There is NO reason to not spend cap space

[JayNM]

Gonzalez is eligible for an extension after this year. If recent history has shown anything, the cost of extensions with 1st round picks goes up substantially when they don't get done between years 3 and 4. That same prudent logic puts Maye's extension 2 years away, not 4

Fair enough, but player could also think they are giving up money but settling soon. But yeah, now it's a trade-off discussion.

I for one have no idea if Gonzales or Maye would do this, history on QBs says absolutely no, but for CBs like him is more unclear

 

[Ring 6]

They absolutely can do that, but doing so is essentially borrowing future cap space to make room today.

So essentially the argument is - they should spend just to spend, get any player worth a damn in the door, max out the cap space. When they have no cap space left in 2026 and 2027, they should borrow cap space from future years to make space and kick the can down the road.

Is this a team that we think should be putting themselves in that position right now? I'd rather be a bit more responsible and leave some amount of flexibility, and worry about "kicking the can down the road" once they are actually established contenders.

Every team always borrows future cap discs to make room today. Every contract with a signing bonus does that. It’s the norm not the exception.

Who ever said spend just to spend?
They should spend to improve the roster. No one ever has advocared signing useless player just because you have cap space.

If they sign Diggs and draft a LT then use the rest of the draft and cap to upgrade the depth across the roster, what would they be missing that tells you they aren’t a contender now?

We face a generationally weak schedule.
We have 8 opponents who win 5 or fewer games and 3 more with losing records and only 3 that were better than 10-7.

There is absolutely no reason we aren’t contenders this year if the off season job gets finished.

 

[Sciz]

That doesn’t short Kraft isn’t cheap. You don’t understand those numbers and even if you did, they are meaningless without comparison to other teams.
Yes Kraft spends what looks like a lot of money on players. But compare to the other 31 teams, depending upon the timeframe studied he is either near the bottom or dead last.

Using the NFLPA’s official numbers from 2021-2023, the Pats are 18th.

 

[TheRainMaker]

If Gonzalez makes All Pro or even a Pro Bowl this season, he will be on his way to ask to be the highest paid DB in the league.

 

[Love The Drake]

If Gonzalez makes All Pro or even a Pro Bowl this season, he will be on his way to ask to be the highest paid DB in the league.

which he should.

 

[Ring 6]

Do you have any evidence that Kraft spent substantially less than other teams in this same timeframe?

It was posted here many times. I don’t have the time to go find it, but the patriots were last or next to last in cash spent over a big sample, something like 20 years.
Bb also mentioned it in 2023, we were at or near the bottom in cash spent over an extended period.

*note that due to the nature of NFL contracts cash spent varies widely from year to year, so you have to use a large sample size of years to get a true result

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, one year, one team, did what you note. Not good analytics to take a single example in a long history, in a complex system, and draw a conclusion that broadly applies.

If you have the time, it would be great to see that extended to a decade of Super Bowls. And perhaps to conference champs. That'd give you 20 teams as data points, and worthy of an extended conversation.

Every year every team does that. This was just one example.

I don’t have the time or inclination to accept your assignment but I can guarantee you it will look the same. It always does.

 

[Rob0729]

There were dozens of players last year available in free agency that were better than players that made our roster. Our roster was so bad we were picking up practice squad guys and making them starters.
Free agency, especially for a 4 win team with major weaknesses and no depth isn’t just about the top end guys.

The Super Bowl champion eagles have just 5 players on their roster at cap hits over 10 mill.
Only 9 over 6 mill
Only 14 over 4 mil

39 of 53 have cap hits of less than $4 million.

You don’t win SBs because of 5 guys you pay more than 10 million, you win SB because of 44 guys you pay less that 6 million


There were dozens of free agents that cost less than 6 million, many less than 4, that could have made this a better team and we chose to not improve the roster.

This year is looking different.
We upgraded starters at
RT
C
DT
EDGE
LB (possibly 2)
CB
S3

But we also resigned Hooper to address TE depth
We signed Schweitzer as veteran OL depth
We added Chaisson for edge depth
We signed Gibbens as a quasi starter and depth at LB
We got Tonga for DT depth
Hollins for WR depth
Epps is listed as S3 above but he is an addition at a position where we list no one.

