Trading Out of the First, good read

[rookBoston]

I agree this draft is deep, very deep and at the top 5 it's strong but after that the first round doesn't have a lot of impact players and where it does there's some serious question marks. Upshaw and Ingram - DE/OLB tweeners with very short arms. Coples - big red flags over effort. Poe and Brockers - very little experience. Jenkins and Floyd - character red flags. The list goes on. When I'm writing a mock, I'm finding it hard to justify almost any trade ups. In part that's because the first round is deep and varied by position, but it's also because I don't see any big impact players after the top 5 that would justify a trade up for almost any team.

Where's the dominant outside pass rusher? The Number one receiver? The outstanding 3-4 DE? It's a great draft for depth but I don't think there's many game changers here outside the top 5.

There's no such thing as a sure thing in the draft, with a few notable exceptions like Larry Fitzgerald, who I think surprised absolutely nobody.

Guys like Coples and Brockers, their ceiling is so high that teams will take a flier at them, because they have HOF potential if they make the transition to being pros. The fact that Coples will go ahead of David Decastro, who many scouts claim is a sure-fire pro-bowler, tells you more about how rare a prospect he is to the upside than the risk to the downside. Otherwise Decastro would be in the top-5 with Claiborne and Blackmon.

Devon Still is another good mileage marker. He is a very low risk prospect, with some reasonable upside. Solid character guy. Controls his weight. 300+ points, but lean and muscular. Captain of his team. He was widely mocked in the top 20 just a few weeks ago. But with unheralded guys like Hill and Poe putting up spectacular, eye popping, measurables, safe and solid is only worth a pick in the late 20s in this draft class.

By comparison, again, in the 2010 draft class, here are the guys who were playing at Still's position: Tyson Jackson went #3, Aaron Maybin #11, Brian Orakpo #13, Larry English #16 (although he was more of a tweener, more like Ingram). Still is a better prospect than ANY of them... and this is the guy who dropped to us in the mock draft on this board.

That's not an indictment of the quality ahead of him, it's an affirmation.

I hear what you're saying. Jenkins is a guy that I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole and a radiation suit. But I have to admit his game film and his measurables look like a player who could be a star in the league. I can understand why a team like Cinci, who needs a shut down corner, will take a chance on him. He could be Pacman Jones. Or not.

Remember, Randy Moss dropped to #21 even tho everyone knew he'd be a historic talent, just because they didn't want to deal with a headcase. He turned out to be pretty reasonable, if well coached. That year, we drafted Robert Edwards at #18; totally the safe pick. In retrospect, Moss is a HOF receiver and Edwards is a footnote in the history books.

To me, the reason there isn't such a strong draw to trade up in this draft class isn't because the talent is weak up top, it's because the drop-off isn't really that palpable as you go deeper. Is Harrison Smith that much less than Mark Barron? Is there really that big a dropoff between Fletcher Cox and Jerel Worthy? Yeah, sure. Worthy isn't as physically dominant. But he gets the job done. And the gap between where they're likely to go in the draft is worth a 3rd round pick... which I think makes the value story a dead heat.

 

[rookBoston]

I have a theory why this draft class is so strong and deep. It's was the Lockout.

I think a lot of players who would have left school as juniors decided to stay in the NCAA for another year than risk leaving early and not having a job. Luck is one example. By rights, he would have been #1 last year, and RGIII would have been #1 this year. But because of the labor disagreement, a tough decision was a little easier for him to make; so, he chose to stay in school. Now, they've been squeezed into the same remarkable draft class.

 

[manxman2601]

There's no such thing as a sure thing in the draft, with a few notable exceptions like Larry Fitzgerald, who I think surprised absolutely nobody.

Guys like Coples and Brockers, their ceiling is so high that teams will take a flier at them, because they have HOF potential if they make the transition to being pros. The fact that Coples will go ahead of David Decastro, who many scouts claim is a sure-fire pro-bowler, tells you more about how rare a prospect he is to the upside than the risk to the downside. Otherwise Decastro would be in the top-5 with Claiborne and Blackmon.

