Trading Into 2019

[Off The Grid]

Me, I'm pretty voraciously against Trading Up.

Mind you: I traded up for Justin "JJ" "Mega" Watt in 2011...

And then traded up for Aaron Donald in 2014...

But I usually Trade Back, amassing Picks and scooping up as many Sleepers as possible!!

I guess that my tendency to accumulate 20-30 Draft Picks makes that pretty clear.

It's just that I perceive "Value" far differently from most...

1st Round talent is routinely available on Day 3...

But the Draft is far from a "Crap Shoot".

 

[supafly]

the Draft is far from a "Crap Shoot".

I’m just suggesting that we see plenty of players that are taken who don’t pan out, even in the high rounds. Lots of busts, even with qualified scouts that spend day and night in preparation of the event. Just the luck of the draw. That’s one of the main reasons why I’m hesitant to give up a few high round picks to take a chance on one guy.

As you mention, there are many who have successful careers that are found in the mid-late rounds, or even after the draft as UDFAs. In that sense, it does seem to be a bit of a spin at the wheel, or at least that’s what I was trying to suggest.

 

[supafly]

Decent article from Grantland on Belichick, his draft success, and hints of his general mindset as it pertains to the event. I don’t know if this will apply to this year or not because Bill can be unpredictable at times, but generally, it seems as though he’s been against giving up lots of picks as many other teams will often do.

Of course, he may feel as though THE guy is available, but he hasn’t typically overrated to a need or lack of options at a certain position too often in the past. I guess the mystery and intrigue is what will keep our interest at a high point for the next 2.5 weeks.

Method to the Madness: How Belichick Rules the Draft

 

[Off The Grid]

I’m just suggesting that we see plenty of players that are taken who don’t pan out, even in the high rounds. Lots of busts, even with qualified scouts that spend day and night in preparation of the event. Just the luck of the draw. That’s one of the main reasons why I’m hesitant to give up a few high round picks to take a chance on one guy.

As you mention, there are many who have successful careers that are found in the mid-late rounds, or even after the draft as UDFAs. In that sense, it does seem to be a bit of a spin at the wheel, or at least that’s what I was trying to suggest.

Did you say "Crap Shoot"? I'd missed it or forgotten. No offense intended. I was addressing a more prevalent attitude of dismissing Hits or Misses as Luck.

Most Picks will be Misses...So it's understandable that many see it as a matter of Luck.

And there're a lot'f "Busts" that might've been Hits or even Stars, had they not been screwed over by circumstances ~ Bad Coaching, mostly.

But every Pick matters...as does the research that goes into it.

 

[supafly]

But every Pick matters...as does the research that goes into it.

Has life allowed you to delve into things the way that you’d like, this year? I know that your analysis is very thorough and helpful. I recently checked out your scouting report on Mason Rudolph, but I haven’t read the one on Falk, yet. Doesn’t seem like you’re too keen on the idea of Rudolph in a Pats uni.

Edit: I went back and read all of your scouting reports for the 2018 QB class. Good stuff.

 

[Off The Grid]

Has life allowed you to delve into things the way that you’d like, this year? I know that your analysis is very thorough and helpful. I recently checked out your scouting report on Mason Rudolph, but I haven’t read the one on Falk, yet. Doesn’t seem like you’re too keen on the idea of Rudolph in a Pats uni.

Edit: I went back and read all of your scouting reports for the 2018 QB class. Good stuff.

Thank you, Brother Soup!!

To answer your opening question: Never!!

I've got an ocean of incomplete thoughts that I hope to frenetically complete, starting tonight...but we'll see!! I still haven't mastered my time, but'm still trying!!

 

[HailHydra]

I'm a big fan of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Recently, a mock projected that we'd be able to grab him at 23 - which is highly unlikely but I'd be truly happy if that happened. He might be the type of versatile, all-around player Belichick wants to move up a few picks for in the 12-14 range if he does fall.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Again, it seems as though some fail to recall 2011 when he wouldn’t move up 6 spots to draft JJ Watt, and that’s the year we had 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds.

Three possible explanations:

(1) He tried and failed.
(2) Solder was his primary target all along, knowing that Light was near the end of his career.
(3) That draft was loaded with talent. He could easily have decided that there was no point in moving up, because he was all but guaranteed to get good value right where he was.

