The Way We Hear It - Draft Rumors

[DaBruinz]

Saturday when your nightmares become realities.

Could you please name the last Saban produced pick that the Patriots took?

Andre Smith is one of the most immature people around. From being suspended for the Bowl games to walking out on the combine and not telling anyone. Add to that the less then spectacular Pro-Day.

I think that the only reason the Pats brought him in is to see if he might be worth a 2nd rounder. From what I've seen, he's the antithesis of a Patriots player.

 

[patchick]

Could you please name the last Saban produced pick that the Patriots took?

Wes Welker.

 

[BelichickFan]

Could you please name the last Saban produced pick that the Patriots took?

That's a little unfair as he took his hiatus in Miami. We know Belichick took a few Saban players from LSU and it's reasonable to think he will again. I don't think anyone would be shocked if we drafted Rashad Johnson a little higher than his media ranking.

Regarding Smith, he reminds me of LenDale White - not a BAD person but just too soft to live up to his potential as a football player. That said, those who know him seem to think he needs to go to a strong, structured team so he could do very well with the Patriots.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Interesting about Maybin ...

 

[patsfaninpa]

That's a little unfair as he took his hiatus in Miami. We know Belichick took a few Saban players from LSU and it's reasonable to think he will again. I don't think anyone would be shocked if we drafted Rashad Johnson a little higher than his media ranking.

Regarding Smith, he reminds me of LenDale White - not a BAD person but just too soft to live up to his potential as a football player. That said, those who know him seem to think he needs to go to a strong, structured team so he could do very well with the Patriots.

Wasn't that the knock on Wilfork coming out of Miami. Great talent not in the greatest shape. Here are the knocks on A. Smith.

1. Suspended for Sugar Bowl. For contacting an agent. I'd be willing to bet most top 10 players have contacted an agent at some point in December when they are trying to
determine who represents them. He got caught. Not a big deal to me in any way.

2. He wasn't prepared for the combine. Definately makes you raise an eyebrow. Probably not getting good advice from his agent on how to prepare. And, I believe he has changed
agents since. A little worried but not overly concerned. Then I put the game tape on from last year and my worries go away. This kid dominated the SEC. Didn't just play well in a
league like the Big Least.

3. Pro Day. There just wasn't enough time between the combine and their pro-day to improve his conditioning status too much. I call Saban and ask him if Smith is coachable and prepared to play week-to-week. He confirms that he is.

 

[dryheat44]

This kid dominated the SEC..

Did he really....or is that just the common logic? Smith is a substandard pass-blocker. He got dominated in the Tennessee and LSU games, and even the kid at Arkansas St (Wakwe?) reportedly gave Smith fits.

He's just a bad fit here. He needs to be in a run-first, straight-ahead, power-blocking scheme. Guys like Mathis and Phillips are going to abuse him at the next level.

 

[mgteich]

The other side

A) Based on his college career, you know actual game situations, he was considered the best talent in the draft and considered a possible first pick in the draft.

B) Smith (or someone) chose a terrible agent for Smith. Smith accepted $100 from the agent and likely took advice on a couple of occasions. In any case, the agent was doing his job. Smith has since changed agents and starting moving back up in th mocks. Some have Cinci picking him.

C) Belichick will have personal interviews with the player and information from coaches regarding Smith's coachability. Smith wouldn't be the first player with immaturity issues that became a patriot. BTW, Smith has been publicly interviewed and seems to be a fine player and person.

MY BOTTOM LINE
If we trade up for Smith, I would expect him to be a fine addition to the team. His talent is equal to the other top OT's so we would be getting the equivalent of the #1 pick in the draft for much less money with the luxury of working the youngster into the lineup.

AND JUST BY THE WAY
I feel the same about Maualuga. He is a top 10 talent. If Belichick drafts him, then I expect that he is satisfied with his ability to understand the game and learn the play book, and has a plan to fit him into our schemes.

This is more that just trusting Bill with regard to talent. Almost everyone agrees that these two are top talents.

Wasn't that the knock on Wilfork coming out of Miami. Great talent not in the greatest shape. Here are the knocks on A. Smith.

1. Suspended for Sugar Bowl. For contacting an agent. I'd be willing to bet most top 10 players have contacted an agent at some point in December when they are trying to
determine who represents them. He got caught. Not a big deal to me in any way.