Devon Still is another good mileage marker. He is a very low risk prospect, with some reasonable upside. Solid character guy. Controls his weight. 300+ points, but lean and muscular. Captain of his team. He was widely mocked in the top 20 just a few weeks ago. But with unheralded guys like Hill and Poe putting up spectacular, eye popping, measurables, safe and solid is only worth a pick in the late 20s in this draft class.

By comparison, again, in the 2010 draft class, here are the guys who were playing at Still's position: Tyson Jackson went #3, Aaron Maybin #11, Brian Orakpo #13, Larry English #16 (although he was more of a tweener, more like Ingram). Still is a better prospect than ANY of them... and this is the guy who dropped to us in the mock draft on this board.

That's not an indictment of the quality ahead of him, it's an affirmation.

I hear what you're saying. Jenkins is a guy that I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole and a radiation suit. But I have to admit his game film and his measurables look like a player who could be a star in the league. I can understand why a team like Cinci, who needs a shut down corner, will take a chance on him. He could be Pacman Jones. Or not.

Remember, Randy Moss dropped to #21 even tho everyone knew he'd be a historic talent, just because they didn't want to deal with a headcase. He turned out to be pretty reasonable, if well coached. That year, we drafted Robert Edwards at #18; totally the safe pick. In retrospect, Moss is a HOF receiver and Edwards is a footnote in the history books.

To me, the reason there isn't such a strong draw to trade up in this draft class isn't because the talent is weak up top, it's because the drop-off isn't really that palpable as you go deeper. Is Harrison Smith that much less than Mark Barron? Is there really that big a dropoff between Fletcher Cox and Jerel Worthy? Yeah, sure. Worthy isn't as physically dominant. But he gets the job done. And the gap between where they're likely to go in the draft is worth a 3rd round pick... which I think makes the value story a dead heat.

Gave you a like because I love good strong logical arguments. well played. However, I'm still don't see the difference makers with some exceptions (you're probably aware of my liking of Barron).

Still is actually a really good case in point that can decide this argument one way or another. I was actually going to start a thread about this. In last years draft there was Cam Heyward, Muhammed Wilkerson and Cam Jordan, all of whom met wth the Patriots I think. We passed on all three despite the obvious need. If Devon Still does fall to the Pats and we take him, then that goes a long way to supporting your argument.

On the other side of the argument is this. Will there be the same impacts from this draft class as there was from AJ Green, Julio Jones, JJ Watt, Aldon Smith et al? I'm not convinced and last years draft class wasn't seen as great.

 

[rookBoston]

Gave you a like because I love good strong logical arguments. well played. However, I'm still don't see the difference makers with some exceptions (you're probably aware of my liking of Barron).

Still is actually a really good case in point that can decide this argument one way or another. I was actually going to start a thread about this. In last years draft there was Cam Heyward, Muhammed Wilkerson and Cam Jordan, all of whom met wth the Patriots I think. We passed on all three despite the obvious need. If Devon Still does fall to the Pats and we take him, then that goes a long way to supporting your argument.

On the other side of the argument is this. Will there be the same impacts from this draft class as there was from AJ Green, Julio Jones, JJ Watt, Aldon Smith et al? I'm not convinced and last years draft class wasn't seen as great.

Last year's class was not that great, you're right. I think the talent started to get a bit thin in the teens.

My opinion: I would say Jonathan Baldwin (#26) reminds me of Alshon Jeffery. Marcel Dareus (#3) would be in the conversation with Brockers and Cox. People would be asking whether Prince Amukamara (#19) was a better bet than Stephon Gilmore. How do Kerrigan (#16) and Clayborn (#20) compare with Vinny Curry, Andre Branch and Nick Perry? I think it's competitive. I'm not sure.

Difference is, Jeffery, Gilmore, Curry, Branch and Perry will almost all be available in the 2nd round.

 

[manxman2601]

Last year's class was not that great, you're right. I think the talent started to get a bit thin in the teens.

