The SB defense - statistical anomaly

[brdmaverick]

The worst part was that this came against a Super Bowl team that didn't meet the standards of "offensive juggernaut" that you often find in a Super Bowl.

 

[maineman209]

The worst part was that this came against a Super Bowl team that didn't meet the standards of "offensive juggernaut" that you often find in a Super Bowl.

The Eagles? Umm ... not exactly a creampuff offense.

They were 3rd in points and 7th in yards. They put up 457 points in the regular season, a couple points better than the Pats' own 5-year average.

I think you may be mis-remembering about "offensive juggernauts" in the SB. Of the 22 participating teams in the past 11 SB, only 7 have scored more regular-season points than the 2017 Eagles' 457 ... and 4 of those were the Pats themselves ... 589 in 2007, 513 in 2011, 468 in 2014, and 458 in 2017.


2017: PHL, 457 d. Pats, *458
2016: Pats, 441 d. ATL, *540
2015: DEN, 355 d. CAR, *500
2014: Pats, *468 d. SEA, 394
2013: SEA, 417 d. DEN, *606
2012: BAL, 398 d. SFO, 397
2011: NYG, 394 d. Pats, *513
2010: GBY, 388 d. PIT, 355
2009: NOL, *510 d. IND, 416
2008: PIT, 347 d. ARZ, 427
2007: NYG, 373 d. Pats, *589
* = more than 457 regular season points

 

[VectorPrime]

The Eagles? Umm ... not exactly a creampuff offense.

They were 3rd in points and 7th in yards. They put up 457 points in the regular season, a couple points better than the Pats' own 5-year average.

I think you may be mis-remembering about "offensive juggernauts" in the SB. Of the 22 participating teams in the past 11 SB, only 7 have scored more regular-season points than the 2017 Eagles' 457 ... and 4 of those were the Pats themselves ... 589 in 2007, 513 in 2011, 468 in 2014, and 458 in 2017.


2017: PHL, 457 d. Pats, *458
2016: Pats, 441 d. ATL, *540
2015: DEN, 355 d. CAR, *500
2014: Pats, *468 d. SEA, 394
2013: SEA, 417 d. DEN, *606
2012: BAL, 398 d. SFO, 397
2011: NYG, 394 d. Pats, *513
2010: GBY, 388 d. PIT, 355
2009: NOL, *510 d. IND, 416
2008: PIT, 347 d. ARZ, 427
2007: NYG, 373 d. Pats, *589
* = more than 457 regular season points

And how many of those points were scored by Wentz and not Nick freaking Foles?

 

[pazrul72]

And how many of those points were scored by Wentz and not Nick freaking Foles?

Here's the problem with that take, clearly you have not watched a replay, because credit where credit is due Foles was dropping dimes. He did not play like a back up he made all the throws he had to and many of them were the beautiful indefensible sort. Foles earned that MVP. I would be much angrier at the defense if they had played like they did against KC where guys were running wide open, blown coverages left and right, clear miscommunication all over the field. While the stats certainly suggest it was that bad if you watch the game with a critical eye the coverage was actually quite good. The throws were better and while it hurts because they were this close to winning a sixth while Butler was on the bench it wasn't the secondary being beaten like a mule by a back up that was the main culprit. IMO it was the eagles ability to run at will that was the real nail in the coffin. I would have given MVP to the whole eagles offensive line. We needed Branch and Hightower badly because everyone else was overpowered and looked like they were playing on rollarskates.

 

[maineman209]

And how many of those points were scored by Wentz and not Nick freaking Foles?

35 in the regular season

Foles stats for six games as the starter (last 3 regular season and 3 playoff games):

124/193 (64.3%) ... 1410 yards (7.31 y/a) .. *11 TDs .. 3 INT .. Won 5/ Lost 1

* Plus his receiving TD.

 

[DW Toys]

I would just change "athleticism they drafted at LB" to depth they drafted at LB. I am unsure if we will see any of those guys play unless there is an injury.

I hope I am wrong.

Agree Cousin. No impact players at all. Can't understand the thought process and yes, BB and the Pats have a mediocre Draft record as the stats justify.

Pats Draft grades "C-"

Pats Trades "B"

Pats UDFA "A-"

Pats off street pick ups "B+"

Pats F.A. signing decisions "B"

Last 4 Draft Classes.
2014
I starter

2015
3 Starters
2 JAGS
2 Incomplete
1 Awful (shouldn't even make JAG list)

2016
1 Starter
3 Back ups
1 Incomplete

2017
1 Back Up
2 Incomplete

Summary:
since 2014 Draft:
5 Starters (one is our LS)
4 Back Ups
2 JAGS
5 incomplete VIA injury
The rest are gone or out of the League

That is a 17% success record for starter caliber players
"0" Pro Bowlers


The good news is the head of scouting I believe has moved on.
If BB did not like this Draft he should have Drafted the BPA instead of reaching for UDFA to Draft.
DW Toys

 

[luuked]

But god forbid if you ever expressed concerns that maybe the defense wasn’t awesome. “POINTS ARE ALL THAT MATTERS STATS ARE FOR LOSERS”

Jesus this garbage again.

