Theory - Scoring Will Drop Noticeably This Season

[DropKickFlutie]

The NFL changed the kickoff rules and based on pre-season results, it looks like there will be dramatically more offensive possessions that start from the 20 yard line. This is anywhere from 5 to 15 yards further back from where teams were accustomed to starting from last year. This might not seem like much, but 10 yards can make a dramatic difference in terms of offensive outcome and whether a team scores a touchdown, field goal, or has to punt.

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One ramification raised by someone here before was the kick returner will now evolve from being just a speed guy to a player with more punt-return-like skills. I also think the punt returner will become increasingly important, because more offensive possessions will end up punting from deep in their own territory and allow for more punt returns (as opposed to touch backs off punts).

 

[Metaphors]

I see it differently. Field position is a give-n-take. If you give up some on the kickoff return, the other team gains it back on the subsequent punt return (if the team doesn't score).

I think the impact will be more wild swings in scoring. Either more blowouts or more big comebacks. There should be more feedback loops:

- Kickoff and pin team inside the 20
- Hold them to 3-and-out or just one first down
- Punt and get good field position
- Score
- Repeat

A big kickoff return was one way for a team to break out of this rut. That takes a weapon away for teams with struggling offenses, particularly with QBs that struggle in the shadow of their goal line.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I see it differently. Field position is a give-n-take. If you give up some on the kickoff return, the other team gains it back on the subsequent punt return (if the team doesn't score).

I think the impact will be more wild swings in scoring. Either more blowouts or more big comebacks. There should be more feedback loops:

- Kickoff and pin team inside the 20
- Hold them to 3-and-out or just one first down
- Punt and get good field position
- Score
- Repeat

A big kickoff return was one way for a team to break out of this rut. That takes a weapon away for teams with struggling offenses, particularly with QBs that struggle in the shadow of their goal line.

It depends. Maybe the rate of scoring after playing good defense goes up a bit, but does that off set the percentages lost that an offense would have scored off their kickoff drives? It's not that kickoffs had frequent run-backs, but that those extra 10 yards in initial field position end up changing the scoring probabilities dramatically. I agree with you that perhaps you get better field position after playing good defense, but I think NFL punters can easily kick very deep in opponent territory, even from their own 30 yard line. I think the real beneficiaries of this rule will be the punt-return and punt-coverage teams, which become a bit more important with the decreased chances of punt touch backs.

 

[billdog3484]

i agree. i had a post a week or two ago saying the same thing...the writer of your article must have read my post

 

[Deus Irae]

Fewer scores post kickoffs will likely lead to more scores on followup drives.

 

[patriot lifer]

You've also got the effect of fewer practices to consider. We often think of defenses as being ahead of offenses to start the season (I don't know what the actual statistics are), and we could see this dynamic play out more strongly this year as offenses take longer to get into rhythm.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I too feel like defense will slowly start to make a comeback in the league. If they don't keep making rules to favor QB's/WR's the defenses around the league will find ways to overcome them as years go by IMO. The kickoff rule helps lower scores too.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

i can see some discrepency in scoring with the new kickoff rules. I do think this will hurt streaky or worse offenses more than better offenses.

likewise a strong defense can be more important than ever. Imagine how the rules committe will review this if they want more scoring. No touching the reciever at any point while they are over the line of scrimmage. :bricks:

 

[Synovia]

You've also got the effect of fewer practices to consider. We often think of defenses as being ahead of offenses to start the season (I don't know what the actual statistics are), and we could see this dynamic play out more strongly this year as offenses take longer to get into rhythm.

Defenses having and advantage doesn't necessarily lead to less scoring though, often it leads to more (due to turnovers causing huge swings in field position)

 

[TruthSeeker]

I find the theory very interesting (read: wrong) that a 5-yard change in starting kick position will end up being somewhere around a 10-yard change in starting field position by the receiving team.

My estimate is that the real change in starting field position will be perhaps 4 yards - and 3-1/2 yards wouldn't surprise me. It's easy to determine that the starting field position for touchbacks last year will equal the starting field position for touchbacks this year (i.e. both will start on the 20). Assuming that there are more touchbacks this year (which there will be), then kickoffs which are touchbacks this year would in previous years needed to be returned to the 25 in order to maintain even a 5-yard advantage. But it should be noted that blocking penalties on the receiving team are not infrequent and have a decidedly negative impact on starting field position - a negative impact that felt when taking a touchback.

I see no reason why returning the ball this year would be much different than in previous years for balls that are actually returned. Just imagine the whole field shifted 5 yards and note that everything else is exactly the same - what is really different? The only other difference is the kickoff team not building up quite as much momentum by only have 5 yards to run before the kick. But this favors the returning team and argues that there will be less than a 5-yard difference! The thought that this aspect of the rule change may lessen injuries is laughable as the kickoff team members will reach full speed long before there is any contact; the only difference will be a very slight increase in time to get down the field because they started fractionally slower. Any lessening of injuries should be solely due to the increase in touchbacks.

