The SB defense - statistical anomaly

[ivanvamp]

The Patriots gave up 538 yards and 41 points in the Super Bowl. Just horrific numbers any way you slice it. And that's for sure colored how we view the defense moving forward.

It seemed like a replay from the first four weeks of the year. During those four weeks, the Patriots fielded the worst defense in history, yielding an average of 457 yards and 32 points a game. Just atrocious. So in the Super Bowl, they were WORSE than they were during this historically awful four-game stretch.

But it's more than that. Without looking it up, can you all guess how many times since 2001 the Patriots have given up 41+ points and 530+ yards in a game?

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The answer is ONE. They've played 309 regular and post season games in those 17 years (an average of more than 18 games a year - think about that...they AVERAGE two playoff games a year!), and in those 309 games, they've allowed 41+ points and 530+ yards TWO TIMES.

The other time? The first game of the 2017 season, against KC, where they allowed 537 yards and 42 points. So the 2017 season was bookended by the two worst defensive performances in the BB/TB era. Incredible.

They've had some other bad games of course, but nothing quite like these two. Here are the other games during this 17 year period where they've been kind of close to as bad:

2014 vs KC - 41 points, 443 yards
2012 vs SF - 41 points, 388 yards
2009 vs NO - 38 points, 480 yards
2008 vs Mia - 38 points, 461 yards
2007 vs Ind - 38 points, 455 yards (AFCCG)
2005 vs SD - 41 points, 431 yards
2005 vs Ind - 40 points, 453 yards

But none of those are as bad as the two 2017 games. So I don't think it's remotely fair to say that the SB represents the true level of this Patriots' defense. They're not a top 5 defense, but they're not CLOSE to this bad. So our lasting memory of the 2017 team is the Super Bowl defense, but it really was a terrible statistical outlier and should not remotely be the gauge by which we evaluate their true level.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

You are what your record says you are

-Bill Parcells

 

[Nunchucks]

I agree that it was an anomaly, but the signs of the possibility had popped up throughout the season. How many times during the season did we watch the defense completely suck for 2-3 quarters, only to finally come out of it in the third quarter?

The lack of pass rush, the inability to cover RBs and TEs, and the inconsistency in defending the run had all been visible to us. Heck, even the secondary had long period of looking terrible. Bunch formations and crossing routes were often the bane of the secondary.

This wasn't something new and should have been expected. For the record, I was blind sided too. I thought they ahd fixed these things, but the truth was that they had faced 1-dimensional opponents that could not capitalize on the Patriots defensive problems. The Steelers..I have no idea, but maybe they should have won that game. Teams, especially the Steelers seem to choke when they play the Patriots.

The Eagles did not choke.

 

[Uptown]

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I think a lot of the “improvement” on D last year had to do with them facing easier opponents. The D clearly struggled against KC, Houston, Car and Pitt.

 

[Deus Irae]

What made the SB look even worse was the starting CB standing on the sidelines instead of playing in the game, but the specific numbers of the SB are irrelevant. The defense was not as good as the scoring rank indicated, and that was something we discussed throughout the season.

 

[Kontradiction]

Given the depth they now have at corner, the athleticism they just drafted at LB, and the moves they made up front, hopefully we won't have to see game plans trotted out like they did in the Super Bowl (my thoughts on that are in another thread) or in Week 1 where Jordan Richards was being used as an edge-setting LB.

 

[VectorPrime]

What made the SB look even worse was the starting CB standing on the sidelines instead of playing in the game, but the specific numbers of the SB are irrelevant. The defense was not as good as the scoring rank indicated, and that was something we discussed throughout the season.

But god forbid if you ever expressed concerns that maybe the defense wasn’t awesome. “POINTS ARE ALL THAT MATTERS STATS ARE FOR LOSERS”

 

[Nunchucks]

Given the depth they now have at corner, the athleticism they just drafted at LB, and the moves they made up front, hopefully we won't have to see game plans trotted out like they did in the Super Bowl (my thoughts on that are in another thread) or in Week 1 where Jordan Richards was being used as an edge-setting LB.

I would just change "athleticism they drafted at LB" to depth they drafted at LB. I am unsure if we will see any of those guys play unless there is an injury.

I hope I am wrong.

 

[Nunchucks]

But god forbid if you ever expressed concerns that maybe the defense wasn’t awesome. “POINTS ARE ALL THAT MATTERS STATS ARE FOR LOSERS”

A few people were really giving those of us who were skeptical a lot of grief.

 

[VectorPrime]

A few people were really giving those of us who were skeptical a lot of grief.

What was ironic was that at the start of the year when the defense was giving up a historical amount of points the same exact people who forever claimed that points were the only stat that mattered suddenly began preaching about how points don’t matter, only wins and losses.