My opinion: I would say Jonathan Baldwin (#26) reminds me of Alshon Jeffery. Marcel Dareus (#3) would be in the conversation with Brockers and Cox. People would be asking whether Prince Amukamara (#19) was a better bet than Stephon Gilmore. How do Kerrigan (#16) and Clayborn (#20) compare with Vinny Curry, Andre Branch and Nick Perry? I think it's competitive. I'm not sure.

Difference is, Jeffery, Gilmore, Curry, Branch and Perry will almost all be available in the 2nd round.

Well Gilmore, Perry and possibly Branch likely won't be but I take your point. However, will Upshaw be as productive as Aldon Smith? Ingram to Kerrigan? How do Blackmon and Floyd match up to Jones and Green? In two years time, who will be better, Quinton Coples or Robert Quinn? Time will decide which of us is right.

moving on, I do think this draft class is stunningly deep and so from that standpoint it's a very strong draft.

 

[patfanken]

Thanks for this thread guys. Great job. If I had read another Tebow thread, I would have stroked out. My god, one of the late night news started with a lead on how Tebow could be coming to Boston.

My draft strategy is changing with every signing. What is it now 11 new signings? I think the depth of some of the signings and the few more I expect see (or at least hope to see) are radically changing the way I'm looking at this draft, and its scaring me into thinking I'm a "Jet fan".

My initial reaction to all this activity is less that we are acquiring players, but more that we are creating great veteran depth than thus greater competition and roster challenges....and that's way before the draft. Just look at a couple of them.

1. Receiver - if no other receivers are signed, just look at what you'd be watching every afternoon in camp. The Pats will keep 8 receivers. 3 will be the TEs. Welker and LLoyd will be locks for the first 2 WRs spots. - After that we'd have Edelman, Gonzales, Stallworth, Ocho, Underwood, and then assume Branch, ALL fighting for those 3 position. 6 men enter - 3 men leave.

That's 6 guys, all with decent pro resumes. All with some flaws. All fighting it out like in a death match to survive, with the winner getting a shot to be the #5 receiving option. Then end result of that is going to be a lot better talent and depth than what you'd get from "usual suspects" and a bunch of practice squaders -

My question is just how does a draft pick WR crack that???? And is it fair that we ask one to try? Or even better is it a wise use of resources to do so?

The Same could be said about the OL with the Gallery signing, although with Mankins' operation coming to light, more understandable. That being said, there will still be a lot of competition at the spot. Roster spots are to be won at back up C, G, and can either T hold off Solder And who knows about the rest of those anonymous OLmen training at Dante's school for very big boys. who might "pop" this camp that we aren't even watching.

I guess my point is, I really want to either trade up....often this draft and wind up with 3 or 4 picks that we REALLY like. OR, I wouldn't mind trading at least 2 of those 5 picks into the future. So the idea to trade down into the 2nd and 3rd rounds was intriguing. But I don't want to accumulate those 10+ picks THIS year. I don't think we'd have room to keep them if we did. It would be like 2007 all over again. Were we get more from trades than from the draft itself. All those picks wasted. More because there was no room, than from there was no talent.

I don't want to see that to a lesser extent happen this year. Trade down if we must, but not for extra picks (though I usually agree with that strategy, but not this year).
So I'm in the camp....for today at least of.... Trade up or trade forward - Take your pick But DO NO accumulate picks for THIS year

 

[manxman2601]

I don't want to see that to a lesser extent happen this year. Trade down if we must, but not for extra picks (though I usually agree with that strategy, but not this year).
So I'm in the camp....for today at least of.... Trade up or trade forward - Take your pick But DO NO accumulate picks for THIS year

After today it's starting to look as though you are right. The question is, does BB like this draft and wants to acquire quality talent or does he hate it and sees much better value in a potentially QB rich draft next year? very early signs from arranged visits might suggest the latter (not that anything is set in stone). 2nd to mid round pass rushers and late round CB's seem to be the extent of Patriot interest to date.