2. He wasn't prepared for the combine. Definately makes you raise an eyebrow. Probably not getting good advice from his agent on how to prepare. And, I believe he has changed
agents since. A little worried but not overly concerned. Then I put the game tape on from last year and my worries go away. This kid dominated the SEC. Didn't just play well in a
league like the Big Least.

3. Pro Day. There just wasn't enough time between the combine and their pro-day to improve his conditioning status too much. I call Saban and ask him if Smith is coachable and prepared to play week-to-week. He confirms that he is.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Did he really....or is that just the common logic? Smith is a substandard pass-blocker. He got dominated in the Tennessee and LSU games, and even the kid at Arkansas St (Wakwe?) reportedly gave Smith fits.

He's just a bad fit here. He needs to be in a run-first, straight-ahead, power-blocking scheme. Guys like Mathis and Phillips are going to abuse him at the next level.

Here's a scouting report that disputes your theory on the Tennessee and LSU games.
They have a game by game report. Please check out the games where you say he struggled. Just because a guy gives up a sack doesn't mean he got dominated. I remember all of the people who said Gholston dominated Jake Long because of that. Who is the better NFL player of those two. Not comparing A.Smith to J.Long. I loved Long. Just glad he's not at Michigan any longer since I'm a PSU fan.

Andre Smith, Alabama, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com Football

 

[dryheat44]

Here's a scouting report that disputes your theory on the Tennessee and LSU games.
They have a game by game report. Please check out the games where you say he struggled. Just because a guy gives up a sack doesn't mean he got dominated. I remember all of the people who said Gholston dominated Jake Long because of that. Who is the better NFL player of those two. Not comparing A.Smith to J.Long. I loved Long. Just glad he's not at Michigan any longer since I'm a PSU fan.

Andre Smith, Alabama, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com Football

I'm not going to read through the game reports, because line dominance is generally not reflected. Giving up a sack doesn't mean he got dominated, but by the same token, because a defensive player didn't get many sacks doesn't mean he didn't control the line of scrimmage, or forced a running back to alter the play, or got pressure on the quarterback resulting in a hit after the throw or a rushed throw. Evidence isn't going to exist in either direction. But read what the scouts who look at game film are saying. You could start with Mayock.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm not going to read through the game reports, because line dominance is generally not reflected. Giving up a sack doesn't mean he got dominated, but by the same token, because a defensive player didn't get many sacks doesn't mean he didn't control the line of scrimmage, or forced a running back to alter the play, or got pressure on the quarterback resulting in a hit after the throw or a rushed throw. Evidence isn't going to exist in either direction. But read what the scouts who look at game film are saying. You could start with Mayock.

Just read the 2 damn games you said he got dominated!

 

[WhiZa]

4. On the OG prospects: “I’m not sure there is a great guard in this draft class. To be honest, if we had to have one early, I would take one of the centers and make him a guard. I’d take Max Unger or Eric Wood early before I drafted a guard highly. Unger is so smart.”

I totally agree with this, especially for the Pats as BB loves his OL to be versatile.

 

[DaBruinz]

That's a little unfair as he took his hiatus in Miami. We know Belichick took a few Saban players from LSU and it's reasonable to think he will again. I don't think anyone would be shocked if we drafted Rashad Johnson a little higher than his media ranking.

No, it isn't unfair. Its perfectly fair. And just because he took 2 years in Miami doesn't mean anything. There were still players at LSU that he could have commented on to BB prior to his leaving for Miami. And he's been in Alabama for 2 years now.

If you go back and look, the last player the Pats took who played for Saban was Marquis Hill.

Regarding Smith, he reminds me of LenDale White - not a BAD person but just too soft to live up to his potential as a football player. That said, those who know him seem to think he needs to go to a strong, structured team so he could do very well with the Patriots.

LenDale White put up over 1000 yards in 2007 to go with 7 TDs. In 2008, Chris Johnson saw more carries, but White still put up 15 TDs as he was their short-yardage back..

As for Andre Smith, I just don't see that sort of attitude being worth a 1st round pick or even a mid 2nd, to be honest. I think the Patriots would rather go with someone who doesn't need the motivation to be a damn good player.

 

[Ungeheuer]

I don't see the Patriots getting Andre Smith. Maybe you trade up for a guy with no question marks, but not this guy. If he falls to #23, maybe, but that would have to involve some kind of report that hasn't come out yet -- a drug test, a knee issue, something.

As for BB taking Saban picks, there were quite a few. Hill, Green, Davey, T.J. Turner, Greg Robinson-Randall. And then don't forget Randall Gay and Eric Alexander. That's seven guys in about as many years, if you subtract the years Saban was in the NFL. Which is an awfully strong tendency.

