I just got done going over the Texans all 22 tape from this season. I was looking at it like a psychopath this past week. I have come to the conclusion that The Texans are the old Steelers. They do it differently, but essentially they are the same. After looking over the tape, breaking down the team, and understanding them well I can confidently say I think the Patriots will win by two scores.
While this game will be won with all three units, let's look first at how they matchup defensively. Houston begins and ends on offense with the outside zone. From that, they work the areas weak on a cover-2 (cover-2 is a stretch killer), and use a ton of levels concepts in the passing game. Thats why their tight ends are featured so often. The defense must enforce the edges of the defense by squeezing with the corners, and get upfield penetration from the ends to establish a second LOS and effectively clog the flow of the zone. They need good backside pursuit from the backside ends, and will get it from Jones and Ninkovich. Their corners are good run defenders, their ends are good pursuit players, their linebackers are excellent flow players. Inside, the Patriots will win every time. This team, on paper, is built to kill the zone run. A major area I will be watching is how well the linebackers can get recognition and get depth on passing plays to help negate the Houston levels concepts. Pay attention to Mayo and especially Spikes on passing plays. If they are getting good recognition and depth initially it will be a good indicator of how the game will establish itself early. If they can do this without allowing Johnson to make that one play that flips the field I think they will be able to contain that offense nicely.
Offensively, I think this is a game where McDaniels will borrow some O'Brien wham blocking stuff and use Hooman to fill in for Gronk. I think they will need to use this interior motion blocking to slow the rush and games that are certain to be played. I don't want Watt alone on the center or right guard, as he not only can win in the rush, but effectively steer the player to get into the passing lane. The thing that really impresses me about Watt is how well he reads the quarterback. He is so long that he can lockout and stare down the quarterback like a linebacker while engaged. It's really remarkable. He shuffles his feet incredibly well and is very smart about when to check his rush. Hahaha, remember when people were saying Cam Jordan was going to be a better player than Watt and laughing at Grid and I when we were saying he is a top-5 talent? Is that argument over? Towards the Steelers thing, they do what they do and do it well. They bring pressure, they play games, and they're good at generating pressure. That said, this team knows how to beat that defense. You spread them out and carve them up. The Patriots must find a way to win the hashes and outside without Gronk dictating the coverage moves inside. This is a huge game, and I hope Lloyd comes ready to play. I expect a lot of matchups to be exploited and moved around with motion and balance. It's critical that the Patriots find ways to get them to declare pre-snap and check accordingly. I think they will accomplish this easily.
I know it sounds overconfident, but the eye in the sky don't lie. I think Houston is an excellent team. They do what they do and they do it well. That being said, the matchup suits the Pats well, and while this will be a close game for a while I think ultimately the Patriots will pull away in the early 4th. Houston, at it's core is the old Steelers, and that model doesn't matchup well with gameplan teams.