Arguably with the possibly exception of Gibson, these depth guys are all better than any FA we signed last year.

If we have 65 million left under the cap and set aside 25 for draft picks, ps, 52 and 53, etc we have 40 to spend.

A WR is going to cost us 15 if we sign Diggs or make a trade.

The remaining 25 and the draft can go to filling the major hole at LT in the draft and adding depth at

Rb
Fb (?)
WR
IOL
DT
DE
CB
EDGE

If that is dine, this team has been transformed. With Diggs and LT plus those depth additions, where is the weakness that says we lack talent and can’t compete? I don’t see it.


We have a generationally weak schedule this year. We can’t leave money on the table and not fix what’s left to fix.

Last year was last year. I am not going to address it because it is a different regime this year. Different strategies. Different person making final say. Irrelevant now to this Patriots' team.

And Vrabel is trying to build a team in his image. Just because there were more talented players out there than the ones the Patriots signed doesn't mean they fit the schemes Vrabel is implementing or fit his short and long term strategy. It is clear they wanted guys they were familiar with to help with the learning curve.

The Patriots are not going to turn this team into a contender overnight. What the Commanders did last year was an abnormality.

And BTW, people were totally unimpressed with the Commanders' free agency this time last year. Most of their pick ups were low cost, one or two year deals. They laughed that they signed a washed up and no longer productive Zach Ertz (he had 7 TDs this past season). They thought Dante Fowler would be a decent rotational pass rusher, but wouldn't make an impact (he had 10.5 sacks which is more than he had the previous two years combined).

I am not going to kill the Pats for things they did or didn't do before the draft and see what the product looks like on the field. Vrabel's strategy of building a team might propel the Pats into the playoffs. Maybe guys that they knew had far more potential than they showed in their careers thus far and Vrabel and co got it out of them. Maybe not.

 

[Ring 6]

Using the NFLPA’s official numbers from 2021-2023, the Pats are 18th.

3 years isn’t really a good sample size.
As you can see due to the nature of NFL contracts and the cap, cash varies widely year to year.

When you have fewer players under contract and a lot of cap space, much of that years cap is from amortized signing bonuses. Then if you have a stacked roster and are flush against the cap, you cash will be low. This is because signing bonuses count year 1 as cash but over time as cap.

At least 5 years, and probably 8-10 would be the best gauge.
The patriots ranking in these 3 is skewed higher because of 2021.

 

[JayNM]

»»OP's intromission here»»

AJ's opinions are not necessarily my own

engage with him at your own peril too

 

[Ring 6]

Last year was last year. I am not going to address it because it is a different regime this year. Different strategies. Different person making final say. Irrelevant now to this Patriots' team.

And Vrabel is trying to build a team in his image. Just because there were more talented players out there than the ones the Patriots signed doesn't mean they fit the schemes Vrabel is implementing or fit his short and long term strategy. It is clear they wanted guys they were familiar with to help with the learning curve.

The Patriots are not going to turn this team into a contender overnight. What the Commanders did last year was an abnormality.

And BTW, people were totally unimpressed with the Commanders' free agency this time last year. Most of their pick ups were low cost, one or two year deals. They laughed that they signed a washed up and no longer productive Zach Ertz (he had 7 TDs this past season). They thought Dante Fowler would be a decent rotational pass rusher, but wouldn't make an impact (he had 10.5 sacks which is more than he had the previous two years combined).

I am not going to kill the Pats for things they did or didn't do before the draft and see what the product looks like on the field. Vrabel's strategy of building a team might propel the Pats into the playoffs. Maybe guys that they knew had far more potential than they showed in their careers thus far and Vrabel and co got it out of them. Maybe not.

The topic is spending to the cap. What they did last year illustrates how not spending to the cap devastates a roster.

Not sure where you get “killing the pat’s for what they’ve done” nothing in my post was negative about what they’ve done. They just need to finish it.
If they do there is absolutely no question this team is a contender but there is work to do. You can’t be league worst at WR and LT and not address it.