We had a defense that was somewhere between good and above average for about 80% of last year. It got ripped apart by the two teams that were the worst possible matchup in terms of personnel. What a shocking turn of events. How did they look against teams like the Falcons who were a better matchup with the way they are running their offense ?

How did the "amazing" Vikings defense look against the Eagles offense ? Yeah..

Go watch the tape instead of jerking off to stats but I guess once again that would be too much effort and require an understanding of basic football schemes.

 

[brdmaverick]

Here's the problem with that take, clearly you have not watched a replay, because credit where credit is due Foles was dropping dimes. He did not play like a back up he made all the throws he had to and many of them were the beautiful indefensible sort. Foles earned that MVP.

I know this was in a response to someone else, I was not saying that Foles did not play well. In fact, I agree that he stepped up to the plate and played tremendously. Sure, some backups are guys who are just 'waiting their turn' ala Jimmy G., but Foles was 'the other kind'. He seemed to be a journeyman who was good enough for spot duty but not exactly the guy you want to start your season counting on. That gave some fans (like myself) the false hope that our defense would be able to scheme and contain him. After all, an average qb must have weaknesses or flaws.

But to his credit, he played lights out. I'll fully concede that, but the fact still remains that we lost to a backup (especially one who was forced into action late in the season).

 

[brdmaverick]

Go watch the tape instead of jerking off to stats but I guess once again that would be too much effort and require an understanding of basic football schemes.

Seriously, not trying to be a contrarian, b/c I agree with most of what you are saying, but I think it's safe to say the Pats D looked like garbage both in the stats and on tape in the Super Bowl.

 

[neuronet]

Good luck being on to 2018 when your superstar players are publiclly questioning your coaching decisions.

That's not how the Patriots work.

 

[maineman209]

I know this was in a response to someone else, I was not saying that Foles did not play well. In fact, I agree that he stepped up to the plate and played tremendously. Sure, some backups are guys who are just 'waiting their turn' ala Jimmy G., but Foles was 'the other kind'. He seemed to be a journeyman who was good enough for spot duty but not exactly the guy you want to start your season counting on. That gave some fans (like myself) the false hope that our defense would be able to scheme and contain him. After all, an average qb must have weaknesses or flaws.

But to his credit, he played lights out. I'll fully concede that, but the fact still remains that we lost to a backup (especially one who was forced into action late in the season).

That's the thing. Foles isn't merely a "journeyman backup" like, say, Matt Cassell or even John Kitna. And, he fits the Philly offense perfectly. He went 5-1 in his six starts in 2017, including the three playoff games. His only loss was in week-17, when they were resting some of their top guys.

 

[pazrul72]

I know this was in a response to someone else, I was not saying that Foles did not play well. In fact, I agree that he stepped up to the plate and played tremendously. Sure, some backups are guys who are just 'waiting their turn' ala Jimmy G., but Foles was 'the other kind'. He seemed to be a journeyman who was good enough for spot duty but not exactly the guy you want to start your season counting on. That gave some fans (like myself) the false hope that our defense would be able to scheme and contain him. After all, an average qb must have weaknesses or flaws.

But to his credit, he played lights out. I'll fully concede that, but the fact still remains that we lost to a backup (especially one who was forced into action late in the season).

I disagree entirely that he is "the other kind" I forget the exact season but Foles had a crazy TD:Int ratio like 27-2. That does not happen if you are just a JAG. Granted the top 5 QB's do that year in and year out and that's why they are the best, hell Collin kapernick looked like a franchise qb for a couple years, but you can not just be a journey man qb and put up those kind of stats. My point is saying the pats lost to just a back up is dismissing one hell of a performance and that' not fair to Foles or our DB's who played pretty well themselves.

 

[NormZauchin]

New England defenses have often struggled against backup QBs and rookies making their first or second start. I have always figured that Belichick just doesn't have enough tape on them to come up with an effective defense, given that he does not sell out on pressuring the quarterback. The Dec., 2010, Green Bay game in which backup Matt Flynn was 24 for 37, and threw for 251 yards, three TDs, one interception with a 100.2 QB rating was symptomatic.

 

[Deus Irae]

I disagree entirely that he is "the other kind" I forget the exact season but Foles had a crazy TD:Int ratio like 27-2. That does not happen if you are just a JAG. Granted the top 5 QB's do that year in and year out and that's why they are the best, hell Collin kapernick looked like a franchise qb for a couple years, but you can not just be a journey man qb and put up those kind of stats. My point is saying the pats lost to just a back up is dismissing one hell of a performance and that' not fair to Foles or our DB's who played pretty well themselves.

Foles had one good year, while the league adapted to Chip Kelly's system. Outside of that, he's been pretty much the picture boy for "journeyman JAG".

 

[pazrul72]

Foles had one good year, while the league adapted to Chip Kelly's system. Outside of that, he's been pretty much the picture boy for "journeyman JAG".