 

[IllegalContact]

I have not pondered this before, but just for argument sake, the pats trade one 1st rounder for a early-2nd this year and a 1st next year and trade the other 1st for a late 2nd and late 3rd this year. say just for argument sake we wind up with:

2(38) - DL - Kendall Reyes
2(48) - SS - Harrison Smith
2(58) - OLB - Shea Mcclellin
2(63) - OLB - Bruce Irvin
3(85) - WR - Marvin Jones
3(95) - RB - Robert Turbin

stands to be as strong as most scenarios involving the pats first rounders

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I guess my point is, I really want to either trade up....often this draft and wind up with 3 or 4 picks that we REALLY like. OR, I wouldn't mind trading at least 2 of those 5 picks into the future. So the idea to trade down into the 2nd and 3rd rounds was intriguing. But I don't want to accumulate those 10+ picks THIS year. I don't think we'd have room to keep them if we did. It would be like 2007 all over again. Were we get more from trades than from the draft itself. All those picks wasted. More because there was no room, than from there was no talent.

I don't want to see that to a lesser extent happen this year. Trade down if we must, but not for extra picks (though I usually agree with that strategy, but not this year).
So I'm in the camp....for today at least of.... Trade up or trade forward - Take your pick But DO NO accumulate picks for THIS year

This is an excellent point. We are fast approaching a situation where day 3 draft picks don't really have much chance to make the roster, even as ST players. And sadly I think the chances of signing them to the practice squad is very slim as other teams are going to scoop them up.

 

[ay-yo]

My current roster looks something like this:

ST: 5
Ghost, Mesko, LS, White, Slater

Offense: 22
QB: Brady, Mallet - 2
RB: Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead - 3
WR: Welker, Lloyd, Gonzalez, Stallworth, Edelman - 5
OT: Light, Solder, Vollmer, Cannon - 4
OG: Waters, Mankins, Gallery - 3
OC: Connoly, Wendell - 2
TE: Gronk, Hernandez, Fells - 3

Defense: 17
DE: Fanene, Deaderick, Pryor - 3
NT: Wilfork, Love, Brace - 3
OLB: Nink, Scott - 2
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 3
CB: McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore - 4
S: Chung, Gregory - 2

total: 44

leaving 9 spots. Assuming a few more signings (my hope is BGJE, Ihedigbo, Carter and Castillo) we will have about 5 spots remaining.

 

[BlueThunder]

My current roster looks something like this:

ST: 5
Ghost, Mesko, LS, White, Slater

Offense: 22
QB: Brady, Mallet - 2
RB: Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead - 3
WR: Welker, Lloyd, Gonzalez, Stallworth, Edelman - 5
OT: Light, Solder, Vollmer, Cannon - 4
OG: Waters, Mankins, Gallery - 3
OC: Connoly, Wendell - 2
TE: Gronk, Hernandez, Fells - 3

Defense: 17
DE: Fanene, Deaderick, Pryor - 3
NT: Wilfork, Love, Brace - 3
OLB: Nink, Scott - 2
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 3
CB: McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Moore - 4
S: Chung, Gregory - 2

total: 44

leaving 9 spots. Assuming a few more signings (my hope is BGJE, Ihedigbo, Carter and Castillo) we will have about 5 spots remaining.

I might add a few players to your list....I don't think they will have room for 9 more, thus trading out in this year's draft on a couple of picks could be in BB's plan. If he doesn't, they probably never make it to the PS.

QB- Hoyer (Not sure he gets picked up by another team and BB won't just cut him)

RB- Polite or Kettani as the #4 but agree and hope BJGE returns for fair $$$.

WR- Branch or Rookie?

CB- Cole is a ST gunner and may be the #5 CB

LB- Koutouvides will probably make the roster. Good ST. Markell Carter is my binky this year and looking for him to make the roster also..

DL- Do we think that Brace can make it or that a rookie draft pick gets it ?

S - Room here for draft pick or two !

JMHO

 

[ay-yo]

I might add a few players to your list....I don't think they will have room for 9 more, thus trading out in this year's draft on a couple of picks could be in BB's plan. If he doesn't, they probably never make it to the PS.

QB- Hoyer (Not sure he gets picked up by another team and BB won't just cut him)

RB- Polite or Kettani as the #4 but agree and hope BJGE returns for fair $$$.

WR- Branch or Rookie?