BB picking guys who were coached by his former friends is practically a guarantee every year -- and not for one pick but more like two. If you include UDFAs, it's ridiculous. Just look at the list:

2008 - Vince Redd (played for Al Groh at Virginia before transferring), Jon Stupar (VA), Keith Saunders (Alabama), Ryan Wendell (Fresno St.)
2007 - Mike Richardson (ND), Mike Elgin (Iowa)
2006 - Dan Stevenson (ND) Corey Mays and Matt Shelton (ND) Brian Barthelmes (VA)
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders (Fresno St.)
2004 - Marquise Hill (LSU), Dexter Reid (UNC), Randall Gay, Eric Alexander (LSU)
2003 -
2002 - Rohan Davey and Jarvis Green (LSU), Antwone Womack (VA)
2001 - T.J. Turner (Michigan St.)
2000 - Greg Robinson-Randall (Michigan St.)

So 2003 is an outlier, but in the other years you can almost bank on him picking someone coached by a former employee of his. If you throw in guys who are just his friends, like Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano, then the probability gets even bigger.

Also don't forget BC. Their offensive coordinator now is Greg Tranquill, who used to be BB's offensive coordinator in Cleveland. Tranquill recommended Dexter Reid (oops) to BB back when he was at UNC. You'd have to think that puts Ron Brace, Ryan Purvis, Robert Francois, Kevin Akins, and Cliff Ramsey on the short list. Maybe even Brandon Robinson, who was all-ACC honorable mention at receiver. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of those guys in camp.

I know I'm digressing, but...

 

[DaBruinz]

Here's a scouting report that disputes your theory on the Tennessee and LSU games.
They have a game by game report. Please check out the games where you say he struggled. Just because a guy gives up a sack doesn't mean he got dominated. I remember all of the people who said Gholston dominated Jake Long because of that. Who is the better NFL player of those two. Not comparing A.Smith to J.Long. I loved Long. Just glad he's not at Michigan any longer since I'm a PSU fan.

Andre Smith, Alabama, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com Football

Its a huge fallacy to say that Long is a better player than Gholston after just 1 year. You can't evaluate a player until he's played 3 years in the league, unless he's out by then.. Then he's a bust.

Next, its a big misconception to think that his changing agents is a good thing for him. Its not like he changed agents immediately after the combine. He waited until last week to make the change. If anything, it re-inforces the idea that the kid doesn't think his actions through.

I'd like to point you all to several other players who had great skills, but were also immature. PK Sam. Chad Jackson. Ryan Leaf. Charles Rogers. Mike Williams. All of them busted with immaturity being a big factor. And that is just a few off the top of my head.

 

[BelichickFan]

LenDale White put up over 1000 yards in 2007 to go with 7 TDs. In 2008, Chris Johnson saw more carries, but White still put up 15 TDs as he was their short-yardage back..

I think LenDale White is soft and not the player he could be. You are absolutely right that he's a good, solid player. And that's how I see Smith, I think he'll be a good player and one who would make a good RT for us. But, like White, I don't think he'll be as good as he could be.

 

[DaBruinz]

I don't see the Patriots getting Andre Smith. Maybe you trade up for a guy with no question marks, but not this guy. If he falls to #23, maybe, but that would have to involve some kind of report that hasn't come out yet -- a drug test, a knee issue, something.

As for BB taking Saban picks, there were quite a few. Hill, Green, Davey, T.J. Turner, Greg Robinson-Randall. And then don't forget Randall Gay and Eric Alexander. That's seven guys in about as many years, if you subtract the years Saban was in the NFL. Which is an awfully strong tendency.

BB picking guys who were coached by his former friends is practically a guarantee every year -- and not for one pick but more like two. If you include UDFAs, it's ridiculous. Just look at the list:

2008 - Vince Redd (played for Al Groh at Virginia before transferring), Jon Stupar (VA), Keith Saunders (Alabama), Ryan Wendell (Fresno St.)
2007 - Mike Richardson (ND), Mike Elgin (Iowa)
2006 - Dan Stevenson (ND) Corey Mays and Matt Shelton (ND) Brian Barthelmes (VA)
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders (Fresno St.)
2004 - Marquise Hill (LSU), Dexter Reid (UNC), Randall Gay, Eric Alexander (LSU)
2003 -
2002 - Rohan Davey and Jarvis Green (LSU), Antwone Womack (VA)
2001 - T.J. Turner (Michigan St.)
2000 - Greg Robinson-Randall (Michigan St.)

