The Up, the Down, and the Unknown: Run Defense

[Sicilian]

So, I'm bored, so I decided to take a look at different aspects of the team and point out areas/players where I expect improvement, ones where I see a definite downgrade, and others where the question marks could swing either way. Obviously things could change after the draft, but given that every rookie would fit in the Unknown category, I figured I could skip it for now.

Also, bear in mind that this is done in relation to last year. If an area was weak last year, and looks similarly weak this year, I don't list it anywhere.

First aspect: The Run Defense

The Up

1) The Scheme - I believe the 3-4 as a scheme is traditionally more stout against the run, so if we play more of this it should improve the overall run defense all other things equal.

2) DE - I believe Fanene is a better run stopping DE than anyone we had on the team last year. Combine that with another full camp and more experience for Deaderick, and I think we've got a solid run stopping DL on early downs.

3) Mayo - We all know Mayo is good, but IMO he fits his role in the 3-4 better than he did in the 4-3. Putting him into the best position to succeed should see an improvement in his run defense.

The Down

1) Really only one that I can think of as a definite down: OLB - Right now, I think that Ninkovich is pretty much as good as he's going to get. He's solid, and the kind of guy you need on the team, but he's not going to make anymore huge leaps in run defense. Him being equal, the opposite OLB right now is non-existent. Between Scott and Cunningham, there's a big weakness forming there against the run. Re-signing Carter will help by adding depth, but he's never been seen as a great run stopper, and it remains to be seen if he can succeed without his hand on the ground.

The Unknown

1) Kyle Love - Where does he fit in? He might be too big and immobile to play DE for us consistently. It's possible they could use him some at NT and move Wilfork outside which would be a very good run stopping DL, but would they do that very often given how slow we'd be then up front? His role could swing the run defense.

2) Secondary play - Obviously improved tackling and experience from the DBs would help, but I'm thinking more about their ability to pass cover. If BB gains more confidence in his corners to play man and the other safety to cover deep, it frees up Chung to play closer to the line.

3) The Health of Chung/Spikes - The defense in general played better when both these guys were in, but I felt it was most noticeable against the run. If these guys are there for most of the games, they'll make a huge difference. If they're not, this run defense drops by a significant margin. You could say the same about Mayo, Wilfork, etc, but these two have a history of missing some time in recent years so it's something to watch.


What are your thoughts? Anything to add or comment on?

 

[supafly]

I think the thread itself is a good idea, and a worthy discussion.

I don't have any earth shattering thoughts to add, so forgive me--I'm keeping a close eye on the hockey game.

I think the run defense itself was about 'average' last yr. There were games like the DAL one where they looked very stout, and others where they certainly did not.

Our strong run defense has been a staple before, and the addition of some youth and speed in the draft should hopefully improve that aspect next season. The (supposed) move back to a 3-4 base will also benefit that situation.

Of course, the secondary was so poor the majority of the year that most teams simply chose to kill us with the pass.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I must express this heretical thought.

The Patriots secondary is not terrible. It was devastated with lots of injuries last season. When healthy and with the changes BB has already made in vet FAs, and only a normal amount of injuries, it could even be very good.

This very young Defense just needs some more experience, playing together. I firmly belive the talent is already there. It should become the prime portion of the Team aboutwhen the Offense needs to transition QBs, in a few years.

 

[Sicilian]

I think the thread itself is a good idea, and a worthy discussion.

I don't have any earth shattering thoughts to add, so forgive me--I'm keeping a close eye on the hockey game.

I think the run defense itself was about 'average' last yr. There were games like the DAL one where they looked very stout, and others where they certainly did not.

Our strong run defense has been a staple before, and the addition of some youth and speed in the draft should hopefully improve that aspect next season. The (supposed) move back to a 3-4 base will also benefit that situation.

Of course, the secondary was so poor the majority of the year that most teams simply chose to kill us with the pass.

Agreed, and if we're assuming the offense will be good to great again next year, it won't be a the major concern on defense in 2012 either. But an improvement would mean longer 3rd downs, which is never a bad thing.

I must express this heretical thought.

The Patriots secondary is not terrible. It was devastated with lots of injuries last season. When healthy and with the changes BB has already made in vet FAs, and only a normal amount of injuries, it could even be very good.

This very young Defense just needs some more experience, playing together. I firmly belive the talent is already there. It should become the prime portion of the Team aboutwhen the Offense needs to transition QBs, in a few years.

There's definitely potential in a lot of the DBs, but their level of play last year was sub-par. IMO it was the coverage ability of the secondary that hurt us far more than the pass rush, which I actually thought was decent. If the young guys step up, I think you'll see a safety playing low more often, at least early in the game while teams are attacking us with more balance.

 

[Mystery Pats Fan]

So, I'm bored, so I decided to take a look at different aspects of the team and point out areas/players where I expect improvement, ones where I see a definite downgrade, and others where the question marks could swing either way. Obviously things could change after the draft, but given that every rookie would fit in the Unknown category, I figured I could skip it for now.