CB- Cole is a ST gunner and may be the #5 CB

LB- Koutouvides will probably make the roster. Good ST. Markell Carter is my binky this year and looking for him to make the roster also..

DL- Do we think that Brace can make it or that a rookie draft pick gets it ?

S - Room here for draft pick or two !

JMHO

I'd probably agree that you could add a few players to the list as we have well over 44 guys currently signed. Harrison is another guy that was a recent signing. I think the list highlights the roster positions that are easiest to improve / need more bodies though.

Offense:
RB: 1
QB: If Hoyer returns we roll w/ 3 QB's. Otherwise have 23 offensive players and 25 defenders.

Defense:
DE: 1 (2 if Hoyer leaves)
OLB:2
CB: 2
S: 2

 

[rookBoston]

I might add a few players to your list....I don't think they will have room for 9 more, thus trading out in this year's draft on a couple of picks could be in BB's plan. If he doesn't, they probably never make it to the PS.

QB- Hoyer (Not sure he gets picked up by another team and BB won't just cut him)

RB- Polite or Kettani as the #4 but agree and hope BJGE returns for fair $$$.

WR- Branch or Rookie?

CB- Cole is a ST gunner and may be the #5 CB

LB- Koutouvides will probably make the roster. Good ST. Markell Carter is my binky this year and looking for him to make the roster also..

DL- Do we think that Brace can make it or that a rookie draft pick gets it ?

S - Room here for draft pick or two !

JMHO

Dont forget that Slater is going to be on the roster at WR, purely to captain the STs.
Also, Tracy White has already made the team.

 

[rookBoston]

Trade down if we must, but not for extra picks (though I usually agree with that strategy, but not this year).
So I'm in the camp....for today at least of.... Trade up or trade forward - Take your pick But DO NO accumulate picks for THIS year

Makes sense. We don't have roster space for more than a few rookies. We did lose a few solid young players a few years ago because we couldn't fit them on a 53-man roster. Team were circling our depth chart as BB decided who to cut loose, and most of those players landed on other rosters. That is a waste of draft value. Jeremy Mincey has been a solid outside pass rusher in the NFL, and we cut him coming out of camp.

I think BB learned his lesson. I don't think it's a mistake that we don't have any late round draft picks this year. He's given them away in various trades. If we drafted players they could never make the team.

 

[MP-Logick]

Makes sense. We don't have roster space for more than a few rookies. We did lose a few solid young players a few years ago because we couldn't fit them on a 53-man roster. Team were circling our depth chart as BB decided who to cut loose, and most of those players landed on other rosters. That is a waste of draft value. Jeremy Mincey has been a solid outside pass rusher in the NFL, and we cut him coming out of camp.

I think BB learned his lesson. I don't think it's a mistake that we don't have any late round draft picks this year. He's given them away in various trades. If we drafted players they could never make the team.

Jeremy Mincey deserved to be cut. It took him until his fifth season to be even a decent NFL player.

Hardly any of the players BB cuts end up doing anything anywhere else. His idea is to take more players, and keep the ones that fit well with his team.

 

[rookBoston]

Another thought... this is pretty far fetched, but will share for amusement sake

I've been making the case in this thread that this could be a HISTORIC draft class, an artifact of the Lockout which has pushed quality players who might have come out last year into this years class... which helps explain why it is so deep.

If I really believe that, and if I believe that BB believes that, then I have to recant on my original intent in starting this thread. If this class has rare talent in the 2nd round, and assuming you believe that next year's draft class resumes a normal distribution of talent, then the right strategy is to Trade In, not Out. Trade Forward, not Back.

"Trading forward for value" only makes sense if you believe the players you're choosing between at #32 next year are going to be WORSE than what we're looking at with #42 this year. Players like Jerel Worthy, Harrison Smith, Andre Branch, Kevin Zeitler, Kendall Reyes, Zach Brown... there's a dozen solid players who will drop out of the first round... maybe not those exact guys, but if not them, them someone else needs to drop instead. Are they better players than the candidates we'd see at #32 next year? I think, maybe yes.