So 2003 is an outlier, but in the other years you can almost bank on him picking someone coached by a former employee of his. If you throw in guys who are just his friends, like Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano, then the probability gets even bigger.

Also don't forget BC. Their offensive coordinator now is Greg Tranquill, who used to be BB's offensive coordinator in Cleveland. Tranquill recommended Dexter Reid (oops) to BB back when he was at UNC. You'd have to think that puts Ron Brace, Ryan Purvis, Robert Francois, Kevin Akins, and Cliff Ramsey on the short list. Maybe even Brandon Robinson, who was all-ACC honorable mention at receiver. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of those guys in camp.

I know I'm digressing, but...

Ungerheuer - I actually have a post somewhere of all the picks and who could have commented on them through 2007. It worked out to be about 57%. I'll have to see if I can't find the document on my old HDD and re-post it. I am also working on a list to get posted of all the prospects in the top 300 who either played for or played against people from the "Belichick Tree" or whom Belichick is friends with.

Here is the link that is on Patsfans.
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...3/206688-analysis-pipeline-picks-updated.html

Please note that I don't include Al Groh or Greg Tranquill in that list, but I will be in the next list.

 

[dryheat44]

Just read the 2 damn games you said he got dominated!

OK, I read them. They seem about as relevant as a highlight package on Youtube....and I stand by my statement. There's a lot that goes into line play that isn't captured.

Part of Mayock's generous grade of Ayers is that he positively owned Smith in that game....I didn't happen to watch that one, but I'll defer to Mayock.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's an article from Steve Wyche at NFL.com on teams that will shape the draft on Saturday, including the Pats:

Handful of teams will dictate how first round will play out

 

[JSn]

Here's an article from Steve Wyche at NFL.com on teams that will shape the draft on Saturday, including the Pats:

Handful of teams will dictate how first round will play out

Interesting that Wyche mentions the Peppers trade as one pick also. IF this deal goes down, I'll be mighty curious (probably without cure) as to why it dragged out so long.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't see the Patriots getting Andre Smith. Maybe you trade up for a guy with no question marks, but not this guy. If he falls to #23, maybe, but that would have to involve some kind of report that hasn't come out yet -- a drug test, a knee issue, something.

As for BB taking Saban picks, there were quite a few. Hill, Green, Davey, T.J. Turner, Greg Robinson-Randall. And then don't forget Randall Gay and Eric Alexander. That's seven guys in about as many years, if you subtract the years Saban was in the NFL. Which is an awfully strong tendency.

BB picking guys who were coached by his former friends is practically a guarantee every year -- and not for one pick but more like two. If you include UDFAs, it's ridiculous. Just look at the list:

2008 - Vince Redd (played for Al Groh at Virginia before transferring), Jon Stupar (VA), Keith Saunders (Alabama), Ryan Wendell (Fresno St.)
2007 - Mike Richardson (ND), Mike Elgin (Iowa)
2006 - Dan Stevenson (ND) Corey Mays and Matt Shelton (ND) Brian Barthelmes (VA)
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders (Fresno St.)
2004 - Marquise Hill (LSU), Dexter Reid (UNC), Randall Gay, Eric Alexander (LSU)
2003 -
2002 - Rohan Davey and Jarvis Green (LSU), Antwone Womack (VA)
2001 - T.J. Turner (Michigan St.)
2000 - Greg Robinson-Randall (Michigan St.)

So 2003 is an outlier, but in the other years you can almost bank on him picking someone coached by a former employee of his. If you throw in guys who are just his friends, like Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano, then the probability gets even bigger.

Also don't forget BC. Their offensive coordinator now is Greg Tranquill, who used to be BB's offensive coordinator in Cleveland. Tranquill recommended Dexter Reid (oops) to BB back when he was at UNC. You'd have to think that puts Ron Brace, Ryan Purvis, Robert Francois, Kevin Akins, and Cliff Ramsey on the short list. Maybe even Brandon Robinson, who was all-ACC honorable mention at receiver. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of those guys in camp.

I know I'm digressing, but...

When you look the list over you see 2 Day One picks and 3 Fourth Round picks, plus a handful of Late Round and UDFA lads...which suggests BB relies on his buddies for inside info on borderline prospects and his scouts for the high end prospects.