 

[varjao]

This league have been starving for quality QB play in the past decade and the Pats capitalized on it. Now there is a new generation coming and some quality veteran QB's settling in good teams.

If you don't put pressure on the QB in this pass happy league you're gonna suffer.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Even in SB 51 the D struggled. To me there need to be more difference makers up front other than Hightower. If you have 2-3 pro bowlers in the front 7 it’ll make a huge difference.

 

[Deus Irae]

But god forbid if you ever expressed concerns that maybe the defense wasn’t awesome. “POINTS ARE ALL THAT MATTERS STATS ARE FOR LOSERS”

The defense wasn't as good as the Pollyannas were insisting, and it wasn't as bad as the Eeyores were insisting. The stats were misleading on both sides. What happens, though, is that the data starts getting used as if it's definitive, when it's not. That's why I don't cite to stats nearly as often as I used to. People who remember my early days here could probably tell you how much I used to use the stats.

 

[Hyped]

I'll be going back and re-watching the entire 2017 season in June-July after the mini-camps like I do every year.

I'll take notes while watching then....particularly the number of missed tackles in the Superbowl which were uncharacteristic.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The Patriots gave up 538 yards and 41 points in the Super Bowl. Just horrific numbers any way you slice it. And that's for sure colored how we view the defense moving forward.

It seemed like a replay from the first four weeks of the year. During those four weeks, the Patriots fielded the worst defense in history, yielding an average of 457 yards and 32 points a game. Just atrocious. So in the Super Bowl, they were WORSE than they were during this historically awful four-game stretch.

But it's more than that. Without looking it up, can you all guess how many times since 2001 the Patriots have given up 41+ points and 530+ yards in a game?

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

The answer is ONE. They've played 309 regular and post season games in those 17 years (an average of more than 18 games a year - think about that...they AVERAGE two playoff games a year!), and in those 309 games, they've allowed 41+ points and 530+ yards TWO TIMES.

The other time? The first game of the 2017 season, against KC, where they allowed 537 yards and 42 points. So the 2017 season was bookended by the two worst defensive performances in the BB/TB era. Incredible.

They've had some other bad games of course, but nothing quite like these two. Here are the other games during this 17 year period where they've been kind of close to as bad:

2014 vs KC - 41 points, 443 yards
2012 vs SF - 41 points, 388 yards
2009 vs NO - 38 points, 480 yards
2008 vs Mia - 38 points, 461 yards
2007 vs Ind - 38 points, 455 yards (AFCCG)
2005 vs SD - 41 points, 431 yards
2005 vs Ind - 40 points, 453 yards

But none of those are as bad as the two 2017 games. So I don't think it's remotely fair to say that the SB represents the true level of this Patriots' defense. They're not a top 5 defense, but they're not CLOSE to this bad. So our lasting memory of the 2017 team is the Super Bowl defense, but it really was a terrible statistical outlier and should not remotely be the gauge by which we evaluate their true level.

What made the SB look even worse was the starting CB standing on the sidelines instead of playing in the game, but the specific numbers of the SB are irrelevant. The defense was not as good as the scoring rank indicated, and that was something we discussed throughout the season.

Corrected post: Butler was not benched against KC.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Given the depth they now have at corner, the athleticism they just drafted at LB, and the moves they made up front, hopefully we won't have to see game plans trotted out like they did in the Super Bowl (my thoughts on that are in another thread) or in Week 1 where Jordan Richards was being used as an edge-setting LB.

I don't ever want to see Jordan Richards on defense ever again. Why is it every time he's on the field we see the back of his jersey? That's a rhetorical question. And I think Eric Reid would be a great piece to what BB likes to do with his safeties. Unfortunately, his kneeling ruined his career and would've been signed a long time ago had he not done that crap.

I would just change "athleticism they drafted at LB" to depth they drafted at LB. I am unsure if we will see any of those guys play unless there is an injury.

I hope I am wrong.

You can't even call it depth yet as well. Even the media gets the definition of what "depth" actually means wrong. It means when you have a back up player that isn't that much of a drop off or actually end up being better than the actual starter. I always get a kick out of Rotoworld and other media outlets when they say a team "Bolsters their depth" with a journeyman/JAG player. We don't know yet what the Pats have with the LB's they drafted.

 

[IllegalContact]

the defense sucks......they show up occaisionally and against the QB dregs of the league

due to a lack of retention and investment, can't expect much better

 

[oldrover]

https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

 

[Patstopia]

You may recall that Butler was also benched in game 1 vs. KC; in addition, Michael Lombardi said the Eagles would be a horrible matchup for the Patriots because they were a lot like the Chiefs. For whatever reason, in both games the Patriots defense was as bad as possible, and Butler was on the bench with BB believing they would somehow be worse with him on the field.

I don't recall Butler being benched. Also the stat sheet for the game shows Butler with 4 solo tackles. So either I am missing something or he played at least part of the game.