In the past, it's been Oakland or Baltimore or New Orleans that does this kind of silly stuff. But for the first time I've ever seen, maybe the dynamics are backwards, maybe we take the other side. BB has always been a seller, never a buyer.

I'm not sure the theory holds up in practice, but let's play it out. Here's what the draft could look like:

DT Fletcher Cox (27 + 2012 4th)
DT Devon Still (31)
S Harrison Smith (42) << trade forward from 2013 1st round
OLB Shae McClellin (48)
OLB Vinny Curry (56) << trade forward from 2013 2nd round + 2012 3rd
CB/FS Trumain Johnson (63)

I've taken all defensive players, because the O is overstuffed with talent at every single position. This has basically reinvented our entire defense by adding six rookies who could probably start for us Week One. It also means that we wont have a pick next year until the 3rd round.

Here's the 53-man

QB - Brady, (Hoyer), Mallett
RB - Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, Polite
WR - Welker, Lloyd, (Branch/Ochocinco/Stallworth), Gonzalez, Edelman, Slater
TE - Gronkowski, Hernandez, Fell
OT - Light, Solder, Vollmer, Cannon
OG - Mankins, Waters, Gallery
OC - Connolly, Wendell

DL - Wilfork, Cox, Fanene, Still, Love, Deaderick
OLB - Ninkovich, Scott, Cunningham, McClellin, Curry
ILB - Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, White, Koutouvides
CB - McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Johnson, Moore
S - Chung, Gregory, Smith, Brown

P - Mesko
K - Gostkowski
LS - Aiken

And look at the D. 25 players deep and no dead wood. Zero percent body fat. And so young. Sergio Brown is the weakest link, and he's either the 5th or 6th safety on the depth chart, and would only ever see the field on ST where he's a stud.

All six rookies are starting caliber talents, and most of them are coming off the bench. We could start all our backups and still field a pretty credible D

Still - Love - Deaderick
McClellin - Fletcher - White - Curry
Dowling - Smith - Johnson - Moore

I've already cut Brace, Pryor and Barrett, with no remorse. If I had to cut another player from this roster, it would probably be Hoyer!

Alright, maybe not realistic, I admit.

 

[captain stone]

I have not pondered this before, but just for argument sake, the pats trade one 1st rounder for a early-2nd this year and a 1st next year and trade the other 1st for a late 2nd and late 3rd this year. say just for argument sake we wind up with:

2(38) - DL - Kendall Reyes
2(48) - SS - Harrison Smith
2(58) - OLB - Shea Mcclellin
2(63) - OLB - Bruce Irvin
3(85) - WR - Marvin Jones
3(95) - RB - Robert Turbin

stands to be as strong as most scenarios involving the pats first rounders

We might have to cross Irvin off our lists:
ProFootballWeekly.com - West Virginia draft prospect Irvin arrested

 

[ctpatsfan77]

"Trading forward for value" only makes sense if you believe the players you're choosing between at #32 next year are going to be WORSE than what we're looking at with #42 this year.

I like thinking outside the box, but there is at least one case to argue against it.

The Patriots clearly saw the 2007 draft as weak; they traded away four consecutive high picks (their first, their second, their third, SF's fourth). It was also the only draft I can remember where the Pats *didn't* have any draft picks they acquired in the previous draft.

And yet they didn't trade any picks forward, even with what looks like a draft they didn't like.

 

[rookBoston]

I like thinking outside the box, but there is at least one case to argue against it.

The Patriots clearly saw the 2007 draft as weak; they traded away four consecutive high picks (their first, their second, their third, SF's fourth). It was also the only draft I can remember where the Pats *didn't* have any draft picks they acquired in the previous draft.

And yet they didn't trade any picks forward, even with what looks like a draft they didn't like.

Yeah, this it totally true. They traded out, not forward. But it was for Welker and Moss, which is a pretty solid return.

 

[stinkypete]

It's gonna happen, the talent pool takes a drop around 25 - 30. I think Belichick will take the BPA at #27, then trade down to mid round 2 for a late pick this year and a 2 next.

Also to keep in mind when discussing moves, the Pats have almost no late round picks this year or next. You know it's not going to stay that way.