 3 proves to be better than him.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I see the man's point. He is not saying this can't be done but his point is the odds are against it. Was not Tom Brady a Hail Mary who happened to work?
18% is all you need to figure this out Cousins for a pick that will have a productive long term NFL career. That is the success rate of an average entire NFL Draft from 1-7.12 divided by 18%=2.16 players , say three who will be good players for the Pats by 2013 if we have an average Draft. 4-5 if we hit a home run. 12? ....nope.
DW Toys

I'm not sure where the 18% comes from, but even if we assume it's true, BB's definitely ahead of that. If we discount last year's solid draft because it's still too early to judge, I count 26 contributors out of 77 picks, good for 33%, or almost double that 18% you mentioned. And I'm not even counting guys like Wilhite or Wheatley or Crable, who could one day become contributors.

Part of the pessimism in the late-round picks may be because we hit on 0 of 14 picks after the 4th round from 2006 to 2008. But that wasn't just the late-rounds; these were some of the worst drafts ever under BB, from top to bottom.

Still, if we look at those "hail mary" picks from the 5th round on since BB took over, 6 out of 38 picks were contributors, a very respectable 16%. Again, this doesn't include 2009, which featured major contributors Ingram and Edelman, as well as a guy who filled in admirably in Myron Pryor. With 7 picks, the chances of finding at least one solid contributor are very high here.

Tom Brady jumps out obviously. But Matt Cassel, Dan Koppen, TBC, David Givens, and Patrick Pass were all solid contributors picked late in the draft.

I know you're an advocate of trading those picks for proven players, and I certainly agree that there is nothing guaranteed with the draft. But there's nothing guaranteed about free agency or trades either. Ask Washington about Albert Haynesworth, or BB about Adalius.

As for trades, they can be a bit difficult to track and assess, but some of the big deals that stand out over the past year are the Jay Cutler deal, the Cassel/Vrabel deal, Greg Lewis/Alex Smith/Derrick Burgess to the Pats (ouch), Lito Sheppard/Braylon Edwards to the Jets, Jason Peters and Ellis Hobbs to the Eagles, and Richard Seymour to the Raiders. While it's too early to judge many of these deals, I don't think you could claim any of those were decisive wins for the team trading picks. Maybe the Peters deal, though I'm not a fan of his and they really overpaid.

I'm certainly open to trading picks for proven commodities, but I also accept there are no guarantees there either. If you factor not only the trade compensation, but also the contract extensions demanded by many of these players with no guarantee they'll work out, and I'm okay with not burning those picks on some of the players that were available.

Bottom line is I'd be ecstatic if we could connect on 16% of hail mary attempts in an actual game. Those last 7 picks in the draft may not yield multiple pro bowlers, but they aren't as worthless as the OP claims either.