Uh oh, Covid is spreading in the NFL

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PatsWSB47

Pro Bowl Player
I’m an MD. The death rate for males around Cam Newton’s age is nowhere near 3%. Come on, that’s absurd. I don’t have the actual data in front of me, but but it’s probably closer to 0.1%. Whatever statistic that person was showing was that within that age bracket over the last 8 months, there have been 30k deaths of which around 1k “involved” COVID.

I’m not trying to play down the gravity of the pandemic, but I think its important the conversation is framed in a reality-based manner.
That's too narrow a view. It's an extremely contagious virus that young survivors can transmit to vulnerable people.who doe.or wind up with long term serious health issues
 

IllegalContact

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Don't forget long term effects due to lung and heart scarring, as well as neurological damage.....that stuff doesn't count

that’s right ... getting CoVid is not a live/die binary .... especially if your hospitalization consumes your entire lifetime health insurance benefit
 
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bresna

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
I’m an MD. The death rate for males around Cam Newton’s age is nowhere near 3%. Come on, that’s absurd. I don’t have the actual data in front of me, but but it’s probably closer to 0.1%. Whatever statistic that person was showing was that within that age bracket over the last 8 months, there have been 30k deaths of which around 1k “involved” COVID.

I’m not trying to play down the gravity of the pandemic, but I think its important the conversation is framed in a reality-based manner.

I'm looking at the CDC tables now. You are correct that oldrover's table is the wrong one. However, your guess at the real number is also wrong. The CDC table can be found here: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S. It shows that the death rate for Pats players is .5 for those under 30 and 1.3% for those over 30. No matter how you slice it, if a lot of NFL players get this, there is a good chance that some will die. And some will probably never play again due to organ damage (heart/lungs).
 

Free_Pacman

On the Game Day Roster
That's too narrow a view. It's an extremely contagious virus that young survivors can transmit to vulnerable people.who doe.or wind up with long term serious health issues
Of course. People who test need to self-isolate for the appropriate period of time, and everyone else should remain vigilant, avoid large gatherings, and wear masks. That wasn’t my point though.

My point is that there are posters on here saying that 3% of people in Newton’s age cohort who have COVID die from it, which is not a statistic based in any realm of reality.
 

Free_Pacman

On the Game Day Roster
I'm looking at the CDC tables now. You are correct that oldrover's table is the wrong one. However, your guess at the real number is also wrong. The CDC table can be found here: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S. It shows that the death rate for Pats players is .5 for those under 30 and 1.3% for those over 30. No matter how you slice it, if a lot of NFL players get this, there is a good chance that some will die. And some will probably never play again due to organ damage (heart/lungs).

That’s not what that data says at all. The bar graph you’re looking at- “death by age group” is showing how much each age group makes up of all COVID deaths. That chart says 151,646 of people have died from COVID. Of those 151k deaths, 18-30 year olds made up 0.5% of those, or 810 total deaths. 30-40 year olds make up 1.3% of those total deaths, or ~2000 total deaths. So no, those numbers you’re looking at are not the “death rate.”

The actual statistic you’re looking for is the “case-fatality rate” or “infection-fatality rate.”
 
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WinstonSmith

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Edit: From Dr Simone Gold's Twitter. Posted only as text:

According to the CDC’s data, the survival rate for COVID-19 is as follows:

0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70 & over: 94.6%

Life expectancy in the USA per CDC: 78.7 (2018)
 

Free_Pacman

On the Game Day Roster
I'm looking at the CDC tables now. You are correct that oldrover's table is the wrong one. However, your guess at the real number is also wrong. The CDC table can be found here: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S. It shows that the death rate for Pats players is .5 for those under 30 and 1.3% for those over 30. No matter how you slice it, if a lot of NFL players get this, there is a good chance that some will die. And some will probably never play again due to organ damage (heart/lungs).
As I shown above, CDC says case fatality rate is 0.02%

Some quick math for you: 48 players per team x 32 teams = 1,536 players.

If ALL 1,536 players tested positive for COVID today, a grand total of 0.3 players (1536 players x 0.0002 case fatality rate) would be expected to die. That itself is even an overestimate, as the 0.0002 fatality rate is the fatality rate for 20-49 year olds (not many 40 year olds player) and includes people with pre-existng conditions who leave them immunocompromised (again not many players playing while on, say, chemotherapy currently in the NFL.)
 
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