Something nobody ever talks about when discussing red zone is where you are in the red zone to begin a series.
Having a first down close to the 10 yard line and needing all 10 yards to get the first down or a TD has an extremely poor conversion rate.
When a team gets in the red zone, I always look at it, and when Gronk went down at the 11 or whatever, I knew it was trouble. You'd actually almost rather have first and ten at the 20 than at the 11, as silly as that sounds. The field is too compressed and getting 10 yards is really hard.
The difference between first and goal at the 6 or inside and first and goal at the 10 is like 30 percentage points I think.