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teams that have won without a top-tier QB since 2001: Bucs, Giants
teams that have won without a top-tier defense since 2001: Colts
Looks to me like you can win it all without one, but you absolutely have to have at least one of the two, and are much better off if you have both (obviously).
It's also worth noting that, since the offense-favoring rule changes in 2004, we've had 1 team win without an elite defense and 1 team win without an elite QB. And the team without the elite QB won because he suddenly started playing like one. This year, they went out with a whimper in the playoffs, largely because Eli regressed back to what he really is.
What you have to realize, though, is how big of a role luck plays in determining who actually wins the SB. The Patriots had chance go in their favor many times from 2001 to 2004, and it showed. They were a miracle helmet catch/horrendously blown call from winning in 2007. So, rather than judging entire philosophies based on lucky bounces here and there, I'd rather look at the teams that, year in and year out, are in the running. The ones that are in the playoffs every year, in the conference championship games, going to Super Bowls.
Who fits that description this decade? The Pats, Steelers, and Colts. It's a short list, and I feel very comfortable saying that, in this decade, those three franchises are in a class of their own. All 3 have perennial all pros at QB. All three also have very good defenses. So, basically, you need your QB and your defense to both be, at the very least, very good.
Luckily for the Pats, they already have a great QB and a very good defense. With Brady, they're Super Bowl-caliber right now. With Cassel, they're in the class of the Ravens, Titans, and Giants. Cassel is a good QB, but he's not Brady, Peyton, or Roethlisberger by a long shot.
The Patriots already have a top-tier defense (go ahead and check the rankings). Even if you want to argue that they don't, trading away the best QB in the league so that you'll have a better chance at getting an even better D (but still without any guarantee) is still trading away a necessity that you already have so that you might be able to get another one. It just doesn't add up.
Actually, the Colts defense was playing good ball at the right time. Their defense handled the teams in the playoffs, although they were really bad during the regular season.
When the Patriots won in 2001, it was their defense which carried them.
The Steelers last Super Bowl was also won because of their defense. They won despite Big Ben in that game. This year, he is winning games for them, but they would not be there without that defense. Defense wins championships.
Everybody remembers the big three from the Dallas Cowboy's dynasty. I followed them closely back then, as I lived in Dallas. They had a great defense which is why they were so successful.
No one talks about the greatest offense ever in a Super Bowl. I'm not sure who that would be, tho, you could claim the Bears defense as the greatest with maybe Baltimore coming in second.
The Patriots will probably not win another Super Bowl unless they make some significant changes with their defense. How do you call them a top tier defense with those red zone numbers?