Also, bear in mind that this is done in relation to last year. If an area was weak last year, and looks similarly weak this year, I don't list it anywhere.

First aspect: The Run Defense

The Up

1) The Scheme - I believe the 3-4 as a scheme is traditionally more stout against the run, so if we play more of this it should improve the overall run defense all other things equal.

2) DE - I believe Fanene is a better run stopping DE than anyone we had on the team last year. Combine that with another full camp and more experience for Deaderick, and I think we've got a solid run stopping DL on early downs.

3) Mayo - We all know Mayo is good, but IMO he fits his role in the 3-4 better than he did in the 4-3. Putting him into the best position to succeed should see an improvement in his run defense.

The Down

1) Really only one that I can think of as a definite down: OLB - Right now, I think that Ninkovich is pretty much as good as he's going to get. He's solid, and the kind of guy you need on the team, but he's not going to make anymore huge leaps in run defense. Him being equal, the opposite OLB right now is non-existent. Between Scott and Cunningham, there's a big weakness forming there against the run. Re-signing Carter will help by adding depth, but he's never been seen as a great run stopper, and it remains to be seen if he can succeed without his hand on the ground.

The Unknown

1) Kyle Love - Where does he fit in? He might be too big and immobile to play DE for us consistently. It's possible they could use him some at NT and move Wilfork outside which would be a very good run stopping DL, but would they do that very often given how slow we'd be then up front? His role could swing the run defense.

2) Secondary play - Obviously improved tackling and experience from the DBs would help, but I'm thinking more about their ability to pass cover. If BB gains more confidence in his corners to play man and the other safety to cover deep, it frees up Chung to play closer to the line.

3) The Health of Chung/Spikes - The defense in general played better when both these guys were in, but I felt it was most noticeable against the run. If these guys are there for most of the games, they'll make a huge difference. If they're not, this run defense drops by a significant margin. You could say the same about Mayo, Wilfork, etc, but these two have a history of missing some time in recent years so it's something to watch.


What are your thoughts? Anything to add or comment on?

The down has been weak decisions by defensive coaches, including Belichick, when facing other teams who have a third and long (over 7). dropping off into coverage as opposed to a blitz package has hurt this team far more than helped them.

Give any quarterback in the NFL enough time, rookie or backup, and they will find an open receiver more often than not.

I have found the Pats defensive philosophy in these situations to be very, very weak.

Here's an example from 2008, a decision by the defense, that cost the Patriots a playoff spot...

And this has happened over and over and over again.... I was totally enraged when this happened. I could not believe how soft the defense was playing in that situation, and they still do it.

November 13, 2008:
In overtime, the Jets won the coin-toss and appeared stalled deep in their own territory with a 3rd-and-15 situation. Favre hit tight end Dustin Keller with a 16-yard play and then kept driving until they were in field goal range. Kicker Jay Feely won the game with a 34-yard field goal propelling the Jets into first place.

 

[jmt57]

Good topic of discussion. In my opinion the run defense has escaped scrutiny because there has been so very much focus on the pass rush and pass coverage. That's not to say those two areas don't deserve criticism (they do); just saying that the run defense has been overlooked.

Last year the Patriots allowed 4.63 yards per rushing attempt. Only eight defenses gave up more and every one of them (Carolina, Green Bay, Buffalo, St. Louis, New Orleans, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland) was considered to be subpar - or worse - on defense last year.

The run defense avoided much scrutiny because the Pats offense bailed them out. The Patriots would often take a lead and opponents would respond by throwing more, especially late in the game. People would look at the game stats and the initial reaction would be that the pass defense was horrendous but the run defense did its job. While it is true that the pass defense does need to improve, the run defense could certainly use just as much of an upgrade.

Think of it this way: if an opponent has the lead and wants/needs to take time off the clock in the 4th quarter, how confident are any of us that our run defense could force a three and out, or at least a short drive and a punt?

Vince Wilfork is very good, but he is only one of eleven players on the field; he needs help.

 

[jmt57]

The down has been weak decisions by defensive coaches, including Belichick, when facing other teams who have a third and long (over 7). ...

Excellent point.

Not sure what it has to do with the topic of conversation (run defense) though.

 

[Ring 6]

The down has been weak decisions by defensive coaches, including Belichick, when facing other teams who have a third and long (over 7). dropping off into coverage as opposed to a blitz package has hurt this team far more than helped them.

Give any quarterback in the NFL enough time, rookie or backup, and they will find an open receiver more often than not.

I have found the Pats defensive philosophy in these situations to be very, very weak.

Here's an example from 2008, a decision by the defense, that cost the Patriots a playoff spot...

And this has happened over and over and over again.... I was totally enraged when this happened. I could not believe how soft the defense was playing in that situation, and they still do it.

November 13, 2008:
In overtime, the Jets won the coin-toss and appeared stalled deep in their own territory with a 3rd-and-15 situation. Favre hit tight end Dustin Keller with a 16-yard play and then kept driving until they were in field goal range. Kicker Jay Feely won the game with a 34-yard field goal propelling the Jets into first place.