And a reminder: in the early rounds at least, you generally have to tell the team you're trading up with the position you're looking to take.

 

[supafly]

Three possible explanations:

(1) He tried and failed.
(2) Solder was his primary target all along, knowing that Light was near the end of his career.
(3) That draft was loaded with talent. He could easily have decided that there was no point in moving up, because he was all but guaranteed to get good value right where he was.

And a reminder: in the early rounds at least, you generally have to tell the team you're trading up with the position you're looking to take.

If I had to guess, I’d take option 1, with option 3 as the next possibility. Just my opinion, of course. Maybe he was higher on Solder than I’m guessing.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I'm a big fan of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Recently, a mock projected that we'd be able to grab him at 23 - which is highly unlikely but I'd be truly happy if that happened. He might be the type of versatile, all-around player Belichick wants to move up a few picks for in the 12-14 range if he does fall.

Reid at 31/43 seems better value than packaging 63 and 23 for Fitzpatrick.

Edit: per the old value chart, 23 + 63 doesn't even quite get us to 15. That's a hefty price to pay for the next McCourty. Fitzpatrick is a very good player, but probably not someone who will completely transform a defense on his own. If he falls to 23, then I'm all in on the pick. The only players that I would trade up for are Bradley Chubb and Denzel Ward. Fitzpatrick is just a tier down from them.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If I had to guess, I’d take option 1, with option 3 as the next possibility. Just my opinion, of course. Maybe he was higher on Solder than I’m guessing.

They cancelled his visit at the last minute, and had Scarnecchia work him out in Colorado.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Given the volatility leading up to this draft I wouldn’t trade anywhere until it is actually taking place. I think the wild swings we are seeing in first round mocks play right into the Patriots hands, as the likelihood of a really good prospect or two falling to them is greater when the rankings aren’t locked in. If front offices are as different in their player ratings as the mocks are it is going to be a wild first two rounds.

 

[Off The Grid]

Given the volatility leading up to this draft I wouldn’t trade anywhere until it is actually taking place.

Well, doy.

Unless you're trading for the #1 ~ or the #2 if the #1 is already traded and its fate is obvious ~ you'd have to be galactically stupid to trade for a Pick before you know who's gonna be there...Again: doy. Why bring it up??? It's not as if...Oh...riiigghhhht.

Jets Trade For #3 Pick In The 2018 NFL Draft

 

[Huckleberry1]

Well, doy.

Unless you're trading for the #1 ~ or the #2 if the #1 is already traded and its fate is obvious ~ you'd have to be galactically stupid to trade for a Pick before you know who's gonna be there...Again: doy. Why bring it up??? It's not as if...Oh...riiigghhhht.

Jets Trade For #3 Pick In The 2018 NFL Draft

True, but I brought it up more because mgteich asked about trading into 2019. Agree completely on the Jets though.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Grid, can you remember any recent draft’s where th first round was as fluid as this one appears to be?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Well, doy.

Unless you're trading for the #1 ~ or the #2 if the #1 is already traded and its fate is obvious ~ you'd have to be galactically stupid to trade for a Pick before you know who's gonna be there...Again: doy. Why bring it up??? It's not as if...Oh...riiigghhhht.

Jets Trade For #3 Pick In The 2018 NFL Draft

Erm, you do know Belichick has said he is comfortable trading picks for picks before the draft?

 

[patsfaninpa]

2019 draft is loaded on DL. Kinda how we got Wilfork. Traded first in 03 for the pick we used to
Get him in 04.

 

[Off The Grid]

True, but I brought it up more because mgteich asked about trading into 2019. Agree completely on the Jets though.

Ahhh...I was just goofing, you know.

 

[Off The Grid]

Erm, you do know Belichick has said he is comfortable trading picks for picks before the draft?

Link?

Note: I was clearly talking about teams trading up ~ not the teams that trade with them, obviously. The Colts were brilliant to fleece the Jets as they did.

If Mad Bill has stated, as you allege, that he'll happily trade up for a Pick before that Pick is on the clock, then he's either practicing stupidity or getting a huge discount.

I'd be surprised if it's the former...But smart people do do stupid things.

 

[Off The Grid]

Grid, can you remember any recent draft’s where th first round was as fluid as this one appears to be?

You mean it terms of we really have very little way of predicting the order of the top Picks?

I can't say that I do!! Excellent point.