Brian Hoyer would be my definition of journeyman JAG he's good enough to keep the ship afloat for 2-4 games but if he is starting more then that 8-8 is probably the best season you are gonna get. Nick Foles has demonstrated that when he is on he is FAR more then that. We are talking a QB with the best TD:Int ratio in a single season ever and a SB MVP. The problem he has run into is consistency. To be more then just a back up you have to be on like that season after season. **** Flacco translated a 4 game run for the ages into a mega millions franchise breaking deal so I understand there have been crap QB's that can get hot for a short time. I am just saying calling him nothing but a back up is disingenuous to Foles peak abilities and that he did have the game of his career. It's not like that year Payton won the MVP against the bears doing squat. It sounds like it's easier to say the defense played like dogshit and once again let some scrub backup light them up then to graciously acknowedge the other guy is talented and gets paid too. IMO the secondary played well in the SB but Foles played lights out and made them look bad. Alex Smith week one went up against a dogshit defense. Big difference in the miscommunication, wide open uncovered receivers, and massive chuck plays given up versus good coverage that just got beat where they had to earn every yard. How many times did the eagles have to go for it on 4th down or got 11 yards on a 3rd and 10? Frustrating as hell to watch no doubt but not dogshit D.

 

[Deus Irae]

Brian Hoyer would be my definition of journeyman JAG he's good enough to keep the ship afloat for 2-4 games but if he is starting more then that 8-8 is probably the best season you are gonna get. Nick Foles has demonstrated that when he is on he is FAR more then that. We are talking a QB with the best TD:Int ratio in a single season ever and a SB MVP. The problem he has run into is consistency. To be more then just a back up you have to be on like that season after season. **** Flacco translated a 4 game run for the ages into a mega millions franchise breaking deal so I understand there have been crap QB's that can get hot for a short time. I am just saying calling him nothing but a back up is disingenuous to Foles peak abilities and that he did have the game of his career. It's not like that year Payton won the MVP against the bears doing squat. It sounds like it's easier to say the defense played like dogshit and once again let some scrub backup light them up then to graciously acknowedge the other guy is talented and gets paid too. IMO the secondary played well in the SB but Foles played lights out and made them look bad. Alex Smith week one went up against a dogshit defense. Big difference in the miscommunication, wide open uncovered receivers, and massive chuck plays given up versus good coverage that just got beat where they had to earn every yard. How many times did the eagles have to go for it on 4th down or got 11 yards on a 3rd and 10? Frustrating as hell to watch no doubt but not dogshit D.

If you take out that one outlier season, Foles picture would be right by the "Journeyman JAG" definition.

In the 4 years since that one season, Foles has

Played on 4 different teams (Eagles, Rams, Chiefs, Eagles)
Put up QB ratings of 81.4, 69, 105.9 (threw passes in just 2 games), and 79.5, in 8,11,3 and 7 game appearances.

 

[pazrul72]

If you take out that one outlier season, Foles picture would be right by the "Journeyman JAG" definition.

In the 4 years since that one season, Foles has

Played on 4 different teams (Eagles, Rams, Chiefs, Eagles)
Put up QB ratings of 81.4, 69, 105.9 (threw passes in just 2 games), and 79.5, in 8,11,3 and 7 game appearances.

I may be confusing my posters so my apologies if I am but aren't you a you are what you have done kind of guy? The stats are the stats good bad and indifferent? You can't say well throw out his best season and he is crap. Peak Foles is a top 5 QB in the league. His problem has not been ability but playing at his best or near best longer then a couple games at a time. We can agree to disagree on the definition of journeyman but Foles is not mine, his peak is too good.

 

[Deus Irae]

You can't say well throw out his best season and he is crap.

First, I didn't say he was crap. I noted that he's been a journeyman JAG outside of the one outlier season, and that's what he's been.

Second, of course I can throw out his best season when it's an obvious outlier based upon a fluke transition season. I can throw it out the same way I can throw out Miami's win against the Patriots in Sept. 21, 2008, and that entire Dolphins season, as an aberration brought about by the inclusion of the Wildcat, with its very temporary success.

6-10
1-15
11-5
7-9
7-9
6-10
7-9

Peak Foles is a top 5 QB in the league.

OK, I didn't realize that you were either trolling or insane. My mistake. I'd been taking you seriously.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

This is becoming a dead horse around here but what’s the common denominator between the KC game and the Super Bowl?

Jordan Richards getting significant reps. When he is on the field, bad things happen.

 

[luuked]

Seriously, not trying to be a contrarian, b/c I agree with most of what you are saying, but I think it's safe to say the Pats D looked like garbage both in the stats and on tape in the Super Bowl.

I was talking about the overall season not just the SB. While the most important game of the season in the end the SB is just one of 19 games. And the only really bad games from the D last year were the season opener and season finale. Both to teams that were awful matchups.

In most other games they might have given up yards or points but come fourth quarter turned into solid units that considerably more often got the stop than gave up something.