What the Commanders did really isn’t abnormal. Perhaps the playoff run, but going from bad to the playoffs with a regime change is quite common.

 

[Ring 6]

»»OP's intromission here»»

AJ's opinions are not necessarily my own

engage with him at your own peril too

GFY

 

[JayNM]

GFY

I told you Im a patient man.

 

[Ring 6]

3 years isn’t really a good sample size.
As you can see due to the nature of NFL contracts and the cap, cash varies widely year to year.

When you have fewer players under contract and a lot of cap space, much of that years cap is from amortized signing bonuses. Then if you have a stacked roster and are flush against the cap, you cash will be low. This is because signing bonuses count year 1 as cash but over time as cap.

At least 5 years, and probably 8-10 would be the best gauge.
The patriots ranking in these 3 is skewed higher because of 2021.

Grok says we are 28th over the last 10 years.

 

[Rob0729]

The topic is spending to the cap. What they did last year illustrates how not spending to the cap devastates a roster.

Not sure where you get “killing the pat’s for what they’ve done” nothing in my post was negative about what they’ve done. They just need to finish it.
If they do there is absolutely no question this team is a contender but there is work to do. You can’t be league worst at WR and LT and not address it.

What the Commanders did really isn’t abnormal. Perhaps the playoff run, but going from bad to the playoffs with a regime change is quite common.

Yes, not spending did devastate the team last year. And guess what? The Pats changed things. They fired Mayo and coaching staff. They hired Vrabel and put him in charge of personnel. We are changing our strategy.

This year's free agency sucked. The two players the Pats would have grossly overpaid for beyond Williams decided to stay with their current teams rather than seriously test free agency. That doesn't mean the Pats should just use that money and just throw it at other players.

And I am talking about the Commanders' playoff run as abnormal. And it rare for a 4 win team to go to the playoffs the next year with a regime change. It is exceptionally rare for them to go from 4 wins one year to 12 wins the next like the Commanders did. Even rarer for them to go to the NFCCG. A typical bump from a regime change is like 3-5 more wins.

And how do we know the Pats won't have a similar bump this upcoming season? We haven't even hit the draft yet. It isn't likely they will have the success the Commanders had, but they could certainly have a chance to be a Wild Card team this year if their moves hit.

 

[maust]

Fair enough, but player could also think they are giving up money but settling soon. But yeah, now it's a trade-off discussion.

I for one have no idea if Gonzales or Maye would do this, history on QBs says absolutely no, but for CBs like him is more unclear

OFC contract extension's are always trade-off situations. The player is looking to shift injury risk to the team, the team is looking to leverage that for not just a more favorable contract than they might otherwise get if they waited but also to achieve a degree of roster stability and cost certainty. That last is often overlooked but to a team looking to establish their long range vision, it is no small thing.

The Patriots are the only team that can put more money in either of their pockets while they are under contract. From the team's perspective, if the obvious goal is to keep a player, it only makes sense that they would look at opening negotiations while they have some leverage. From the year 3 player's perspective, the risk of a career ending/impacting injury or a down season make locking down guarantees almost as appealing as the present day cash.

Successful 1st round QB's on their initial contracts regularly get extended in the year 3-4 window, It happens more often than not. OFC the volume of successful 1st round QB's to unsuccessful ones skews the results on the overall contract volume. I think we can both agree we hope and expect Maye to be in the former rather than the latter group.

Gonzalez has been in the league 2 years and has already seen injury derail a season. He has more real life experience with how quickly everything can go to hell than many players in his contract position. That alone certainly gives him incentive to negotiate .

In both cases, the player and team should be motivated to get something done sooner rather than later. Although clearly, more incentive for Gonzalez's position group than Maye's.

 

[PatsFan2]

Yes, not spending did devastate the team last year. And guess what? The Pats changed things. They fired Mayo and coaching staff. They hired Vrabel and put him in charge of personnel. We are changing our strategy.

This year's free agency sucked. The two players the Pats would have grossly overpaid for beyond Williams decided to stay with their current teams rather than seriously test free agency. That doesn't mean the Pats should just use that money and just throw it at other players.