Bill Belichick is a conservative coach. His overriding defensive philosophy has been to not give up the big play. Heavy blitzing defenses are exposed to the big play.
More and more in the current NFL offenses are prepared to get rid of the ball before pressure reaches the QB. A blitz that doesn't reach the QB is much worse than playing coverage.
I'm not sure how 1 play from 3 seasons ago indicates proof of a poor philosophy.

 

[Ring 6]

Good topic of discussion. In my opinion the run defense has escaped scrutiny because there has been so very much focus on the pass rush and pass coverage. That's not to say those two areas don't deserve criticism (they do); just saying that the run defense has been overlooked.

Last year the Patriots allowed 4.63 yards per rushing attempt. Only eight defenses gave up more and every one of them (Carolina, Green Bay, Buffalo, St. Louis, New Orleans, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland) was considered to be subpar - or worse - on defense last year.

The run defense avoided much scrutiny because the Pats offense bailed them out. The Patriots would often take a lead and opponents would respond by throwing more, especially late in the game. People would look at the game stats and the initial reaction would be that the pass defense was horrendous but the run defense did its job. While it is true that the pass defense does need to improve, the run defense could certainly use just as much of an upgrade.

Think of it this way: if an opponent has the lead and wants/needs to take time off the clock in the 4th quarter, how confident are any of us that our run defense could force a three and out, or at least a short drive and a punt?

Vince Wilfork is very good, but he is only one of eleven players on the field; he needs help.

I agree that the run D was not what we would like it to be, although I think that the amount we played from ahead (plus one bad game of run D in Denver) lessens the impact of ypc as a yardstick.
I didn't think run D was a big issue last year, and I think the raw stats are skewed by runs in pass situations, and QB scrambles, more heavily than most teams.

 

[Sicilian]

I agree that the run D was not what we would like it to be, although I think that the amount we played from ahead (plus one bad game of run D in Denver) lessens the impact of ypc as a yardstick.
I didn't think run D was a big issue last year, and I think the raw stats are skewed by runs in pass situations, and QB scrambles, more heavily than most teams.

I was going to say something similar. Late in games we're playing a LOT of nickel and dime. You replace a linebacker or two with a couple of 190 lb corners and running backs are going to have a bit more room. Of course, BB is probably fine with that in those situations, as a 5 or 6 yard run that takes up 20-30 seconds off the clock is a good tradeoff with a multi-TD lead.

There were times when the run defense was pretty suspect though situationally. The Denver game comes to mind. Even ignoring the total numbers (which are always skewed with Tebow), the running backs in that game had a pretty high YPC even though the Pats knew they were going to run. I can't remember, but I don't think Spikes and Chung played in that game though, which comes back to Unknown #3.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Spikes staying healthy next year is very important to our run defense.

 

[supafly]

Bill Belichick is a conservative coach. His overriding defensive philosophy has been to not give up the big play. Heavy blitzing defenses are exposed to the big play.
More and more in the current NFL offenses are prepared to get rid of the ball before pressure reaches the QB. A blitz that doesn't reach the QB is much worse than playing coverage.
I'm not sure how 1 play from 3 seasons ago indicates proof of a poor philosophy.

Not only that, but IIRC there was enough QB pressure already, as we were within a hair of sacking the NYJ QB on this specific play in OT.

I'm only going by memory though, so I could be thinking of the play prior where Wilfork sacked the QB, setting up a 3rd and long.

Either way, it seemed as though we were getting good pressure with a 4 man push already; so I agree with Belichick's conservative philosophy in this instance.

There have been many times where I have not agreed though, and feel as though we could've tried to blitz a bit more. As you state though, there's a fine line between getting to the QB and getting torched in the secondary.

 

[Mystery Pats Fan]

I

The Patriots secondary is not terrible.

You are correct, it is not terrible. Just one player is, Arrington.

 

[MP-Logick]

Spikes staying healthy next year is very important to our run defense.

Spikes and Chung.

 

[goheels22002]

The Patriots were the definition of mediocrity in run defense in 2011 at 17th of 32 teams. They gave up 117 ypg and were 14th in TDs allowed on the ground. They gave up one rushing play over 40 yards and just ten of 20 yards or more - stopping the big play on the ground.

The passing defense was 31st of 32. If the pass defense could move up to mediocre - 16th in the league, or so - we'd all be happy people. So much of the statistical damage was done in the first half of the season, that I think the defense is better with the experience of the guys the Patriots already have.

The defense got better when they cut Fat Albert Haynesworth.

They've added some guys to the mix - S Steve Gregory was a nice pick up - and we can count on some rookies on the defensive side of the ball.

This was a defense that made it to the Super Bowl suggesting that the defense was at least competent down the stretch and in the playoffs. In the postseason, the Patriots were the 4th-best defense against the pass of 12 teams in the tournament and 7th of 12 against the run - with excellent backs to defend.

 

[makoute]

You are correct, it is not terrible. Just one player is, Arrington.

Are you saying Arrington is or is not terrible?

 

[randomk1]

The first Broncos game was brutal.