So, scoring by the offense would be negatively impacted when receiving a kickoff by these 4 yards. But, as noted elsewhere, if the offense doesn't move the ball well than the opposing team's offense has a 4 yard advantage in their starting position which will partially offset the expected lower scoring. My prediction? Scoring very marginally lower, say 2% or so.

 

[patriot lifer]

Defenses having and advantage doesn't necessarily lead to less scoring though, often it leads to more (due to turnovers causing huge swings in field position)

Yeah, I guess we'd have to analyze the historical stats to see what tends to happen. Certainly a lot of dynamics and variables are at work. I couldn't find any readily available stats online...so I gave up.

 

[Wolfpack]

Fewer scores post kickoffs will likely lead to more scores on followup drives.

Even if that is true, then what that means is that it will take, on average, more drives following a kickoff in order to get a team to score. So the net effect will be a decrease in scoring when there is more time between scores.

The whole reason the kickoff was moved to the 30 yard line in the first place was to increase scoring and it was seen as something that was working. So it follows that returning to the 35 yard line will have a decrease. I don't think it will be super-huge or noticeable on an individual game basis, but it will probably be 3-5 points per game across the board.

 

[ausbacker]

Even if that is true, then what that means is that it will take, on average, more drives following a kickoff in order to get a team to score. So the net effect will be a decrease in scoring when there is more time between scores.

The whole reason the kickoff was moved to the 30 yard line in the first place was to increase scoring and it was seen as something that was working. So it follows that returning to the 35 yard line will have a decrease. I don't think it will be super-huge or noticeable on an individual game basis, but it will probably be 3-5 points per game across the board.

That's dependent on the amount of first return scoring drives both historically and projected.

 

[PromisedLand]

I predict that next year the Competition Committee will realize they made a huge mistake and tinker with the kickoff rules again. They won't just go back to what we had last year though - they will do something else like let the kicker kick off from the 35 but make the coverage start at the 30. Or something equally contrived.

 

[JJDChE]

I ran the numbers last week. The average starting field position this preseason is actually barely less than last preseason and it is better than last regular season. It doesn't seem like it watching the games, but that's what the numbers say:

Avg. Start Position
2010 Pre-season: 26.7 yd line
2011 Pre-season: 25.2 yd line
2010 Reg. Season: 24.1 yd line

 

[Deus Irae]

I ran the numbers last week. The average starting field position this preseason is actually barely less than last preseason and it is better than last regular season. It doesn't seem like it watching the games, but that's what the numbers say:

Avg. Start Position
2010 Pre-season: 26.7 yd line
2011 Pre-season: 25.2 yd line
2010 Reg. Season: 24.1 yd line

This year's exhibition data isn't reliable for what you're trying to do here, because teams have been trying to figure out how they plan to attack the new rules. Teams have been deliberately taking out kicks they'd normally (even in exhibition season) touch back.

 

[JJDChE]

This year's exhibition data isn't reliable for what you're trying to do here, because teams have been trying to figure out how they plan to attack the new rules. Teams have been deliberately taking out kicks they'd normally (even in exhibition season) touch back.

I think that hurts the starting position. I've seen a lot more of those returns get stopped before the 20 than after it. (maybe it's because I've watched Tate return a bunch kicks this preseason)

It will shift in the regular season, but I think a change of 5-10 yards from last year is a huge overstatement of the effect of the rule change.

There certainly will be more drives starting at the 20. There have been twice as many TBs this preseason, even with guys taking them back from the back line.

 

[Wolfpack]

I ran the numbers last week. The average starting field position this preseason is actually barely less than last preseason and it is better than last regular season. It doesn't seem like it watching the games, but that's what the numbers say:

Avg. Start Position
2010 Pre-season: 26.7 yd line
2011 Pre-season: 25.2 yd line
2010 Reg. Season: 24.1 yd line

Preseason stats are meaningless. I saw countless times where teams were deliberately committing penalties on the kickoffs in order to go back to the 30. That won't be happening next week.

 

[JJDChE]

Preseason stats are meaningless. I saw countless times where teams were deliberately committing penalties on the kickoffs in order to go back to the 30. That won't be happening next week.

I never saw that happen, maybe once, so I think 'countless' is probably an exaggeration.

Take it for what it's worth, like every other stat. It doesn't mean that the average starting position is going to be the 25 this season, though it does probably mean that it won't be the 18.

 

[JJDChE]

For reference, PPG, NFL average:

2010: 22.0
2009: 21.5
2008: 22.0
2007: 21.7
2006: 20.7
2005: 20.6
2004: 21.5
2003: 20.8
2002: 20.1
2001: 20.2


Maybe they actually want to reign in scoring. 2008 and 2010 were the first season scoring reached 22.0 PPG. It's been over 21 several times since 1980.