And I am talking about the Commanders' playoff run as abnormal. And it rare for a 4 win team to go to the playoffs the next year with a regime change. It is exceptionally rare for them to go from 4 wins one year to 12 wins the next like the Commanders did. Even rarer for them to go to the NFCCG. A typical bump from a regime change is like 3-5 more wins.

And how do we know the Pats won't have a similar bump this upcoming season? We haven't even hit the draft yet. It isn't likely they will have the success the Commanders had, but they could certainly have a chance to be a Wild Card team this year if their moves hit.

With Diggs and Aiyuk very possible: the AFC is not the Power Conference anymore.

 

[imahobgoblin]

So then no one cares what players you want. Was there a point?

We have signed 90% of the free agents we pursued the last 2 years. It’s moronic to say no one wants to play here.

What does Deshaun Watson have to do with anything?
I want to use all of the resources we have to put the best team on the field.
I have never, ever advocated spending money just to spend it, I want it spent to make the team better.
Last year we sat and watched a team built that was signing players off practice squads and starting them. During that off season when we left about 40 million in the table there were dozens of players better than what we had that would have made the team better. Deshaun Watson wasn’t one of them. Some were signed for the vet minimum, others 3,5,7 mill a year, whatever was.

It seems that YOU in fact are the one that thinks the only way to build a football team is throwing top dollars at players, and if you can’t find them you just accept that you suck and keep pushing out the sucking for more years.

A winning football team has players at every pay group, and often wins because the lower paid guys return much more value than their cost.
A losing team leaves money in the bank and starts Demontrey Jacobs at RT, because they didn’t go and get a player during free agency.
If Robert krafts bank account is your priority, you are the only fan I have ever met who cares more about the owners finances than the product on the field.

Andy, or should I just start calling you NEM, I don't care. You don't actually read or try to comprehend what people actually write. You just go off on these tangents and make up crap. No one cares anymore. Its just incoherent babbling.

 

[Ross12]

3 years isn’t really a good sample size.
As you can see due to the nature of NFL contracts and the cap, cash varies widely year to year.

When you have fewer players under contract and a lot of cap space, much of that years cap is from amortized signing bonuses. Then if you have a stacked roster and are flush against the cap, you cash will be low. This is because signing bonuses count year 1 as cash but over time as cap.

At least 5 years, and probably 8-10 would be the best gauge.
The patriots ranking in these 3 is skewed higher because of 2021.

What makes 3 years any worse than 10 years? Spending is spending. If Kraft has been spending more recently then that should be pretty relevant.

It was posted here many times. I don’t have the time to go find it, but the patriots were last or next to last in cash spent over a big sample, something like 20 years.
Bb also mentioned it in 2023, we were at or near the bottom in cash spent over an extended period.

*note that due to the nature of NFL contracts cash spent varies widely from year to year, so you have to use a large sample size of years to get a true result

So you don't have evidence?

Grok says we are 28th over the last 10 years.

Ahhh got it. Well who am I to argue with an AI output?

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, not spending did devastate the team last year. And guess what? The Pats changed things. They fired Mayo and coaching staff. They hired Vrabel and put him in charge of personnel. We are changing our strategy.

This year's free agency sucked. The two players the Pats would have grossly overpaid for beyond Williams decided to stay with their current teams rather than seriously test free agency. That doesn't mean the Pats should just use that money and just throw it at other players.

And I am talking about the Commanders' playoff run as abnormal. And it rare for a 4 win team to go to the playoffs the next year with a regime change. It is exceptionally rare for them to go from 4 wins one year to 12 wins the next like the Commanders did. Even rarer for them to go to the NFCCG. A typical bump from a regime change is like 3-5 more wins.

And how do we know the Pats won't have a similar bump this upcoming season? We haven't even hit the draft yet. It isn't likely they will have the success the Commanders had, but they could certainly have a chance to be a Wild Card team this year if their moves hit

They need to finish the job, and yes that means improving depth with the remaining cap space. Every indication is that Vrabel agrees with what I am saying.